Strait of Hormuz disruptions and Iran tensions are driving up aluminum prices and premiums. Aluminium Bahrain and Qatalum have cut output, while feedstock is tight. Rerouting via Port of Sohar or Saudi ports raises costs and delays. Buyers are turning to China, India, Russia, Canada, and scrap to offset risk. Prolonged disruption could reduce Middle East market share and reprice it as higher-risk supply.

SMM News, March 24: Aluminum ingot: On March 24, SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) was reported at 23,440, up 30, at a discount of 170 against the current-month contract, narrowing by 5 (unit: yuan/mt) The SHFE aluminum 04 contract generally stabilized today. Supported by aluminum prices halting their decline and edging up slightly, the South China spot market stabilized and improved, and buyers generally showed good purchasing sentiment today. Spot prices were significantly below the monthly average price, and sellers firmly held prices firm. However, amid weekend inventory buildup and ample circulating cargo, overall support for firm prices was clearly constrained under high inventory pressure. Mainstream transaction prices in the market today were concentrated at premiums of -175 yuan/mt to -165 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum 04 contract.

SMM, March 24: SHFE aluminum 2604 fluctuated downward in early trading, slightly higher than the previous trading day. Overall market buying sentiment was relatively good, and sellers held prices firm as aluminum prices remained at relatively low levels. Today’s mainstream transaction prices were concentrated at SHFE aluminum 04 contract +10 yuan/mt. Today, the east China market shipments sentiment index was 2.79, up 0.07 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 3.34, up 0.04 MoM. As aluminum prices extended their decline, traders in the central China market showed weak purchase sentiment. With the month-end settlement date approaching, suppliers made heavy shipments and showed limited willingness to hold prices firm. Downstream processing enterprises were wary of further price declines, with no expectation of large-scale stockpiling at low prices for now. Overall market purchase activity was sluggish, and prices showed a continued price collapse trend. Ultimately, actual transaction prices in the central China market were concentrated in the range from a premium of 20 yuan over the central China price to a discount of 20 yuan to the central China price. Today, the central China market shipments sentiment index was 2.63, flat MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.4, down 0.08 MoM. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption areas increased by 6,500 mt MoM today, with destocking mainly coming from Gongyi and Guangdong. In the short term, after the Chinese New Year, aluminum ingot inventory continued to see seasonal inventory buildup. Affected by bullish sentiment, premiums are expected to remain on a narrowing trend.

As of March 24, titanium dioxide prices continued to rise, with the SMM index up 4.6% since early 2026. Two rounds of price hikes were issued in March amid low inventories. Strong exports and production cuts supported gains, though sustainability post-peak season remains uncertain, hinging on downstream acceptance.

Jan-Feb 2026 China magnesium exports reached 72.7kt, up 3.4kt YoY. Magnesium alloy led with +33.1% YoY, orders booked through April. Magnesium ingot fell 6.8% due to weak European demand, while powder grew 10.3%. However, US-Israel conflict disrupted Middle East aluminum plants, halting regional magnesium orders and pressuring Q2 outlook despite the strong start.

As supply and demand for construction steel were not fully matched across different markets, regional supply-demand mismatches created price differentiation, which in turn drove the cross-regional circulation of steel resources. When the regional price spread gradient was appropriate, regions with surplus construction steel capacity and production often shipped excess resources out, thereby rebalancing construction steel resources across regions.

According to SMM data, the operating rate of copper pipe & tube enterprises was 58.74% in February, down 14.13 percentage points MoM and down 11.54 percentage points YoY. February was affected by the Chinese New Year holiday. Leading enterprises maintained stable production and supply, with production showing strong resilience, basically sustaining “no holiday shutdowns” or only 0–3 days , and ensuring normal operations during the Chinese New Year period through shift rotations on production lines. Although orders saw slight fluctuations of 2%–10%, they remained overall under control. However, small and medium-sized enterprises performed poorly in February, dragging down the overall operating rate. Looking ahead to March, the operating rate of copper pipe & tube enterprises is expected to be 77.88%, up 19.14 percentage points MoM and down 7.35 percentage points YoY. The March production schedule of key air-conditioner enterprises fell 9.3% YoY from last year, in line with the YoY decline trend in copper pipe & tube operating rates. However, most copper pipe & tube enterprises said March production is expected to be better than expectations, and there are concerns over advance production and stockpiling. Worth noting is that R&D on high-performance alloy copper tubes by China’s leading enterprises will further reduce copper consumption in air conditioners, and most other enterprises are currently developing this type of technology as well. This has also increased orders for those domestic copper pipe & tube enterprises that already possess such technology, diluting the market share of other enterprises. In addition, the conflict in the Middle East reduced some home appliance export orders to the region, and the April production schedules of some domestic air-conditioner enterprises with relatively high market share exposure there are expected to decline.

