SMM June 6 News: Metals Market: Overnight, base metals across both domestic and overseas markets fell collectively. In the domestic market, SHFE tin led the decline with a drop of 5.27%, while LME tin fell 4.92%, LME copper fell 2.78%, and LME aluminum, LME zinc, and SHFE copper all fell over 1% (LME aluminum fell 1.84%, LME zinc fell 1.52%, and SHFE copper fell 1.84%). The declines for the remaining metals were within 1%. Alumina main contract rose 0.65%, and cast aluminum main contract fell 0.61%. Overnight, ferrous metals generally rose, with only stainless steel falling by 0.14%. All other metals rose, with hot-rolled coil and rebar up around 0.4% (hot-rolled coil rose 0.47% and rebar rose 0.44%). For coking coal and coke, coking coal rose 1.73%, and coke rose 0.15%. In precious metals, overnight COMEX gold fell 3.35%, posting a weekly decline of 5.21%. COMEX silver tumbled 8.08%, with a weekly decline of 10.39%, recording a fourth consecutive weekly decline. Domestically, SHFE gold fell 2.93%, with a weekly decline of 0.66%, and SHFE silver fell 7.43%, with a weekly decline of 3.72%. The US once again recorded strong job growth in May, raising concerns about a possible interest rate hike later this year. As of 8:27 on June 5, overnight closing prices: Macro Front [Foreign Ministry Introduces Arrangements for General Secretary Xi Jinping's Visit to North Korea] At the invitation of Kim Jong Un, State Affairs Commission Chairman of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and President of the People's Republic of China, will pay a state visit to the Democratic People's Republic of Korea from June 8 to 9. Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning stated at a regular press conference on the 5th that this visit marks General Secretary Xi Jinping's first state visit to North Korea in seven years. During the visit, the top leaders of the two parties and two countries will exchange views on bilateral relations and issues of common concern. In recent years, under the strategic guidance of General Secretary Xi Jinping and General Secretary Kim Jong Un, the traditional friendly and cooperative relationship between China and North Korea has maintained sustained, healthy, and stable development, bringing tangible benefits to both countries and their peoples. This year marks the 65th anniversary of the signing of the China-North Korea Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation, and Mutual Assistance. Both sides will take this visit as an opportunity to push China-North Korea relations for greater development while advancing with the times, enhancing the well-being of the two peoples, and making greater contributions to regional and even global peace, stability, development, and prosperity. (Xinhua News Agency) China: Premier Li Qiang chaired a State Council Executive Meeting on June 5. The meeting pointed out that, based on the characteristics of future industries, it is necessary to further strengthen forward-looking layout and intensify promotion efforts to firmly grasp the initiative in development. Efforts must be made to solidify the technological foundation by continuously increasing investment in basic research and systematically deploying original and disruptive technological breakthroughs. Emphasis should be placed on ecosystem building by promoting the deep integration of industry, academia, research, and application, encouraging close cooperation along the industry chain, and cultivating more startups and unicorn enterprises in key tracks. [Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development Seeks Public Comments on Regulations on the Management of Housing Provident Fund (Revised Draft for Comments)] The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued a notice to solicit public comments on the Regulations on the Management of Housing Provident Fund (Revised Draft for Comments). Employees may withdraw the stored balance in their housing provident fund accounts under any of the following circumstances: (1) paying rent; (2) purchasing, constructing, renovating, or overhauling self-occupied housing; (3) repaying principal and interest on home purchase loans; (4) decorating self-occupied housing up to a specified limit; (5) paying property management fees for self-occupied housing; (6) retiring or resigning; (7) completely losing work capacity and terminating the employment (personnel) relationship with the employer; (8) emigrating and settling abroad; (9) other housing consumption circumstances approved by the State Council. (Wall Street CN) The Ministry of Transport and ten other departments issued the Three-Year Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality Development of Mini- and Small-Sized Passenger Car Rental (2026–2028). The plan proposes accelerating the construction of EV charging facilities in highway service areas, with 30,000 new or upgraded EV charging facilities (charging guns) with power above 60 kW to be completed in highway service areas (including rest areas) by the end of 2028. US Dollar: As of the overnight close, the US dollar index rose 0.62% to 100.07, following data that showed strong US job performance in May. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that non-farm payrolls rose by 172,000 in May, with jobs data for the previous two months revised upward. The average job growth over the last three months marked the best performance in over two years, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, with labour market resilience far exceeding overall market expectations. "Fed mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos noted that the re-acceleration of hiring this spring will provide further ammunition for Fed officials concerned about inflation and believing current interest rates are too low to suppress a new round of price pressures. Some officials have recently hinted that the Fed should be prepared to raise interest rates later this year, at least clawing back part of the three 25-basis-point rate cuts implemented in H2 last year. Those cuts were made to stabilize the labour market, which now looks much healthier than it did then. This jobs report won't entirely settle the debate over how much the Fed should consider raising rates later this year, but it further illustrates that the case for cutting rates in the near term has largely evaporated. The stronger argument for rate hikes currently stems from the inflation outlook. Multiple overlapping shocks, including AI infrastructure buildout, tariffs, and energy, could keep inflation persistently well above the Fed's 2% target, even if progress is made toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping. If the Fed stays on hold while inflation rises, real inflation-adjusted rates would decline. Even if the labour market isn't the main driver, this mechanism could become a key factor fueling debate over rate hikes. (Jin10 Data APP) Fed's Hammack stated that with the labour market appearing to be roughly in balance, rate hikes could become appropriate in the near term. Hammack said that while she never focuses too much on any single data point, today's jobs report reaffirms that the labour market seems roughly in balance. She noted that the unemployment rate remaining at 4.3% is broadly consistent with what she defines as full employment. Given the uncertainty regarding the economic outlook, holding rates steady is sensible for now. But if recent trends continue, action could be needed soon. This essentially echoed remarks she made on June 2. (Jin10 Data APP) According to foreign media reports, the May non-farm payrolls data far exceeded market expectations, prompting the US interest rate futures market to sharply increase bets on a Fed rate hike at the December meeting. According to LSEG data, interest rate futures markets now price in a 65% probability of a Fed rate hike in December, up from 48% before the release of the jobs report. For the June meeting, the market continues to widely expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% range. Stronger than expected employment data indicates the US labour market remains resilient, further weakening