Daily Price Update — August 18, 2026 Indonesian nickel ore CIF average prices strengthened across all three grades: 1.4% Ni: CIF average price rose from $52.6/wmt to $53.3/wmt, up $0.7/wmt. 1.5% Ni: CIF average price rose from $60.0/wmt to $60.8/wmt, up $0.8/wmt. 1.6% Ni: CIF average price rose from $64.9/wmt to $65.8/wmt, up $0.9/wmt, the largest increase among the three grades. Premium: Market players verified that the premium remained stable compared with the first half of August, with no significant change in the prevailing premium level. Overall: CIF average prices increased by $0.7–0.9/wmt, indicating a moderate firming in Indonesian nickel ore prices, while premium levels remained steady. Indonesia Policy Update Indonesia’s planned Mineral and Strategic Commodities Exchange remains the key recent policy development relevant to the nickel market. The exchange is expected to cover nickel, coal and palm oil, with operations targeted for January 1, 2027, aiming to establish domestic reference prices for strategic commodities. Nickel impact: The exchange could strengthen Indonesia’s influence over nickel price formation and domestic benchmarks, potentially increasing the role of Indonesian reference prices in international nickel trade. Latest development: State Secretary Minister Prasetyo Hadi said on August 17 that preparations for the exchange are underway. The platform is tentatively referred to as Icomex.

SMM News on August 18: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals mostly fell. SHFE copper fell 1.19%, and SHFE aluminum fell 0.35%. SHFE lead rose 0.13%. SHFE zinc fell 0.97%. SHFE tin fell 1.57%. SHFE nickel rose 0.19%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures contract fell 0.84%, and the most-traded alumina contract fell 0.26%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract fell 0.69%. The most-traded silicon metal contract fell 0.92%. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract fell 1.17%. Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore fell 0.21%, rebar fell 0.27%, and hot-rolled coil rose 0.09%. Stainless steel rose 0.6%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 0.36%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 1.2%. Overseas base metals: as of 11:42, LME metals were down nearly across the board. LME copper fell 0.34%, and LME lead rose 0.11%. LME zinc fell 0.59%. LME aluminum and LME tin edged down, with both declines within 0.1%. LME nickel rose 0.42%. Precious metals: as of 11:42, COMEX gold fell 0.47%, and COMEX silver fell 1.29%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold rose 0.15%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 0.12%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 0.18%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract fell 0.61%. As of the midday close, the most-traded European container shipping contract rose 0.99% to 1,737.5 points. As of 11:42 on August 18, midday performance of some futures: Spot and Fundamentals Copper: Looking ahead to tomorrow, SHFE copper’s absolute price continued to pull back during the day, driving some downstream players to restock on dips and releasing purchase demand from traders. Market transactions improved markedly from yesterday, with standard-quality copper trading relatively smoothly around spot premiums of 350 yuan/mt, providing some support below spot premiums. Overall, with copper prices pulling back to spur the release of rigid demand and the backwardation structure providing support, but high premiums limiting further rush to buy amid continuous price rise, Shanghai spot copper prices against the 2609 contract are expected to remain at a premium tomorrow, with the overall center likely to consolidate around current levels... Macro Front China: [The Ministry of Commerce and other departments jointly issued the “Opinions on Further Stimulating the Vitality of Lower-Tier Markets and Boosting County-Level Consumption”] The Ministry of Commerce and eight other departments released the “Opinions on Further Stimulating the Vitality of Lower-tier Markets and Boosting County-level Consumption,” which proposed accelerating the renovation and upgrading of existing commercial facilities. Supported the upgrading and renovation of traditional department stores and aging shopping centers, and promoted optimized site selection for branded chain stores, discount retailers, and fresh-food e-commerce outlets. Deepened the “1,000 Markets and 10,000 Stores” renovation and enhancement initiative, supported the construction and upgrading of township commercial and trade centers, township (agricultural) trade markets, and distinctive township fairs, and carried out standardized and regulated renovation and construction of new-type convenience stores and village-level integrated parcel and logistics service stations. [PBOC Reverse Repo Operations Achieved a Net Drain of 95.8 billion yuan on the Day] The PBOC conducted no reverse repo operations today, while carrying out 469.7 billion yuan of overnight reverse repos. As 565.5 billion yuan of overnight reverse repos matured today, a net drain of 95.8 billion yuan was achieved on the day. (Jinshi Data APP) US dollar: As of 11:42, the US dollar index rose 0.05% to 99.63. According to CME “FedWatch”: the probability that the US Fed would keep rates unchanged through September was 65%, and the probability of cumulative hikes of 25 basis points was 35%. The probability that the US Fed would keep rates unchanged through October was 51.4%, the probability of cumulative hikes of 25 basis points was 41.3%, and the probability of cumulative hikes of 50 basis points was 7.4%. (Jinshi Data APP) On Monday local time, US Treasury yields broadly moved higher. The 30-year Treasury yield, typically more sensitive to geopolitical events, rose more than 4 basis points to 5.311%, the highest level since June 2007. The 10-year Treasury yield—the primary benchmark rate for mortgages, auto loans, and credit card debt—rose more than 2 basis points to 4.724%. The 2-year Treasury yield, which typically fluctuates in line with the US Fed’s short-term rate decisions, rose more than 1 basis point on Monday to 4.182%. Oil prices climbed as the 60-day deadline for the peace agreement reached between the US and Iran was set to expire on Monday, and Iran had ruled out the possibility of extending the deadline. Investors were awaiting the release later this week of the minutes of the US Fed meeting to gain further insight into its latest monetary policy decision and the future path of interest rates. At its July 29 meeting, the US Fed voted 9-3 to keep rates unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%. The three dissenting committee members—Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan—called for a 25-basis-point rate hike. Reuters poll: Of 104 economists, 94 expected the US Fed to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% in September (95 held this view in the July survey). Eighty of 104 economists expect the US Fed to keep the federal funds rate unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% range in 2026 (78 held this view in the July survey). Recent weak US jobs and retail sales data, along with subdued inflation data, prompted investors to scale back bets on rate hikes. However, Paul Brocardo, CEO of BankPro, noted in a report that if uncertainty over the Middle East situation and the resulting inflation concerns persist, the dollar's downside may be limited. Any escalation in tensions could boost demand for safe-haven assets, thereby supporting the dollar, while also lifting oil prices and driving yields higher. (Jin10 Data APP) On the Data Front: Today will see the release of the UK ILO unemployment rate for the three months to June, the UK July unemployment rate, the UK July claimant count, Germany's August ZEW economic sentiment index, the eurozone's August ZEW economic sentiment index, US ADP employment change for the week ended August 1, US July annualized housing starts, US July building permits, US July import price index MoM, US July industrial production MoM, and US July pending home sales index MoM, among others. In addition, Xiaomi Group and Baidu will hold earnings calls. Crude Oil: As of 11:42, both crude oil benchmarks were higher, with WTI crude up 0.7% and Brent crude up 0.63%. As prospects for US-Iran peace talks dimmed, market concerns over crude oil supply supported prices. US President Trump said he has no intention of extending the soon-to-expire agreement with Iran. The US-Iran memorandum of understanding signed in June this year technically expired on Monday. The two sides still have differences on many issues, including the Strait of Hormuz. Other officials suggested that the US is in no rush to end the conflict, which has lasted nearly six months. The US Energy Secretary said the US is playing a long game with the Islamic Republic of Iran, while Trump's senior adviser Kushner said Trump would remain patient on reaching an agreement. (Jin10 Data APP) US Energy Secretary Wright said measures will be announced in the coming days to help refineries increase fuel production. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve still has 300 million barrels, and its level after the Iran conflict ends will be higher than before the conflict. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot Market at a Glance: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

The Indonesian government is preparing to establish a Mineral and Strategic Commodities Exchange (BMKS), targeted to begin operations on January 1, 2027, as part of efforts to strengthen domestic price discovery and Indonesia's influence over the pricing of its major commodities. State Secretary Prasetyo Hadi said nickel, CPO and coal are among the key commodities being considered, although the final list has not yet been determined. The exchange, potentially called the Indonesia Commodity Exchange (Icomex), is expected to operate under a mechanism that considers production costs and international commodity prices. The government is also assessing how the new exchange will interact with the existing Indonesia Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (ICDX), including whether the two could eventually be integrated or operate separately.

