China's March silver (unwrought silver ingots with purity ≥99.99%, HS code 71069110) imports reached 398.62 mt, up 93% MoM, fulfilling expectations of rising silver ingot imports. Cumulative imports from January to March 2026 totaled 639.91 mt, surging 5,346% from 11.75 mt in the same period of 2025. Historical Comparison: Similarities and Differences Between Two Import Windows Historically, in 2023, surging PV demand widened silver price spreads in and outside China, and silver imports grew significantly (imports in June 2023 surged 5,329%). The similarity between this round and the historical pattern lies in the short-term surge in PV industry demand — in 2023, it was driven by the scaled-up commissioning of silver powder and silver paste capacity, while in 2026, it was driven by PV export rush stockpiling. Both were underpinned by rigid demand for industrial physical silver. The difference is that in 2026, precious metals experienced a rare bull market driven by both industrial demand and interest rate cut cycles. Retail investment demand exacerbated industrial raw material shortages, and China's spot silver ingot market saw significant premiums, boosting physical import profitability. In addition to silver ingots, silver-containing products and crude silver raw materials also entered China in large volumes as semi-manufactured products, which were then processed into silver ingots for circulation. Drivers of the Import Surge This Round 1. PV Export Rush Stockpiling Solar cell and module manufacturers needed to complete order deliveries before the export tax rebate cancellation on April 1. Intermediate processing segments stockpiled large volumes of raw materials in Q1, with certain manufacturers being the core drivers of the industrial import surge. 2. Retail Investment Demand Against the macro backdrop of global interest rate cuts, US debt crisis concerns, and safe-haven demand in Q1, gold and silver became important asset allocation options, with silver gaining popularity as a "gold alternative." After gold prices repeatedly hit new highs, small-denomination investment silver bars were heavily traded as alternatives to high-priced gold investments. 3. Sustained Arbitrage Window Domestic silver prices, driven by robust demand, were significantly higher than London spot prices. Stable SHFE silver premiums prompted global traders to ship silver to China for arbitrage. Some silver ingots exported through China's processing trade were not shipped to Europe or the US but were instead re-imported by traders directly into the Shenzhen market, forming a unique "export-to-domestic sales" pathway. Q2 Outlook: Pulse-Like Rally Fades Entering Q2, the explosive import growth is expected to be unsustainable. Although China's silver prices still carried a premium over London, physical demand and spot premiums had shifted, with some traders' imported silver ingots already experiencing sluggish sales in late March. The demand side weakened simultaneously. Both industrial and investment demand in China declined, and the spot market softened further. After the PV export rush ended, silver nitrate manufacturers' purchasing enthusiasm dropped sharply; silver prices moving sideways and uncertainty over Middle East conflicts cooled investment enthusiasm, with funds previously flowing into the precious metals market redirected to high-momentum markets such as the US dollar, US Treasuries, and crude oil. China's silver ingot market transitioned from "scarce supply" in April to "trading at discounts with no takers," and as month-end approached, suppliers were forced to cut premiums for bulk shipments or transfer inventory to participate in SHFE deliveries. Profit margins were sharply compressed. The spot premiums, which peaked at 3,650 yuan/kg in February, had pulled back to near parity by April. Some suppliers sold at discounts due to cash flow needs, import silver ingot profits declined significantly, and the arbitrage window disappeared. Overall, the record-breaking silver imports in Q1 were a "pulse-like" rally driven by both retail investment fever and PV export rush stockpiling. As both drivers faded simultaneously, combined with assessments of actual trade market orders, imports in April are expected to pull back.

