SMM April 16: Metal market: As of the daytime close, domestic base metals generally rose, with SHFE tin being the only decliner, down 0.07%. SHFE aluminum led the gains with a 2.89% increase, while the rest of the metals gained less than 1%. The alumina front-month contract rose 1.44%, and the foundry aluminum front-month contract rose 1.62%. In addition, the lithium carbonate front-month contract rose 4.2%, polysilicon rose 1.08%, silicon metal rose 0.89%, and the Europe containerized freight front-month contract rose 4.75% to close at 2,044.7. Ferrous metals all posted gains to varying degrees except for stainless steel, which fell 0.03%. Iron ore rose 3.1%. Hot-rolled coil and rebar rose over 1%, with hot-rolled coil up 1.22% and rebar up 1.06%. Coking coal and coke side, coking coal rose 2.32% and coke rose 1.94%. Overseas market, as of 15:04, overseas base metals generally rose, with LME tin leading the gains at 1.41%, LME aluminum up 1.31%, and the rest of the metals gaining less than 1%. Precious metals, as of 15:04, COMEX gold rose 0.51% and COMEX silver rose 1.08%. In China, SHFE gold rose 0.17% and SHFE silver rose 1.43%. In addition, the platinum front-month contract rose 0.45%, and the palladium front-month contract fell 0.66%. Market data as of 15:04 today Macro Front China: [NBS: Q1 GDP Up 5% YoY! National Economy Off to a Good Start with Accelerating Industrial Production Growth] According to preliminary estimates by the NBS, Q1 GDP reached 33,419.3 billion yuan, up 5.0% YoY in real terms, accelerating by 0.5 percentage points from Q4 last year. By industry, the primary sector's value added was 1,194.1 billion yuan, up 3.8% YoY; the secondary sector's value added was 11,613.5 billion yuan, up 4.9%; and the tertiary sector's value added was 20,611.7 billion yuan, up 5.2%. On a QoQ basis, Q1 GDP grew 1.3%. In Q1, the value added of China's above-scale industrial enterprises rose 6.1% YoY, accelerating by 1.1 percentage points from Q4 last year. By three major categories, the value added of the mining industry rose 6.0% YoY, manufacturing rose 6.4%, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water rose 4.3%. The value added of equipment manufacturing rose 8.9% YoY, and that of high-tech manufacturing rose 12.5%, outpacing the overall above-scale industrial value added by 2.8 and 6.4 percentage points, respectively. By economic type, value added of state-controlled enterprises increased 4.8% YoY; joint-stock enterprises rose 6.6%, foreign-funded enterprises and those with investment from Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan rose 3.9%; and private enterprises rose 6.1%. By product, production of 3D printing equipment, lithium-ion batteries, and industrial robots increased 54.0%, 40.8%, and 33.2% YoY, respectively. In March, value added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased 5.7% YoY and 0.28% MoM. In March, the manufacturing PMI was 50.4%, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous month; the enterprise production and business activity expectations index was 53.4%. In January–February, industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide recorded total profits of 1,024.6 billion yuan, up 15.2% YoY. [National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): China’s Imports and Exports Are Well Positioned to Maintain Solid Growth] Mao Shengyong, Deputy Director of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), said at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that, based on years of practice, regardless of how the external environment changes, even during the pandemic when the market worried about whether China’s foreign trade could be sustained, China’s imports and exports have remained very strong. This was attributable to enterprises working hard to strengthen their fundamentals, enhance the technological content of products, and improve overall competitiveness. Overall, China’s imports and exports are still well positioned to maintain relatively solid growth. (Wallstreetcn) The PBOC conducted 500 million yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations in the open market, with the operation rate unchanged at 1.40%; 500 million yuan of reverse repos matured today. US dollar: As of 15:04, the US dollar index fell 0.05% to 98.03, marking a nine-session decline. Musalem of the US Fed said on Wednesday that high oil prices could push the underlying inflation rate for the remainder of this year to nearly one percentage point above the US Fed’s 2% target, and the US Fed may need to keep interest rates unchanged. Musalem said, “We are very likely to see some pass-through from oil prices to core inflation.” By the end of this year, the core measure of price increases would be “slightly below 3%, perhaps around 3%,” and there were risks of a further rise. Musalem said the US Fed may keep its policy rate in the current 3.50%–3.75% range “for some time,” while monitoring inflation, employment, and economic data in the coming months, and many of his colleagues shared the same view. The impact of last year’s tariff increases may gradually fade this quarter, and housing price inflation is also easing. As oil prices rise, inflation in a range of services has stayed high; if inflation begins to rise and could boost inflation expectations, he would be open to raising rates. Musalem also stated that the oil market is experiencing "the third negative supply shock in 12 months," which, combined with rising tariff rates and stricter immigration regulations, poses risks to both inflation prospects and the job market, potentially impacting economic growth. He predicted this year's economic growth would slow down but remain between 1.5% and 2%. (Jin10 Data APP) According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of the US Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April stands at 1.6%, while the likelihood of maintaining unchanged rates is 98.4%. For June, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut is 0%, with a 98% chance of unchanged rates and a 2% chance of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike. (Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: Today, the UK will release February's three-month GDP monthly rate, manufacturing output monthly rate, seasonally adjusted goods trade balance, and industrial output monthly rate. The eurozone will announce March's final CPI annual and monthly rates. The US will report initial jobless claims for the week ending April 11, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for April, and March's industrial output monthly rate. Additionally, key events include: US Fed Governor Bowman speaking at the IIF forum; the Fed releasing its Beige Book; Bank of England Governor Bailey discussing global economic imbalances during IMF meetings; China's NBS publishing the monthly report on residential property prices in 70 major cities; a State Council press conference on national economic performance; the ECB releasing March's monetary policy meeting minutes; FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams delivering remarks; US Fed Governor Milan speaking; and the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting. Crude oil side: As of 15:04, oil prices showed mixed performance, with WTI down 0.06% and Brent up 0.2%. Market uncertainty persists over whether US-Iran peace talks will yield an agreement. Last week, US crude exports surged to near-record highs to meet demand from Asian and European buyers seeking alternatives to disrupted Middle Eastern supplies due to the Iran conflict. This brought the US close to becoming a net crude exporter for the first time since WWII. However, analysts and traders noted the US is rapidly approaching its export capacity limit. Government data released Wednesday showed net crude imports (exports minus imports) narrowed to 66,000 barrels per day, the lowest since weekly records began in 2001, while exports rose to 5.2 million barrels per day, a seven-month high. Annual data indicates the US last achieved net exporter status in 1943. Jin10 Data APP) Documents released by the White House show that US President Trump issued multiple oil pipeline permits on Wednesday, including one for a new pipeline aimed at facilitating the transportation of crude oil and petroleum products between the US and Canada. The construction permit has been granted to Bakken Pipeline for pipeline facility construction in Burke County, North Dakota. Additionally, he issued other permits for the maintenance and operation of existing pipelines near border areas in North Dakota and Michigan. (Jin10 Data APP) SMM Daily Review ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

[SMM Aluminum Price Weekly Review: Supply Shortages Outside China Supported Prices to Hold Up Well, China Focused on the Turning Point of Aluminum Ingot Social Inventory]

[Price Review] The US-Iran two-week ceasefire agreement continued to boost market sentiment. This week, precious metal prices rebounded amid the possibility of a US-Iran ceasefire agreement and news of Trump's tariff exemptions. However, as the weekend approached, uncertainties emerged in ceasefire negotiations, with short-term geopolitical tensions showing no substantive easing. Inflation concerns reinforced the US Fed's hawkish signals, limiting gains in precious metal prices. Short-term macro sentiment was generally warm, with capital flow momentum slightly recovering, but industrial demand had not recovered. Suppliers moved inventory and shipped to delivery warehouses, and the spot market supply appeared slightly in surplus. Gold/silver ratio side, as of April 15, the LBMA gold/silver ratio stood at 61x. During the short-term precious metals rebound, silver price movements were slightly stronger than gold prices. [Key Data] Bearish: US March Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.9% MoM and 3.3% YoY, hitting the highest level since 2024 IMF downgraded growth expectations — the International Monetary Fund cut its 2026 global economic growth forecast by 0.2 percentage points to 3.1% Bullish: US March Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 4% YoY, the highest since February 2023, but significantly below market expectations of 4.6% Data and macro news releases to watch next week include: April 17: US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 11, US April Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, US March industrial production MoM, and Eurozone CPI data. April 21: Confirmation hearing for Fed Chairman nominee Warsh Geopolitics side, the temporary ceasefire agreement will expire on April 22. Whether the ceasefire is extended or a permanent agreement is reached will have a significant impact on global market risk appetite. [Price Forecast] Although the short-term US-Iran ceasefire foundation remains fragile, the macro atmosphere next week is expected to be relatively bullish, and market traders still hold optimistic expectations regarding the trajectory of the US-Iran conflict. China fundamentals side, just-in-time procurement demand from silver nitrate, silver powder, and silver paste enterprises showed no signs of improvement, and the slight inventory buildup in the spot silver ingot market is unlikely to improve in the short term. After the SHFE April delivery concluded, although some banking institutions and traders actively purchased and built positions, downstream manufacturers showed low enthusiasm for purchasing. The rising trend in spot silver ingot social inventory is unlikely to reverse, and spot transaction expectations are expected to remain at parity or may even see slight discounts. Although silver prices may continue to rebound next week amid the macro atmosphere, the trend remains full of uncertainty. Before the US Fed sends a clear interest rate cut signal and the precious metals bull market resumes, silver prices will continue to consolidate in a range-bound pattern.