market expectations for near-term rate cuts and reinforcing investor judgement that the Fed could resume raising rates later in the year to address inflation pressures. (Jin10 Data APP) According to CME FedWatch: The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in June is 96.6% (vs. 96.4% prior to the non-farm payrolls release), with a 3.4% probability of a cumulative 25 bp rate cut. The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged through July is 90.6%, with a 6.2% probability of a cumulative 25 bp rate hike and a 3.2% probability of a cumulative 25 bp rate cut. (Jin10 Data APP) Macro: Next week, China side, China will release data including the May CPI yoy, May PPI yoy, May Trade Balance (pending), and May M2 Money Supply yoy (pending). US side, data to be released includes the US May NY Fed 1-Year Inflation Expectations, May NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, weekly change in ADP Employment for the week ending May 23, April Trade Balance, May Existing Home Sales Annualized Rate, April Wholesale Sales m/m, May unadjusted CPI yoy, May seasonally adjusted CPI m/m, May seasonally adjusted Core CPI m/m, May unadjusted Core CPI yoy, US 10-Year Note Auction rate and bid-to-cover ratio for the week ending June 10, Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending June 6, May PPI yoy, May PPI m/m, June preliminary 1-year inflation expectations, and June preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Germany side, data to be released includes the German April seasonally adjusted Industrial Production m/m, April seasonally adjusted Trade Balance, and May final CPI m/m. Eurozone side, data to be released includes the Eurozone June Sentix Investor Confidence Index, ECB Deposit Facility Rate for the period through June 11, and ECB Main Refinancing Rate for the period through June 11. UK side, data to be released includes the UK April 3-month GDP m/m, April Manufacturing Production m/m, April seasonally adjusted Goods Trade Balance, and April Industrial Production m/m. Other data to be released includes the Bank of Canada rate decision for the period through June 10, France May final CPI m/m, Japan April Trade Balance, and Switzerland May Consumer Confidence Index. Additionally, the Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision, and BOC Governor Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Rogers will hold a monetary policy press conference. The ECB will announce its interest rate decision, and ECB President Lagarde will hold a monetary policy press conference. Crude Oil: At the overnight close, both oil benchmarks fell collectively. WTI crude fell 3%, and Brent crude declined 2.37%, though both recorded weekly gains (WTI crude up 3.31% for the week, Brent crude up 1.82% for the week). Overnight oil prices fell mainly due to reduced market concerns over a potential US-Iran conflict. On the 5th, while at a campaign event in Wisconsin, former President Trump tweeted that he would swiftly end the war with Iran, removing a key driver of high prices. As the midterm elections approach, US public opinion widely believes the US-Iran conflict has led to rising oil prices and higher living costs, pressuring Republican electoral prospects. (CCTV) Fitch stated in a new report that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz created a logistical supply shock but did not alter the market trend. It expects rapid production recovery in the region, strong supply growth from non-OPEC countries combined with potentially more aggressive OPEC policy could reignite oversupply conditions in 2026 Q4 and push oil prices lower once the strait reopens. Based on the assumption that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen around end-July (meaning a five-month effective closure period), our base case forecast is for Brent crude oil to average $87/bbl in 2026. Significant uncertainty remains over the exact timing of the strait's reopening, and risks to oil prices are binary. The current price increase reflects temporary logistical supply disruptions rather than permanent loss of production capacity. We expect the strait to reopen around the end of July and believe Brent crude oil prices will fall significantly from elevated levels seen during the March to July period. (Jin10 Data APP) According to a Bloomberg survey, OPEC crude oil production fell to its lowest level in decades in May, as the US blockade against Iran and ongoing turmoil in the Persian Gulf region continue to curtail output. OPEC daily oil production fell by 1.22 million barrels in May (Iran accounting for half), dropping to 16.33 million barrels per day, the lowest level in at least 37 years. The figures exclude the UAE, which left OPEC last month. Iran's daily oil production last month tumbled to 2.34 million barrels, the lowest in five years, a drop of 710,000 barrels. The US Central Command remains active in enforcing the blockade of all maritime traffic to and from Iranian ports. (Jin10 Data APP) Notably, however, the UK government has raised its domestic crude oil price forecast, now expecting that crude oil prices could remain around $100/bbl until 2028 even if the US reaches a peace agreement with Iran, because it now assumes a longer timeline for energy supply recovery from the Gulf region. The new analysis warns that pressures on energy prices are higher than previously expected, while the global economic outlook is also deteriorating. The UK government previously expected that Gulf region supplies could resume within about six months after the war ends, but it now believes that recovery could take as long as fourteen months. (Jin10 Data APP)

Next week, macro data releases will include China’s May CPI annual rate, the US May unadjusted CPI annual rate, and the preliminary US June one-year inflation expectations, all of which are about to be released. Additionally, US-Iran peace talks have seen repeated setbacks, and the US is planning to impose additional tariffs on over 60 global economies under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, leaving the macro environment clouded by numerous uncertainties. Furthermore, China’s head of state will pay a state visit to North Korea from June 8 to 9. On the LME lead front, following two consecutive weeks of heavy deliveries into warehouses, LME lead inventory hit a 13-year high. Meanwhile, a supply gap for high-grade lead ingots persists in Southeast Asia. Even though environmental protection inspections on secondary lead have concluded in the Vietnam market, spot lead continues to trade at widespread, high premiums, causing the LME lead ingot inventory buildup to reverse and shift into a decline. Overseas macro uncertainties abound, pressuring the base metals complex lower. Looking ahead, attention should be paid to the strong supportive factor of supply gaps for lead ore and lead ingots. LME lead is expected to trade within $1,990-2,050/mt next week. On the SHFE lead side, a supply-demand mismatch for lead ingots in China and inventory buildup risks are weighing on lead prices. Additionally, with futures delivery approaching, invisible inventory will be converted to visible inventory. During the lead price decline, secondary lead losses have widened, and supply of lead ore and scrap batteries has been tight, leaving limited downside room for lead prices. The most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade within 16,200-16,650 yuan/mt next week. Spot price forecast: 16,200-16,500 yuan/mt. On the supply side, the post-maintenance recovery of primary and secondary lead has paused for now. Furthermore, with secondary lead losses widening, secondary refined lead has formed an inversion over primary lead. Coupled with potential delivery brand shipments to delivery warehouses, circulating supply is expected to tighten relatively, and spot discounts are expected to narrow further. On the consumption side, downstream enterprises are merely producing based on sales, and after the lead price drop, they have not engaged in concentrated procurement as witnessed during the mid-to-late May decline. They are expected to maintain just-in-time procurement.

