SMM, March 24: SHFE aluminum 2604 fluctuated downward in early trading, slightly higher than the previous trading day. Overall market buying sentiment was relatively good, and sellers held prices firm as aluminum prices remained at relatively low levels. Today’s mainstream transaction prices were concentrated at SHFE aluminum 04 contract +10 yuan/mt. Today, the east China market shipments sentiment index was 2.79, up 0.07 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 3.34, up 0.04 MoM. As aluminum prices extended their decline, traders in the central China market showed weak purchase sentiment. With the month-end settlement date approaching, suppliers made heavy shipments and showed limited willingness to hold prices firm. Downstream processing enterprises were wary of further price declines, with no expectation of large-scale stockpiling at low prices for now. Overall market purchase activity was sluggish, and prices showed a continued price collapse trend. Ultimately, actual transaction prices in the central China market were concentrated in the range from a premium of 20 yuan over the central China price to a discount of 20 yuan to the central China price. Today, the central China market shipments sentiment index was 2.63, flat MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.4, down 0.08 MoM. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption areas increased by 6,500 mt MoM today, with destocking mainly coming from Gongyi and Guangdong. In the short term, after the Chinese New Year, aluminum ingot inventory continued to see seasonal inventory buildup. Affected by bullish sentiment, premiums are expected to remain on a narrowing trend.

SMM News, March 23: In the morning session, SHFE aluminum 2604 fluctuated upward, while the price center fell sharply from the previous trading day. Affected by the decline in aluminum prices, overall buying sentiment increased today, prompting sellers to hold prices firm. Today’s mainstream transaction prices were concentrated at SHFE aluminum 04 contract +10 yuan/mt to +20 yuan/mt. Today, the east China market shipment sentiment index was 2.72, down 0.58 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 3.3, up 0.07 MoM. Today, aluminum prices extended their decline, and premiums in central China remained in positive territory. Traders’ willingness to purchase and stockpile was somewhat lower than in the previous two days. Although downstream processing enterprises showed some willingness to buy the dip, they still did not make large-scale concentrated purchases, and overall market purchase sentiment weakened somewhat. In the end, actual quotes and transaction prices in the central China market declined all the way, from a 50 yuan premium over the central China price before the opening to near parity with the central China price, while suppliers showed no obvious willingness to hold prices firm. Today, the central China market shipment sentiment index was 2.63, up 0.01 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.48, down 0.03 MoM. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption regions increased by 8,000 mt MoM today, with destocking mainly coming from Wuxi and Guangdong. In the short term, aluminum ingot inventory continued its post-Chinese New Year seasonal buildup. Affected by bullish sentiment, premiums are expected to maintain a narrowing trend.

SMM News, March 23: Aluminum ingot: On March 23, SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) was reported at 23,410, down 650, at a discount of 175 against the current-month contract, narrowing by 5 (unit: yuan/mt). After plunging in the night session, the SHFE aluminum 04 contract rebounded slightly. Affected by aluminum prices remaining in the doldrums, the South China spot market stayed barely firm, while buyers' overall purchasing sentiment today was overall satisfactory. Current prices were significantly below the monthly average price, and sellers generally held prices firm, but with inventory buildup over the weekend and ample circulating supply, overall price support was clearly constrained by shipment pressure. Today, mainstream transaction prices in the market were mainly concentrated at premiums of -180 yuan/mt to -170 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum 04 contract.

According to the latest data disclosed by the General Administration of Customs, China’s imported copper cathode market, while maintaining the 2025 baseline, is facing dual challenges: the continued rise in the share of EQ copper and whether global supply will continue to be diverted. China’s cumulative copper cathode imports in January-February 2026 totaled 356,900 mt, down 33.13% YoY.