SMM News, August 18: Metals market: Overnight, base metals in the domestic market mostly fell. SHFE copper fell 0.84%. SHFE aluminum fell 0.19%. SHFE zinc fell 0.48%, and SHFE tin fell 1.47%. SHFE lead edged up, while SHFE nickel edged down. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract fell 0.56%, and the continuous casting aluminum contract fell 0.71%. Overnight, ferrous metals mostly rose. Stainless steel rose 0.32%, iron ore rose 0.14%, and rebar fell 0.3%. Hot-rolled coil rose 0.18%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.18%, while the most-traded coke contract rose 0.23%. Overnight, in overseas metals, LME base metals mostly moved lower. LME copper fell 0.3%. LME aluminum rose 0.45%. LME lead fell 0.55%. LME zinc fell 0.11%. LME tin fell 0.49%. LME nickel fell 0.36%. Overnight, precious metals : COMEX gold extended the previous trading day’s gains, rising 0.81%, while COMEX silver rose 1.22%. Overnight, the continuous SHFE gold contract extended the previous trading day’s gains, rising 0.41%, while the continuous SHFE silver contract rose 0.82%. As of 7:16 on August 18, overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [The Ministry of Commerce and other departments jointly issued the “Opinions on Further Stimulating the Vitality of Lower-Tier Markets and Boosting County-Level Consumption”] The Ministry of Commerce and eight other departments released the “Opinions on Further Stimulating the Vitality of Lower-Tier Markets and Boosting County-Level Consumption,” which proposed accelerating the renewal of existing commercial facilities. It supports the upgrading and renovation of traditional department stores and aging shopping malls, and promotes optimized layout for branded chain stores, discount retail stores, and fresh e-commerce storefronts, among others. It will deepen the renovation and upgrading of the “1,000 Markets and 10,000 Stores” initiative, support the construction and upgrading of township commercial and trade centers, (agricultural) trade markets, and distinctive township fairs, and carry out standardized and regulated construction and renovation of new-type convenience stores and village-level integrated postal and express logistics service stations. [National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): From January to July, value-added industrial output above designated size nationwide grew 5.3%, and the national economy maintained a development trend toward new drivers, higher quality, and improvement] According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): From January to July, under the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, all regions and departments conscientiously implemented the decisions and arrangements of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, adhered to the general principle of pursuing progress while ensuring stability, effectively responded to various external shocks and internal difficulties, focused on implementing more proactive and effective macro policies, and solidly advanced high-quality development. Production and supply grew steadily, employment and prices were generally stable, resilience in foreign trade continued to stand out, new drivers of growth expanded and strengthened, and overall economic performance remained stable, sustaining a development trend of shifting momentum toward new drivers and optimizing the structure. From January to July, the value added of industrial enterprises above the designated size nationwide increased by 5.3% YoY. By three major sectors, value added increased by 2.5% YoY in mining, 5.6% in manufacturing, and 5.4% in the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water. Value added increased by 9.7% YoY in the equipment manufacturing industry and 13.8% in high-tech manufacturing, respectively 4.4 and 8.5 percentage points faster than overall industrial enterprises above the designated size. [National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and National Energy Administration Issue the 15th Five-Year Plan for Oil and Natural Gas Development] The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the National Energy Administration issued the 15th Five-Year Plan for Oil and Natural Gas Development. It proposed that by 2030, China’s oil and gas supply will reach 440 million mt of oil equivalent; newly added long-distance oil and gas pipelines will total 20,000 km; the nationwide long-distance oil and gas pipeline network will reach 220,000 km; natural gas storage capacity will continue to increase, accounting for more than 13% of national consumption; LNG receiving terminals will have a throughput capacity of 200 million mt/year; the capacity for imported natural gas via onshore pipelines will reach 114 billion m³/year; and annual CO₂ injection under carbon capture and storage/carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCS/CCUS) will reach 10 million mt. [NDRC Deploys Efforts to Accelerate the Deployment of New-Type Policy-Based Financial Instruments in 2026 and Increase Support for Private Investment Projects] On August 14, Comrade Yue Xiuhu, a member of the Party Leadership Group and Vice Chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), chaired a working meeting to deploy efforts to accelerate the deployment of new-type policy-based financial instruments in 2026 and increase support for private investment projects. Officials in charge from some provincial development and reform commissions, as well as officials in charge from China Development Bank, the Export-Import Bank of China, and the Agricultural Development Bank of China, and officials in charge from relevant departments and bureaus of the NDRC attended the meeting. Next, the NDRC will earnestly implement the decisions and arrangements of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, actively work with relevant parties, and further accelerate all related work on the new-type policy-based financial instruments for 2026. (NDRC) [Li Bin of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange: Since July, China’s Foreign Exchange Market Has Remained Stable] In response to reporters’ questions on foreign exchange market conditions in July 2026, Li Bin, Deputy Administrator of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, said that since July, the external environment has been complex and volatile, geopolitical uncertainty has risen, and international financial markets have continued to fluctuate. China’s foreign exchange market has remained stable, the scale of cross-border receipts and payments has expanded steadily, market expectations have been generally stable, and foreign exchange transactions have been rational and orderly. In terms of the scale of cross-border transactions, in July, total cross-border receipts and payments of non-bank sectors such as enterprises and individuals amounted to $1.7 trillion, up 20% YoY; foreign exchange market trading volume was $4.3 trillion, up 8% YoY, both remaining at relatively high levels. From the perspective of cross-border capital flows, in July, net cross-border capital inflows of $59.8 billion were recorded for non-bank sectors such as enterprises and individuals. Among these, net capital inflows under trade in goods remained high, while net capital outflows under trade in services and items such as dividend and interest payments by foreign-invested enterprises remained stable. From the perspective of foreign exchange market supply and demand, in July, banks posted a surplus of $18.3 billion in foreign exchange settlement and sales, with enterprises conducting settlement and sales transactions rationally based on actual needs and changes in market conditions; foreign exchange market supply and demand were basically balanced. (State Administration of Foreign Exchange) US Dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index extended the declines of the previous two trading days, falling a further 0.06% to 99.58. On Monday local time, US Treasury yields broadly moved higher. The 30-year Treasury yield, which is typically more sensitive to geopolitical events, rose by more than 4 basis points to 5.311%, the highest level since June 2007. The 10-year Treasury yield—the key benchmark rate for mortgages, auto loans, and credit card debt—rose by more than 2 basis points to 4.724%. The 2-year Treasury yield, which usually fluctuates in line with US Fed short-term rate decisions, rose by more than 1 basis point on Monday to 4.182%. Oil prices climbed as the 60-day deadline for the US-Iran peace agreement was set to expire on Monday, and Iran had ruled out the possibility of an extension. Investors were awaiting the release of the US Fed meeting minutes later this week to gain further insight into the US Fed’s latest monetary policy decision and the future path of interest rates. At its July 29 meeting, the US Fed voted 9–3 to keep rates unchanged in the 3.50% to 3.75% range. The three dissenting committee members—Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan—called for a 25-basis-point rate hike. According to CME “FedWatch”: the probability that the US Fed will keep rates unchanged through September was 65%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike was 35%. The probability that the US Fed will keep rates unchanged through October was 51.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike was 41.