Since March 2025, COMEX copper cathode inventories have been building steadily from 83,876 tonnes, reaching a total of 537,540 tonnes as of February 11, 2026, representing an increase of over 450,000 tonnes in visible inventories over the past year.On February 12, 2026, inventories at the exchange recorded their first decline, falling by 1,225 tonnes to 535,715 tonnes.According to SMM market sources, COMEX registered warehouse capacity has been nearly saturated over the past year. Following the recent reversal in the LME–COMEX spread, there are signs that newly added inventories, as well as part of the existing stocks, may begin shifting toward the LME.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: LME copper opened at $13,025/mt overnight, initially dipped to $12,975/mt, then fluctuated upward and touched a high of $13,228/mt near the close, finally settling at $13,185/mt, up 0.96%, with trading volume reaching 15,200 lots and open interest at 327,000 lots, an increase of 2,466 lots from the previous session, overall showing a pattern of bulls increasing positions. The most-traded SHFE copper contract 2603 opened at 101,740 yuan/mt overnight, touched a low of 101,280 yuan/mt at the beginning, then the center of copper prices gradually shifted upward and tested 102,500 yuan/mt, finally settling at 102,450 yuan/mt, up 0.93%, with trading volume reaching 41,800 lots and open interest at 165,000 lots, a decrease of 4,251 lots from the previous session, overall showing a pattern of bears reducing positions.

Data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME) showed that LME copper inventories continued to decline last week, with the latest inventory level reaching 114,475 mt, the lowest in over a year. The latest data released by the Shanghai Futures Exchange indicated that during the week of June 13, SHFE copper inventories dropped back slightly, with weekly inventories increasing by 5.08% to 101,943 mt. International copper inventories increased by 299 mt to 11,373 mt. Last week, COMEX copper inventories continued to increase, with the latest inventory level reaching 196,046 mt, hitting a nearly seven-year high. Note: Generally speaking, a continuous decline in inventories at domestic and overseas exchanges will support futures prices, while the opposite will have a bearish impact on futures prices. Comparison of Copper Inventories at the Three Major Exchanges Since 2023 The following are the copper inventory data at the three major exchanges since June 2025: (Unit: mt)

Data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME) showed that LME copper inventories maintained a downward trend last week, with the latest inventory level at 132,400 mt, hitting a new low in nearly a year. The latest data released by the Shanghai Futures Exchange indicated that during the week of June 6, SHFE copper inventories rebounded slightly, with weekly inventories increasing by 1.52% to 107,404 mt. International copper inventories held steady at 11,074 mt. Last week, COMEX copper inventories continued to accumulate, with the latest inventory level at 187,877 mt, reaching a new high in nearly seven years. Note: Generally, a continuous decline in inventories at domestic and overseas exchanges will support futures prices, while the opposite will have a bearish impact on futures prices. Comparison of Copper Inventories at the Three Major Exchanges Since 2023 The following are the copper inventory data at the three major exchanges since May 2025: (Unit: mt)

In Q1 this year, supported by the tight global supply of copper concentrates, the center of copper prices shifted significantly higher compared to last year, with the most-traded contract climbing to a historical high of 83,320 yuan/mt. However, during the domestic Qingming Festival holiday, affected by the US's "reciprocal tariff" policy, copper prices plummeted, falling to a low of 71,320 yuan/mt, a drop of 12,000 yuan/mt from the year's peak, representing a decline of over 14%. Looking ahead, the center of copper prices is expected to move further downward. Supply side, with the expansion of the Kamoa and Oyu Tolgoi mines and the commissioning of the new Malmyz mine, global copper mine production is expected to grow by 2.3% in 2025. Meanwhile, the continuous expansion of China's capacity, along with the start-up of new capacities in Indonesia, India, and the DRC, will ultimately drive a 2.9% YoY increase in copper cathode production in 2025. Despite the simultaneous growth in copper mine and copper cathode capacities, the tight global supply of copper concentrates is expected to persist. Currently, copper concentrate