Jan-Feb 2026 China magnesium exports reached 72.7kt, up 3.4kt YoY. Magnesium alloy led with +33.1% YoY, orders booked through April. Magnesium ingot fell 6.8% due to weak European demand, while powder grew 10.3%. However, US-Israel conflict disrupted Middle East aluminum plants, halting regional magnesium orders and pressuring Q2 outlook despite the strong start.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Futures Extended Losses, While Trading Sentiment Recovered Slightly] Market quotes generally moved lower last Friday, with the SMM ADC12 price down 300 yuan/mt to 25,000 yuan/mt. Driven by the price pullback and weekend restocking demand, market trading sentiment recovered somewhat from the previous period, and downstream purchase willingness to buy the dip strengthened, improving transactions for some enterprises. However, overall demand still mainly reflected rigid demand, end-users remained sensitive to price fluctuations, and the pace of restocking stayed cautious. In the short term, ADC12 prices are expected to remain in the doldrums. The pattern of demand being under pressure is unlikely to change in the short term; downstream acceptance of high prices is limited, and coupled with the weak trend in primary aluminum weighing on market sentiment, prices struggled to rise. But with cost support, downside room is also limited. Going forward, close attention should be paid to the trend in primary aluminum and the pace of downstream consumption release.

[SMM Analysis:Rare Earth Ore Imports Surge in Early 2026, Exceeding Demand and Causing Surplus] According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, from January to February 2026, China’s imports of mixed rare earth carbonate were about 3,013.7 mt, up 321% YoY. Over the same period, imports of unlisted rare earth oxides were about 12,860.4 mt, also posting a sharp increase of 209% YoY.

On the morning of March 10, the unveiling ceremony and construction launch meeting for the Shanghai Key Laboratory of Efficient Green Fuel Synthesis Systems Engineering (Preparatory) were successfully held at Shanghai Boiler Works Co., Ltd. Xuan Fuzhen, President of East China University of Science and Technology, and Wu Lei, Party Secretary and Chairman of Shanghai Electric Group, jointly unveiled the laboratory, marking the official entry of the key laboratory’s development into a new stage of substantive progress. Zheng Guanghong, Second-Level Inspector of the Shanghai Municipal Science and Technology Commission, witnessed the ceremony on site. Led by Shanghai Boiler Works Co., Ltd. and jointly established with East China University of Science and Technology, the laboratory focuses on tackling critical “bottleneck” technological challenges in the application field of efficient synthesis of green fuels such as green methanol, green ammonia, and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). It has precisely laid out three core research directions: efficient synthesis of diversified green fuels, high-efficiency clean power equipment, and AI + digital twin flexible regulation and control. It is committed to building a full-chain innovation system spanning basic R&D, pilot-scale verification, and industrialisation, thereby supporting breakthroughs in green fuel technologies and their industrial application. Wu Lei, Party Secretary and Chairman of Shanghai Electric Group, stated at the event that the high-standard development of the key laboratory for green fuels is an important practice for Shanghai Electric in implementing the national development strategy for new quality productive forces in the energy sector and promoting the deep integration of green fuel technological innovation with industry. Shanghai Electric will use the laboratory’s development as an important lever, providing comprehensive support in policy, resources, funding, and other aspects, fully integrating high-quality internal and external resources, and making every effort to advance technological research, professional talent cultivation, and the commercialisation of scientific research achievements, thereby contributing wisdom and strength to the high-quality development of China’s green fuel industry. Xuan Fuzhen, President of East China University of Science and Technology, pointed out that the university will give full play to its disciplinary strengths, carry out close and pragmatic cooperation with Shanghai Electric, vigorously promote the deep integration of industry, academia, and research, focus on core challenges in green fuel synthesis technologies and equipment, strive to achieve major technological breakthroughs, and work together to build a benchmark for collaborative innovation among industry, academia, and research. Jin Xiaolong, Member of the Party Committee and Vice President of Shanghai Electric Group, Vice President Qiu Jiayou, and relevant leaders from the Shanghai Municipal Science and Technology Commission, East China University of Science and Technology, and Shanghai Electric Power Station Group attended the event.

After the Chinese New Year holiday, China’s aluminum market continued to see an inventory buildup, with social inventory rising लगातार and repeatedly hitting highs for recent years. However, as the traditional peak consumption season gradually got underway, downstream pickup enthusiasm rebounded, pressure from aluminum ingot backlogs eased significantly, and the pace of inventory buildup has already shown signs of slowing...

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