According to preliminary estimates by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), China's GDP in Q1 totaled 33,419.3 billion yuan, up 5.0% YoY in real terms, accelerating by 0.5 percentage points from Q4 of the previous year. By industry, the value added of the primary industry was 1,194.1 billion yuan, up 3.8% YoY; the value added of the secondary industry was 11,613.5 billion yuan, up 4.9%; and the value added of the tertiary industry was 20,611.7 billion yuan, up 5.2%. On a QoQ basis, GDP grew by 1.3% in Q1. The National Economy Achieved a Good Start in Q1 In Q1, under the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, all regions and departments thoroughly implemented the decisions and plans of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, stepped up the implementation of more proactive and effective macro policies, and worked to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations. Efforts were accelerated to foster and develop new quality productive forces. Production and supply growth picked up, market demand continued to improve, the employment situation remained generally stable, market prices saw a mild rebound, high-quality development advanced toward new and better directions, the national economy achieved a good start, and development resilience and vitality were further demonstrated. According to preliminary estimates, China's GDP in Q1 totaled 33,419.3 billion yuan, up 5.0% YoY in real terms, accelerating by 0.5 percentage points from Q4 of the previous year. By industry, the value added of the primary industry was 1,194.1 billion yuan, up 3.8% YoY; the value added of the secondary industry was 11,613.5 billion yuan, up 4.9%; and the value added of the tertiary industry was 20,611.7 billion yuan, up 5.2%. On a QoQ basis, GDP grew by 1.3% in Q1. I. Agricultural Production Was in Good Shape, and the Livestock Industry Remained Generally Stable In Q1, the value added of agriculture (crop farming) grew 3.7% YoY. The sown area of winter wheat remained stable, seedling conditions continued to improve, and spring plowing and preparation progressed smoothly. According to the national planting intention survey, the intended sown area for grain this year remained generally stable, with the rice area basically flat and the corn area stable with a slight increase. In Q1, the production of pork, beef, mutton, and poultry totaled 26.62 million mt, up 4.8% YoY, of which pork and poultry production increased by 4.2% and 9.3% respectively, while beef and mutton production decreased by 1.4% and 2.0% respectively; milk production increased by 3.4%, and egg production decreased by 3.1%. In Q1, hog slaughter reached 200.26 million heads, up 2.8% YoY; the quarter-end hog inventory stood at 423.58 million heads, up 1.5%. II. Industrial Production Growth Accelerated, with Equipment Manufacturing and High-Tech Manufacturing Growing Rapidly In Q1, the value added of China's industrial enterprises above designated size grew 6.1% YoY, accelerating by 1.1 percentage points from Q4 of the previous year. By three major sectors, the value added of the mining industry grew 6.0% YoY, manufacturing grew 6.4%, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water grew 4.3%. The value added of equipment manufacturing grew 8.9% YoY, and that of high-tech manufacturing grew 12.5%, outpacing the overall value added of industrial enterprises above designated size by 2.8 and 6.4 percentage points, respectively. By economic type, the value added of state-owned holding enterprises grew 4.8% YoY; joint-stock enterprises grew 6.6%, foreign-invested and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan-invested enterprises grew 3.9%; and private enterprises grew 6.1%. By product, the production of 3D printing equipment, lithium-ion batteries, and industrial robots grew 54.0%, 40.8%, and 33.2% YoY, respectively. In March, the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size grew 5.7% YoY and up 0.28% MoM. In March, the manufacturing PMI stood at 50.4%, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous month; the expectations index for enterprise production and business activities was 53.4%. In January–February, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide reached 1,024.6 billion yuan, up 15.2% YoY. III. Services Sector Grew Rapidly, with Strong Momentum in Modern Services In Q1, the value added of the services sector grew 5.2% YoY. Among them, leasing and business services, information transmission, software and information technology services, financial services, transportation, warehousing and postal services, and accommodation and catering grew 12.2%, 10.6%, 6.5%, 4.3%, and 4.3%, respectively. In March, the