[SMM Analysis: Import and Export Market Analysis of China's Copper Foil Industry in H1 2026] According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China's cumulative copper foil exports in January–June 2026 were 39,700 mt, up 72.83% YoY; cumulative copper foil imports in January–June were 45,100 mt, up 12.17% YoY, with import growth significantly lower than export growth...

China sulphuric acid market continues weak, regional declines widen, index falls [SMM Sulphuric Acid Weekly Review]

SMM, July 31: This week, LME copper prices showed an overall trend of drifting higher. On Monday, LME copper prices opened at $13,637.5/mt and then drifted higher. Although copper prices edged up, the overall payable indicator for ex-China copper scrap did not pull back significantly. In terms of prices, the transaction payable rate for bare bright copper stayed within the 98.5%-99% range. For No.1 and No.2 copper, impacted by the concentrated maintenance period at some smelters, demand side slowed slightly, and the quoted payable indicators edged down by an average of about 0.2 percentage points. On the transaction side, the stronger copper prices boosted ex-China suppliers' willingness to sell to some extent. Meanwhile, as the ex-China recycling off-season gradually ended, the tight circulation of copper scrap in the market eased slightly from before. However, against the backdrop of high copper prices and the traditional consumption off-season, downstream orders still performed relatively flat, with purchases remaining just-in-time procurement, and overall buying interest limited. Notably, spot premiums for copper cathode stayed high recently, coupled with tight spot supply of copper cathode, which fueled relatively strong demand for bare bright copper, a direct substitute for copper cathode. Consequently, the payable rate for bare bright copper did not pull back with rising copper prices but instead retained some upside support. Overall, transactions in the ex-China copper scrap market improved WoW, but the market atmosphere remained sluggish. Looking ahead to next week, with copper prices staying high and downstream orders in the consumption off-season remaining weak, downstream enterprises are expected to maintain cautious procurement sentiment, and demand side is unlikely to see a significant volume increase. In terms of payable rates, tight supply will continue to support prices, but demand, dominated by just-in-time procurement, will cap further upside room. The payable rate for ex-China copper scrap is expected to remain stable overall in the short term.

July 30, 2026 Guangdong region: This week, premiums in the region bottomed out. At the beginning of the week, premiums fell significantly due to a sharp increase in inventory. As downstream consumption gradually improved and inventory declined, spot premiums rebounded. As of Thursday, high-quality copper was reported at 150 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from last Thursday; standard-quality copper at a premium of 80 yuan/mt, down 60 yuan/mt from last Thursday; and SX-EW copper at a premium of 20 yuan/mt, down 60 yuan/mt from last Thursday. On Thursday, the price spread of standard-quality copper premiums between Shanghai and Guangdong showed Shanghai at a 140 yuan/mt higher, a relatively small spread, with no cross-region shipments this week. According to SMM statistics, as of Thursday, total inventory in Guangdong warehouses stood at 17,000 mt, up 1,800 mt from last Thursday, with warrant holdings totaling 3,900 mt, down 200 mt from last Thursday. Specifically: Warehouse arrivals this week were 10,900 mt/week, down 4,100 mt/week from last week and significantly below the annual average of 14,000 mt/week. Imports of copper decreased notably this week, and arrivals of domestic copper also declined WoW. Warehouse withdrawals were 9,800 mt/week, down sharply by 12,600 mt from last week and far below the annual average of 14,200 mt/week. Sluggish end-use consumption this week led to a significant drop in withdrawals. Looking ahead to next week, arrivals are expected to increase slightly compared to this week, consumption is expected to edge up only slightly, total inventory is expected to edge up, and spot premiums are expected to remain stable. (The above information is based on market data collection and comprehensive assessment by the SMM research team. The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research or decision-making advice. Clients should make prudent decisions and not use this as a substitute for their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are not related to Shanghai Metals Market.)

