According to customs data, China's aluminum plate/sheet and strip (tariff codes 76061121, 76061129, 76061191, 76061199, 76061220, 76061230, 76061251, 76061259, 76061290, 76069100, 76069200) exports in March 2026 reached 278,200 mt, up 21% MoM and up 3% YoY.

Scrap tightening and a major nickel-cobalt producer's output cut pushed SHFE stainless steel to levels not seen since 2023 — yet physical demand remains conspicuously absent heading into the May Day break

I. Resource Endowment: World's Second-Largest Reserves and Development Potential As a core holder of global rare earth resources, Brazil boasts proven reserves of 21-25 million tonnes, accounting for 23% of the global total—second only to China. This positions Brazil with the potential to reshape the global rare earth supply landscape. Its deposits are primarily ion-adsorption types, widely distributed across states like Minas Gerais and Goiás. Representative projects include: Colossus Mine : With reserves of 493 million tonnes and an average grade of 0.251%, it is currently Brazil's largest disclosed ion-type rare earth project. Caldeira Rare Earth Project : Holding 1.5 billion tonnes at a 0.2413% grade, it offers significant scale and commercial viability. Tiros Titanium Rare Earth Project : Though smaller in reserve size (5.5 million tonnes), it stands out with a high average grade of 0.400%, making it one of the highest-grade projects in the country. Notably, Brazilian rare earths often coexist with niobium, tantalum, and titanium. This nature adds complexity to processing but also opens avenues for comprehensive value recovery. II. Industry Status: Shifting from "Raw Material Export" to "Domestic Processing" Historically, Brazil's rare earth sector has been characterized by a "high reserves, low output" paradox. In 2024, national production was a mere 20 tonnes, a stark contrast to the global annual output of nearly 400,000 tonnes. The core bottleneck has been the lack of mid- and downstream capabilities in separation and refining. However, this is rapidly changing due to strategic national adjustments. (I) Policy Drivers: Mandating Domestic Processing for a Closed-Loop Chain The Brazilian government has designated rare earths as "strategic minerals." Under the National Policy for Critical and Strategic Minerals (PNMCE, Bill PL 4.443/2025), at least 80% of critical strategic minerals must be processed domestically, effectively banning raw ore exports. This policy aims to break the passive cycle of "mining-exporting raw materials-importing high-value products" and drive the construction of a full domestic value chain "from mine to magnet." (II) Project Implementation: From Lab to Industrialization In 2026, Brazil's rare earth development took a substantive leap: MagBras Initiative : Led by CIT SENAI in Minas Gerais and coordinated by FIESC in Santa Catarina, this project united 28 companies and research bodies to deliver the first 20kg of rare earth carbonate. This marked Brazil's first autonomous, full-process production from mining to chemical compound. LabFabITr Facility : Located in Lagoa Santa, Minas Gerais, this is the Southern Hemisphere's first lab-factory dedicated to rare earth magnet and alloy R&D, providing crucial technical support for local permanent magnet manufacturing. III. Capital and Geopolitics: The $2.17 Billion Investment Gamble Between 2025 and 2029, Brazil's rare earth sector is poised for $2.17 billion in investment—a 49% surge compared to the 2024-2028 forecast. This makes it the fastest-growing segment in Brazil's mining investment portfolio. This capital influx is underpinned by the geopolitical logic of global supply chain restructuring: (I) External Demand: A "Diversified Option" Amidst US-China Tensions As competition between the US and China intensifies, Brazil's strategic value as a "non-Chinese" supplier has skyrocketed. Its policy of "global openness" avoids picking sides while leveraging domestic processing mandates to attract technology transfer—requiring foreign investors to build local processing capabilities rather than just extracting ore. (II) Internal Drive: From "Resource Nationalism" to "Technological Autonomy" Brazil's strategy transcends simple resource protection; it is an upgrade centered on "technological autonomy." For instance, MagBras targets permanent magnet manufacturing—a sector currently monopolized by China, Japan, and Germany. Success would position Brazil among the few nations mastering the "ore-to-magnet" value chain, directly integrating into the core supply chains of EVs, wind energy, and industrial robotics. IV. Challenges and Outlook: Technology, Cost, and Global Competition Despite the upside, three core challenges remain: (I) Technological Barriers Rare earth separation and magnet manufacturing are high-threshold sectors. Brazil currently relies on international partnerships (e.g., European technical support for LabFabITr) to bridge this gap. (II) Cost Pressures Brazil's low-grade ion-adsorption ores entail higher beneficiation costs compared to some high-grade Chinese deposits. Additionally, the capital and operational expenditures for domestic processing could impact international price competitiveness. (III) Global Competition With Australia, the US, and various African nations also accelerating their rare earth developments, Brazil must carve out differentiated advantages in technology, cost efficiency, and policy stability to secure its market share. V. Conclusion: Leaping from "Resource Holder" to "Supply Chain Player" Brazil's rare earth transition represents a strategic leap from a "resource exporter" to a "technology-driven industrial player." While its 21 million tonnes of reserves provide the foundation, the true value lies in its policy-driven, capital-intensive push to build a complete industrial chain. If initiatives like MagBras achieve commercial success, Brazil is on track to become the "third pole" in the global rare earth supply chain by 2030, reshaping trade dynamics and offering a new paradigm for resource-based economies worldwide.