The US Department of Commerce (DOC) has issued the preliminary results of its administrative review of the countervailing duty (CVD) order on large diameter welded pipe (LDWP) from Turkey, covering the period from January 1, 2024, to December 31, 2024. The DOC preliminarily determined a net countervailable subsidy rate of 3.37% for the sole mandatory respondent, HDM Çelik Boru Sanayi Ve Ticaret A.S., which also applies to its affiliate HDM Spiral Kaynakli Celik Boru A.S. The all-others rate established in the original investigation remains unchanged at 3.72%, while the review was rescinded for 11 companies that had no reviewable entries during the period. The final results are expected to be issued within 120 days. The market impact suggests that the US continues to tightly enforce its trade defense mechanisms to insulate domestic pipe and tube manufacturers. Although the subsidy rates of 3.37% to 3.72% are relatively moderate, they will continuously squeeze the profit margins of Turkish LDWP exporters, potentially forcing them to recalibrate their North American pricing strategies or redirect export volumes to alternative regional markets.

[Price Review] This week (6.1-6.4), silver continued to fluctuate downward in the doldrums, with the overall price center shifting lower, as both international and domestic futures weakened in tandem. On the macro front, the CME FedWatch tool showed a 98.4% probability that the US Fed would keep interest rates unchanged in June, with only a 1.6% probability of a rate cut; for September, the probability of maintaining the current rate stood at 71.1%, with a 27.8% probability of a rate hike. Data-wise, US May ADP employment exceeded expectations, with private sector payrolls increasing by 122,000, the largest monthly gain since January last year, with key focus on tomorrow evening's US May non-farm payrolls data. Geopolitically, the US-Iran conflict remained unresolved; Trump stated that US-Iran negotiations were progressing smoothly and nearing a deal signing, while the maritime blockade on Iran may extend through September; the Israeli Prime Minister indicated tactical differences with the US but aligned strategic objectives, while the Israeli military stated there would be no ceasefire in Lebanon. Industrial demand side, mainstream quotations for national-standard silver ingots in the Shanghai market against TD remained in a slight discount range, but the discount narrowed further WoW, with market quotations gradually moving toward parity. Most transaction prices fell within a discount of 20-0 yuan/kg against the SGE TD contract. As silver prices declined during the week, downstream consumption recovered slightly WoW, with spot cargo selling pressure at low levels somewhat easing, though overall consumption remained sluggish. Inventory side, downstream consumption and investment sentiment remained cautious, and a notable improvement is unlikely in the near term. Social inventory of silver ingots in Shanghai and Shenzhen continued to accumulate slightly. Gold/silver ratio side, as of June 3, the BMA gold/silver ratio widened further from 62.3 to 63.8 this week. [Key Data] Bearish: Warsh was officially inaugurated as Fed Chairman, with a clearly hawkish tone. Speculative funds withdrew on a large scale, with COMEX silver non-commercial net long positions continuing to shrink. Bullish: Peru's energy crisis persisted, with a national state of emergency declared through year-end. Twelve large mines have implemented staggered production, and May silver production is estimated to have declined by 5%-8%, with the global supply-demand gap still in place. [Recent Focus] June 5: US May non-farm payrolls report June 12: US May CPI data Key focus: US Fed officials' speeches, latest developments in US-Iran negotiations, and the implementation of production restrictions at Peruvian mines. [Price Forecast] Silver is expected to hover at lows next week. Silver prices have yet to break free from the macro headwind environment, and the earlier supply-side speculation narrative has largely faded. Key focus will be on tomorrow evening's non-farm payrolls data, US Fed officials' speeches, and the direction of US-Iran negotiations. In terms of operations, it is recommended to mainly wait and see, pending clear stabilization signals. On the China fundamentals side, downstream buying sentiment remained relatively cautious. Overall consumption recovered slightly as silver prices stayed at short-term lows. Low-level spot selling pressure in the market eased somewhat, but the overall market remained sluggish. Investment sentiment showed no obvious rebound either. Social inventory of spot silver ingots continued to accumulate slightly. The mainstream spot transaction discount in the market is expected to remain within the range of a 10-0 yuan/kg discount to the Shanghai Gold Exchange TD price.

SMM June 4 News: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic market base metals fell across the board. SHFE copper, SHFE aluminum, SHFE lead, and SHFE zinc all dropped over 1%. SHFE tin fell 0.86%. SHFE nickel fell 2.55%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures fell 0.69%, and the most-traded alumina futures fell 2.02%. The most-traded lithium carbonate futures extended the decline from the previous three trading days, falling another 3.17%. The most-traded silicon metal futures fell 0.52%. The most-traded polysilicon futures fell 1.95%. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore dropped 1.47%, rebar fell 0.38%, hot-rolled coil fell 0.32%, and stainless steel fell 2.19%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 4.7%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 2.25%. Overseas market base metals: as of 11:45, LME metals generally fell. LME copper fell 0.09%, LME aluminum fell 0.12%, and LME lead fell 0.37%. LME zinc, LME tin, and LME nickel all fell within 0.3%. Precious metals: as of 11:45, COMEX gold rose 0.58%, and COMEX silver fell 0.05%. Domestic market precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold futures fell 0.2%, and the most-traded SHFE silver futures fell 1.93%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 1.81%, and the most-traded palladium futures fell 3.54%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract rose 0.44% to 3,758 points. As of 11:45 on June 4, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot and fundamentals Aluminum: On June 4, SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) was quoted at 24,130, down 190, at a discount of 190 to the current-month contract, narrowing by 60 (unit: yuan/mt). Futures stopped rising and turned lower today, while South China spot prices bucked the trend and stabilized with an upward bias... Macro front Domestic: [MIIT: From January to April, China's above-scale electronic information manufacturing value-added output was up 14% YoY] From January to April, the value-added output of above-scale electronic information manufacturing was up 14% YoY, 8.4 and 1.4 percentage points higher than the growth rates of overall industry and high-tech manufacturing over the same period, respectively. In April, the value-added output of above-scale electronic information manufacturing was up 15.6% YoY. Among major products, mobile phone production reached 452 million units, up 0.3% YoY, of which smartphone production was 390 million units, up 6.5% YoY; micro-computer equipment production was 95.426 million units, down 10% YoY; integrated circuit production was 176.97 billion units, up 24.7% YoY. (MIIT Weibo) [State Grid Corporation of China's Peak Power Load to Exceed 1.3 Billion kW This Summer, Up ~6% YoY] According to State Grid Corporation of China, this summer's maximum power load in its operating area was projected to exceed 1.3 billion kW, up approximately 6% YoY. To fully ensure safe power grid operation and reliable power supply, State Grid Corporation of China accelerated supply assurance capacity building, continued to improve market-based power trading, and promoted efficient utilization of clean energy. Currently, 168 key projects for peak summer power supply were under accelerated construction. (CCTV) The PBOC announced that, based on the demand of