treatment charges (TCs) have remained in negative territory for multiple months. As of May 23, spot TCs fell to -$44.25/dmt. In May, the cost of producing copper cathode from copper concentrates exceeded the domestic spot price by 4,705-5,455 yuan/mt. When considering the profit from sulphuric acid sales, the domestic sales loss for copper cathode narrowed to -3,266 to -2,516 yuan/mt. Long-term contract TCs remained at $23.25/dmt. After accounting for the profit from sulphuric acid sales, the domestic sales loss for copper cathode ranged from -2,751 to -700 yuan/mt. The fact that the production cost of copper cathode exceeds the domestic selling price, on one hand, supports copper prices from the cost side; on the other hand, it may dampen the production enthusiasm of smelters, constraining a significant increase in copper cathode production. Previously, influenced by changes in the market supply-demand pattern, the domestic import window for copper cathode closed, while the export window opened. Domestic smelters actively expanded export trade to secure profits. Data shows that in April, domestic copper cathode exports increased by approximately 10,000 mt MoM, while net imports decreased by 15,000 mt MoM. Coupled with the sufficient supply of copper concentrates and the increase in smelters' operating rates, copper cathode production increased by approximately 10,000 mt MoM in April. From the perspective of raw material reserves, domestic imports of copper concentrates, copper scrap, and copper anode increased MoM in April, laying the foundation for production in May. Entering May, with the continuous opening of the export window for copper cathode and the scale of production resumptions at copper cathode enterprises exceeding that of maintenance, domestic copper cathode production is expected to remain at a high level. Driven by the US's tariff reduction policy, the country's imports of copper products have increased significantly. Data shows that the US's imports of copper cathode in January, February, and March were 58,000 mt, 76,000 mt, and 123,000 mt, respectively. In April, imports exceeded 170,000 mt, hitting a record high. UBS analysts expect that approximately 250,000 to 300,000 mt of additional copper will flow into the US market between March and May, indicating that the US refined copper imports in H1 have nearly reached the full-year level of 2023. Against the backdrop of a surge in US copper product imports, China has emerged as the primary supplier, leveraging its cost and capacity advantages, driving up domestic demand for copper semis exports. In April, exports of unwrought copper and copper semis increased by nearly 10,000 mt month-on-month (MoM), while imports either decreased or slowed down in growth MoM, resulting in a 40,000 mt decline in net imports. Despite robust export demand, the characteristics of the off-season for domestic downstream copper enterprises began to emerge in the last week of May. SMM survey data shows that the weekly operating rates of copper cathode rod, secondary copper rod, wire and cable, and enamelled wire enterprises were 70.64%, 22.14%, 82.34%, and 83.90%, respectively, decreasing by 2.62 percentage points, increasing by 0.27 percentage points, decreasing by 1.05 percentage points, and decreasing by 0.50 percentage points MoM. Among them, copper consumption in the air conditioning and new energy sectors both decreased MoM. Specifically, the total production schedules for household air conditioners in China for May, June, and July were 23.3 million units, 20.978 million units, and 18.4206 million units, respectively, showing a month-on-month decline. In the NEV market, retail sales from May 1 to 26 reached 574,000 units, up 2% MoM from April, while nationwide passenger vehicle producers' new energy wholesale sales reached 620,000 units, down 3% MoM from April. The trend of global copper inventories continuing to shift towards the US is significant. As of May 29, SHFE and LME copper warrants decreased to 32,000 mt and 152,000 mt, respectively, with MoM declines of 6% and 25%. As of May 28, COMEX copper inventories increased to 179,700 mt, up 37% MoM. This data change reflects that copper inventories are shifting from the Asian and European markets to the US market. Looking ahead, although the early release of future demand for US imports has provided short-term support for copper prices, copper prices still face downward risks amid intensified volatility in the US and Japanese stock, bond, and currency markets, as well as the gradual entry of the domestic copper market into the off-season for purchases and sales. (Source: Futures Daily)