national services sector production index grew 5.0% YoY. Among them, the production indices of information transmission, software and information technology services, leasing and business services, and financial services grew 11.8%, 10.1%, and 6.7%, respectively. In January–February, the operating revenue of services enterprises above designated size grew 7.4% YoY. In March, the business activity index for the services sector was 50.2%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month; the business activity expectations index for the services sector was 54.8%. Among them, the business activity indices of railway transportation, telecommunications, radio, television and satellite transmission services, monetary and financial services, and insurance were in the relatively high prosperity range above 55.0%. IV. Market Sales Picked Up, with Rapid Growth in Services Retail In Q1, total retail sales of consumer goods reached 12,769.5 billion yuan, up 2.4% YoY, accelerating by 0.7 percentage points from Q4 of the previous year. By location of business units, urban retail sales of consumer goods reached 11,057.4 billion yuan, up 2.3% YoY; rural retail sales of consumer goods reached 1,712.1 billion yuan, up 3.1%. By type of consumption, retail sales of goods reached 11,307.2 billion yuan, up 2.2%; catering revenue reached 1,462.3 billion yuan, up 4.2%. Sales of basic living necessities and some upgraded goods grew relatively fast. On a YoY basis, retail sales of grain, oil and food, garments, footwear, hats, knitwear and textiles, communication equipment, and gold, silver and jewelry by units above designated size increased by 10.0%, 9.3%, 20.8% and 12.6% respectively. In March, total retail sales of consumer goods were up 1.7% YoY and up 0.14% MoM. In Q1, retail sales of services were up 5.5% YoY, with the growth rate on par with the full year of the previous year. Among them, retail sales of communication and information services, tourism, consulting and rental services, and culture, sports and leisure services grew relatively fast. In Q1, national online retail sales of goods and services reached 4,977.4 billion yuan, up 8.0% YoY. Of this, online retail sales of goods reached 3,161.4 billion yuan, up 7.5%, accounting for 24.8% of total retail sales of consumer goods; online retail sales of services reached 1,816 billion yuan, up 8.8%. V. Fixed Asset Investment Grew Steadily, Infrastructure Investment Grew Relatively Fast In Q1, national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 10,270.8 billion yuan, up 1.7% YoY, compared with a decline of 3.8% for the full year of the previous year; excluding real estate development investment, national fixed asset investment grew by 4.8%. By sector, infrastructure investment was up 8.9% YoY, manufacturing investment was up 4.1%, and real estate development investment was down 11.2%. The floor space of commercial buildings sold nationwide was 195.25 million m², down 10.4% YoY; sales of newly-built commercial buildings totaled 1,726.2 billion yuan, down 16.7%. By industry, investment in the primary industry was up 15.9% YoY, investment in the secondary industry was up 5.8%, and investment in the tertiary industry was down 1.0%. Private investment was down 2.2% YoY, with the decline narrowing by 4.2 percentage points from the full year of the previous year; excluding real estate development investment, private investment grew by 1.3%. Investment in high-tech industries was up 7.4% YoY, of which investment in computer and office equipment manufacturing, aerospace and aircraft equipment manufacturing, and information services grew by 28.3%, 19.0% and 20.9% respectively. In March, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was up 0.52% MoM. VI. Trade in Goods Grew Rapidly, Trade Structure Continued to Optimize In Q1, total value of goods imports and exports reached 11,838 billion yuan, up 15.0% YoY. Of this, exports reached 6,846.7 billion yuan, up 11.9%; imports reached 4,991.3 billion yuan, up 19.6%. Ordinary Trade imports and exports were up 9.0% YoY. Imports and exports to countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative grew by 14.2%. Imports and exports of private enterprises grew by 16.2%, accounting for 57.3% of total imports and exports. Exports of electromechanical products grew by 18.3%. In March, total imports and exports reached 4,104.6 billion yuan, up 9.2% YoY. VII. Consumer Price Increases Expanded, and Industrial Producer Prices Continued to Rebound In Q1, the national consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.9% YoY, with the increase expanding by 0.4 percentage points from Q4 of the previous year. By category, prices of food, tobacco, alcohol