According to the latest data from China Customs, China imported a total of 5,561 mt in metal content of nickel sulphate in February 2026, down 20% MoM and up 54% YoY. China exported 33 mt in metal content of nickel sulphate, down 74% MoM and down 75% YoY. China's net imports of nickel sulphate were 5,528 mt in metal content in February 2026, down 19% MoM and up 59% YoY. By country, exports to Japan pulled back this month, dragging down total exports; on the import side, imports from Indonesia and other countries also pulled back this month. Although imports from Finland increased, total imports still declined. Net imports of nickel salts also pulled back this month, broadly in line with last month's expectations.

[SMM Analysis:Rare Earth Ore Imports Surge in Early 2026, Exceeding Demand and Causing Surplus] According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, from January to February 2026, China’s imports of mixed rare earth carbonate were about 3,013.7 mt, up 321% YoY. Over the same period, imports of unlisted rare earth oxides were about 12,860.4 mt, also posting a sharp increase of 209% YoY.

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China’s copper plate/sheet and strip exports were 13,233.73 mt in January 2026, up 30.59% MoM and up 27.53% YoY; in February, exports were 8,395.28 mt, down 36.56% MoM and up 11.87% YoY. In January-February, China’s cumulative copper plate/sheet and strip exports reached 21,629.01 mt, up 20.96% YoY cumulatively. In January-February 2026, China’s copper plate/sheet and strip exports rose 20.96% YoY, maintaining overall steady growth, with exports covering 120 countries and regions. In terms of export pattern, Vietnam and South Korea ranked first and second, with export volumes of 2,549 mt and 2,542 mt, up 13.6% YoY and 42.5% YoY, respectively. India maintained steady growth and ranked third with exports of 1,898 mt, with the YoY growth rate reaching 29.6%; Taiwan, China and Japan followed, with export volumes of 1,864 mt and 1,375 mt, respectively. Among them, Taiwan, China was up 5.4% YoY, while Japan was the only major destination market to post a YoY decline, down 16.7%. In terms of growth rates, emerging markets were particularly outstanding: Mexico’s YoY growth rate reached as high as 149.0%, with exports surging from 304 mt to 757 mt, making it the most prominent growth market. Malaysia, Thailand, and Germany also performed strongly, with YoY growth rates of 47.0%, 47.2%, and 44.6%, respectively, all achieving growth of more than 40%. The structure of China’s copper plate/sheet and strip export trade modes continued the characteristics seen in the previous period. Customs data showed that in January-February, processing trade with imported materials remained the core export mode, with exports of 14,335 mt, accounting for 66.3% and firmly maintaining its dominant position; Processing and Assembling exports were 3,655 mt, accounting for 16.9%; Ordinary Trade exports were 2,182 mt, accounting for 10.1%; and other trade modes totaled 1,458 mt, accounting for 6.7%. In terms of detailed product structure, in January-February 2026, China’s copper plate/sheet and strip exports were still dominated by copper strip, with exports of 14,151 mt, accounting for 65% and up 23.8% YoY, serving as the core driver boosting overall exports. Bronze strip performed strongly, with a YoY growth rate of 34.8%, the fastest among major categories; cupronickel strip, brass strip, and other categories also achieved YoY growth, with the overall structure remaining stable and growth momentum abundant. (HS code 74091110,74091190,74091900,74092100,74092900,74093100,74093900,74094000,74099000)