SMM, July 29: Today, spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong against the front-month contract was quoted at premiums of 80-150 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 115 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. SX-EW copper was quoted at premiums of 10-30 yuan/mt, averaging 20 yuan/mt, also up 10 yuan/mt on the day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong stood at 105,080 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while SX-EW copper averaged 104,985 yuan/mt, also down 20 yuan/mt. Spot market: Guangdong inventory edged down slightly today, mainly due to reduced arrivals. Market expectations of tighter supply ahead prompted suppliers to actively hold prices firm while selling, and premiums edged up slightly from yesterday. The buying sentiment for copper cathode in Guangdong was 2.55, up 0.01 from the previous trading day, while the selling sentiment was 2.94, also up 0.01 (historical data can be accessed in the SMM database). As of 11:00 am, high-quality copper against the front-month contract was quoted at a premium of 150 yuan/mt, standard-quality copper at 80 yuan/mt, and SX-EW copper at 20 yuan/mt. Overall, with inventory showing signs of decline, suppliers held prices firm while selling, and spot premiums edged up slightly. Trading was generally moderate.

Today, spot #1 copper cathode in North China against the front-month contract was reported at average premiums of 40 yuan/mt to 130 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 85 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average transaction price was 105,035 yuan/mt, down 25 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

SMM, July 27: In Guangdong today, #1 copper cathode spot premiums against the front-month contract were reported at 50–110 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 80 yuan/mt, down 85 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 20 yuan/mt to parity, averaging a discount of 10 yuan/mt, down 90 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 105,360 yuan/mt, up 275 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while SX-EW copper averaged 105,270 yuan/mt, up 270 yuan/mt. Spot market: Guangdong inventory rose significantly after the weekend, mainly due to increased arrivals and weakening consumption. With higher inventory and rising copper prices, suppliers eager to sell actively lowered their offers, causing premiums to continuously decline during the day. In early trading, standard-quality copper was quoted at 80 yuan/mt, but few buyers emerged. Suppliers were forced to cut prices, and final transaction levels reached 50 yuan/mt. The purchasing sentiment index for copper cathode in Guangdong stood at 2.51, down 0.05 from the previous trading day, while the shipment sentiment index was 2.89, up 0.09 (historical data can be accessed via our database). As of 11:00 a.m., high-quality copper against the front-month contract was reported at 110 yuan/mt, standard-quality copper at a premium of 50 yuan/mt, and SX-EW copper at a discount of 10 yuan/mt. Overall, rising copper prices and inventory build-up dampened downstream restocking interest, pushing spot premiums lower throughout the session amid thin trading.