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike was 7.4%. Citadel Securities said that after inflation had remained above target for an extended period, the US Fed’s continued reluctance to tighten monetary policy had kept long-term bond yields at multi-year highs and posed broader risks to the overall market. Noshad Shah, head of EMEA fixed income sales at Citadel Securities, said that although the policy rate was already 175 basis points below its peak, long-term US Treasury yields were still at their highest levels in nearly 20 years. Shah said: “In my view, this reflects the market’s belief that whether it is the US Fed or the fiscal authorities, when policymakers face difficult choices, they often tend to choose the easier path.”“As long as this situation persists, it will continue to pose risks to the broader market.” On Monday, the US 30-year Treasury yield climbed to a 19-year high, breaking above 5.28%. Data released last week showed that both inflation and consumer demand had slowed down, prompting the bond market to scale back expectations for a US Fed interest rate cut in September. Shah warned that the recent improvement in inflation and a weakening labor market should not be interpreted as meaning interest-rate risks have been eliminated. He noted that more than 55% of core goods prices were still rising. As a result, he believed the US Fed’s policy meeting next month would be a “dead heat.” Goldman Sachs said that, with US inflation cooling, market expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes remained overly aggressive. Goldman’s chief economist Jan Hatzius wrote in a report that, due to weak retail sales, disappointing employment data, and continued slowing in inflation, the likelihood of a US Fed rate hike at the September meeting was “very low” . Hatzius wrote: “Based on our baseline economic forecast, over time the probability that inflation data improve further is higher than the probability that they deteriorate again. We still believe the market’s pricing of the federal funds rate is too hawkish.” Data showed that the market had pushed back expectations for the next 25-basis-point US Fed rate hike to January next year, whereas a week earlier the market had fully expected the US Fed to hike in December. Goldman Sachs believed that, although market pricing was no longer as hawkish, there was still room for expectations for interest rate hikes to fade further. (Jinshi Data) On the macro front: Data due to be released today included the UK three-month ILO unemployment rate for June, the UK unemployment rate for July, the UK claimant count for July, Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for August, the eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for August, the weekly change in US ADP employment for the week ending August 1, US annualized housing starts for July, total US building permits for July, the US import price index month-on-month for July, US industrial output month-on-month for July, and the US pending home sales index month-on-month for July. In addition, watch for: Xiaomi Group’s earnings conference call; Baidu’s earnings conference call. On crude oil: Overnight, both crude oil futures extended the previous session’s gains and continued to rise, with WTI up 3.09% and Brent up 2.91%. The US-Iran memorandum of understanding signed in June this year technically expired on Monday. With the expiration of the US-Iran ceasefire escalating tensions, oil prices strengthened. According to CCTV News, on August 17 local time, US President Trump made it clear that he was not seeking to extend the memorandum of understanding with Iran, and said there was "no timetable" for resolving the Iran issue, adding that he "was not in a hurry". Iran issued a tough response in tandem. US Energy Secretary Wright said the US would “fight a long war” against Iran, and Treasury Secretary Bessent hinted that new economic sanctions are expected to be introduced soon. Russia, meanwhile, has faced fuel shortages after Ukraine’s sustained strikes on refineries, and two regions have implemented gasoline rationing. Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, Chief Analyst at Global Risk Management, said that more oil being shipped through the Strait of Hormuz, combined with the US shift toward economic sanctions, is depressing the geopolitical premium and capping upside room for oil prices; however, the economic pressure strategy means the strait could be closed for months. (Wallstreetcn) Saudi Arabia is providing oil supplies loaded near the coast of Oman, indicating the country may be following the UAE’s lead by transshipping more crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz. According to people familiar with the matter, Saudi Aramco is supplying crude cargoes loaded at locations such as Sohar in the Gulf of Oman via ship-to-ship transfers. The cargoes involved are Arab Medium and Arab Heavy crude, suggesting the crude is highly likely to originate from the Persian Gulf. Saudi Aramco CEO Nasser said in March that the Yanbu pipeline mainly carries Arab Light and Arab Extra Light crude. He said at the time that the country’s offshore oil fields are primarily located in the Persian Gulf, forming the country’s supply of medium and heavy oil. Saudi Aramco declined to comment on the above information. (Jinshi Data APP)

SMM News on August 17: Weaker-than-expected US economic data led the market to lower expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes, with the US dollar index pulling back to around 99.5. Coupled with medium and long-term support from geopolitical safe-haven demand and central bank gold purchases, rising international gold and silver prices lifted China’s futures market, in turn boosting sentiment in the precious metals sector of A-shares. As of around 15:10 on August 17, COMEX gold rose 0.48% to $4,458.7/oz; the most-traded SHFE gold contract gained 1.05% to 955.72 yuan/g; COMEX silver climbed 1.47% to $66.065/oz; the most-traded SHFE silver contract increased 2.48% to 16,143 yuan/kg; and silver T+D rose 2.89% to 16,065 yuan/kg. In addition, the most-traded platinum futures contract surged 3.37% to 436 yuan/g, while the most-traded palladium contract advanced 2.03% to 318.95 yuan/g. Equities: As of the close on the 17th, the precious metals sector rose 3.33%. Among individual stocks, Hunan Silver jumped 6.63%, while Shandong Humon Smelting, Shandong Gold International, Zhongjin Gold, Xingye Silver&Tin, and Shengda Resources posted leading gains. Spot Market Silver On August 17, the morning ex-works reference average spot price for SMM 1# silver was 16,021 yuan/kg, up 3.21% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, higher silver prices suppressed downstream purchasing demand, and the market saw strong wait-and-see sentiment today. Against the backdrop of a widening spot-futures price spread, suppliers became more cautious in quoting, with transactions mainly driven by rigid demand from some acceptance needs, overall leaning toward parity. In Shanghai, early-session quotations were mainly at TD -5 to +10 yuan/kg, with insufficient purchasing momentum and transactions skewed toward the lower end. In Shenzhen, some national-standard cargoes clustered around a slight discount to parity. Today’s premiums quotations against the SHFE the most-traded contract 2610 were a discount of 70-50 yuan/kg. Overall, silver prices rebounded slightly today, but with the news flow lacking further upward momentum, prices are expected to move sideways in the short term. In the spot market, higher silver prices continued to curb follow-up demand, and downstream buyers were mostly on the sidelines at the start of the week. Platinum On August 17, the average spot price of platinum was 431 yuan/g, up 2.62% from the previous trading day. Mainstream quotations for platinum were a discount of 3-2 yuan/g against the PT2610 contract. Driven by today’s rise in futures, suppliers slightly widened their discount quotations versus the previous trading day, but downstream consumption remained weak, and purchase willingness was limited after the futures rally, with procurement mainly consisting of small lots for rigid demand. Suppliers faced obstacles in selling high-priced cargoes, and the bargaining room in actual deals widened somewhat. Warehouse warrant premiums were relatively high, and mainstream quotations mostly hovered around a discount of about 1.5 yuan/g to the most-traded contract. Overall, platinum spot market trading remained sluggish today. Views From Various Parties On the outlook for precious metals, some institutions were relatively optimistic while others were more cautious. The views of several institutions are as follows: Everbright Futures believed that multiple US inflation readings cooled and consumption weakened, prompting the market to lower its expectations for a September rate hike. Gold prices last week generally shot up but then met resistance and pulled back. In the short term, upside resistance for gold was evident; however, stagflation, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchases provided support, leaving limited room for a sharp pullback. On the US Fed, divisions within the US Fed remained apparent: Richmond Fed President Barkin supported keeping rates unchanged, while Cleveland Fed President Hammack reiterated a rate-hike stance. The market was also watching for comments from Wosh; his speech at the global central bank annual meeting at month-end in August was expected to be exceptionally important and could provide some guidance for the September policy meeting. On the geopolitical front, the contest and negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz were still ongoing. After the US July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly weakened, CPI and PPI both came in mild, further confirming a marginal easing of inflation