China's imports of silver (unwrought silver ingots with purity ≥99.99%, HS code 71069110) reached 398.62 mt in March, up 93% MoM from February, fulfilling expectations that silver ingot imports would maintain their upward momentum. Total silver imports from January to March 2026 reached 639.91 mt, up 5,346% YoY compared with 11.75 mt in Q1 2025. Historically, against the backdrop of a sharp increase in demand from China's PV industry in 2023, the price gap between the Chinese and international silver markets gradually widened, and silver imports also surged significantly. () The similarity between this round of silver ingot import window opening and the historical one lies in the short-term surge in PV industry demand — 2023 marked the initial large-scale commissioning of silver powder and silver paste capacity, while 2026 saw short-term stockpiling demand driven by the PV export rush. Behind both import windows was rigid demand for physical silver in industrial production. The difference, however, is that in 2026, precious metals experienced a rare bull market driven by both industrial demand and the interest rate cut cycle, with retail investment demand further tightening already scarce industrial raw materials. As a result, significant spot premiums emerged in China's spot silver ingot market, boosting profits from physical imports. It is understood that in addition to silver ingots, silver-containing products and crude silver raw materials also entered the Chinese market in large quantities as semi-manufactured products for further processing into silver ingots and market circulation. Specifically, the driving factors behind this round of import surge were: 1. PV industry export rush stockpiling Solar cell and module manufacturers needed to complete order deliveries before the export tax rebate cancellation on April 1, leading to massive raw material stockpiling by midstream processing firms in Q1, with some individual manufacturers being the core drivers of the industrial import surge. 2. Retail investment demand: Against the macro backdrop of global interest rate cuts, US debt crisis concerns, and safe-haven demand in Q1, gold and silver became important asset allocation options, with silver gaining popularity as a "gold alternative." After gold prices repeatedly hit new highs, small-denomination investment silver bars were heavily traded as an alternative to high-priced gold. 3. Sustained arbitrage window Driven by robust demand, Chinese silver prices were significantly higher than London spot prices. With stable SHFE silver premiums, global traders were incentivized to ship silver to China for arbitrage. Even silver ingots exported through China's processing trade were not shipped to Europe or the US but were instead re-imported by traders directly into the Shenzhen market, forming a unique "export-to-domestic-sales" pathway. Q2 outlook: Entering Q2, the explosive growth in silver ingot imports is unlikely to sustain. Although Chinese silver ingots still carry a premium over London prices, demand for physical silver ingots and spot premiums have changed, with some traders' imported silver ingots already experiencing sluggish sales since late March. On one hand, domestic industrial and investment demand declined simultaneously, and the spot market weakened further. After the PV export rush orders ended, silver nitrate manufacturers' purchasing enthusiasm dropped sharply. Additionally, as silver prices moved sideways and uncertainties from Middle East conflicts dampened precious metals investment sentiment, funds that had previously flowed into the precious metals market shifted back to high-momentum markets such as US dollar, US Treasuries, and crude oil. Chinese silver ingots gradually transitioned from "hard to find" in April to "trading at discounts with no buyers." Approaching month-end, suppliers began lowering premiums to offload inventory or transfer stock for SHFE delivery. On the other hand, import profit margins were significantly compressed, mainly because spot premiums, which peaked at 3,650 yuan/kg in February, had pulled back to near parity by April. Some suppliers even sold at discounts due to cash flow needs, causing import silver ingot profits to decline sharply and the arbitrage window to close. Overall, the record-breaking silver imports in Q1 this year were a "pulse-like" event driven by both retail investment enthusiasm and PV stockpiling rush. As both driving factors fade simultaneously, combined with an assessment of actual import order performance in the trade market, imports in April are expected to pull back.

[Zinc Arrivals in South China Decreased Within the Week] According to SMM, zinc inventory in South China saw a notable decline within the week, mainly due to the coincidence of the "March 3rd" festival holiday within the week, combined with increased factory-pickup shipments from some smelters, which led to reduced arrivals at smelters. On the consumption side, high zinc prices suppressed end-use consumption. Going forward, attention should be paid to inventory performance against the backdrop of enterprise stockpiling ahead of the Labour Day holiday.

SMM April 22 update: Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 310 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 230 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 170 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 102,455 yuan/mt, up 35 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 102,355 yuan/mt, up 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory resumed its decline after only one day of increase, primarily due to reduced arrivals. With continued inventory decline coupled with relatively small copper price fluctuations, suppliers had a strong willingness to hold prices firm. During the early session, standard-quality copper was quoted at 230 yuan/mt, but was quickly snapped up, and suppliers continued to raise prices for shipments. Eventually, mainstream transaction prices for standard-quality copper rose to 230 yuan/mt. Overall trading activity was better than the previous day. The purchasing sentiment for copper cathode in Guangdong was 2.45, up 0.07 from the previous trading day, and the shipment sentiment was 3.69, up 0.07 from the previous trading day (historical data can be accessed via the database). Overall, inventory hit a new low for the year, and suppliers actively held prices firm. Overall trading activity was better than the previous day.

War damage to Iran’s key steel mills threatens ~14 Mt of capacity, sharply reducing crude steel output and exportable supply. While domestic demand remains relatively stable, energy shortages and logistics disruptions amplify losses, tightening regional supply, supporting semi-finished steel prices, and reshaping trade flows.

SMM April 13 News: Data Brief: As of Monday, April 13, SMM copper inventories across major regions nationwide decreased 12.52% WoW from last Monday, marking five consecutive weeks of destocking. Specifically, in Shanghai, imported copper arrivals remained stable while domestic arrivals decreased somewhat; downstream buyers mainly made just-in-time procurement, and inventory destocked steadily. In Jiangsu, domestic arrivals declined, but the pace of warehouse withdrawals also slowed down simultaneously, with regional inventory basically stable. In Guangdong, the prior destocking trend continued, mainly supported by reduced arrivals and robust end-use consumption, with inventory continuing to pull back. Outlook: On the supply side, imported copper arrivals were intermittent, the pace of domestic arrivals slowed down, and an overall tight supply pattern is emerging. On the demand side, downstream buyers still mainly made just-in-time procurement, with overall consumption slowing down slightly compared to the previous period. According to survey data, the weekly operating rate of copper cathode rod is expected to decline to 75.58% this week, down 4.39 percentage points WoW. Considering both supply and demand sides, the market has formed a pattern of "tightening supply and phased stabilization of consumption," and social inventory is expected to continue destocking this week.

