SMM May 16 News: Metals market: Overnight, metals across both domestic and overseas markets fell collectively, with most declining over 1%. LME tin led the decline with a 4.03% drop, LME copper fell 3.15%, LME aluminum and SHFE tin dropped over 2% (LME aluminum down 2.36%, SHFE tin down 2.84%). LME lead, LME zinc, LME nickel, SHFE copper, and SHFE nickel all fell over 1% (LME lead down 1.39%, LME zinc down 1.35%, LME nickel down 1.9%, SHFE copper down 1.29%, SHFE nickel down 1.3%). SHFE lead and SHFE zinc fell less than 1% (SHFE lead down 0.6%, SHFE zinc down 0.44%). The alumina front-month contract fell 1.19%, and the casting aluminum front-month contract fell 0.99%. Overnight, ferrous metals generally declined. Stainless steel fell 0.94%, and iron ore fell 0.8%. Hot-rolled coil and rebar dropped over 0.6% (hot-rolled coil down 0.63%, rebar down 0.62%). Coking coal and coke: coking coal fell 0.49%, coke fell 1.32%. Overnight, precious metals: COMEX gold fell 3.02% overnight, down 3.96% on the week; COMEX silver plunged 10.59%, down 5.65% on the week. In China, SHFE gold fell 1.13%, down 3.37% on the week; SHFE silver fell 6.79%, down 3.26% on the week. This was mainly pressured by rising US Treasury yields and a strengthening US dollar index, while the escalating US-Iran conflict intensified inflation concerns, further reinforcing market expectations of interest rate hikes. As of 8:24 AM on May 16, overnight closing prices: Macro front Wang Yi briefed the media on the China-US summit and the consensus reached. Wang Yi stated that the two heads of state interacted for nearly 9 hours and agreed that building a "China-US constructive strategic and stable relationship" was the most important political consensus. At the invitation of President Trump, President Xi Jinping will pay a state visit to the US this autumn. The economic and trade teams of both countries reached overall balanced and positive outcomes, including continuing to implement all consensus from previous negotiations, agreeing to establish a Trade Council and an Investment Council, addressing each other's concerns on agricultural product market access, and promoting the expansion of two-way trade under a reciprocal tariff reduction framework. China: The Ministry of Foreign Affairs provided consolidated responses on China-US economic and trade issues including semiconductors, rare earths, Boeing, and oil purchases. On May 15, Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Guo Jiakun hosted a regular press conference, providing consolidated responses on China-US economic and trade issues. Regarding rare earth supply, China is committed to maintaining the stability of global supply chains. Regarding purchases of US oil and Boeing aircraft, China expressed willingness to jointly safeguard energy security and supply chain stability, emphasizing the mutually beneficial nature of China-US economic and trade relations. Qiushi Journal published an important article by General Secretary Xi Jinping titled "Making the Real Economy Stronger, Better, and Bigger." The article pointed out that manufacturing is the foundation of the real economy, and that high-quality development of manufacturing should be given a more prominent position, with unwavering commitment to building a manufacturing powerhouse. It called for implementing industrial foundation re-engineering projects and major technical equipment breakthrough projects, supporting the development of specialized, refined, distinctive, and innovative enterprises, and promoting high-end, intelligent, and green development of manufacturing. It also called for promoting the integrated cluster development of strategic emerging industries, and building a batch of new growth engines in areas such as next-generation information technology, artificial intelligence, biotechnology, new energy, new materials, high-end equipment, and green environmental protection. US dollar: As of overnight close, the US dollar index rose 0.41% to 99.28, up 1.45% on the week. Rising energy prices and prolonged shipping disruptions intensified inflationary pressures, pushing up market expectations that the US Fed will raise interest rates this year. US interest rate futures prices fell sharply on Friday, reflecting growing conviction among bond market investors that elevated inflation will force the US Fed to raise interest rates later this year or in early 2027. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market now prices in approximately a 60% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the January FOMC meeting, with a 50% probability of a rate hike in December. US April retail sales grew further, but part of the increase may have come from rising inflation, as the Iran conflict pushed up energy and other commodity prices. Data released Thursday showed April retail sales rose 0.5%, in line with market expectations, while the March increase was revised down to 1.6%. The Iran conflict is driving up inflation; US Energy Information Administration data showed gasoline prices rose 12.3% in April. Despite surging oil prices, spending has not yet noticeably shifted away from other areas, thanks to larger tax refund amounts this year. IRS data showed that as of April 25, the average refund increased by $323 compared to the same period in 2025. However, this support is fading. Economists at PNC Financial Services Group stated, based on internal data analysis, that "consumers are spending their tax refunds faster than last year, especially among lower-income households," adding that "the amount of refund money being used to pay off credit card and other debts is also declining." (Jin10 Data APP) The Fed Board of Governors said in a statement on Friday that it had appointed Jerome Powell as chair pro tempore until his successor Kevin Warsh is officially sworn in. The US Fed stated: "This interim step of appointing the current chair as chair pro tempore is consistent with the practice followed during previous chair transitions." In response, Fed Governors Bowman and Milan stated that they did not support the interim appointment. On May 15, Powell's term as Fed Chairman expired. (Wallstreetcn) Analysts at BofA Global Research: If strong global economic growth prevents the US Fed from cutting interest rates, emerging markets could perform well. However, under scenarios of asymmetric growth (favoring the US) or a global stagflation shock, emerging markets would be more vulnerable. On the currency front, even though the election trigger is still months away, commodity outlook and monetary policy should continue to provide support for the Brazilian real. (Wallstreetcn) Data: Next week, China will release data including China's April total retail sales of consumer goods YoY, China's April industrial value added of enterprises above designated size YoY, China's 1-year Loan Prime Rate as of May 20, and China's April Swift RMB share in global payments. The US will release data including US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 16, US ADP employment weekly change for the week ending May 2, US April pending home sales index MoM, US April housing starts annualized, US April building permits, US May Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, US continuing jobless claims for the week ending May 9, US May S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary, US May S&P Global Services PMI preliminary, US May University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final, US May NAHB Housing Market Index, US May 1-year inflation expectations final, and US April Conference Board Leading Index MoM. The UK will release data including UK March 3-month ILO unemployment rate, UK April unemployment rate, UK April claimant count, UK April CPI MoM, UK April Retail Price Index MoM, UK May Manufacturing PMI preliminary, UK May Services PMI preliminary, UK May CBI Industrial Orders balance, UK May GfK Consumer Confidence Index, UK April public sector net borrowing, and UK April seasonally adjusted retail sales MoM. Germany will release data including Germany April PPI MoM, Germany May Manufacturing PMI preliminary, Germany June GfK Consumer Confidence Index, Germany Q1 non-seasonally adjusted GDP annual rate final, and Germany May IFO Business Climate Index. The Eurozone will release data including Eurozone March seasonally adjusted trade balance, Eurozone April CPI annual rate