primary dealers in open market operations, the volume of the 7-day reverse repo operation on June 4 was zero. 101.3 billion yuan in reverse repos matured today. US dollar: As of 11:45, the US dollar index fell 0.04% to 99.5. According to the CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through June was 98.4%, with a 1.6% probability of a cumulative 25 bps interest rate cut. The probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through July was 90.2%, with an 8.4% probability of a cumulative 25 bps rate hike and a 1.4% probability of a cumulative 25 bps interest rate cut. US Fed's Logan stated that US Fed officials may need to raise interest rates later this year to bring inflation down to the 2% target. She noted that the US labour market was "broadly in balance," investment in artificial intelligence was booming, and financial conditions remained "accommodative." However, she added that the current inflation trajectory did not appear to be pulling back toward the US Fed's 2% target. "These conditions suggest that current monetary policy is not restraining the economy," "I am increasingly concerned that achieving a full restoration of price stability, while appropriately balancing both sides of the US Fed's dual mandate, may require raising interest rates later this year." The US Fed Beige Book noted that overall, prices rose at a moderate to strong pace, with most districts reporting inflation rates higher than in the previous report. Districts cited energy costs related to the Middle East conflict as a primary driver of inflationary pressures, with impacts extending to shipping, packaging, groceries, and fertilizers. Non-labour costs continued to rise faster than selling prices, raising broader concerns about margin compression. The ability to pass on higher costs varied across industries, particularly among consumer-facing companies. Some regions noted that enterprises across multiple areas had adopted strategies to cope with inflation, including supply chain optimization, product adjustments, reducing supply, and temporarily absorbing higher costs to maintain client demand. (Jin10 Data APP) Data: Data to be released today included US May Challenger enterprise layoffs, US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 30, US May Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, Eurozone April retail sales MoM, Switzerland May CPI MoM, and Switzerland May seasonally adjusted unemployment rate. In addition, at 2:00 the US Fed released the Beige Book on economic conditions, and 2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Logan delivered a speech. At 15:00, the Ministry of Commerce held the first regular press conference of June, and China's refined oil products entered a new round of price adjustment window. ECB President Lagarde delivered a speech, 2027 FOMC voter and Richmond Fed President Barkin participated in a fireside chat, and Bank of England Governor Bailey spoke at the Investment Association conference. Crude oil: As of 11:45, oil prices in both markets declined, with WTI down 0.94% and Brent down 1.03%. According to CCTV News, on local time June 3, US President Trump stated that negotiations with Iran were progressing very well and a new round of talks could be held this weekend. Once an agreement is signed, the Strait of Hormuz will immediately reopen. (Jin10 Data APP) Expectations of an end to Middle East conflicts put oil prices under pressure. Investinglive analyst Eamonn Sheridan stated that reports indicated Israel and Lebanon had reached a ceasefire framework agreement under US guidance, with both sides set to resume full talks during the week of June 22, contingent on Hezbollah's complete withdrawal from southern Lebanon. The geopolitical risk premium in the oil market will digest this headline and largely treat it as a priced-in factor. (Jin10 Data APP) The US-Iran conflict is pushing the global oil market toward a tipping point. US crude oil and petroleum product inventory has fallen to its lowest level in over two decades, while US crude oil exports hit a record high in May, rapidly depleting domestic reserves. Analysts warned that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, oil prices could surge significantly within weeks. According to data released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday, for the week ending May 29, total US crude oil and petroleum product inventory decreased by 10.6 million barrels from the previous week to 1.57 billion barrels, the lowest level since 2004 . Commercial crude oil inventory (excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) fell by 8 million barrels in a single week to 433.7 million barrels, marking the sixth consecutive weekly decline, far exceeding analysts' prior expectations of 3.3 million barrels. (Wall Street Journal) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM June 4 News: Metals market: Overnight, base metals fell broadly across both domestic and overseas markets. LME nickel closed flat at $18,820/mt, LME copper rose 0.07%, while all other metals declined. SHFE aluminum and SHFE nickel both fell over 1%, with SHFE aluminum down 1.14% and SHFE nickel down 1.94%. Other metals fell less than 1%. Alumina main contract edged down 0.07%, and casting aluminum main contract fell 1.07%. Overnight, ferrous metals showed mixed performance. Stainless steel led declines with a 1.89% drop. Iron ore and rebar both edged down, while hot-rolled coil rose 0.12%. For coking coal and coke, coking coal rose 3.32% and coke rose 2.05%. Precious metals: Overnight, COMEX gold fell 1.27% and COMEX silver fell 3.41%. In China, SHFE gold fell 0.74% and SHFE silver fell 2.24%. As of 6:45 on June 4, overnight closing prices: Macro Front China: [PBOC Reverse Repo Scale Continuously Reduced to Zero; Policy Tone of "Maintaining Ample Market Liquidity" Remains Unchanged] In early June, the PBOC gradually reduced reverse repo operations. Today it was further reduced to zero. Notably, on August 7, 2024, the PBOC's 7-day reverse repo operation volume was also zero, under a similar backdrop, mainly due to financial institutions' lack of funding demand in this area. Data showed that while DR001 and DR007 declined at the beginning of the month, the 1-year commercial bank (AAA-rated) interbank certificate of deposit yield fell to 1.4275% on June 1, hitting a new low, and remained at this low level on June 2, which may have been a trigger for the PBOC's consecutive reduction of open market reverse repo scale to zero at the beginning of the month. Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Oriental Jincheng, stated that this was likely mainly due to the absence of sustained significant increases in government bond issuance in the short term, mild credit extension, and declining financing demand from commercial banks toward the PBOC. Based on this trend, outright reverse repos of both tenors in June may continue to shrink. Wang Qing expected that the PBOC would continue to flexibly conduct open market operations based on changes in key market rates such as DR001, DR007, and interbank certificate of deposit yields, guiding market rates to operate steadily around the policy rate through coordinated volume and price adjustments. (Xinhua Finance) (Jin10 Data APP) US dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index rose 0.31% to 99.53, posting a three-day winning streak. The US Fed stated in its Beige Book economic report that the US labour market remained stable in recent weeks, but inflation continued to rise across most of the country due to the impact of the Middle East war on energy prices. Among the 12 regional Fed districts, 10 reported overall economic activity growing at a slight to mild pace. "Districts noted that energy costs related to the Middle East conflict were the primary factor driving up inflationary pressures, with spillover effects spreading to shipping, packaging, groceries, and fertilizers. Several districts noted consumer uncertainty and concerns about rising fuel prices impacting household spending." Rising costs had not yet dealt a significant blow to demand, but enterprises expressed concerns about deteriorating sentiment. "The business outlook for the next six months