Previously, the US implemented reciprocal tariffs, sparking market concerns that a potential disruption in trade chains could drag down economic growth and push up inflation. Risk assets were broadly sold off, and copper prices were not spared from the downturn. Subsequently, trade conflicts began to ease, and copper prices embarked on a path of recovery. However, it can be observed that SHFE copper faced significant resistance at the gap left by the sharp drop in early April, while support below was also strong, with futures prices fluctuating rangebound around the 78,000 yuan level. Why has SHFE copper been caught in a dilemma recently? Is there a possibility for futures prices to break out of the rangebound situation in the future? Uncertainty remains over the tariff grace period Recently, negotiations between the US and various countries have been underway. In particular, after the 90-day reciprocal tariffs between China and the US were reduced to 10%, the market briefly traded on the logic of easing tariff tensions. However, the progress of some negotiations has been slow. Recently, Trump's attitude shifted, and he again proposed imposing tariffs on the EU. The market is also concerned about the possibility of renewed trade frictions after the tariff grace period. The positive impact of the short-term tariff easing has largely been priced in, making it difficult to provide further support for market sentiment. In addition, to divert attention from domestic contradictions such as the massive scale of debt, it is difficult for the US to restore tariffs on other countries to pre-2024 levels, and concerns about the economic growth outlook cannot be easily allayed. Judging from the recently released US economic data, the impact of tariff disruptions has so far been limited. US inflation in April was lower than expected, and the monthly rate of retail sales rose by 0.1%, exceeding expectations. The Markit manufacturing and services PMIs for May also exceeded expectations. However, the issue of the US's high debt burden still persists, with a significant amount of US debt maturing in June. Recently, Trump's tax cut bill narrowly passed the House of Representatives, and the market continues to worry about the US's mounting debt. The impact of tariff increases on the economy also remains to be tracked. Mining-side processing fees remain at extremely low levels, and the supply side appears somewhat fragile Since last year, tight ore supply has been a major factor plaguing the copper market. However, except for the news in March this year that Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group would carry out production cuts and maintenance, the production of domestic smelters has largely not been constrained by tight ore supply and extremely low processing fees. Therefore, against the backdrop of steady to increasing production in the smelting sector, the issue of tight ore supply alone is unlikely to provide a substantial boost to copper prices. However, it cannot be overlooked that the current spot processing fees for domestic copper concentrates have fallen below -$40/dmt, and the annual and quarterly processing fees negotiated between domestic smelters and overseas miners are increasingly lower. Recently, the market has focused its attention on the mid-year negotiations between global copper mining giant Antofagasta and Chinese and Japanese smelters. Previously, sources revealed that due to tight copper concentrate supply, smelters may request a "zero-dollar" processing fee, or even a negative value, for the second half of 2025. If the rumors are true, the output of by-products such as sulphuric acid may not be sufficient to offset the losses, undoubtedly exacerbating the production pressure on domestic small and medium-sized smelters. Meanwhile, there have been more disruptions in overseas mining operations. Last Tuesday, Ivanhoe Mines announced that mining operations at its Kakula underground mine within the Kamoa-Kakula copper mining area in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) had been temporarily suspended, primarily due to the impact of an earthquake. Its Phase I and II beneficiation plants continue to operate at low capacity using surface ore stockpiles, while operations at the Kamoa mine and Phase III beneficiation plant remain unaffected. Kamoa-Kakula is a world-class, large-scale, ultra-high-grade copper mine. The Phase I mine, with a capacity of 6 million mt/year, was constructed at Kakula, while Phase II utilizes existing facilities at the Kansoko mine to increase capacity to 12 million mt/year. In the evening