final, Eurozone April CPI MoM final, Eurozone May Manufacturing PMI preliminary, Eurozone March seasonally adjusted current account, and Eurozone May Consumer Confidence Index preliminary. Canada will release data including Canada April CPI MoM and Canada March retail sales MoM. Japan April core CPI annual rate, France May Manufacturing PMI preliminary, and Australia April seasonally adjusted unemployment rate will also be released. In addition, in China, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will release the monthly report on residential sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the national economic performance, and a new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open. At 2:00 AM on May 21, the US Fed will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting. The Reserve Bank of Australia will release the minutes of its May monetary policy meeting. ECB Chief Economist Lane and Fed Governor Waller will speak at an ECB research conference. 2026 FOMC voter and Philadelphia Fed President Paulsen will deliver a speech. Crude oil: As of overnight close, the US-Iran standoff over Strait of Hormuz passage showed no signs of a breakthrough, and both benchmarks rose. WTI rose 4.44%, and Brent rose 3.55%. On the week, WTI rose 10.73%, and Brent rose 8.08%. As the Iran conflict has cut off energy supplies from the Persian Gulf, US refiners are ramping up fuel production to fill supply gaps in gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. Analysts said this rapid growth trend is expected to push many refineries to their effective maximum capacity for at least the remainder of 2026. Reduced spare crude oil supply in Europe and other regions, combined with the difficulty of restoring post-conflict infrastructure in the Middle East in the short term, is driving up crude oil refining margins. Analysts said this rapid growth trend is expected to push many refineries to their effective maximum capacity for at least the remainder of 2026. US Energy Information Administration data showed that the so-called "capacity utilization rate" has climbed for three consecutive weeks and is now approaching 92%. In recent weeks, gasoline production hit a nine-month high, while jet fuel production reached its highest level since the summer of 2024. (Jin10 Data APP) US Energy Secretary Wright said at an event in Sabine Pass, Texas on Friday that the US will replenish every barrel of crude oil released from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). He said: "We are releasing oil now, and for every barrel released, we will put back at least 1.2 barrels into the reserve. Ultimately, we will make the reserve larger than when we started." (Jin10 Data APP) According to US media reports, the Trump administration plans to streamline the permitting process for oil projects within the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska to boost crude oil production in the US Arctic region. The Interior Department's move aims to establish a new permitting framework for the construction and operation of oil production facilities and related infrastructure. Under the plan, eligible projects could receive analysis and authorization more quickly, potentially within just 30 days. This initiative could benefit companies such as ConocoPhillips, Santos, and Repsol, which hold leases within the reserve, and accelerate government review of projects such as ConocoPhillips' Willow project, which had drawn strong opposition from climate activists. During the Iran conflict, with approximately 20% of global supply trapped in the Persian Gulf, the Trump administration has stepped up calls for US oil companies to increase production. (Jin10 Data APP) US import and export prices surged in April, posting the largest increase in over four years, driven by oil market pressures related to the Iran conflict, further signaling rising inflation in the world's largest economy. Data released Thursday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed the import price index rose 1.9% MoM, the largest increase since March 2022, with petroleum costs surging 19%. Export prices rose 3.3% MoM, also the largest increase in over four years. (Wallstreetcn)