and dining out rose by 0.5% YoY, clothing by 1.8%, housing fell by 0.2%, household goods and services rose by 2.3%, transportation and communication fell by 1.1%, education, culture and entertainment rose by 1.0%, healthcare rose by 1.8%, and other goods and services rose by 14.1%. Among food, tobacco, alcohol and dining out prices, pork prices fell by 11.3%, grain prices fell by 0.3%, fresh fruit prices rose by 4.3%, and fresh vegetable prices rose by 7.6%. Core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 1.2% YoY. In March, the national CPI rose by 1.0% YoY and fell by 0.7% MoM. In Q1, national ex-factory prices of industrial producers fell by 0.6% YoY, with the decline narrowing by 1.5 percentage points from Q4 of the previous year. Among them, March saw a YoY increase of 0.5%, compared with a decrease of 0.9% in the previous month; and a MoM increase of 1.0%. In Q1, the purchase prices of industrial producers nationwide fell by 0.5% YoY. Among them, March saw a YoY increase of 0.8%, compared with a decrease of 0.7% in the previous month; and a MoM increase of 1.2%. VIII. The Employment Situation Remained Generally Stable, with the Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate Unchanged YoY In Q1, the average national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.3%, unchanged from the same period of the previous year. In March, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.4%. The surveyed unemployment rate for local household-registered labor force was 5.4%; the surveyed unemployment rate for non-local household-registered labor force was 5.3%, of which the surveyed unemployment rate for non-local labor force with agricultural household registration was 5.7%. The urban surveyed unemployment rate in 31 major cities was 5.3%. The average weekly working hours of employees in enterprises nationwide was 48.1 hours. At the end of Q1, the total number of rural migrant workers working outside their hometowns was 188.38 million, up 0.2% YoY. IX. Household Income Continued to Grow, with Rural Residents' Income Growing Faster Than That of Urban Residents In Q1, the national per capita disposable income was 12,782 yuan, a nominal increase of 4.9% YoY, or a real increase of 4.0% after deducting price factors. By place of permanent residence, the per capita disposable income of urban residents was 16,549 yuan, up 4.2% YoY in nominal terms and 3.2% in real terms; the per capita disposable income of rural residents was 7,433 yuan, up 6.1% YoY in nominal terms and 5.4% in real terms. By income source, the per capita nationwide wage income, net business income, net property income, and net transfer income grew 4.9%, 6.6%, 1.6%, and 5.1% in nominal terms, respectively. The median per capita disposable income of nationwide residents was 10,433 yuan, up 5.0% YoY in nominal terms. Overall, major macro indicators rebounded in Q1, new momentum grew rapidly, and the national economy achieved a good start. However, it should also be noted that the external environment has become more complex and volatile, the domestic imbalance of strong supply and weak demand remains prominent, and the foundation for economic improvement still needs to be consolidated. In the next phase, it is important to adhere to the guidance of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, resolutely implement the decisions and plans of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, fully and faithfully apply the new development philosophy, accelerate the construction of a new development paradigm, focus on promoting high-quality development, maintain the general principle of seeking progress while ensuring stability, implement more proactive and effective macro policies, continuously expand domestic demand and optimize supply, improve incremental resources and revitalize existing assets, and make efforts to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, so as to continuously consolidate and expand the steady and positive momentum of the economy. Recommended reading:

[SHFE and LME Aluminum Indicators Strengthen Across the Board, Geopolitical Risks Dominate Short-Term Market] Overall, from a macro perspective, risks of strait transit restrictions and conflict escalation resonated with fundamental supply-side hard damage and low global inventory, jointly providing strong bottom support for aluminum prices. However, weak interest rate cut expectations, China's aluminum ingot inventory buildup exceeding expectations, and adverse expectations on consumption and inflation from recent high fluctuations in oil prices all notably dragged on the upside room for aluminum prices. In the short term, aluminum prices fluctuated at highs.

