Dalian iron ore futures rose in early trading and pulled back in the afternoon. The most-traded contract, I2605, finally closed at 824 yuan/mt, up 0.55% from the previous trading session. Spot prices rose by about 2-5 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders were relatively active in offering quotes, while steel mills made fewer inquiries and purchased cautiously, with overall transactions in the spot market remaining average. In terms of fundamental data, blast furnace maintenance intensity continued to pull back this week, with maintenance affecting hot metal production by 1.65 million mt, down 206,500 mt WoW. It was expected to decrease by a further 180,000 mt next week to 1.4684 million mt, indicating a gradual improvement on the demand side. In terms of supply, tight supply still persisted in the market, and there was no news of any significant adjustment, which remained supportive for iron ore in the short term. However, some funds, out of concern over downstream risks, tended to stay on the sidelines, and overall wait-and-see sentiment was strong. In summary, iron ore prices were expected to hover at highs in the short term.

The United Kingdom government officially launched a new national Steel Strategy on March 19, 2026, aimed at domesticating 50% of the nation's steel consumption, up from the current 30%. As part of this robust trade defense, the UK will reduce tariff-free import quotas by 60% effective July 1, 2026, while raising the maximum Most Favored Nation (MFN) tariff to 50% for imports exceeding these limits. This move is designed to shield the domestic industry—currently transitioning from traditional blast furnaces to electric arc furnaces (EAF)—from global overcapacity and extreme subsidies.

Dalian iron ore fluctuated upward today. The most-traded contract, I2605, finally closed at 819 yuan/mt, up 0.92% from the previous trading session. Spot prices rose by about 1-2 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders were moderately active in offering quotations, while steel mills purchased cautiously. At present, transactions in the spot market remained sluggish. In terms of fundamental data, the SMM survey showed that global iron ore shipments reached 33.63 million mt last week, up 5.2% WoW; meanwhile, total iron ore arrivals at Chinese ports were 27.14 million mt, down 3.5% WoW. Combined with the narrower inventory buildup in port inventory in the previous period and the increase in port pick-up volume, the oversupplied situation on the iron ore supply side improved in the short term. At the same time, demand gradually rebounded as blast furnaces resumed production one after another, and iron ore fundamentals gradually turned bullish. On the news front, as long-term contract negotiations remained deadlocked, the unilateral trend in iron ore had yet to become clear, so most funds chose to stay on the sidelines, though overall bullish sentiment remained relatively strong. Therefore, overall, iron ore prices were expected to fluctuate at highs this week.

[SMM Daily Brief Review on Coking Coal and Coke] In terms of supply, most coke producers still faced slight losses, suppressing their willingness to increase production, and overall supply remained temporarily stable. Meanwhile, shipments from coke producers improved, and coke inventory continued to destock. Demand side, blast furnaces at steel mills resumed operations and production, and hot metal production is expected to increase. In addition, steel mill profits improved somewhat, and finished steel shipments recovered, boosting steel mills' production enthusiasm. However, downstream buyers mostly maintained just-in-time procurement and lacked willingness to purchase for restocking. In summary, the supply-demand imbalance in the coke fundamentals still existed, and the coke market may remain stable next week.

[SMM Daily Brief Review of Coking Coal and Coke] In terms of supply, after the Two Sessions concluded, operating rates at coke producers increased somewhat, and shipments improved. Inventory pressure eased for most coke producers, with supply remaining stable while increasing slightly. Demand side, blast furnaces in Hebei resumed operations and production, and hot metal production is expected to increase. In addition, steel mill profits improved somewhat, and finished steel shipments picked up, boosting steel mills' production enthusiasm and strengthening their purchase willingness for coke. Overall, coke fundamentals improved, but the market remains in a wait-and-see mode, and the coke market may remain stable in the short term.

[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary: Polysilicon Prices Remained Slightly Weak, While Module Prices Were Overtly Stable but Softened in Practice] Over the weekend, N-type recharging polysilicon was quoted at 39.5-47.5 yuan/kg, the N-type polysilicon price index stood at 43.64 yuan/kg, and granular polysilicon was quoted at 40-43 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices still appeared slightly weak over the weekend, with reports of some transactions concluded at low prices. Bearish sentiment among upstream and downstream enterprises persisted, and prices were expected to remain weak.

This week, ferrous metals fluctuated at highs, with raw material ore and coking products outperforming steel. Against the backdrop of the escalating conflict in the Middle East, ore and coking products held up well, supported by higher shipping costs and transmission from coal and coke as energy substitutes. In the second half of the week, supply and demand data for hot-rolled coil and rebar were released. The increase in rebar inventory slowed markedly; however, hot-rolled coil demand was lower than the same period last year, and the pace of post-holiday recovery was relatively slow, leaving steel as a whole with limited upward momentum, while futures retreated after rapid rise. In the spot market, trading in the Chinese market was average this week.....

This week, total rebar inventory stood at 8.3525 million mt, up 57,800 mt WoW, or 0.7% (previously +3.46%). Compared with the same period of the lunar calendar last year, it increased by 281,200 mt, or 3.48% (previously +4.58%).

[SMM Daily Brief Review of Coking Coal and Coke] In terms of supply, coking costs at coke producers increased, profit per mt of coke narrowed somewhat, and coke producer inventories still needed to be drawn down, weighing on their production enthusiasm. However, downstream demand improved somewhat, and coke producers were actively making shipments. Demand side, the country's important meetings have concluded, and blast furnaces previously subject to production restrictions resumed production one after another, increasing rigid demand for coke. However, uncertainty still remained in finished steel consumption, and most steel mills remained cautious in their coke procurement. In summary, the supply-demand imbalance in the coke market eased somewhat, and cost support strengthened. In the short term, the coke market may temporarily remain stable.

【SMM Steel】Facing the 50% US steel tariff, Algoma Steel is adjusting operations. It will close its blast furnaces and coke ovens ahead of schedule, pivot to the Canadian market, and secure funds for the transition. Focus will be on rolled, heat-treated plate, and some coil products for domestic use. Over 60% of its revenue once came from US clients. In 2025, direct tariffs total C$225m, with US shipments at ~51% of total.