SMM News, March 25: In early trading, SHFE aluminum 2604 fluctuated downward, but was slightly higher than the previous trading day. Overall market buying sentiment was good, and sellers held prices firm as aluminum prices remained at relatively low levels. Later in the morning, SHFE aluminum 2604 fluctuated upward, with its center running higher than the previous trading day. Some sellers still did not quote prices, while some showed a notably stronger willingness to hold prices firm. Overall market buying sentiment was good. Today’s mainstream transaction prices were concentrated around the average price of the SHFE aluminum 04 contract to a premium of 10 yuan/mt. Today, the east China market shipment sentiment index was 2.64, up 0.01 WoW; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.42, up 0.02 WoW. Today, aluminum prices stopped falling and rebounded. Affected by the fear of further declines over the previous two days, traders and downstream processing enterprises in central China showed slightly improved buying sentiment today from the previous day, but overall transactions had not yet returned to a fully active state, and buyers tended to purchase at wider discounts. Ultimately, actual transaction prices in the central China market ranged from a discount of 20 yuan to a premium of 10 yuan against the central China price. Today, the central China market shipment sentiment index was 2.64, up 0.01 WoW; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.42, up 0.02 WoW. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption regions increased by 4,000 mt from the previous period today, with Guangdong being the main source of destocking. In the short term, aluminum ingot continued its post-Chinese New Year seasonal inventory buildup. Supported by bullish sentiment, premiums are expected to remain on a narrowing trend.

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China's copper foil (HS codes: 74101100, 74102190) imports were 7,133.71 mt in January 2026, up 15.77% YoY and down 0.69% MoM...

Spot prices of #1 copper cathode in North China against the front-month contract were reported at a discount of 110 yuan/mt to a discount of 50 yuan/mt today, unchanged from the previous trading day, while the average transaction price rose 1,635 yuan/mt from the previous trading day to 95,595 yuan/mt.

[Overnight, LME Aluminum and SHFE Aluminum Edged Up Slightly, but Aluminum Prices Faced Short-Term Pressure at High Levels] Continued destocking in LME inventory provided bottom support for LME aluminum, but amid tightening fund liquidity and profit-taking by bulls, upward momentum remained insufficient, and the backwardation structure weakened somewhat. China’s social inventory rose to a high for the same period in nearly five years, and the inventory buildup cycle had yet to end, with high inventory and weak spot fundamentals jointly weighing on upward momentum. The divergence between domestic and overseas drivers continued, the SHFE/LME price ratio kept weakening, and prices were mainly under pressure in the short term.

On March 25, the SMM average price of battery-grade nickel sulphate remained stable.

I. Coal-to-Hydrogen Shandong anthracite transaction range [1,680-1,680], with an average hydrogen cost of [1.61 yuan/m³] Shanxi anthracite transaction range [910-910], with an average hydrogen cost of [1.05 yuan/m³] Hebei anthracite transaction range [1,390-1,390], with an average hydrogen cost of [1.39 yuan/m³] Henan anthracite transaction range [980-980], with an average hydrogen cost of [1.06 yuan/m³] II. Natural Gas-to-Hydrogen Pearl River Delta natural gas transaction range [5,520-5,620], with an average hydrogen cost of [2.62 yuan/m³] Zhejiang natural gas transaction range [5,500-5,850], with an average hydrogen cost of [2.63 yuan/m³] Guangxi natural gas transaction range [5,180-5,610], with an average hydrogen cost of [2.5 yuan/m³] Eastern Guangdong natural gas transaction range [5,500-5,590], with an average hydrogen cost of [2.58 yuan/m³] Henan natural gas transaction range [4,720-4,890], with an average hydrogen cost of [2.31 yuan/m³] Hebei natural gas transaction range [4,720-5,080], with an average hydrogen cost of [2.33 yuan/m³] Hubei natural gas transaction range [4,980-5,350], with an average hydrogen cost of [2.44 yuan/m³] Guizhou natural gas transaction range [4,990-5,720], with an average hydrogen cost of [2.51 yuan/m³] Sichuan natural gas transaction range [4,825-5,125], with an average hydrogen cost of [2.38 yuan/m³] Shanxi natural gas transaction range [4,520-4,880], with an average hydrogen cost of [2.22 yuan/m³] Shandong natural gas transaction range [5,040-5,250], with an average hydrogen cost of [2.44 yuan/m³] Heilongjiang natural gas transaction range [4,810-5,060], with an average hydrogen cost of [2.34 yuan/m³] Inner Mongolia natural gas transaction range [4,560-4,800], with an average hydrogen cost of [2.18 yuan/m³] III. Propane-to-Hydrogen South China propylene oxide transaction range [7,280-7,370], with an average hydrogen cost of [4.11 yuan/m³] East China propylene oxide transaction range [7,100-7,310], with an average hydrogen cost of [4.05 yuan/m³] Northeast China propylene oxide transaction range [5,890-6,310], with an average hydrogen cost of [3.5 yuan/m³] Shandong propylene oxide transaction range [6,960-7,300], with an average hydrogen cost of [4.03 yuan/m³] IV. Hydrogen Production from Methanol The methanol transaction range in east China was [2,800-3,290], and the average hydrogen cost was [2.61 yuan/m³]. The methanol transaction range in central China was [2,780-2,990], and the average hydrogen cost was [2.54 yuan/m³]. The methanol transaction range in north China was [2,360-2,830], and the average hydrogen cost was [2.29 yuan/m³]. The methanol transaction range in south China was [3,310-3,390], and the average hydrogen cost was [2.8 yuan/m³]. The methanol transaction range in northwest China was [1,630-2,630], and the average hydrogen cost was [1.97 yuan/m³]. The methanol transaction range in southwest China was [2,770-3,020], and the average hydrogen cost was [2.55 yuan/m³]. The methanol transaction range in northeast China was [2,770-2,790], and the average hydrogen cost was [2.44 yuan/m³].