of May 23, Zijin Mining, another major investor in the mine, also issued an announcement, stating that the earthquake is expected to adversely affect the achievement of the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine's annual planned production, with the specific extent of the impact requiring further assessment based on the investigation results. Overall, due to the faster expansion of global smelters, the copper ore supply tightness is relatively severe and is unlikely to ease significantly in the short term. Against the backdrop of strong bargaining power of miners, the copper concentrate TCs negotiated by smelters are becoming increasingly lower, with the possibility of approaching zero. In the early stage, smelters adjusted their operations through measures such as long-term contracts, supplementing with other raw materials, and offsetting profits with by-products such as sulphuric acid, maintaining overall stable production. Recently, during the concentrated maintenance period of the year, there are still few maintenance plans among domestic smelters, and there has been no significant production cut due to ore shortages. Going forward, attention should still be paid to the long-term contract levels of copper concentrate TCs negotiated between overseas miners and domestic smelters. Before the ore supply tightness can be transmitted to the smelting end, it will still be difficult to provide more upward momentum for copper prices. If smelters indeed undertake substantial production cuts, copper prices may experience a sharp increase. Social inventory of domestic copper cathode accumulates slightly, with expectations of weakening demand Recently, the performance of global copper visible inventories has been divergent. COMEX copper inventories have continued to rebound, rising from around 92,000 mt in early March to approximately 175,600 mt currently, reflecting the process of global copper flowing into the US amid expectations of a possible tariff hike on imported copper by the US. Correspondingly, LME copper inventories have been continuously pulling back, declining from around 260,000 mt in early March to approximately 164,700 mt currently, with a significant destocking amplitude. The current price spread between COMEX copper and LME copper remains at a relatively high level. Before the implementation of copper-related tariffs by the US, global copper will continue to flow into the US due to the existence of profits. Domestically, the traditional peak season of "Golden March, Silver April" has passed. Coupled with the rebound of copper prices from low levels, the downstream demand in the domestic copper market has weakened compared to the previous period, and the destocking of social inventories of copper cathode in China has halted. However, overall, the extent of inventory buildup has been very limited so far, and the inflow of domestic inventories has also been influenced by the outflow of exchange warrants and the inflow of inventories from bonded areas. From the downstream industry data released this month, the high-growth momentum of power grid investment continues, and the State Grid Corporation of China's annual record-high target is relatively certain. This aspect of demand will continue to support copper prices. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, automobile production continued to increase YoY, and industry prosperity persisted. However, in April, the production of refrigerators and air conditioners both pulled back, indicating a potential weakening in demand in this sector. Overall, during the moratorium period, global trade frictions have eased compared to the previous period, but uncertainties in negotiations still persist. Moreover, against the backdrop of deglobalization, market concerns about the economic outlook are difficult to completely dispel, and the suppression at the previous gap still exists. On the supply and demand side, concerns about tight ore supplies have lingered for a long time, and recent disruptions at the ore end have increased again, continuously consolidating the downward support for copper prices. Additionally, the siphon effect of the US has also made it difficult for copper inventories in other regions to accumulate significantly. However, the output of copper cathode remains stable, and there are expectations of a marginal weakening in demand. Therefore, a breakout from the current stalemate in SHFE copper prices may require more definitive changes to occur.

Recently, the copper market has shown stability, with copper prices continuing to fluctuate rangebound near the 5-day moving average.