pressures. The market’s extreme pricing for a September rate hike pulled back markedly from earlier highs, which also drove a notable rebound in gold prices. However, as the data were released and the probability of a rate hike declined, the market again became “confused” about the outlook, and profit-taking pushed gold prices somewhat lower. In addition, reports said the Japanese government supported the Bank of Japan’s recent rate hike, and the next window for a hike was likely to fall in September or October, triggering a brief bout of liquidity-panic sentiment in the market. In the short term, gold faced substantial resistance in the upper range and needed time to digest it, along with further catalysts from news flow. Nevertheless, it could be expected that deepening US stagflation, persistent geopolitical risks, and continued increases in holdings by China’s central bank would all provide structural support for gold, keeping the probability of a sharp pullback relatively low. (Zhitong Finance) CICC Wealth Futures: The US-Iran issue remained in stalemate. Iran stated that the US must not enter the Persian Gulf, the Gulf of Oman, or the Strait of Hormuz in the future; however, Trump announced that the Strait of Hormuz was about to become US territory, and the impact of geopolitical factors had yet to be eliminated. In addition, attention should be paid to the US dollar: the US dollar remained weak recently, with the fundamental reason being that US missteps on the military, geopolitical, and financial fronts reduced the US dollar’s safe-haven value. Coupled with midterm election pressure, expectations of passive fiscal tightening, and the trend of “UK gilts-ization of US Treasuries,” the US dollar could weaken further in the medium term, and the year’s high may have already been seen. Overall, gold still had supportive factors in the macro backdrop, and gold prices were expected to retain short-term upward momentum after the pullback. CITIC Securities stated that base metals this week saw some profit-taking at their respective key resistance levels, and base-metals equities also experienced profit-taking. However, given that commodity prices still had significant drivers for further gains, it recommended being more patient with base metals. Gold prices were temporarily under pressure at the $4,500 threshold, but both employment and inflation data reduced the likelihood of rate hikes ahead of the midterm elections, and gold prices remained in a favorable window. A rare high premium emerged on the spot copper side, highlighting an extremely tight inventory situation; copper prices were on the verge of breaking to a new all-time high, and equities—priced at only a little over 10x PE based on a 100,000-yuan copper price—provided a sufficient margin of safety, making the allocation value proposition stand out. (Zhitong Finance) In the latest report released last Thursday, UBS strategists said that falling real interest rates would drive investors back into the gold market, while a weaker US dollar and strong central-bank demand for gold purchases would jointly push gold prices toward the $5,000/oz threshold in H1 next year. (Zhitong Finance) Citadel Securities strategist Scott Rubner, for the first time since 2026, recommended that investors allocate to structured gold positions, saying the current precious-metals market was forming “one of the most attractive upside opportunities in months” . Rubner believed that gold and silver were simultaneously benefiting from multiple tailwinds, including a shift in US Fed policy expectations, continued central-bank gold buying, quant funds still positioned as bears, the options market releasing bullish signals, and retail funds previously drawn by the AI trading wave potentially flowing back in. In his view, multiple factors were creating a rare resonance, and the precious-metals market could enter a new uptrend phase. StoneX senior analyst Matt Simpson said that improving Middle East peace prospects lowered market inflation expectations, pushing gold prices further higher from a consolidation range that had lasted for weeks and sat above $4,000. The US Department of Labor was set to release the non-farm payrolls report tonight. Simpson added: “Regardless of the non-farm payrolls data, $4,000 has proven to be a solid support level—I suspect bulls are waiting for a pullback to seize the opportunity and drive gold prices in a rebound to $4,600. The non-farm payrolls data may bring some fluctuations in the short term, but price action has already shown the direction; gold seems to want to rise.” World Gold Council: In July, positive momentum factors offset negative risk factors, leaving gold prices flat in July. Looking ahead, a second wave of high inflation similar to that in the late 1970s cannot be ruled out. But that in itself does not mean gold will surge, as it will depend on real interest rates, the US dollar, growth expectations, demand from Asian investors, and how central banks respond. Kelvin Wong, Senior Market Analyst at OANDA, said: “The link between gold and oil prices still exists, because oil prices have a huge impact on inflationary pressures in the global economy. If we can see a clear roadmap for further de-escalation of the (Middle East) situation, gold prices may continue to rise.” (Jinshi Data APP) A CITIC Securities research report said that since the beginning of this year, gold prices shot up and then fell rapidly, but we believe gold is still in a major bull market, driven by the accelerating expansion of the US fiscal deficit, hard-to-bridge geopolitical rifts amid de-globalization, and continued support from ongoing gold purchases by global central banks. Therefore, we believe this round of decline in gold prices is only a temporary adjustment within a bull market. The current pullback has approached historical extremes, and around $4,000/oz is highly likely to be the bottom area for this cycle. Looking ahead, the impact of the Strait of Hormuz situation on gold prices is expected to shift from suppression to support, US Fed monetary policy may be more optimistic than market expectations, and together with a surge in US military spending pushing up the deficit, gold prices are expected to return to an upward channel within the year. Everbright Futures, looking ahead to August, said the short-term trend in gold prices depends on how the US-Iran situation evolves. If the conflict continues or spillovers expand, market sentiment may turn weaker again, and under expectations of liquidity risks, gold prices may continue to underperform; but if there is a substantive breakthrough in negotiations, gold prices may stabilize in the short term and see a rebound-driven repair. At that time, if financial markets both inside and outside China recover in tandem, it can be further confirmed. However, it can be expected that with support from rigid central bank buying and allocation demand, even if another pullback occurs, the downside room will be relatively limited. In addition, the Jackson Hole global central bank symposium at the end of August may see Walsh outline a medium-term policy framework; before that, the US CPI data on the 12th will be a key validation indicator. Overall, gold may show a solid bottom and be in a sentiment-repair phase, warranting a cautiously optimistic view. The core risks are that the US-Iran conflict again drives oil prices to climb above $90/oz, US inflation data rebounds far above expectations, and the probability of a September rate hike continues to rise, which may continue to suppress market sentiment; however, judging from the performance of financial markets outside China and oil prices, neither strongly supports a full-scale escalation of the US-Iran conflict. A Reuters poll showed that after gold prices pulled back sharply from record highs in January, analysts cut their gold price forecasts for the first time since the end of 2023, but most still expect central bank buying and concerns about fiscal sustainability to provide support. In a survey of 29 analysts and traders conducted over the past three weeks, the median forecast for 2026 gold prices was $4,509 per ounce. This was below $4,916 three months earlier and marked the first downward revision in 11 quarters. The average forecast price for 2027 was $4,610, versus $5,100 in the previous survey. Gold prices hit a record high of $5,595 per ounce in January, but in Q2 they saw a sharp pull back as the Iran war intensified energy inflation and pushed up expectations for rate hikes, posting the worst quarterly performance since 2013. Since the outbreak of the war, spot gold has fallen by about 22%. (Jinshi Data APP) ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey noted that gold prices rose on Monday because a sharp drop in oil prices eased inflation concerns and weighed on the US dollar and US Treasury yield. The steep fall in oil prices on Monday alleviated inflation worries and the outlook for further monetary tightening. The move followed a pause in US-Iran hostilities. Lower oil prices also pressured the US dollar and US Treasury yield, improving the outlook for non-interest-bearing assets ahead of this week’s US Fed meeting. The market is now focused on the US Fed and the upcoming release of US inflation data for further guidance on the interest-rate outlook. If yield remains subdued, gold prices should continue to find support around current levels. However, any hawkish surprise from the US Fed could limit further upside room in the near term. Commerzbank: Cut its year-end gold price forecast to $4,500 per troy ounce. Platinum prices are