[Price Review] At the beginning of the week, silver prices fluctuated upward amid Trump-related remarks and the possibility of easing conflict. However, on Thursday (April 2), after Trump delivered a speech claiming a "swift, decisive, and overwhelming victory" in the war against Iran, precious metal prices plunged sharply. The chaotic signals and uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran negotiation situation themselves became a "bearish factor" for precious metal prices. In the short term, heated fund flows and weakening investment demand caused gold and silver to shift from "safe-haven inflation-resistant assets" into "liquidity tools," and the bearish sentiment in precious metals continued. As for the gold/silver ratio, as of April 1, the LBMA gold/silver ratio stood at 63, and is expected to maintain a fluctuating consolidation trend in the short term. [Key Data] Bullish: The final reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for March in the US was 53.3, below both expectations and the previous reading Bearish: US ADP employment in March was 62,000, below both expectations and the previous reading US retail sales m/m in February rose 0.6, above both expectations and the previous reading The reported US ISM manufacturing PMI for March was 52.7, above the previous reading but below expectations Data and macro releases to watch next week include: April 3 (Friday): The US is set to release seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate for March. The market generally expects March payroll additions to rebound to 55,000. Bloomberg forecasts that, driven by a rebound in jobs after the end of the strike, nonfarm payrolls in March will increase by 80,000, while the unemployment rate remains stable at 4.4. April 9 (Wednesday): US February PCE Price Index April 10 (Thursday): US March CPI data On the Middle East conflict timeline, US President Trump postponed the airstrike on Iranian energy facilities to 20:00 ET on April 6. Trump said the US would "soon" withdraw from the conflict with Iran, but if the situation changes after the withdrawal, it may still re-engage. Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, on April 1, Ebrahim Azizi, chairman of the Iranian Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, posted a message addressing US President Trump, saying that the Strait of Hormuz would definitely reopen, but not to the US. [Price Forecast] In the short term, the direction of the US-Iran conflict and cooling expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts are the main factors affecting silver prices. The lasting impact of persistently high oil prices has kept precious metal prices under pressure. On industrial demand, after the Middle East conflict pushed up energy costs, expectations for global manufacturing activity may be reassessed, and silver has been hit by the dual blow of "safe-haven failure + collapsing demand narrative." On China fundamentals side, end-user enterprises showed weak willingness to stock up raw materials in April. On the one hand, declining PV end-user production schedules led to weaker expectations for new silver nitrate orders. On the other hand, other end-users showed strong caution and reluctance to buy on falling prices, aggressively bargaining down premiums for procurement. As the SHFE April delivery approaches, suppliers generally said that amid difficult spot silver ingot transactions, they may mainly monetize through delivery. Social inventory of silver ingots may see a slight accumulation, and premiums are still expected to have room to pull back further. Next week, the basic situation of silver prices remaining in the doldrums is expected to be difficult to improve, but close attention should be paid to disruptions to market sentiment from changes in geopolitical conflict and adjustments in fund flows.

【SMM Steel】Hyundai Steel issued FAC to SMS group after upgrading its Dangjin #1 CGL. The two-phase project integrated X-Pact® automation and upgraded hydraulics to improve strip quality and stability. Stage 1 added a new strip washer/dryer. Stage 2 focused on the skin-pass mill for precise flatness. The upgrades reduce downtime and extend equipment life, building on a partnership since 2005.

SMM, April 2: During the day, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at 16,765 yuan/mt, then moved sideways at the high range of 16,690-16,750 yuan/mt, before dropping back slightly late in the session to a low of 16,675 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 16,695 yuan/mt. It posted a small bullish candlestick, up 40 yuan/mt, or 0.24%. Driven by bullish sentiment, lead prices overall fluctuated upward today. In terms of supply, the resumption of work at primary lead enterprises drove supply growth, while in the secondary lead market, work resumptions and maintenance proceeded in parallel, with some small and medium-sized plants planning to cut production due to insufficient raw material; demand side, elevated lead prices suppressed downstream purchase willingness, and spot transactions were weak. SMM expected lead prices to continue consolidating in the short term. Data source statement: Except for public information, all other data was processed and derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

[SMM Rare Earth Flash] Australia’s Astron released the bankable feasibility study report for Phase I of the Donald rare earth and mineral sands project in Victoria, confirming the project’s strong economic value, and plans to make the final investment decision in Q2 2026. The report showed that total project investment was about AUD 450 million, pre-tax net present value was AUD 759 million, the internal yield was 19.3%, the mine life was about 40 years, and rare earth concentrate is expected to be produced in Q1 2028. The project’s main products include key rare earths such as neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium, as well as zircon and titanium products. Phase I is expected to produce about 7,100 mt of rare earth concentrate annually.