showed little change in expected growth, as persistently high uncertainty and signs of weak consumer spending weighed on market sentiment." In several districts, manufacturing hiring was the strongest, "supported by national defense-related activities and rising data center demand." Most districts continued to describe the labour market as a state of "low hiring, low firing." The report stated: "Hiring remained selective, primarily focused on critical positions or filling vacancies left by natural attrition." Note: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is about to hold its next monetary policy meeting on June 16-17, which will be the first rate decision since Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh was sworn in in May. (Wallstreetcn) Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan (2026 FOMC voter) said officials may need to raise interest rates later this year to bring inflation back to the US Fed's 2% target. The US labour market "remains broadly balanced," financial conditions are "on the loose side," but inflation does not appear to be pulling back toward the US Fed's 2% target. "If inflation stays above target for too long, it could become entrenched," and she noted inflation appeared to be heading toward a mid-range level around 2.5% rather than fully returning to 2%. (Wallstreetcn) According to CME "FedWatch": The probability of the US Fed maintaining rates unchanged through June was 98.4%, with a 1.6% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point interest rate cut. The probability of the US Fed maintaining rates unchanged through July was 90.2%, with an 8.4% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike, and a 1.4% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point interest rate cut. (Jin10 Data APP) Macro: Today will see the release of US May Challenger job cuts, US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 30, US May Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, Eurozone April retail sales MoM, Switzerland May CPI MoM, and Switzerland May seasonally adjusted unemployment rate. In addition, at 2:00 the US Fed released the Beige Book on economic conditions, and 2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Logan delivered a speech. At 15:00, the Ministry of Commerce will hold its first regular press conference in June, and China's refined oil products will open a new round of price adjustment window. ECB President Lagarde will deliver a speech, 2027 FOMC voter and Richmond Fed President Barkin will participate in a fireside chat, and Bank of England Governor Bailey will speak at the Investment Association conference. Crude oil: Overnight, oil prices rose across both markets, with WTI up 2.6% and Brent up 1.45%, both posting a three-day winning streak, as Middle East tensions escalated again and the market continued to monitor the progress of negotiations between the US and Iran. The US Energy Information Administration report showed that US crude oil inventory fell for the sixth consecutive week, while exports increased and refinery capacity neared saturation. For the week ending May 29, commercial crude oil inventory excluding strategic reserves decreased by 7.974 million barrels to 434 million barrels, approximately 3% below the five-year average for the same period. Strategic petroleum reserves decreased by 8 million barrels due to continued emergency release, falling to 357.1 million barrels. Gasoline inventory ended a 15-week downtrend, increasing by 3.4 million barrels to 215 million barrels, 5% below the five-year average for the same period. Daily gasoline demand decreased by 662,000 barrels to 8.6 million barrels. (Jin10 Data APP) Analysts warned that US oil inventory had fallen to a one-year low, and once a sustained disruption occurs at the Strait of Hormuz, the market buffer would be extremely limited. Rabobank energy strategist Florence Schmit stated: Until agreements are reached on Iran's highly enriched uranium issue, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Lebanon situation, the likelihood of a credible peace deal materializing remains low, and uncertainty is the dominant theme in the current market. (Wallstreetcn)

SMM June 2 News: Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market mostly rose. SHFE copper gained 1.21%, SHFE aluminum rose 1.01%, and SHFE lead edged down. SHFE zinc rose 0.53%. SHFE tin gained 3.63%. SHFE nickel rose 0.61%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures rose 1.15%, the most-traded alumina futures fell 1.49%. The most-traded lithium carbonate futures dropped 3.96%. The most-traded silicon metal futures fell 0.06%. The most-traded polysilicon futures rose 1.54%. Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore gained 0.51%, rebar edged up, hot-rolled coil edged down, and stainless steel rose 1.42%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.41%, and the most-traded coke contract gained 0.66%. Overseas base metals, as of 11:41, LME metals showed mixed performance. LME copper, LME lead, and LME nickel edged down, all with declines within 0.1%. LME aluminum rose 0.96%, LME zinc gained 0.24%. LME tin rose 1.3%. Precious metals, as of 11:41, COMEX gold rose 0.48%, and COMEX silver gained 0.5%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold futures fell 1.17%, and the most-traded SHFE silver futures dropped 0.3%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures rose 0.71%, and the most-traded palladium futures fell 0.71%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract fell 2.04%, closing at 3,776.5 points. As of 11:41 on June 2, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot prices and fundamentals Copper: Today in Guangdong, #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 60 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 0 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 60 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 105,960 yuan/mt, up 1,115 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 105,870 yuan/mt, up 1,130 yuan/mt from the previous trading day... Macro front China: [PBOC net drained 248.8 billion yuan via open market operations today] The PBOC conducted 200 million yuan of 7-day reverse repos, with the operation rate at 1.40%, unchanged from the previous day. A total of 249 billion yuan of reverse repos matured today. US dollar: As of 11:41, the US dollar index fell 0.02%, at 99.18. US Treasury prices fell as signs of a stalemate in peace negotiations between the US and Iran raised concerns that high energy costs would exacerbate inflation and prompt the US Fed to raise interest rates. Monday's sell-off pushed yields higher across the $31 trillion US Treasury market, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising about 6 basis points to nearly 4.5%, while crude oil prices surged more than 7%. The two-year Treasury yield, which is most sensitive to US Fed policy expectations, also rose about 6 basis points to 4.07%. Earlier, Iran had suspended dialogue with the US through intermediaries in protest of Israeli actions. Traders raised expectations that the US Fed's next move would be a rate hike. The swap market showed that traders had fully priced in one rate hike by March 2027 and saw a 50% chance of a hike as early as October. In addition, according to the CME "FedWatch" tool: the probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through June was 98.4%, with a 1.6% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut. The probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through July was 90.2%, with an 8.4% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike and a 1.4% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut. (Jin10 Data) On the data front: The US April JOLTs job openings, Switzerland's April trade balance, UK April central bank mortgage approvals, and the Eurozone May CPI year-on-year preliminary reading and Eurozone May CPI month-on-month preliminary reading were due to be released today. In addition, 2026 FOMC voting member and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari was scheduled to deliver a speech, 2026 FOMC voting member and Cleveland Fed President Hammack was scheduled to speak