expected to reach $2,000 per troy ounce by the end of the year, versus a previous forecast of $2,100. Citi said its base case showed that, despite Q3 historically being a seasonal peak for stockpiling, India’s gold imports would remain subdued in Q3. This was due to ample scrap supply, cautious consumer sentiment, and a discount in local prices, which curbed demand for fresh imports. However, Citi still set its 0–3 month short-term gold target at $4,500. The bank said this target assumed easing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and a less hawkish turn by the US Fed; in the near term, many risks could still drive gold prices to retest lower levels, including major re-escalation, AI-driven de-risking, and a persistently hawkish stance from the US Fed. Analysts at ANZ Research said in a report that physical gold demand for the metal and buying by central banks were supporting the gold market. The analysts added that while gold prices faced near-term headwinds from expectations of US Fed tightening and a firm US dollar, after months of exchange-traded fund outflows, gold investment positioning looked very thin, suggesting that room for further declines could be limited. A high-interest-rate environment typically weighs on non-yielding assets such as gold. (Zhitong Finance) Goldman Sachs said that, despite pressure from expectations of a more hawkish US Fed, central bank buying is expected to provide a floor for gold. Demand remains strong; the bank estimated that central banks purchased 81 mt of gold in May, with the three-month average monthly purchases at 67 mt—well above the pre-2022 average of 17 mt. Goldman analysts said, “We believe the trend of central banks increasing gold holdings will continue for many years, as they hedge geopolitical and financial risks through reserve diversification.” The bank forecast that average monthly purchases in this year and next will be 50 mt and 40 mt, respectively. (Jinshi Data APP) Soojin Kim, an analyst at Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, said, “Recent price action suggests the market is placing greater emphasis on the possibility that US interest rates will stay high for longer, rather than gold’s traditional safe-haven demand. This leaves gold vulnerable to pressure unless geopolitical risks further translate into a broad deterioration in financial market sentiment.” (Jinshi Data APP) Asset manager Fidelity International said it plans to rebuild its gold position, which it reduced earlier this year, at an appropriate time in the future, believing that gold’s long-term drivers remain strong. Ian Samson, a multi-asset portfolio manager at Fidelity International, said recently, “We plan to increase our gold holdings again; it’s just a question of timing.” He said he cut his gold allocation to neutral from January to February this year, when a multi-year bull market in gold abruptly ended. Samson expects the gold market to re-enter a bull market at some point in 2027. The rationale for a return to a bull market would only be undermined if “governments return to fiscal discipline and central banks are truly committed to pushing inflation back down,” “but I don’t think we’re in that world right now.” Samson also said that continued gold purchases by central banks (a key driver of the previous gold bull market) will continue to support gold prices. Recommended Reading:

[SMM Aluminum Express News] Indonesia is preparing to launch a new Mineral and Strategic Commodities Exchange, tentatively called the Indonesia Commodity Exchange (Icomex), with operations targeted to begin on 1 January 2027. Minister of State Secretary Prasetyo Hadi said on 17 August that Icomex would operate broadly like the Indonesia Stock Exchange, but for commodity trading. The government is still developing the price-formation mechanism, which is expected to take into account production costs and international market prices. The government has not yet decided which commodities will be required or eligible to trade through Icomex. CPO, nickel and coal have been cited as examples, but Prasetyo stressed that the final list remains under discussion. The government is also considering how the existing Indonesia Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (ICDX) would fit into the new structure, including whether ICDX could be integrated into Icomex or continue operating separately.

SMM News, Aug 17: Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals in the domestic market rose across the board. SHFE copper rose 1.76%, and SHFE aluminum rose 0.58%. SHFE lead rose 0.41%. SHFE zinc rose 0.99%. SHFE tin rose 0.85%. SHFE nickel rose 1%. In addition, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract rose 0.69%, and the most-traded alumina contract rose 0.33%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract fell 1.18%. The most-traded silicon metal contract was flat at 8,665 yuan/mt. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract rose 0.94%. Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore fell 0.77%, rebar fell 0.1%, and hot-rolled coil rose 0.46%. Stainless steel rose 0.42%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 0.66%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 0.58%. Overseas base metals: As of 11:42, LME metals rose across the board. LME copper rose 1.36%, LME aluminum rose 0.68%, and LME lead rose 0.42%. LME zinc rose 0.58%. LME tin rose 0.43%. LME nickel rose 0.62%. Precious metals: As of 11:42, COMEX gold rose 0.28% and COMEX silver rose 1.02%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold rose 0.89%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 1.92%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract rose 2.64%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract rose 2.05%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe shipping container freight contract rose 8.59% to 1,725.5 points. As of 11:42 on Aug 17, midday moves in select futures: Spot and Fundamentals Silver: Cooling rate-hike expectations provided support, but liquidity-risk disruptions limited gains, with silver prices consolidating at highs. Wait-and-see sentiment in the spot market was strong, and transactions tended toward small declines… Macro Front China: PBOC: Based on the demand of primary dealers for open market operations, the volume of 7-day reverse repo operations on Aug 17, 2026 was zero. Meanwhile, 565.5 billion yuan in overnight reverse repo operations was conducted. (Jinshi Data APP) [China Made Major Progress in Key Technologies for Rare Earth Detection] It was learned today that recently, China made major progress in key technologies for rare earth detection. For a long time, accurately determining the content of rare earth impurities in high-purity rare earths has faced the challenge of matrix interference, which has severely constrained precise control over the quality of rare earth products. To break through this technical bottleneck, a dedicated technical R&D effort was carried out relying on the Key Laboratory of the State Administration for Market Regulation (Rare Earth Product Detection and Traceability) established at Jiangxi University of Science and Technology. Through the unremitting efforts of the research team, breakthroughs were achieved in detection technology, and overall technical capabilities reached a new level. The research team successfully developed multiple key technologies for rare earth detection, among which the inductively coupled plasma tandem mass spectrometry method for directly determining the content of rare earth impurities in high-purity rare earths was particularly outstanding. This technology successfully overcame bottlenecks of traditional detection methods, such as the need to separate the matrix in advance and high detection limits. It offers significant advantages including high sensitivity, high accuracy, and rapid detection, enabling direct and precise determination of trace rare earth impurities in high-purity rare earths and providing solid and strong technical support for quality control of rare earth products. (CCTV News) US dollar: As of 11:42, the US dollar index fell 0.09% to 99.55. According to CME “FedWatch”: the probability that the US Fed would keep rates unchanged through September was 66.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike was 33.1%. The probability that the US Fed would keep rates unchanged through October was 53.6%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike was 39.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike was 6.6%. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said recent CPI data were encouraging, but inflation in May and June had still been relatively high; only if the momentum from June continued over the next three to four months could one be confident that prices were steadily returning to the 2% target. He supported keeping rates unchanged in July, saying inflation remained the biggest concern and that the economy and employment were “basically stable.” He warned that continued declines in retail sales would be concerning, as consumption is a key pillar of the US economy. In addition, he expressed concern about the recent pullback in productivity growth, saying that if AI-driven growth could not be sustained, the narrative around AI and monetary policy would need to be revisited. As for whether to reduce the number of policy meetings, Goolsbee said he had no strong view and was willing to wait for the working group’s recommendations. (Jin10 Data APP) Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius noted in global macro research released on August 16 that a rate hike at the September FOMC meeting “had become very unlikely,” unless the August data released in early September showed a dramatic shift—which was not his base case. This judgment was not based on a single data point, but on three main threads turning simultaneously: cooling consumption, employment trends nearing stagnation, and improving inflation. (Wallstreetcn) On the data front: Today will see the release of data including China’s July total retail sales (YoY), China’s July industrial value added above designated size (YoY), Canada’s July CPI (MoM), the US August New York Fed Manufacturing Index, and the US August NAHB Housing Market Index. Key Items to Watch: The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will release the monthly report on housing sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities; the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on national economic performance; the National Energy Administration will release data on total society-wide electricity consumption around the 15th of each month. Crude Oil: As of 11:42, oil prices in both markets rose, with WTI up 0.22% and Brent up 0.46%. Oil prices edged up on Monday as traders looked for the next catalyst to drive direction. A new round of Israeli strikes on Lebanon, as well as the possibility of new US sanctions on Iran, heightened geopolitical uncertainty. (Jinshi Data APP) Data from shipping intelligence firm Kpler showed that vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz declined over the past weekend as tankers came under attack and US-Iran talks also stalled. Five bulk commodity vessels passed through the strait on Saturday, while none passed on Sunday, a sharp drop from 31 over the previous weekend. (Jinshi Data APP) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM News on August 15: Metals market: Overnight last Friday, base metals in the domestic market mostly rose. SHFE copper rose 0.49%; on a weekly basis, SHFE copper fell 0.31% for the week. SHFE aluminum was flat at 23,945 yuan/mt. SHFE lead fell 0.22%, SHFE zinc rose 0.41%, and SHFE tin rose 0.36%. SHFE nickel edged up 0.07%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract fell 0.19%, while the most-traded cast aluminum contract rose 0.24%. Overnight last Friday, ferrous metals showed mixed performance. Stainless steel fell 0.49%, iron ore fell 0.35%, and rebar fell 0.03%. Hot-rolled coil rose 0.34%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.7%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 1.97%. Overnight last Friday, overseas metals: LME base metals all rose. LME copper rose 0.26%; on a weekly basis, LME copper extended gains for seven consecutive weeks, up 1.07% for the week. LME aluminum rose 0.22%. LME lead rose 0.26%. LME zinc rose 0.45%. LME tin rose 0.36%. LME nickel rose 0.3%. Overnight last Friday, precious metals : COMEX gold rose 0.26%; COMEX gold posted a fourth consecutive weekly gain, up 0.73% for the week. COMEX silver fell 0.26%; COMEX silver logged a second consecutive weekly gain, up 2.09% for the week. Overnight last Friday, the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 0.6%; SHFE gold posted a fourth consecutive weekly gain, up 1.68% for the week. The most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 0.57%; SHFE silver extended gains for four consecutive weeks, up 3.45% for the week. As of 7:17 on August 15, overnight last Friday’s closing prices: Macro front China: [Central bank: Aggregate social financing rose by 2.225 trillion yuan in the first seven months; M2 in July was up 7.7% YoY] According to preliminary statistics from the central bank, in the first seven months of 2026, the cumulative increase in aggregate social financing totaled 2.225 trillion yuan, down 174 billion yuan from the same period last year. Among them, RMB loans to the real economy increased by 1.017 trillion yuan, an increase of 214 billion yuan less YoY; foreign-currency loans to the real economy (converted into RMB) increased by 169.4 billion yuan, an increase of 241.9 billion yuan more YoY; entrusted loans decreased by 81 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.1 billion yuan more YoY; trust loans decreased by 67.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 226.4 billion yuan more YoY; undiscounted bank acceptance bills decreased by 178.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 41 billion yuan less YoY; net financing of enterprise bonds was 252 billion yuan, 110 billion yuan more YoY; net financing of government bonds was 776 billion yuan, 115 billion yuan less YoY; and domestic equity financing by non-financial enterprises was 406.1 billion yuan, 184.7 billion yuan more YoY. In the first seven months, RMB loans increased by 10.38 trillion yuan. By sector, loans to households decreased by 827.1 billion yuan, of which short-term loans decreased by 928.1 billion yuan and medium- and long-term loans increased by 101 billion yuan; loans to enterprises and public institutions increased by 11 trillion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 4.34 trillion yuan, medium- and long-term loans increased by 5.32 trillion yuan, and bill financing increased by 1.19 trillion yuan; loans to non-bank financial institutions decreased by 394.4 billion yuan. At the end of July, the outstanding balance of broad money (M2) was 355.51 trillion yuan, up 7.7% YoY. The outstanding balance of narrow money (M1) was 115.46 trillion yuan, up 4% YoY. The outstanding balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 14.82 trillion yuan, up 11.6% YoY. In the first seven months, net cash injection totaled 725.5 billion yuan. [Shanghai: Promoting Leading Industries Such as Integrated Circuits, Civil Aviation, Smart Vehicles, and High-End Equipment to Accumulate Strength and Gain Momentum] Today (August 14), Shanghai Municipal Party Secretary Chen Jining spent an entire day conducting a survey and presiding over a symposium in the Lingang Special Area of the China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. Chen Jining pointed out that the Lingang Special Area should always place advanced manufacturing in a prominent position and unswervingly enhance its capacity and core competitiveness. It should seize the opportunities of digitalization, intelligence, and green development, place greater emphasis on cultivating industrial ecosystems while ensuring project implementation, focus on cultivating industry leaders and high-growth enterprises, and focus on developing industrial platforms and improving service capabilities, thereby enhancing the resilience and stickiness of industrial development and promoting leading industries such as integrated circuits, civil aviation, smart vehicles, and high-end equipment to accumulate strength and gain momentum. It should leverage the advantage of abundant manufacturing scenarios, promote the digital and intelligent transformation of industry, increase the application of industrial robots, vertical models, and intelligent agents in key links such as production and manufacturing, and equipment operation and maintenance, and drive the systematic transformation of the entire process covering industrial design, pilot-scale validation, inspection and testing, and marketing and operations. It should optimize the business environment, provide better services for enterprises, and accelerate the cultivation of world-class enterprises. It should deepen the reform of the management system of development zones, and refine and improve reform plans around key links such as functional positioning, spatial integration, professional services, and assessment and evaluation. (Shanghai Release) On the US dollar: Last Friday, the US dollar index fell 0.32% overnight, closing at 99.64. On a weekly basis: the US dollar index rose on the week, up 0.04% for the week. US July retail sales released on Friday decreased 0.6% MoM, marking the largest decline in more than a year. Coupled with mild inflation data this week, market pricing for a US Fed rate hike in September collapsed further. The US dollar index fell. Under the triple blow of mild CPI on Wednesday, zero MoM growth in PPI on Thursday, and unexpectedly weak retail sales on Friday, the probability of a September rate hike plunged from 75% at the end of July to around 25%; CME FedWatch showed that 67% of traders were betting on rates being held steady in September. The focus of market pricing has shifted from "how many more rate hikes are needed" to "whether this round of rate hikes has ended".(Wallstreetcn) The US Department of Commerce announced on Friday that retail sales in July fell 0.6% MoM, the largest decline in more than a year, while market expectations were for slight growth. Core control group sales excluding automobiles, building materials, and gas stations fell 0.4%, the worst performance since January 2025. The University of Michigan's preliminary August Consumer Sentiment Index released on the same day was only 51, well below the expected 54.5.