SMM News, April 2: Guangdong: Spot premiums in the region continued to rise this week. Robust downstream demand, coupled with tight supply, kept inventory falling and in turn pushed up spot premiums. As of Thursday, high-quality copper was quoted at 200 yuan/mt, up 80 yuan/mt from last Thursday; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 110 yuan/mt, up 80 yuan/mt WoW; SX-EW copper was quoted at 50 yuan/mt, up 90 yuan/mt WoW. As of Thursday, the price spread in standard-quality copper premiums between Shanghai and Guangdong stood at Guangdong being 190 yuan/mt higher. As the spread continued to widen, there was temporarily no cross-region cargo transfer this week, and attention should be paid to whether such transfers will emerge next week. According to SMM statistics, as of Thursday, total inventory in Guangdong warehouses was 45,500 mt, down 16,100 mt from last Thursday and down 52,200 mt from the year’s high, while warrants totaled 26,000 mt, down 9,600 mt from last Thursday. Specifically, warehouse arrivals this week were 8,200 mt/week, down 800 mt/week WoW and far below the annual average level of 14,000 mt/week. Affected by maintenance at nearby smelters, arrivals of domestic copper remained limited, and replenishment from imported copper was also scarce. Warehouse withdrawals were 24,000 mt/week, down 5,700 mt/week WoW, but still far above the annual average level of 14,200 mt/week. Although warehouse withdrawals declined slightly from last week, they remained above the average level, mainly due to robust downstream consumption, which kept warehouse withdrawals high. Looking ahead to next week, with a nearby smelter still under maintenance and arrivals of imported copper also limited, supply is expected to remain tight next week. On the demand side, it is understood that most copper rod enterprises are still operating at full capacity and said this can continue until mid-April. Therefore, demand is expected to continue exceeding supply next week, inventory will keep falling, and spot premiums are expected to continue rising. (The above information is based on market collection and the comprehensive assessment of the SMM research team. The information provided in this article is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions prudently and should not use this as a substitute for their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.)

Researchers at Northeastern University have introduced a new technique that can double the efficiency of rare earth element extraction. The study reveals a method for recovering rare earth elements from coal tailings, waste materials left after mining, using chemical treatment combined with a specially designed microwave reactor for precise temperature control. This approach achieves extraction rates two to three times higher than previous methods.

[Grain-Oriented Silicon Steel Prices to Remain Stable Next Week, With Continued Divergence Between High-End and Low-End Prices] This week, the cold-rolled grain-oriented silicon steel market remained stable overall, with mediocre transaction performance and a continued divergence between high-grade and low-grade products. Market feedback indicated that ferrous metals futures continued to weaken this week, weighing somewhat on market sentiment, but spot grain-oriented silicon steel prices as a whole remained firm and stable. In April, ordering costs at top-tier enterprises remained steady and were not raised, while traders maintained a relatively rational ordering stance, with no obvious wait-and-see or cautious sentiment.

SMM Nickel News, April 2: Macro and market news: (1) On the evening of April 1 local time, Trump delivered a speech, claiming on his own that the military campaign against Iran had achieved a “rapid, decisive, and overwhelming victory.” The US’ core strategic objectives in the military campaign against Iran were “close to completion.” Trump also said that stronger firepower strikes against Iran would be carried out in the coming weeks. (2) US ADP employment increased by 62,000 in March, above market expectations of 40,000 and broadly flat from 63,000 in the previous month, indicating steady growth in US private-sector employment in March. Spot market: On April 2, the SMM price of #1 refined nickel fell by 1,650 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 3,650 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; China’s mainstream electrodeposited nickel brands were at -600-400 yuan/mt. Futures market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2605) fluctuated lower and closed the morning session at 133,870 yuan/mt today, down 0.87%. In the short term, tighter Indonesian policies and cost support have built a solid bottom for nickel prices, but high inventory and weak end-use demand are capping upside room. The core trading range of the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to be 133,000-143,000 yuan/mt.

【SMM Steel】Mobarakeh Steel Co. said its facility sustained "another heavy attack" on Mar 31, the second since Feb 28. Affiliate Sefid Dasht Steel was also damaged. No precise production status was given. Sefid Dasht has 800,000 t/y capacity and supplies sponge iron to Mobarakeh. Before the attack, Iran expected the plants to resume operations soon.

[China’s Aluminum Ingot Inventory Continues to Build Up, Aluminum Prices Remain in a High-Level Consolidation Pattern ]Overall, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East remained the core factor affecting the global aluminum market. A series of production cuts and damage incidents at Middle Eastern aluminum plants is expected to provide strong upward momentum for aluminum prices in and outside China, coupled with support from expectations of a gradual release of peak-season demand in China. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to remain in a high-level consolidation pattern.