[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Aluminum Prices Halted Their Decline, but Wait-and-See Sentiment Remained Unchanged; Rangebound Movement May Continue in the Short Term] Spot market, yesterday the overall ADC12 market continued to hold prices steady. Aluminum prices showed signs of halting their decline, but market sentiment recovered only limitedly, and enterprises generally chose to postpone price adjustments and mainly adopt a wait-and-see stance. Demand side, downstream orders did not improve significantly, and just-in-time procurement remained the main approach, with mediocre transaction performance. Against the backdrop of easing cost-side fluctuations and insufficient demand support, ADC12 prices may continue to fluctuate within a range and remain relatively stable in the short term, with relatively limited momentum for price adjustments. Further attention should still be paid to aluminum price trends and the recovery of end-use demand.

[Overnight, LME Aluminum and SHFE Aluminum Edged Up Slightly, but Aluminum Prices Faced Short-Term Pressure at High Levels] Continued destocking in LME inventory provided bottom support for LME aluminum, but amid tightening fund liquidity and profit-taking by bulls, upward momentum remained insufficient, and the backwardation structure weakened somewhat. China’s social inventory rose to a high for the same period in nearly five years, and the inventory buildup cycle had yet to end, with high inventory and weak spot fundamentals jointly weighing on upward momentum. The divergence between domestic and overseas drivers continued, the SHFE/LME price ratio kept weakening, and prices were mainly under pressure in the short term.

Strait of Hormuz disruptions and Iran tensions are driving up aluminum prices and premiums. Aluminium Bahrain and Qatalum have cut output, while feedstock is tight. Rerouting via Port of Sohar or Saudi ports raises costs and delays. Buyers are turning to China, India, Russia, Canada, and scrap to offset risk. Prolonged disruption could reduce Middle East market share and reprice it as higher-risk supply.

[SMM Midday Tin Commentary: Improving Macro Sentiment Drove a Rebound in Tin Prices, While Follow-Through in Spot Transactions Remained Limited]

According to the latest data disclosed by the General Administration of Customs, China’s imported copper cathode market, while maintaining the 2025 baseline, is facing dual challenges: the continued rise in the share of EQ copper and whether global supply will continue to be diverted. China’s cumulative copper cathode imports in January-February 2026 totaled 356,900 mt, down 33.13% YoY.

[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary] Silicon Metal: Spot silicon metal prices remained in a stalemate consolidation. Yesterday, SMM east China oxygen-blown #553 silicon was at 9,100-9,300 yuan/mt, and #441 silicon at 9,300-9,500 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous day. The quote center of some silicon enterprises was slightly lower than that of trading firms engaging in both spot and futures market, while downstream users mainly transacted at lower prices, and overall market trading activity was subdued. Polysilicon: N-type recharging polysilicon was quoted at 38-47 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices continued to decline somewhat recently, mainly affected by market sentiment and inventory clearance by some leading enterprises. At present, low-priced polysilicon has already fallen below the cost line of some manufacturers, and the sentiment to hold quotes firm has strengthened somewhat. The upstream market was also still watching wafer price movements.

According to the latest data from China Customs, China imported a total of 5,561 mt in metal content of nickel sulphate in February 2026, down 20% MoM and up 54% YoY. China exported 33 mt in metal content of nickel sulphate, down 74% MoM and down 75% YoY. China's net imports of nickel sulphate were 5,528 mt in metal content in February 2026, down 19% MoM and up 59% YoY. By country, exports to Japan pulled back this month, dragging down total exports; on the import side, imports from Indonesia and other countries also pulled back this month. Although imports from Finland increased, total imports still declined. Net imports of nickel salts also pulled back this month, broadly in line with last month's expectations.

On March 25, the SMM average price of battery-grade nickel sulphate remained stable.

[SMM Analysis:Rare Earth Ore Imports Surge in Early 2026, Exceeding Demand and Causing Surplus] According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, from January to February 2026, China’s imports of mixed rare earth carbonate were about 3,013.7 mt, up 321% YoY. Over the same period, imports of unlisted rare earth oxides were about 12,860.4 mt, also posting a sharp increase of 209% YoY.

SMM News, March 24: Aluminum ingot: On March 24, SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) was reported at 23,440, up 30, at a discount of 170 against the current-month contract, narrowing by 5 (unit: yuan/mt) The SHFE aluminum 04 contract generally stabilized today. Supported by aluminum prices halting their decline and edging up slightly, the South China spot market stabilized and improved, and buyers generally showed good purchasing sentiment today. Spot prices were significantly below the monthly average price, and sellers firmly held prices firm. However, amid weekend inventory buildup and ample circulating cargo, overall support for firm prices was clearly constrained under high inventory pressure. Mainstream transaction prices in the market today were concentrated at premiums of -175 yuan/mt to -165 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum 04 contract.