Under the guidance of MIIT, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA) has begun drafting the 'General Rules for PV Product Manufacturing Cost Assessment Models.' This standard will cover the entire value chain—polysilicon, wafers, cells, and modules—to establish a unified benchmark for industry-wide cost comparisons. Separately, MIIT is seeking public comment on a mandatory national safety standard for terrestrial PV modules with system voltages up to 1,500 V, ensuring stricter reliability for utility-scale projects.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Last Friday evening, LME copper opened at $12,744/mt, dipping to $12,642/mt early in the session. The price center then fluctuated upward to a high of $12,928/mt before fluctuating downward to finally close at $12,857/mt, up 1.27%, with trading volume at 22,000 lots and open interest at 293,000 lots, down 4,028 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears reducing positions. Last Friday evening, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at 99,200 yuan/mt, fluctuated upward early in the session to reach 99,750 yuan/mt, then the price center gradually shifted lower to a low of 99,090 yuan/mt, followed by wild swings before finally closing at 99,310 yuan/mt, up 1.04%, with trading volume at 45,000 lots and open interest at 171,700 lots, down 2,724 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears reducing positions.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,996.5/mt, touched a high of $1,998.5/mt during the Asian session before moving downward; during the European session, it first rose then fell, with a late-session dive to a low of $1,970/mt, ultimately closing at $1,984/mt, down 0.53%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2604 contract opened at 16,700 yuan/mt, fluctuated upward to a high of 16,765 yuan/mt in early trading before weakening, touched a low of 16,670 yuan/mt in late trading, and ultimately closed at 16,705 yuan/mt, up 0.03%. On the macro front: Last Friday, the market awaited the results of US-Iran negotiations, and Israel had sought to negotiate with Lebanon, which brought hope for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump said the US would not allow Iran to make money by selling oil. An Iranian oil ministry official said the damaged refineries were expected to restore at least 70% of their previous capacity within one to two months. Li Qiang chaired a symposium on the economic situation with experts and entrepreneurs. The second batch of 62.5 billion yuan in ultra-long-term special government bonds this year to support trade-in policies for consumer goods was recently disbursed. NBS: CPI rose 1.0% YoY in March, and PPI turned from a YoY decline to an increase. Shanghai Stock Exchange: the price change limit for risk-warning stocks on the main board was adjusted from 5% to 10%. : In the Shanghai market, Hongli lead was quoted at 16,700-16,800 yuan/mt, quoted at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2605 contract. Last Friday, SHFE lead continued to fluctuate downward, and due to limited circulating cargoes in the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai market, suppliers held prices firm and shipped at premiums. Meanwhile, quotations for cargoes self-picked up from primary lead smelters were chaotic, with large price spreads between high and low prices in north China, while south China generally shipped at discounts. Mainstream production areas quoted at discounts of 60 yuan/mt to premiums of 50 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead ex-works. Secondary lead side, smelters shipped following the market, with secondary refined lead quoted at discounts of 50-0 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead average price ex-works, among which tax-exclusive cargoes saw more shipments than tax-inclusive ones. In addition, downstream enterprises showed strong wait-and-see sentiment with few inquiries, and some made just-in-time procurement. The spot market showed no signs of improvement in transactions for the time being. Inventory: On April 10, LME lead inventory decreased by 550 mt to 278,225 mt. As of April 9, SMM five-region lead ingot social inventory pulled back slightly. Lead price forecast for today: Weakening lead consumption in China and inflows of imported lead became the main factors dragging down lead prices. As SHFE lead enters the delivery week, suppliers are transferring inventory and shipping to delivery warehouses, converting it into visible inventory, and lead prices may come under pressure and weaken. At the same time, we need to monitor whether secondary lead enterprises fulfill their maintenance plans. If production cuts proceed as scheduled, lead prices may have the possibility of bottoming out and rebounding. Data Source Disclaimer: Data other than public information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

After the Chinese New Year holiday ended, consumer demand saw a seasonal pullback in March. Against this backdrop, China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.7% MoM but still rose 1% YoY, with core CPI up 1.1% YoY. Meanwhile, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 1% MoM, maintaining an upward trend for six consecutive months and hitting the largest increase in 48 months; PPI was up 0.5% YoY, marking the first increase after 41 consecutive months of decline.

SMM Nickel News, April 10: Macro and market news: (1) Data from the NBS showed that in March, consumer demand pulled back seasonally after the extended Chinese New Year holiday, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) down 0.7% MoM and up 1.0% YoY. (2) Sources said that Iran had informed Pakistan, the mediator in the negotiations, that the Iranian delegation would not participate in peace talks with the US until a ceasefire was achieved in Lebanon. Previously, on April 9, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Sayed Khatibzadeh said the Iranian delegation would head to Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan, for negotiations. Spot market: On April 10, SMM #1 refined nickel prices rose 200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums: Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 3,350 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel brands ranged from -400 to 400 yuan/mt. Futures market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2605 contract surged in the morning session before pulling back slightly, closing at 133,210 yuan/mt, down 0.72%. In the short term, Indonesia's policy tightening and cost support have built a solid floor for nickel prices, but high inventory and weak end-use demand capped upside room. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in a core range of 133,000-143,000 yuan/mt.