on monetary policy, and Bank of England Governor Bailey was set to attend a House of Lords hearing. On crude oil: As of 11:41, oil prices in both markets moved sideways, with WTI down 0.5% and Brent down 0.38%. CNN reported on June 1, citing a regional source familiar with the US-Iran negotiations, that talks had gotten back on track. Iranian media had previously reported that negotiations between Iran and the US were suspended due to Israel's continued attacks on Lebanon. However, US President Trump subsequently stated that he had spoken with the Israeli side and that negotiations with Iran were "moving fast." (Xinhua News Agency) Oil prices stabilized after posting their largest gains in nearly a month, while uncertainty over the prospects of US-Iran peace negotiations heightened the risk of prolonged disruptions to energy supplies from the Persian Gulf. According to US media, Trump said that a memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran on reopening the Strait of Hormuz was expected to be reached within the coming week. However, he also noted that the US side still needed to "finalise a few details" before a final deal was reached. Last month, oil prices once pulled back, buoyed by market optimism that the two sides were likely to reach a deal. The day before, reports emerged that Iran had halted negotiations with the US, threatened to block the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and planned to fully blockade the Strait of Hormuz. Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC, said: "If there are more signs that the parties are no longer actively negotiating, then the 'safety cushion' that the market had previously relied on in its pricing — namely expectations of the best outcome — will also disappear." She added: "During this conflict, we have already witnessed too many twists and turns, and nothing is set in stone at this point." (Jin10 Data) In addition, Russian local authorities said a fire broke out at the Ilsky Oil Refinery in the Krasnodar region following a drone attack. (Jin10 Data) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM June 2 News: Metals market: Overnight, metals generally rose across both domestic and overseas markets, with SHFE lead being the only decliner, down about 0.09%. LME tin and SHFE tin both rose over 2%, with LME tin up 2.63% and SHFE tin up 2.46%. LME copper, LME aluminum, LME zinc, LME nickel, SHFE copper, and SHFE nickel all rose over 1% (LME copper +1.97%, LME aluminum +1.59%, LME zinc +1.09%, LME nickel +1.42%, SHFE copper +1.12%, SHFE nickel +1.26%). The remaining metals gained less than 1%, with the alumina front-month contract down 0.69% and the foundry aluminum front-month contract up 0.41%. Overnight, ferrous metals collectively rose, with stainless steel leading the gains at +1.52%, and iron ore up 0.51%. Hot-rolled coil and rebar saw minor fluctuations. In coking coal and coke, coking coal rose 2.19% and coke rose 0.84%. Precious metals: Overnight, COMEX gold fell 1.7% and COMEX silver dropped 0.96%. In China, SHFE gold fell 1.28% and SHFE silver declined 0.73%. As of 6:43 AM on June 2, overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [NDRC, National Energy Administration and other departments issued the Notice on Printing and Distributing the Guidelines for Accounting of Non-Fossil Energy Power Consumption (Trial)] On June 1, the NDRC, National Energy Administration and other departments issued the Notice on Printing and Distributing the Guidelines for Accounting of Non-Fossil Energy Power Consumption (Trial). It mentioned that the development and reform commissions, energy bureaus, ecological environment departments, statistics bureaus, and data management departments of all provinces, autonomous regions, municipalities directly under the central government, and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, as well as State Grid Corporation of China, China Southern Power Grid Co., Ltd., Inner Mongolia Power (Group) Co., Ltd., relevant power generation enterprises, Beijing and Guangzhou Power Exchange Centers, China Renewable Energy Engineering Institute, and China Electricity Council: To implement the major decisions and plans of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, and to promote the improvement of the carbon emission statistical accounting system, we have formulated the Guidelines for Accounting of Non-Fossil Energy Power Consumption (Trial), which are hereby issued to you. Please carry out relevant work accordingly. These guidelines shall be implemented on a trial basis from the date of issuance and shall be used for accounting of non-fossil energy power consumption for 2026 and subsequent years. If there are any issues or suggestions during the trial period, please provide timely feedback to the NDRC and the National Energy Administration. Shanghai Mayor Gong Zheng chaired a standing meeting of the municipal government on June 1. The meeting approved in principle the Shanghai Plan for Accelerating New-Type Industrialisation and Building a Modern Industrial System under the 15th Five-Year Plan, and noted the need to develop and strengthen a number of emerging pillar industries and make forward-looking arrangements for future industries. The meeting emphasized the need to adhere to innovation-driven development and forge competitive advantages in industry, accelerate breakthroughs in new technologies, R&D and application of new products, and cultivation and opening of new scenarios, support the efficient transformation and industrialisation of scientific and technological achievements, and turn more "flowers of technology" into "fruits of industry." The CPC Chengdu Municipal Committee and the Chengdu Municipal People's Government issued the Opinions on Accelerating the Building of a National Advanced Manufacturing Base. The opinions proposed forward-looking deployment of future industries, accelerating the layout of new tracks including nuclear fusion energy, brain-computer interfaces, quantum technology, intelligent sensing, embodied AI, sixth-generation mobile communications, biomanufacturing, cell and gene therapy, flying cars, and frontier new materials. US dollar: As of the overnight close, the US dollar index rose 0.26% to 99.19. Data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed that, driven by growth in new orders and production, the US May ISM Manufacturing Index rose to 54, hitting a four-year high. US manufacturing has sent expansion signals for five consecutive months, indicating that manufacturing is regaining vitality amid a surge in artificial intelligence (AI) investment, more favourable tax policy, and reduced trade policy uncertainty. Persistent cost pressure may mean US consumers will face higher prices, as the US Fed's preferred inflation gauge rose 3.8% YoY in April. (Wallstreetcn) According to CME "FedWatch": The probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through June was 98.4%, with a 1.6% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut. The probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through July was 90.2%, with an 8.4% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike and a 1.4% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut. (Jin10 Data APP) Ozan Tarman, Vice Chairman of Global Macro at Deutsche Bank, said the US Fed's next move will not be a rate hike. Tarman said the newly appointed Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh will try to "convince his colleagues to stay put." "Everyone is excitedly talking about how he might completely change his stance and even convince Trump that a significant rate hike is possible this year — that seems a bit excessive to me." "The best approach is to wait and see, and let the political dynamics in the US, the Strait of Hormuz, and even the UK play out on their own," Tarman said. Tarman noted that a European Central Bank rate hike in June appears to be a foregone conclusion, but whether Lagarde will raise rates in September will depend on the progress of Middle East peace negotiations. (Bloomberg) Torsten Slok, Chief Economist at Apollo Global Management Inc., said that AI infrastructure construction will push up inflation in the early