From January to June 2026, China's total export volume of copper wire rod reached 166,600 mt, up 97.50% YoY, a figure that already surpassed the full-year level of 2024 and nearly doubled the export volume in the same period of 2025. Demand from new energy and power grid infrastructure outside China was released in a concentrated manner, and the export destination structure underwent significant adjustments. Saudi Arabia jumped to the top export destination with a YoY growth rate of 755.70%, while the Philippines became the only market among the top ten to register negative growth. Total: A New Level Achieved in Two Years, Export Volume Reaches a New Magnitude From January to June 2024, China's exports of copper wire rod were approximately 60,400 mt, rising to 84,400 mt in the same period of 2025, up 39.57% YoY. In the same period of 2026, they further jumped to 166,600 mt, up 97.50% YoY. In just two years, the export scale crossed from the 60,000 mt level to the 160,000 mt level. Behind this growth is the continuous expansion of copper consumption driven by global power grid renovations and new energy deployment, alongside the accelerating pace of China's copper cathode rod capacity export. Country Flow: Saudi Arabia Becomes the Largest Source of Growth, ASEAN Carries Nearly 60% of Net Growth In absolute terms, the top five export destinations in H1 2026 were Saudi Arabia, Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, and the Philippines, in that order. Saudi Arabia alone contributed roughly one-third of the growth, becoming the largest marginal factor for exports during the period. Currently, Saudi Arabia's downstream industry chains such as cables, electrical equipment, and new energy supporting sectors are rapidly expanding. As the global capacity transfer of "China copper rod, overseas wire and cable" continues to accelerate, large-scale infrastructure and new energy projects outside China are implemented in a concentrated manner, effectively boosting local wire and cable consumption; coupled with the continued release of power grid upgrade demand in various countries, China's copper processing enterprises are actively exploring markets outside China, and these multiple forces together drove a sharp increase in exports in H1. At the same time, demand from multiple emerging markets surged simultaneously. Indonesia's exports skyrocketed 536.74% YoY, India's rose 35.71% YoY, and Singapore's increased 71.32% YoY; Australia's soared 860.63% YoY, and coupled with a 107.28% YoY increase in exports to other countries, China's copper cathode rod export diversification continued to advance, reducing reliance on any single region. The primary driver behind this high export growth was the accelerated capacity transfer of "China's copper rod + overseas wire and cable," concentrated demand from large projects boosting local wire and cable consumption, alongside faster power infrastructure construction in various countries, and domestic processing enterprises actively expanding overseas channels—collectively driving the sharp export increase in H1. Trade Mode: Processing Structure Iterative Shift, Share of Processing Trade with Supplied Materials Edges Up By trade mode, the export structure of copper cathode wire rod saw notable adjustments in H1 2026. During this period, the share of processing trade with imported materials in exports pulled back to 57.76%, while that of processing trade with supplied materials rose to 32.93%. Compared with the same period of 2025, the industry’s exports were highly reliant on the processing trade with imported materials model, when its share was as high as 70% and processing trade with supplied materials was only 14%. The structural shift resulted from changes in export order patterns, coupled with flexible adjustments by domestic enterprises in their order-taking structure to actively meet the differentiated procurement needs of overseas clients, driving diversification in export trade modes. This iterative transformation of the trade landscape also forced export enterprises to rethink their operational approaches, adopting differentiated arrangements in raw material procurement, capital turnover, and customs declaration and settlement, etc., for different trade modes to ensure risk control. Looking ahead, the steady implementation of medium and long-term infrastructure and new energy projects outside China is providing sustained solid support for copper cathode rod exports, while China's copper processing enterprises continue to expand their export deployment, giving the industry's export fundamentals strong resilience. However, affected by the front-loading of orders in H1 and the sharp rise in the export base, coupled with the increasing number of companies entering the export arena, overseas market competition has intensified, putting further pressure on industry export profit margins to narrow; overall export growth in H2 is expected to moderate. In addition, potential risks still need attention: new overseas copper processing capacity gradually coming on stream is diverting import demand, and international trade uncertainties will continue to disrupt the pace of overseas purchasing orders. In summary, China's total copper cathode rod exports in H2 are expected to stay high, with the export market's center of gravity continuing to tilt toward the Middle East, while the divergent demand pattern in Southeast Asia persists.

China's sulphuric acid market continues to weaken, index declines [SMM Sulphuric Acid Weekly Review]

SMM, July 24: This week, LME copper prices showed an overall trend of retreat after rapid rise. LME copper opened Monday at $13,524/mt, then quickly climbed to near $13,934/mt before pulling back. Influenced by the rapid mid-week rise in copper prices, the payable indicator for ex-China copper scrap experienced a slight correction; however, as copper prices pulled back on Friday, the payable indicator rebounded to levels similar to last week. In terms of prices, mainstream quotations for ex-China bare bright copper remained around 99%, with No. 1 copper quoted in the 97%-98% range and No. 2 copper floating mostly within a 96%-98.5% quotation range due to variations in cargo quality and gold and silver content. Regarding transactions, the mid-week surge in copper prices boosted suppliers’ willingness to sell to some extent, but downstream procurement sentiment remained weak, with the market still dominated by just-in-time procurement. Meanwhile, the tight supply situation of ex-China copper scrap persisted, with limited available cargo in the market, keeping suppliers’ sentiment to hold prices firm relatively strong. In addition, the recent rise in spot premiums for copper cathode provided some support for the discount rate of copper scrap, and in some markets, copper prices and discount rates even rose simultaneously. Overall, with high copper prices combined with the traditional consumption off-season, downstream orders performed averagely, buyer procurement enthusiasm was insufficient, and the market trading atmosphere remained sluggish. The current ex-China copper scrap market continues to show a weak supply-demand dynamic, with tight supply on the supply side and cautious procurement on the demand side, keeping overall market activity limited. Looking ahead to next week, with downstream orders yet to show significant improvement and copper prices staying high, the demand side is expected to remain dominated by just-in-time procurement, making a significant increase in transaction volumes difficult. Furthermore, supported jointly by tight supply of ex-China copper scrap and elevated spot premiums for copper cathode, the discount rate for ex-China copper scrap is expected to stay high. Overall, market trading next week will continue to be sluggish, while the discount rate will continue to consolidate at highs.