Today, the most-traded BC copper contract 2605 opened at 86,560 yuan/mt, swung wildly lower in early trading to touch a low of 86,560 yuan/mt, then fluctuated upward. After the daytime session opened, the copper price center gradually shifted higher to reach 87,590 yuan/mt, ultimately closing at 87,310 yuan/mt, up 0.59%. Open interest stood at 65.48 million lots, an increase of 17 lots from the previous trading day, with trading volume at 2,894 lots, indicating bulls adding positions. On the macro front, Israel sought peace talks with Lebanon, and ceasefire expectations heated up again. Although the fluctuating attitudes of both the US and Iran kept market uncertainty alive, overall sentiment leaned optimistic, supporting copper prices to hold up well. On the fundamentals front, supply side, imported copper arrivals continued, while domestic supply saw reduced arrivals due to maintenance, and suppliers held prices firm and held back from selling, making low-priced sources hard to find in the market. Demand side, copper prices mainly fluctuated at highs, and downstream buyers only made just-in-time procurement. The SHFE copper 2605 contract closed at 98,440 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2605 contract at 87,310 yuan/mt, its after-tax price was 98,660 yuan/mt. The price spread between the SHFE copper 2605 contract and BC copper was -220, with the inversion maintained and widening compared to the previous day.

Today, the most-traded BC copper contract 2605 opened at 87,270 yuan/mt, initially experiencing wild swings to touch a high of 87,360 yuan/mt before maintaining wide fluctuations. After the daytime session opened, copper prices opened lower with a gap, dipping to 86,320 yuan/mt, then fluctuated upward to finally close at 86,670 yuan/mt, up 0.67%. Open interest stood at 6,377 lots, an increase of 71 lots from the previous trading day, with trading volume at 2,981 lots, indicating bullish position building. On the macro front, the temporary ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran and the US dollar index touching a one-month low provided a phased boost to copper prices. However, the current agreement had limited binding force — of the 10 ceasefire terms proposed by Iran, 3 had already been violated, and an Iranian spokesperson also stated that Iran was prepared for a prolonged conflict. Uncertainty persisted over shipping conditions in the Strait of Hormuz, with risk-averse sentiment continuing to disturb futures. Fundamentals side, supply side, imported copper arrivals continued, while domestic supply saw reduced arrivals due to maintenance. Demand side, copper prices mainly fluctuated, and downstream buyers only made just-in-time procurement. Inventory side, as of Thursday, April 9, SMM copper inventories in major regions nationwide declined 13.06% WoW from the previous Thursday. SHFE copper 2605 contract closed at 97,810 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2605 contract at 86,670 yuan/mt, its after-tax price was 97,937 yuan/mt. The price spread between SHFE copper 2605 and BC copper was -127, remaining inverted but narrowing from the previous day.

SMM April 9 reported that this week, the total stainless steel inventory across the Wuxi and Foshan markets saw slight destocking, declining from 984,100 mt on April 2, 2026 to 978,700 mt on April 9, 2026, down 0.55% WoW. Stainless steel social inventory showed a slight destocking trend this week. The week entered April, coinciding with the Qingming Festival, but the holiday was relatively short, and the market did not see significant stockpiling demand. Downstream end-user procurement remained driven by rigid demand throughout, with no concentrated restocking wave forming. Futures side, the US-Iran conflict de-escalated during the week, with news of a two-week ceasefire between the two sides, easing market sentiment. Futures were lifted accordingly and probed higher, which in turn boosted spot market confidence. Spot inquiries and transactions recovered somewhat, directly driving a slight inventory reduction. However, it should be noted that geopolitical conflict risks had not been fully eliminated, short-term disruptions persisted, and the cautious sentiment among downstream end-users had not entirely dissipated, with a consistent lack of willingness to proactively stockpile. Supply side, steel mills concentrated their distribution to the market at the end of March, resulting in elevated arrivals in the earlier period, while this week's market arrivals decreased WoW, alleviating inventory accumulation pressure to some extent. However, stainless steel mill production schedules remained at high levels in April, and supply-side pressure continued to persist, posing significant challenges to further destocking. Coupled with the potential uncertainties of geopolitical conflicts at the macro perspective, the overall cautious atmosphere in the market had not fully faded, further constraining the pace of destocking. Overall, this week's slight destocking was primarily driven by the combined effects of the US-Iran ceasefire lifting futures, improved spot transactions, and reduced arrivals this week. Currently, steel mills' high production schedule pace had not changed significantly, and social inventory still faced considerable destocking pressure against the backdrop of high supply. Although spot transactions recovered somewhat, the cautious sentiment among downstream players was difficult to change, making significant destocking unlikely in the short term. Going forward, the trajectory of inventory will still hinge on the evolution of geopolitical conflicts, the direction of futures, and the intensity of actual downstream demand release.

【SMM Copper Cathode Rod News Flash】Social inventory of copper cathode in major regions across China continued destocking this week, but the destocking pace slowed down. The rebound in copper prices weighed on downstream consumption, yet maintenance at smelters led to reduced arrivals of domestically produced supplies, which continued to support inventory drawdowns.