【SMM Analysis】 Why Are Chinese Lead-Acid Battery Enterprises Taking More Holidays for the 2026 Labor Day? As the Labor Day holiday approaches at the end of April, SMM conducted a survey on holiday arrangements among lead-acid battery enterprises across 10 provinces in China.

Spot market: SMM #1 lead ingot prices remained stable from the beginning of the week through mid-week, then declined toward the weekend. Ahead of the Labour Day holiday, downstream stocking willingness was subdued, with only sporadic rigid-demand purchases. Wait-and-see sentiment was strong, and overall spot order trading was sluggish. By region, Henan was dominated by long-term contract deliveries, with traders offering discounts of 200-130 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2606 contract, and transactions at high prices were lackluster. In Hunan, spot order premiums narrowed from 0-30 yuan/mt to 0-20 yuan/mt, with some traders making shipments at slight discounts. Jiangxi quotes remained firm, with premiums pulling back from 150 yuan/mt to 120 yuan/mt. In Guangdong, ex-factory premiums continued to decline throughout the week, narrowing from 70-80 yuan/mt to 30-50 yuan/mt. Overall, lead prices were stable early in the week before weakening. Smelters' sentiment to hold prices firm gradually softened with some price concessions, but downstream rigid demand weakened ahead of the holiday, the tug-of-war between sellers and buyers intensified, and spot cargo transactions were mediocre overall.

SMM April 30 update: Lead prices fluctuated at highs before pulling back this week, with secondary refined lead generally trading at discounts. Early in the week, smelter maintenance increased and regional supply tightened, with quotes maintained at a discount of 80 yuan/mt to a premium of 50 yuan/mt. Downstream buyers saw weak rigid demand ahead of the holiday, and market trading was sluggish. From mid-week to the weekend, lead prices weakened. Raw material cost support narrowed quotes to a discount of 50 yuan/mt to a premium of 50 yuan/mt, as downstream enterprises gradually went on holiday and spot cargo transactions remained weak. Regional secondary lead supply contracted as smelters held prices firm on shipments. Combined with stable scrap battery procurement prices, smelting costs pulled back somewhat, and losses were slightly repaired. As of April 30, large enterprises posted losses of 109 yuan/mt, while small and medium-sized enterprises posted losses of 309 yuan/mt. Next week, scrap battery raw material inventory will remain tight, some smelters will cut production, and secondary lead supply will contract. Downstream consumption will remain weak, the weak supply-demand pattern on both sides will continue, and industry losses will be difficult to improve. Secondary refined lead is expected to maintain a discount of 50-0 yuan/mt.

According to Reuters, Glencore’s 2026 cobalt export quota, together with the carried-over volume from 2025, totals 22,800 tonnes. The company produced 5,800 tonnes of cobalt in the first quarter of 2026, down 39% year-on-year. Output from its Kamoto Copper Company (KCC) and Mutanda operations that exceeds allocated quotas is being stored locally in the DRC for future sale when market conditions improve. Constrained by export limits, the company is postponing the final processing of cobalt to cut processing costs. Current inventories at the two operations are sufficient to cover near-term export quota shipments. Glencore has mostly fulfilled its 2025 export quota in the first quarter, with the remaining volume shipped in April.

This week, ferrous metals moved sideways and upward. During the week, as US-Iran negotiations made no progress and the Strait of Hormuz remained closed, combined with declining US crude oil inventories, Brent crude oil surged sharply, driving coking coal higher. Although BHP port spot cargoes were available for purchase, which was bearish for market sentiment, futures had already priced in related expectations earlier, so iron ore pullback was limited and cost support was relatively neutral. The Politburo meeting held mid-week had low direct correlation with ferrous metals, and ferrous metals fluctuated at highs during the week. Spot market side, end-users restocked at low prices before the holiday, and as futures rose in the latter half of the week, speculative demand was also released...

On April 29, Volvo Cars announced that the company's Q1 revenue was 72.62 billion Swedish kronor, above expectations of 72.03 billion Swedish kronor. Operating profit was 1.6 billion kronor ($172 million), below 1.9 billion kronor in the same period last year. The company's CEO stated that as locally developed car models such as the XC70 launch new versions covering larger market segments, performance in the Chinese market is expected to begin improving.

[SMM Survey: Global Magnesium Supply Landscape Undergoes Accelerated Restructuring with Simultaneous Breakthroughs in Australian Waste Residue Magnesium Extraction and EU Strategic Projects] Australia's waste residue magnesium extraction project achieved a key breakthrough, Greenland's Molli Hill received EU strategic certification, and Romania launched dual projects. The global magnesium supply chain is undergoing accelerated restructuring, with trends toward green and regional development emerging.