According to Miningweekly, citing Bloomberg, a Cold War-era mine near the Slovak capital Bratislava is attracting attention from the EU. The project, known as Trojarova, is situated on a densely wooded hillside in what is known as the Little Carpathians in Slovakia, where Soviet engineers first discovered antimony-bearing ore layers in the 1980s. Its owner, Canada-based Military Metals Corp (MMC), is seen as an opportunity for Europe to secure a military metal. For critical minerals such as antimony, EU countries appear unable to provide funding and take action, leaving projects like Trojarova vulnerable to being snapped up by competitors. MMC has so far failed to secure an offtake agreement from the EU. As President Trump threatens to raise tariffs on Europe, the project illustrates the danger of Europe falling behind in the fierce competition among superpowers. As imports of critical minerals such as rare earths face restrictions, the US has been actively seeking partnerships with resource-rich countries and funding projects around the world to accelerate development, but Europe has lagged behind. "Member states remain reluctant to foot the bill for mining and processing projects outside their borders, even when geo-economic realities demand it," said Schulz Sabrina, Germany director of the European Initiative for Energy Security (EIES). "Financing remains the main obstacle." The 2023 European Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA) laid out the EU's strategy. The CRMA set targets that at least 10% of Europe's annual critical materials supply should come from domestic extraction and 40% from domestic processing. These targets compelled member states to take action, identify security gaps, and concentrate investment to ensure secure supplies of battery metals such as lithium. Since then, global competitors have pivoted to military resources such as antimony, gallium, and germanium, but Europe has not followed suit. Insiders believe this is because EU officials lack the authority to pursue policies similar to those of the US and lack the funding to invest. This has made it difficult for underfunded enterprises to launch minor metal projects, as they struggle to raise capital in private markets at the very least. With tight budgets across Europe, many EU member states are unknown on how to take action. In Germany, for example, the economics ministry, the chancellery, and the foreign ministry have yet to agree on how to address critical minerals risks. The result is a deadlock, with EU officials worried that member states fear missing out on opportunities. Last month, the EU reached an agreement with the US on policy coordination to secure critical minerals supply chains. For MMC, this was an important development that could lead to joint US-EU investment and offtake partnerships for Trojarova. On March 24, Hartmann Frank, a German foreign ministry official responsible for Asian affairs, said at an event in Berlin that Europe was not acting fast enough and "not doing enough." "We must implement a long-term strategy, keep the funds and capital in our hands, and invest in these critical minerals over the next decade," he said at a panel discussion hosted by the German Council on Foreign Relations. "Otherwise, we will not be able to break free from this dependency." The Trojarova project, acquired by MMC about two years ago, could be an opportunity. Antimony is a silvery-white metal commonly associated with gold, widely used in military applications such as ammunition, night-vision goggles, and infrared sensors, accounting for 15% of total demand. Other uses include flame retardants, nuclear energy, and renewable energy. "Antimony is a versatile minor metal," said Schulz. "Antimony supply is highly concentrated, and Europe is almost entirely dependent on imports." This is also why MMC has been pitching the Trojarova project to investors as a significant opportunity in Europe, capable of supplying antimony ingots directly to national defense clients. MMC CEO Eldridge Scott said smelters in Germany and Sweden could process ore from the project, helping Europe establish an entire antimony supply chain from mining to processing. The mine, located near the wine town of Pezinok in southwestern Slovakia, was first discovered and mined by the Soviets. Although the 1.7-kilometer-long mine was later abandoned, it remains one of Europe's most significant antimony deposits. MMC is too small to resume production at the mine on its own and needs to co-invest with partners and build a smelter. If production resumes within two to three years, the mine could produce 6,000 mt of antimony annually, meeting one-third of Europe's demand. However, the company, with a market capitalization of less than $30 million, needs substantial funding. In addition, critical minerals prices are prone to wild swings, and even in markets such as lithium, several major projects have stalled as miners seek government funding. No matter how high-quality this company's project may be, Europe still lacks the funding and determination to ensure the development of these resources. Germany's own 1 billion euro raw material fund has so far supported only two projects, creating more barriers for companies to qualify than it has removed. The European Commission and its member states have signed multiple memoranda of understanding with producing countries. For example, Spain reached an agreement with Brazil last month. However, US agreements with these countries are larger in funding scale and progressing faster. The US government's agreement with the EU reflects its so-called price floors to safeguard producers' operations. European countries have been hesitant, but sometimes have had no choice but to agree to US proposals. Meanwhile, the momentum for EU action has largely given way to other more pressing crises. In contrast, although the US government has recently been focused on conflicts such as the Iran war, the president's team of aides has been busy identifying mineral projects and bidding to secure them. A US enterprise has already approached MMC to request a field trip to the Trojarova project. Meanwhile, the US government's investment arm agreed last month to a $5 million deal to restart another shuttered antimony mine in North Macedonia. MMC president Hüser Thomas hopes Trojarova will not face a similar outcome. The German national, formerly a manager at Glencore, joined the company this year. "What we still lack is not plans, but enforcement," he said. "Europe's raw material strategy remains fragmented, slow, and often disconnected from industrial reality."