(Wallstreetcn) US consumer confidence fell for the first time in three months as households worried about deteriorating business conditions and rising inflation. According to survey data released by the University of Michigan on Friday, the preliminary August consumer sentiment index fell to 51, below the final July reading of 55.2. The median expectation among economists was 55. Consumers expect prices to rise 4.3% over the next year, edging up MoM and markedly above the level before the Iran conflict broke out in February. They also expect prices to rise at an annual rate of 3.3% over the next 5 to 10 years. After two consecutive months of improvement, consumer confidence in both the short- and long-term economic outlook deteriorated. Since the beginning of the year, changes in consumers' expectations for the labour market have been relatively small. The survey showed that consumers were increasingly worried about inflation, while concerns about unemployment declined. This survey covered responses collected from July 28 to August 10. During this period, the US national average gasoline price hovered above $4 per gallon. Another report released on Friday showed that US retail sales in July recorded their largest decline in over a year, as consumers cut back on automobile and online store purchases.(Jin10 Data App) US Fed's Goolsbee said he supported the decision to keep interest rates unchanged in July. He pointed out that the two most recent productivity data readings were disappointing, and if productivity continues to decline, the US Fed may need to reassess market expectations for artificial intelligence (AI). Goolsbee said the latest CPI data were encouraging, but more data are needed to make a judgment; continued consumption weakness is concerning, though the weakness in retail sales is currently only a single-month performance. At the same time, US GDP and the labour market were basically stable overall.(from Wallstreetcn App) According to CME "US Fed Watch": the probabilities for the US Fed in September are no change in interest rates (67.5%) and a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike (32.5%). The probabilities for the US Fed in October are no change in interest rates (53.3%), a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike (39.8%), and a cumulative 50-basis-point rate hike (6.8%).(Jin10 Data App) On the macro front: This week will see the release of China July total retail sales of consumer goods YoY, China July value added of industrial enterprises above designated size YoY, Canada July CPI MoM, US August New York Fed Manufacturing Index, US August NAHB Housing Market Index, UK ILO unemployment rate for the three months to June, UK July unemployment rate, UK July unemployment benefit claimant count, Germany August ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, Eurozone August ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, US weekly ADP employment change for the week ending August 1, US July total annualized housing starts, US July total building permits, US July import price index MoM, US July industrial output MoM, US July pending home sales index MoM, UK July CPI MoM, UK July retail price index MoM, Eurozone June seasonally adjusted current account, Eurozone July final CPI YoY, Eurozone July final CPI MoM, China July SWIFT RMB share in global payments, China 1-year loan prime rate for August 20, Australia July seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany July PPI MoM, Switzerland July trade balance, UK August CBI industrial orders balance, US initial jobless claims for the week ending August 15, US August Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, US July Conference Board Leading Indicators MoM, UK August GfK Consumer Confidence Index, Japan July core CPI YoY, UK July public sector net borrowing, UK July seasonally adjusted retail sales MoM, France August flash manufacturing PMI, Germany August flash manufacturing PMI, Eurozone August flash manufacturing PMI, UK August flash manufacturing PMI, UK August flash services PMI, Canada June retail sales MoM, US August flash S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, global flash services PMI, Eurozone August flash consumer confidence index, and other data. In addition, this week also requires attention: the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will release the monthly report on residential selling prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities; the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the performance of the national economy; European Central Bank President Lagarde will attend the "Global Economic Outlook" discussion at the World Economic Forum International Business Council (IBC) meeting; the US Fed will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting; and Hang Seng Indexes will announce the Hang Seng Index Series Review results for Q2 2026. On the crude oil front: Last Friday, futures for both crude oils rose in overnight trading, with WTI crude oil futures up 1.42% and Brent crude oil futures up 2.01%. On a weekly basis: WTI crude oil futures rose for the week, up 5.4%; Brent crude oil futures closed higher for the week, up 6.31%. International crude oil prices rose, driven by a near standstill in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Two vessels were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz that day, and traffic came to a near standstill. The US said it could maintain a maritime blockade against Iran indefinitely, and Trump also said that the US would impose severe economic measures on Iran. Capital Economics estimates that current crude oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are only about 4 million to 5 million barrels per day, far below pre-conflict levels. Dated Brent maintained a spot premium structure, indicating continued tightness in physical supply. Capacity at three of the world’s four major refining centers has been impaired, and surging refined product prices are being passed directly to end consumers. (Wall Street CN) Traders said that, with the Strait of Hormuz still largely closed, Asian refiners were seeking alternative supplies for deliveries later this year, and at least four Asian refiners purchased US crude this week. Both the US and Iran claim control of the Strait of Hormuz, and vessel traffic through the strait fell below the monthly average in the latter half of this week. With no sign that shipping through the strait will resume normal flows in the short term, tightening fuel supply will push up refining margins, prompting refiners to lock in crude inventories needed for the coming months from markets outside the Gulf region. South Korea’s GS Caltex purchased 2 million barrels of Mars crude from Shell and plans to take delivery in November. Traders said the cargo was priced at a premium of about $13 to $14 per barrel over the October Dubai benchmark price. Japan’s third-largest refiner Cosmo Energy Holdings bought Mars crude from Trafigura; Japan’s largest refiner ENEOS purchased 2 million barrels of WTI crude from Trafigura at a premium of more than $10 per barrel over the October WTI price and plans to take delivery in November. (Jin10 Data App) US Energy Information Administration (EIA): US petroleum production is expected to average 13.83 million barrels per day in August, compared with 13.82 million barrels per day in July; production is expected to average 13.77 million barrels per day in September. (Jin10 Data App) It is worth noting that, due to contract rollover, the September NYMEX New York crude oil futures will complete final floor trading at 2:30 on August 21 and final electronic trading at 5:00 a.m. Please pay attention to exchange announcements regarding expiration and contract rollover to manage risk. In addition, some trading platforms usually set the expiration time of US crude oil contracts one day earlier than the official NYMEX schedule, so please pay extra attention. Recommended Reading:

SMM News on August 14: Metals market: As of the midday close, most base metals in the domestic market declined. SHFE copper fell 0.2%, and SHFE aluminum fell 1.2%. SHFE lead fell 0.81%. SHFE zinc fell 0.51%. SHFE tin rose 0.17%. SHFE nickel fell 1.12%. In addition, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract fell 1.43%, while the most-traded alumina contract edged down slightly. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 2.23%. The most-traded silicon metal contract rose 1.63%. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract rose 1.27%. Most ferrous metals rose. Iron ore rose 0.42%, rebar rose 0.43%, and hot-rolled coil rose 0.71%. Stainless steel fell 1.97%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.25%, while the most-traded coke contract fell 0.29%. Overseas base metals: as of 11:39, LME metals fell across the board. LME copper fell 0.32%, LME aluminum fell 0.23%, and LME lead fell 0.37%. LME zinc fell 0.45%. LME tin fell 0.24%. LME nickel fell 0.3%. Precious metals: as of 11:39, COMEX gold fell 0.9%, and COMEX silver fell 1.16%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold fell 1.94%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 2.36%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 2.21%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract fell 3.33%. As of the midday close, the most-traded European container shipping contract fell 1.3% to 1,593.5 points. As of 11:39 on August 14, midday moves in some futures: Spot and Fundamentals Platinum: Spot: mainstream quotations for platinum were a discount of 3-2 yuan/g against the PT2610 contract, alongside the exit the market of some large-discount cargoes and a narrowing import price spread... Macro front China: [PBOC reverse repo operations recorded net injections of 348 billion yuan on the day; net injections of 250.5 billion yuan for the week] The PBOC conducted 349 billion yuan in overnight reverse repos and 1,000 billion yuan in outright reverse repos today. As 1 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos and 1,000 billion yuan of outright reverse repos matured today, it recorded net injections of 348 billion yuan on the day. This week, the PBOC conducted 18 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos, 349 billion yuan of overnight reverse repos, and 1,000 billion yuan of outright reverse repos. As 116.