Data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME) showed that LME copper inventories declined at an accelerated pace last week, with the latest inventory level reaching 179,375 mt, a new low in ten and a half months. The latest data released by the Shanghai Futures Exchange indicated that during the week of May 16, SHFE copper inventories rebounded somewhat, with weekly inventories increasing by 34% to 108,142 mt. International copper inventories increased by 24.33% to 17,117 mt. Last week, COMEX copper inventories continued to rebound, with the latest inventory level reaching 169,664 mt, marking a new high in over six years. Note: Generally speaking, a continuous decline in inventories at domestic and overseas exchanges will support futures prices, while the opposite will have a bearish impact on futures prices. Comparison of Copper Inventories at the Three Major Exchanges Since 2023 The following are the copper inventory data for the three major exchanges since May 2025: (Unit: mt)

Since April, the most-traded SHFE copper contract prices have shown a trend of initial decline followed by a rebound, with copper prices gradually recovering after hitting a low of 71,000 yuan/mt. Meanwhile, arbitrage trading in the LME copper and COMEX copper markets has weakened, while domestic copper smelters have increased maintenance activities, leading to a rapid drawdown in social copper inventory and providing support for copper prices. Supply side remains tight. In December 2024, China's copper concentrate production reached 151,800 mt, up 6.89% YoY and 9.51% MoM. In March 2025, China imported 2.3939 million mt of copper concentrates and ore, up 9.69% MoM and 2.73% YoY. This year, China's copper concentrate production has been at a relatively low level, while imports have remained relatively stable, resulting in an overall decline in copper concentrate supply. In late April, Peru's Antamina mine halted operations entirely due to a sudden accident. The mine produced 426,900 mt of copper ore in 2024, accounting for 1.86% of global copper ore production, which will have a certain impact on global copper ore supply. In terms of inventory, as of April 18, the copper concentrate inventory at major domestic ports stood at 706,900 mt, at a moderate level, while the processing fee for imported ore continued to decline, falling to -$34.71/mt, a record low. According to data from relevant institutions, from 2021 to 2025, the global copper concentrate capacity additions have accelerated, but in the next three years, the growth rate of global copper concentrate capacity additions will decline rapidly, potentially exacerbating the global copper concentrate supply tightness in the later period. As of February this year, China's copper scrap production reached 115,800 mt in metal content, up 4.99% MoM and 60.83% YoY. According to March data, China's imports of copper scrap and shredded copper scrap reached 189,700 mt, down 3,631 mt MoM and 13.07% YoY. Among them, imports from the US were 22,500 mt, down 8,900 mt MoM. With the intensifying impact of the "trade war," China's copper scrap imports may decline in the later period, leading to a tight supply-demand structure for copper scrap. In February, China's blister copper production was 911,500 mt, down 2.96% MoM and up 10.74% YoY. Among them, mine-produced blister copper decreased by 26,500 mt from January to 738,700 mt, while scrap-produced blister copper decreased by 1,300 mt to 172,800 mt. In March, China imported 50,200 mt of copper anode, down 11.05% MoM and 47.8% YoY. In March, China's copper cathode production was 1.1221 million mt, up 6.04% MoM and 12.27% YoY. Entering April, due to the tight supply of copper concentrates, some smelters began to reduce the feedstock of copper concentrates, but by increasing the feedstock of copper scrap and anode plates, they maintained stable copper cathode production.Additionally, new smelters have commenced operations in east China, while the capacity utilization rate of smelters in south-west China has increased, leading to a slight decline in the total production of copper cathode. Due to significant losses in the industry, the operating rate of domestic smelters remains relatively low, and import losses have also suppressed the supply of imported copper. Overall, despite an increase in copper cathode production, the overall supply pressure remains relatively small. In terms of subsequent capacity increments, it is projected that China will add 1.17 million mt of new copper refining capacity in 2025, with overseas capacity additions reaching approximately 870,000 mt. Among these, the Kamoa mining area, jointly held by Ivanhoe and Zijin Mining, will contribute the largest overseas capacity increment. Operating rates in downstream sectors rebound In 2025, China's fiscal policy will become more proactive. Specifically, the scale of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds is expected to increase from 1 trillion yuan to 2 trillion yuan, while the scale of new special local government bonds is anticipated to rise from 3.9 trillion yuan to 4.5 trillion to 5 trillion yuan. With the continuous strengthening of fiscal policy, it is expected that infrastructure investment in 2025 will