According to the latest customs data, in January 2026, China’s imports of copper-zinc alloy (brass) bars and rods were 2,050.01 mt in physical content, down 8.37% MoM and up 24.53% YoY. In February, China’s imports of copper-zinc alloy (brass) bars and rods were 1,344.87 mt in physical content, down 34.4% MoM and down 36.67% YoY, showing an overall sharp decline. Cumulative imports in January-February 2026 were 3,394.87, down 9.94% YoY cumulatively. (HS codes 74072111, 74072119, 74072190).

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Aluminum Prices Halted Their Decline, but Wait-and-See Sentiment Remained Unchanged; Rangebound Movement May Continue in the Short Term] Spot market, yesterday the overall ADC12 market continued to hold prices steady. Aluminum prices showed signs of halting their decline, but market sentiment recovered only limitedly, and enterprises generally chose to postpone price adjustments and mainly adopt a wait-and-see stance. Demand side, downstream orders did not improve significantly, and just-in-time procurement remained the main approach, with mediocre transaction performance. Against the backdrop of easing cost-side fluctuations and insufficient demand support, ADC12 prices may continue to fluctuate within a range and remain relatively stable in the short term, with relatively limited momentum for price adjustments. Further attention should still be paid to aluminum price trends and the recovery of end-use demand.

SMM, March 24: SHFE aluminum 2604 fluctuated downward in early trading, slightly higher than the previous trading day. Overall market buying sentiment was relatively good, and sellers held prices firm as aluminum prices remained at relatively low levels. Today’s mainstream transaction prices were concentrated at SHFE aluminum 04 contract +10 yuan/mt. Today, the east China market shipments sentiment index was 2.79, up 0.07 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 3.34, up 0.04 MoM. As aluminum prices extended their decline, traders in the central China market showed weak purchase sentiment. With the month-end settlement date approaching, suppliers made heavy shipments and showed limited willingness to hold prices firm. Downstream processing enterprises were wary of further price declines, with no expectation of large-scale stockpiling at low prices for now. Overall market purchase activity was sluggish, and prices showed a continued price collapse trend. Ultimately, actual transaction prices in the central China market were concentrated in the range from a premium of 20 yuan over the central China price to a discount of 20 yuan to the central China price. Today, the central China market shipments sentiment index was 2.63, flat MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.4, down 0.08 MoM. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption areas increased by 6,500 mt MoM today, with destocking mainly coming from Gongyi and Guangdong. In the short term, after the Chinese New Year, aluminum ingot inventory continued to see seasonal inventory buildup. Affected by bullish sentiment, premiums are expected to remain on a narrowing trend.

The operating rate of major copper cathode rod enterprises in China stood at 81.51% last week (March 13–March 19), marking the fourth consecutive week of MoM improvement since the Chinese New Year, with industry sentiment continuing to recover. The strong rebound in the operating rate in this round was mainly driven by two factors: first, the relatively weak operating rates of secondary copper rod enterprises, coupled with the price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap remaining at a relatively low level, significantly weakened the substitution effect between copper cathode and copper scrap, leaving more market room for copper cathode rod; second, improving orders for downstream wire and cable and enamelled wire boosted a faster drawdown in enterprises' finished product inventories. As copper prices broke above low-level support, downstream procurement sentiment continued to heat up, and new orders for copper cathode rod enterprises showed a pattern of concentrated volume release. Most enterprises reported that their production pace could no longer keep up with shipment progress, and some had already begun to proactively control the pace of taking orders to ensure contract fulfillment. From the downstream industry perspective, wire and cable as well as enamelled wire enterprises also benefited from the pullback in copper prices, with operating rates steadily rebounding, further boosting demand for copper rod. Inventory side, although the pullback in copper prices boosted enterprises' willingness to restock, constrained by limited room for capacity release, enterprises did not excessively stockpile on dips and mostly maintained normal production raw material reserves. Meanwhile, due to continued downstream pick-up of goods, enterprises' capacity was unable to fully match order demand, accelerating the drawdown of finished product inventories. Enterprises Raise Processing Fees and Increase Margin Requirements to Control Risks After copper prices pulled back sharply, downstream purchase willingness increased significantly, and order concentration rose markedly. To reasonably control the pace of taking orders, some enterprises urgently raised processing fees. At the same time, affected by the increased uncertainty in the pace of cargo pick-up caused by concentrated downstream order placement, as well as the continued decline in copper prices, enterprises became more concerned about the default risk of earlier high-priced orders, and some enterprises simultaneously increased margin ratios to strengthen risk control. Looking ahead, with copper prices rising at present, downstream procurement sentiment has clearly weakened. To ensure stable deliveries, copper cathode rod enterprises are expected to maintain relatively high operating loads. Although rigid demand is gradually being fully released, against the backdrop of low finished product inventories, enterprises will still maintain high operating rates to replenish inventory. Accordingly, SMM expects the operating rate of China's copper cathode rod enterprises to fluctuate at highs in March.