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos and 1,000 billion yuan of outright reverse repos matured this week, it recorded net injections of 250.5 billion yuan for the week. (Jinshi Data APP) US dollar: As of 11:39, the US dollar index fell 0.07% to 99.89. The US July PPI data showed inflation was cooling, and coupled with falling oil prices, the market further bet that the US Fed would not raise rates next month. (Wallstreetcn) The US July PPI came in below expectations, helped by further declines in energy and food costs. The PPI report followed the consumer price data, which showed inflation was slowing down, further confirming signs that the early-war energy shock continued to fade. However, the recent renewed escalation in the Middle East raised concerns about sticky inflation. Before the next policy decision in mid-September, US Fed officials will receive additional consumer and producer price data as well as another labour market report. At present, policymakers need to balance persistent inflation pressures against the recent slowdown in hiring. The PPI also includes several components that the US Fed watches closely because they feed into its preferred inflation gauge—the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. Signals from these components were mixed. Portfolio management fees posted the biggest increase in more than a year, and hospital outpatient care costs also rose sharply, while prices for physician services and hospital inpatient care were mild. (Jin10 Data APP) According to CME “FedWatch”: the probability that the US Fed keeps rates unchanged through September was 65.2%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-bp hike was 34.8%. The probability that the US Fed keeps rates unchanged through October was 50.1%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-bp hike was 41.8% and a cumulative 50-bp hike was 8.1%. (Jin10 Data APP) Other currencies: Speculative investors increasingly bet that the RBA will raise rates again in November, as inflation remains above the central bank’s target. Swap market pricing currently implied about a 45% probability of a 25-bp hike by November, up from 38% before Tuesday’s RBA rate decision. November 2026 interbank cash rate futures traded on the ASX derivatives market saw activity rise to the highest level in more than three months on the day, indicating stronger speculative interest. These bets suggested the market was increasingly skeptical that the RBA’s tightening cycle has ended. Although policymakers kept rates unchanged this week, with inflation still above the RBA’s 2%–3% target range, traders will continue to watch upcoming price and labour market data for clues on whether another rate hike is needed this year. (Jin10 Data APP) Data: Today, the following data were due to be released: China’s July total electricity consumption (YoY; TBD) and China’s July total electricity consumption (TBD); the US July retail sales (MoM), the preliminary US August 1-year inflation expectations, the US June business inventories (MoM), and the preliminary US August University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index; France’s final July CPI (MoM); the eurozone revised Q2 GDP (YoY), the final Q2 seasonally adjusted employment (QoQ), and the eurozone June seasonally adjusted trade balance; Canada’s June wholesale sales (MoM), among others. In addition, China’s refined oil products will enter a new pricing adjustment window (TBD), and the National Energy Administration will release nationwide electricity consumption data around the 15th of each month (TBD). Crude oil: As of 11:39, oil prices in both markets edged up, with WTI up 0.09% and Brent up 0.06%. The IEA and OPEC successively lowered their demand expectations, while tensions around Iran remained elevated but did not further escalate, capping oil price gains. Pressure in the refined products market was more severe, with the US diesel crack spread nearing $100 per barrel, close to the peak seen in early March when the US-Iran conflict first erupted. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on Tuesday that over the past week, the daily average crude oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz was about 9 million barrels, higher than most industry estimates, and the market faced significant uncertainty in assessing the actual size of the supply shortfall. Francisco Blanch, Head of Global Research at Bank of America, said in an interview with Bloomberg TV: Unless the geopolitical situation improves, it is hard for me to see oil prices pulling back quickly. If inventory is depleted, price fluctuations are bound to amplify sharply, and demand will then be forced to contract. (Wallstreetcn) Spot Market Snapshot: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

On the macro front , copper prices rose first and then fell this week, with the price center lifting WoW. US July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000, significantly weaker than expected; however, CPI fell to 3.4% YoY and core CPI declined to 2.5%, with inflation largely in line with market expectations, easing concerns about inflation exceeding expectations. In addition, the slowdown in US July PPI growth exceeded expectations, and traders reduced bets on a US Fed rate hike in September, with the latest probability at 32%; LME copper bottomed out. Domestically, the People's Bank of China said it would strengthen counter-cyclical adjustment, promptly plan and introduce incremental policies, and step up efforts to expand domestic demand, providing some support to market sentiment. Geopolitically, US-Iran negotiations and arrangements for navigation through the Strait of Hormuz continued to swing back and forth, with all parties sending different signals on ceasefire deadlines, safe shipping routes and control of the strait. The situation in the Middle East remained highly uncertain, prompting copper prices to fluctuate at high levels. As of 9:00 a.m. Beijing time on August 14, 2026, LME copper touched a weekly high of $14,262/mt, then fell to a low of $13,955/mt, down $307/mt from the high, a decline of about 2.15%; the most-traded SHFE copper contract touched a low of 107,130 yuan/mt, then rose to a high of 108,740 yuan/mt, up 1,610 yuan/mt from the low, a gain of about 1.50%. Fundamentals side , as of August 13, SMM copper inventories in major Chinese regions fell by 2,200 mt from last Monday to 116,700 mt, and total inventories were 8,900 mt lower than the 125,600 mt recorded in the same period last year. Domestic inventories remained at relatively low levels. Supply side, typhoon weather briefly affected cargo flows in east China at the start of the week; as of August 14, open interest in the SHFE copper 2608 contract was 11,615 lots, equivalent to 58,000 mt of metal content; over the same period, registered copper warrants on the SHFE stood at 27,200 mt, and potential deliverable volume was about 2.1 times warrant volume. Open interest in nearby contracts remained significantly higher than current registered warrants; combined with the upcoming delivery, this widened inter-month backwardation and lifted position-rolling costs for suppliers. Suppliers showed greater willingness to sell for cash, boosting spot supply in circulation. Of these, high-quality copper supply remained relatively limited, while non-registered copper supply was ample, and brand differentiation continued. Import side, the nearby LME backwardation structure widened, while the SHFE/LME price ratio for imports weakened; downstream purchase willingness remained low, and actual market deals were sluggish. Demand side, the traditional consumption off-season combined with high copper prices meant downstream users still mainly made just-in-time procurement, and overall transactions showed no significant improvement. For secondary copper, tax-inclusive supply tightened and invoice costs rose; scrap utilization enterprises pushed for lower prices, and the price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap stayed high. Looking ahead to next week , on the macro front, US employment data weakened significantly, CPI and PPI pointed to easing inflation pressures, market expectations for a September rate hike continued to decline, and expectations for domestic incremental policy will also continue to support copper prices. If US economic data strengthen again and the US Fed sends further hawkish signals, renewed rate hike expectations and a stronger US dollar will pressure copper prices. Fundamentals side, COMEX inventories continued to increase, while LME inventories and deliverable stocks continued to decline; supply outside the US tightened, supporting LME copper. In China, after delivery of the SHFE copper 2608 contract ends, nearby open interest pressure will ease and the inter-month backwardation will gradually narrow; domestic copper production and imported arrivals will increase, and combined with the consumption off-season and high copper prices, upside room for SHFE copper will be limited. In the short term, fundamentals will dominate the divergence between SHFE and LME, while macro expectations will mainly provide bottom support for copper prices. Overall, LME copper is expected to trade at $13,950-$14,150/mt next week, and the most-traded SHFE copper contract is expected to trade at 107,000-108,500 yuan/mt. Support for LME copper is stronger than for SHFE copper; LME copper is expected to rise, and SHFE copper will follow with modest gains, with LME outperforming SHFE overall.