A Chinese energy and chemical firm plans to build a magnesium alloy project in Turkmenistan, leveraging local resources and Chinese technology. Meanwhile, Brazil sharply raised anti-dumping duties on Chinese magnesium ingots to $4.07/kg, effectively closing direct export channels.

[SMM Magnesium Express] Brazil has recently significantly increased the anti-dumping duty on magnesium ingots originating in China from US$1.18/kg to US$4.07/kg. This measure, which dates back to 2004, has undergone multiple sunset reviews. The current adjustment follows a review initiated at the request of Brazilian domestic enterprises and takes effect from the date of publication. Brazil's primary magnesium output is only ~22,000 t/yr, while import demand reaches 300,000–400,000 t/yr. However, China currently exports almost no magnesium ingots to Brazil. The move could divert other regional supplies into Brazil, indirectly impacting global trade flows of Chinese magnesium downstream and finished products.

[SMM Magnesium Survey: Chinese Magnesium Industry Expands into Turkmenistan, Brazil's Tariff Hike Blocks Exports to Brazil] A Chinese energy and chemical enterprise planned to build a magnesium alloy project in Turkmenistan, combining local raw materials with Chinese technology. Brazil significantly raised the anti-dumping duty on magnesium ingots from China to $4.07/kg, effectively closing the direct export channel.

[SMM Rare Earth News Flash] American Rare Earths (REA) completed a traditional IPO outside China on May 6, listing on the NYSE American exchange at an offering price of $19 per share for approximately 3.33 million shares, raising approximately $63.3 million and achieving a market capitalization target of $368 million. The company focuses on heavy rare earth projects essential for national defense and permanent magnets, including the Shilo project in Georgia, US, and the Alfa project in Brazil.

According to US Department of Commerce data, the United States imported 2.45 million net tons (nt) of steel in March 2026, a 5.3% increase from February. Finished steel imports surged by 15.4% month-on-month to 1.94 million nt, accounting for an estimated 22% of the domestic market share. Total imports for the first quarter of 2026 reached 7.07 million nt, up 2.7% compared to the same period in 2025. Significant increases were seen in imports of oil country tubular goods (+55%) and line pipe (+49%). The influx of finished products, particularly from South Korea and Brazil, increases competitive pressure on domestic US mills and may limit the upside for local spot prices despite seasonal demand recovery.

Brazil's Secretariat of Foreign Trade (SECEX) issued Circular No. 33, confirming preliminary dumping and injury findings regarding hot-rolled stainless steel imports from China, Indonesia, and India. The calculated dumping margins are 50.1% for China, 25.3% for Indonesia, and 17.9% for India. However, authorities have opted not to impose provisional duties at this stage, citing the complexity of the multi-origin investigation and the need for further review. The final determination, which affects HRC and sheets with thicknesses of 2mm to 50.8mm (including NCM 7219 and 7220 headings), is scheduled for release on November 25, 2026.

On May 11, 2026, iron ore futures rose first then retreated today. The most-traded contract I2609 closed at 822.5 yuan/mt, up 0.73% from the previous trading session. Port spot prices rose 3-5 yuan from the previous day. Traders quoted actively with strong willingness to transact; steel mills showed moderate inquiry willingness for procurement, with transactions mostly driven by rigid restocking demand; the overall spot transaction atmosphere remained subdued. According to the latest SMM survey data, global iron ore shipments totaled 29.3146 million mt last week, down 7.2 million mt WoW, a decline of approximately 20%. Shipments from both Australia and Brazil declined due to weather impacts, with Brazil's shipments seeing a larger drop. Combined with the previous week's shipment volumes, iron ore supply side may tighten in the short term if port pick-up volume remains at the same level. Currently, due to strong downstream demand, steel mill operating rates remained generally high, keeping rigid demand for iron ore elevated and providing relatively solid price support. Iron ore prices are expected to move sideways at elevated levels this week. However, given the cooling trend in spot transaction market activity and steel mills' low willingness to transact at high ore prices, subsequent blast furnace maintenance schedules need to be monitored to assess the trend.

Brazil’s iron ore exports reached 31.43 million metric tons (mt) in April 2026, a 23% increase compared to the 25.55 million mt exported in April 2025. Revenue from these exports rose to $2.32 billion. China remained the dominant destination, accounting for approximately 65% of the total volume as Chinese mills replenished port inventories. The significant year-on-year growth in shipments from major miners like Vale indicates a recovery in production stability. This surge in global supply, if sustained, may cap potential upside for iron ore prices, particularly as global steel demand outside of India remains fragmented.