continue to fluctuate at highs in recent years, with investment growth rates projected to stabilize at 5% to 10%. Infrastructure investment will remain one of the main driving forces for industrial product demand in 2025. In December 2024, China's copper semis production reached 2.27 million mt, up 6.2% MoM and 16.53% YoY. The operating rate of enterprises in the copper semis industry stood at 69.02%. Affected by the Chinese New Year holiday, the operating rate of the copper semis industry was low in January and February but gradually rebounded to 67% in March. With the recovery of downstream consumption, the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises in the copper industry continued to rebound. Entering April, copper prices fell sharply, stimulating an increase in downstream orders. It is expected that the operating rate of enterprises in the copper semis industry will continue to rise, but attention should be paid to the impact of US tariff policies on China's copper consumption. Additionally, the YoY data for overall power grid and NEV production both showed slight increases, providing further bullish support for copper cathode demand. Bulls take the initiative in forward contracts In April, the growth rate of COMEX copper inventories accelerated, approaching 130,000 short tons as of April 23. Domestically, as of April 24, social copper inventories stood at 181,700 mt, achieving eight consecutive weeks of weekly destocking, down 195,300 mt from the year's high and 223,000 mt lower than the 404,700 mt recorded in the same period last year. In April, the decline in LME copper inventories slowed down, hovering around 210,000 mt, with the ratio of cancelled warrants dropping from a high of 50% to 37%. As of April 18, both non-commercial long and short positions in COMEX Grade 1 copper decreased from the previous week, with net long positions falling by 4,764 lots to 19,477 lots. Meanwhile, both long and short positions in LME copper investment funds increased, with net long positions rising by 1,479 lots to 29,842 lots.The domestic futures market exhibits a contango structure, with bulls taking the initiative in the deferred contracts, indicating that major funds are optimistic about future prices. From the perspective of the supply-demand balance table, with the arrival of the peak consumption season, downstream demand is rebounding while upstream supply is pulling back. The supply-demand structure is gradually improving, and the probability of a supply-demand gap emerging in Q2 is rising. Against this backdrop, market optimism is heating up, providing certain bullish support for prices. From a macro perspective, based on the economic data released by the US in March, indicators such as the ISM Manufacturing PMI, CPI, and PPI have shown robust performance. The impact of US tariff policies is expected to be reflected in April's data, and subsequent attention should be paid to the progress of negotiations between the US and other countries. On the supply side, the tight supply situation of copper raw materials has intensified, with processing fees for imported copper concentrates continuing to decline, and tariff policies affecting the imports of copper scrap. Currently, the extent of production cuts in copper smelting is relatively small, with April mainly focusing on maintenance. By-products such as sulphuric acid and gold can offset some of the losses incurred by smelters. On the consumption side, as downstream consumption gradually recovers, the operating rates of downstream copper processing enterprises have significantly increased. The shortage of secondary copper raw materials has also stimulated market consumption of copper cathode. However, the impact of US tariff policies is gradually becoming apparent, making it difficult to be optimistic about the subsequent consumption of copper. Overall, the fundamental support for copper is moderate, but US tariff policies still plague the market, which will limit the subsequent rebound height of copper prices. It is expected that SHFE copper prices in May may struggle to break new highs, and caution should be exercised against the risk of prices jumping initially and then pulling back. (Author's affiliation: Huawen Futures)

Data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME) showed that LME copper inventories continued to decline last week, with the latest inventory level at 191,775 mt, hitting a ten-month low. The latest data released by the Shanghai Futures Exchange indicated that during the week of May 9, SHFE copper inventories continued to decrease, with weekly inventories falling by 9.63% to 80,705 mt, reaching a new low in nearly four months. International copper inventories increased by 531 mt to 13,767 mt. Last week, COMEX copper inventories continued to accumulate, with the latest inventory level at 160,250 mt, hitting a new high in over six years. Note: Generally, a continuous decline in inventories at domestic and overseas exchanges will support futures prices, while the opposite will have a bearish impact on futures prices. Comparison of Copper Inventories at the Three Major Exchanges Since 2023 The following are the copper inventory data at the three major exchanges since April 2025: (Unit: mt)