stages, which will prevent new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh from cutting interest rates as quickly as he had previously hinted. "We may have to wait a while longer, because in the early stages, the AI boom will certainly push up inflation," he said. From the perspective of semiconductor prices, energy prices, and labour costs, the risk of price pressure is "very clear." (Bloomberg TV) Macro: Today, the US April JOLTs job openings, Switzerland April trade balance, UK April central bank mortgage approvals, Eurozone May CPI annual rate preliminary reading, and Eurozone May CPI monthly rate preliminary reading will be released. In addition, 2026 FOMC voter and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari will deliver a speech, 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Hammack will speak on monetary policy, and Bank of England Governor Bailey will attend a House of Lords hearing. Crude oil: As of the overnight close, oil prices on both markets rose, with WTI up 5.85% and Brent up 4.53%, driven by the breakdown of US-Iran negotiations and blockade risks. Earlier, Iranian media reported that Iran would suspend communication with the US through intermediaries and planned to completely block the Strait of Hormuz, sending crude oil prices sharply higher. This morning, US President Trump said he expected to reach an agreement with Iran "within the next week," extending the current ceasefire arrangement and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Trump said the negotiations were progressing well and expressed optimism about reaching a deal. (CCTV) (Wallstreetcn APP) According to US sources, the Trump administration continued to release large volumes from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve to ease the energy supply crisis triggered by the US-Iran conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Data released by the US Department of Energy (DOE) showed that the Strategic Petroleum Reserve decreased by 8 million barrels of crude oil last week, following declines of 9.1 million barrels and a record 9.9 million barrels in the two preceding weeks. As of now, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventory has fallen to 357.1 million barrels, the lowest level since January 2024. (Wallstreetcn) Three sources said OPEC+ producers will most likely agree at their meeting on Sunday to further increase crude oil production quotas in July. However, the Iran war has so far caused some countries to fall short of their previous production increase targets. A further increase in production quotas would indicate that the organisation is gradually resuming normal operations, despite disruptions caused by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the unexpected withdrawal of the UAE in May. According to sources, OPEC+ is expected to increase production by approximately 188,000 barrels per day in July, the same as the increase agreed for June, which had been reduced from 206,000 barrels per day after taking into account the UAE's withdrawal. (Jin10 Data APP)

[SMM Tin Morning Brief: The Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Maintained a Sideways Trend During the Night Session, with Low Market Trading Activity]

SMM June 1 Update: Metals market: Last Friday's overnight session saw base metals collectively decline in both domestic and overseas markets. LME copper and LME tin both led the decline with a 0.98% drop. SHFE zinc fell 0.86%, while declines in other metals were relatively small. The alumina front-month contract closed flat at 2,888 yuan/mt, and the foundry aluminum front-month contract fell 0.26%. Last Friday's overnight ferrous metals session showed mixed performance. Stainless steel fell 0.74%, and iron ore dropped 0.26%. Hot-rolled coil and rebar both rose around 0.2%. In coking coal and coke, coking coal rose 0.7% and coke rose 0.89%. Last Friday's overnight precious metals session: COMEX gold rose 0.83%, up 1.03% on the week but down 1.29% on the month, marking a third consecutive monthly decline. COMEX silver fell 0.43% overnight last Friday, down 0.81% on the week but up 2.1% on the month. In China, SHFE gold rose 1.61%, down 0.23% on the week and down 1.61% on the month, also recording a third consecutive monthly decline alongside the overseas market. SHFE silver rose 0.64% overnight last Friday, down 1.23% on the week but up 3.08% on the month. As of 8:25 AM on May 30, last Friday's overnight closing prices: Macro Front China: From January to April, total operating revenue of national state-owned and state-holding enterprises fell 0.5% YoY, while total profits rose 1.9% YoY. Specifically, total operating revenue was 26.27 trillion yuan, and total profits were 1.37 trillion yuan. Taxes payable rose 3.9% YoY to 2.12 trillion yuan. At the end of April, the asset-liability ratio of state-owned enterprises was 65.5%, up 0.4 percentage points YoY. (Xinhua News Agency) On May 29, it was reported that in Q1, China's integrated circuit exports reached $72.47 billion, up 77.5% YoY, of which memory product exports reached $45.99 billion, up 174.2% YoY. The surge in memory product exports also transmitted to supply chain service segments. The head of a logistics company said that since the beginning of this year, the company's orders related to memory exports had doubled, with large orders exceeding 100 million yuan per transaction increasing significantly. Industry insiders noted that the explosive growth in memory product exports was driven by both cyclical factors of tight global supply and demand, as well as structural industrial changes including industry chain upgrades and market share gains in China's domestic memory sector. The Deputy Secretary General of the Shenzhen Electronics Chamber of Commerce said that compared with March last year, memory prices had risen nearly tenfold, with some even seeing more than tenfold increases. The rise was mainly due to the significant price increases, which drove up the total (export) value. Domestic brand prices had a significant price spread compared with ex-China brands, making them very competitive. (CCTV Finance) [MIIT and Six Other Departments: Encouraging Equipment Manufacturing in Aerospace, Shipbuilding, Automotive, Robotics and Other Sectors] On May 29, the General Office of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, the General Office of the Central Publicity Department, the General Office of MIIT, the General Office of the Ministry of Education, the General Office of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council, the General Office of the National Cultural Heritage Administration, and the General Office of the All-China Federation of Trade Unions jointly issued a notice on promoting industrial culture, protecting industrial heritage, and developing industrial tourism. The notice mentioned enriching the supply of industrial tourism products. It encouraged the active development of industrial heritage tourism, promoting the revitalization and utilization of industrial sites through creative design, new business format integration, and facade renovation, and developing new scenarios, formats, and models for industrial tourism. It vigorously promoted "factory tours," encouraging enterprises in equipment manufacturing sectors such as aerospace, shipbuilding, automotive, and robotics, consumer goods industries such as textiles and apparel, arts and crafts, and food processing, as well as e-commerce logistics, to innovatively launch programs including production process observation, simulated operations, hands-on experiences, and product customization, while ensuring production safety and confidentiality requirements, to create themed sightseeing factories. It called for the orderly expansion of smart industrial tourism, supporting the use of BeiDou, artificial intelligence, ultra-high-definition video, virtual reality, autonomous driving, and other digital technologies and equipment to create immersive and intelligent industrial tourism experiences. It supported industrial tourism venues in developing themed commerce, immersive experiences, specialty markets, and other formats to create "industrial tourism+" consumption scenarios. It encouraged localities to launch a batch of high-quality industrial tourism routes and brands with regional and industry characteristics. It encouraged industrial enterprises to strengthen product promotion, expand product sales, and build stronger enterprise brands through industrial tourism. The Shanghai International Energy Exchange announced adjustments to the daily price limit for crude oil and low-sulfur fuel oil futures contracts to 17%, the hedging position trading margin ratio to 18%, and the general position trading margin ratio to 19%; it also adjusted trading limits for related crude oil and low-sulfur fuel oil futures contracts. US dollar: As of last Friday's overnight close, the US dollar index fell 0.07% to 98.93, down 0.39% on the week but up 0.85% on the month. Optimistic expectations about the extension of the ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran weakened safe-haven demand. The US April PCE price index rose 3.8% YoY, the highest level since May 2023, in line with expectations, compared with the previous reading of 3.5%. The US April core PCE price index rose 3.3% YoY, hitting a new high since November 2023, also in line with expectations, compared with the previous reading of 3.2%. Additionally, separate data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed that the US economy grew at an annualized rate of 1.6% in Q1, below the preliminary data. The initial estimate released last month showed growth of 2%. The data indicated that US consumers became more cautious amid cost-of-living pressures and uneven labor market performance. The Middle East conflict pushed up fuel and other raw material prices, with the impact transmitting through the broader economy and sending consumer confidence to record lows. Meanwhile, this inflation data is likely to further reinforce warnings from some US Fed officials that the US Fed would need to consider raising interest rates if price pressures fail to ease. Kevin Warsh, who was just sworn in as Fed Chairman on May 22, may need to convince other officials that inflation expectations can be controlled without rate hikes. (Wallstreetcn) Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari stated that it was too early to conclude that interest rates need to rise, but he believed the US Fed should keep all policy options on the table. He said it was too early to conclude that an immediate rate hike was needed. He noted the need to continue monitoring economic data and developments in the Middle East conflict before considering whether policy adjustments were necessary. Kashkari pointed out that under both the most optimistic and most pessimistic scenarios, inflation could remain significantly elevated for an extended period. He was closely monitoring this risk, as well as the possibility that inflation expectations could become unanchored. (Wallstreetcn) US Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman stated that it was too early to judge the impact of the Iran conflict on inflation, and policymakers needed to look through temporary price shocks. She supported officials retaining language in their statement after last month's policy meeting that hinted at the possibility of further interest rate cuts. She said that as she thought about the future path of monetary policy, she wanted a clearer understanding of the economic impact of the Middle East conflict and the persistence of those effects. As long as credibility in the commitment to achieving the inflation target was maintained, it was appropriate to look through temporarily elevated inflation primarily driven by rising energy prices. She expected the "one-off" impact of tariffs implemented by US President Trump to fade. (Wallstreetcn) Macro front: This week, China is set to release data including China's May RatingDog Manufacturing PMI and China's May RatingDog Services PMI. The US is set to release data including the US May S&P Global Manufacturing PMI final, US May ISM Manufacturing PMI, US April construction spending MoM, US April JOLTs job openings, US May ADP employment, US May S&P Global Services PMI final, US May ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, US April factory orders MoM, US May Challenger job cuts, US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 30, US May unemployment rate, US May seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls, US May average hourly earnings YoY, and US May average hourly earnings MoM. The UK is set to release data including UK May Nationwide house price index MoM, UK May Manufacturing PMI final, UK April central bank mortgage approvals, UK May Services PMI final, and UK May Halifax seasonally adjusted house price index MoM. The Eurozone is set to release data including Eurozone May Manufacturing PMI final, Eurozone April unemployment rate, Eurozone May CPI YoY preliminary, Eurozone May CPI MoM preliminary, Eurozone May Services PMI final, Eurozone April PPI MoM, Eurozone April retail sales MoM, Eurozone Q1 GDP YoY revised, and Eurozone Q1 seasonally adjusted employment QoQ final. Switzerland is set to release data including Swiss April real retail sales YoY, Swiss April trade balance, Swiss May CPI MoM, and Swiss May seasonally adjusted unemployment rate. France is set to release data including France May Manufacturing PMI final, France May Services PMI final, France April industrial output MoM, and France April trade balance. Germany is set to release data including Germany May Manufacturing PMI final and Germany May Services PMI final. In addition, Australia Q1 GDP YoY and Canada May employment figures will also be released. Crude oil: As of last Friday's overnight close, oil prices in both markets fell, with WTI down 1.28% and Brent down 0.87%. On a weekly basis, oil prices suffered heavy losses, with WTI down 9.15% and Brent down 8.3%, both recording a second consecutive weekly decline and the largest weekly drop since April. WTI fell 16.47% on the month and Brent fell 16.77% on the month, with WTI posting its largest monthly decline since November 2021 and Brent its largest monthly decline since March 2020. According to Xinhua News Agency, US President Trump said on the 29th that the US and Iran had reached agreement on secondary issues beyond Iran's nuclear program and Strait of Hormuz passage, sending crude oil prices lower. The oil market in May underwent a clear three-phase evolution: Early month (May 1-6): Oil prices pulled back slightly from near four-year highs, but Brent briefly surged to around $114 after OPEC+ announced a modest production increase and shipping attacks, before plunging to the $101-106 range following signals of US-Iran de-escalation. Mid-month (May 7-20): Oil prices oscillated as ceasefire breakdowns alternated with mediation progress, with the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz maintaining an elevated risk premium. Month-end (May 21-29): Driven by reports of a US-Iran agreement in principle to reopen the strait, Brent briefly fell to the $93-100 low range, WTI touched $88-92, and Brent closed around $92. (Wallstreetcn) Nevertheless, analysts emphasized that until the conflict truly ends and the strait resumes normal passage, global crude oil inventories will continue to be depleted by approximately 10 to 14 million barrels per day, and physical market fundamentals remain tight. The decline in oil prices driven by ceasefire expectations reflected more the pricing of future supply recovery rather than a fundamental change in the current supply-demand pattern. (Wallstreetcn) Recent reports revealed that calculations by Goldman Sachs showed global crude oil inventories could fall below the equivalent of 100 days of global demand as early as the end of May. Goldman Sachs estimated that as of the end of April, global crude oil inventories were equivalent to approximately 101 days of global demand, and were expected to decline to 98 days by the end of May. Of this, "visible inventories" observable through satellites and other means were estimated at only 73 days of demand. Reports indicated that currently only a few vessels can pass through the Strait of Hormuz each day, resulting in a daily global crude oil supply loss exceeding 10 million barrels. (Wallstreetcn)