【SMM Nickel Flash News】Given the significant variance in byproduct quality across nickel ore deposits, establishing a unified HPM for each grade remains a challenge. Consequently, SMM has developed multiple scenarios for both saprolite and limonite to serve as a benchmark for the new HPM formula and to provide a comparative analysis against SMM’s proprietary pricing

In recent years, spot premiums in the European zinc market have shown significantly greater volatility amid fluctuations in energy costs, regional supply-demand mismatches, frequent temporary smelter curtailments, and shifts in inter-regional trade flows. As one of Europe’s most important hubs for non-ferrous metals logistics, warehousing and spot trade, Rotterdam has long played a key role in the distribution, storage and circulation of imported refined zinc in Europe......

[SMM Magnesium Weekly Review: Magnesium Market Pulled Back on Weakness, Export Prices Rose Against the Trend on Policy Impact] The magnesium market was overall in the doldrums this week. Magnesium ingot quotes in major producing areas fell 350 yuan/mt WoW to 17,000-17,150 yuan/mt. Downstream buyers showed strong wait-and-see sentiment, and panic selling accelerated the price decline, with the market entering a phase of rational pullback. Export side, affected by tightened customs supervision on non-compliant exports and dual-use items, FOB quotes rose against the trend by $50/mt on Thursday to $2,500-2,600/mt, with domestic and overseas market trends clearly diverging. Magnesium powder and magnesium alloy prices pulled back along with raw materials, while processing fees remained stable, and the market overall showed strong supply and weak demand. Magnesium prices are expected to see gradually narrowing declines in the short term, with subsequent attention needed on changes in export policies and downstream purchase willingness.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] Indonesia Nickel Ore HMP Price Adjustment Drives Stainless Steel Futures and Spot Prices Higher On April 15, SMM reported that SS futures continued their strong upward trend. The market was further influenced by the adjustment of Indonesia's nickel ore HMP benchmark price, with SHFE nickel and stainless steel futures strengthening further. As of the midday close, the most-traded SS contract was quoted at 14,850 yuan/mt. Spot market side, driven by the dual factors of SS futures successively breaking through yearly highs and rising NPI costs following the adjustment of Indonesia's nickel ore HMP benchmark price, cost support for stainless steel strengthened significantly. Market sentiment returned to an actively bullish stance, and intraday quotes were raised. However, against the backdrop of rapidly rising prices, downstream end-users remained cautious. Although inquiries were active intraday and cargo pick-up for earlier orders was solid, actual transactions remained cautious. The most-traded SS futures contract strengthened. At 10:15 AM, SS2605 was quoted at 14,810 yuan/mt, up 220 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi ranged from 10-210 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi rose by 50 yuan/mt; for cold-rolled untrimmed 304/2B coils, the average price in Wuxi rose by 200 yuan/mt and in Foshan by 100 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in Wuxi rose by 200 yuan/mt; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils in Wuxi rose by 150 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan remained stable. The current stainless steel market is in the traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April." In the short term, macro...

According to SMM, Indonesian stainless steel prices broadly increased by $30/mt today, driven by changes in upstream raw material policy. The latest quotations show that SMM Indonesia 304/2B stainless steel is now assessed at $2,112.5/mt, while SMM Indonesia 304/NO.1 stands at $2,002.5/mt. The main driver behind this market move is that Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) officially raised the nickel ore benchmark price (HPM) starting today, April 15, and has fully implemented a new pricing formula. The rollout of the new pricing mechanism has directly lifted procurement costs for nickel smelters, prompting major stainless steel mills to raise their offers amid sharply higher cost pressure.

SMM Nickel News, April 15: Macro and Market News: (1) The US March PPI annual rate came in at 4%, below market expectations of 4.6%. The confirmation hearing for Fed Chairman nominee Kevin Warsh is scheduled for April 21. (2) Trump said talks with Iran would "possibly within the next two days" be held in Pakistan. Sources said Pakistan called for a 45-day extension of the US-Iran ceasefire, and the US and Iran agreed to continue negotiations, though the time and location remain undetermined. Spot Market: On April 15, SMM #1 refined nickel prices rose 3,800 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums: Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 2,750 yuan/mt, down 150 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel brands ranged from -500-600 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2605 contract continued its sharp upward trend during the morning session, closing at 141,500 yuan/mt, up 2.58%. Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) officially confirmed the implementation of the revised nickel ore benchmark price (HPM) calculation formula starting April 15, 2026, which is expected to significantly raise the floor support for nickel prices, driving a sharp rally in nickel prices. In the short term, nickel prices are expected to hold up well on sentiment following the release of the new pricing formula. Going forward, attention should be paid to the actual cost increase after the implementation of Indonesia's new HPM formula.

Jakarta, April 14, 2026 – Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) officially issued Ministerial Decree No. 144.K/MB.01/MEM.B/2026, revising the calculation formula for the Nickel Ore Benchmark Price (HPM). The regulation will officially take effect on April 15, 2026, marking a significant shift in resource valuation policy for Indonesia, the world's largest nickel producer. The new decree revised the previous Decree No. 268.K/2025, with core changes aimed at reflecting the true commercial value of nickel ore and its associated minerals: 1. Adjustment of the Correction Factor (CF): · The correction factor for 1.6% grade nickel ore was significantly raised from the original 17% to 30%. · For every 0.1% increase or decrease in nickel grade, the correction factor will be adjusted inversely by 1%. 2. Inclusion of Associated Mineral Value: · The new formula for the first time explicitly incorporated associated minerals such as cobalt (Co), iron (Fe), and chromium (Cr) into the HPM calculation. · Cobalt: Included when content >= 0.05%, with the correction factor (CF) set at 30%. · Iron: Included when content <= 35%, with the correction factor (CF) set at 30%. · Chromium: The correction factor set at 10%. 3. New Pricing Formula: HPM Nickel Ore = [(Nickel HMA * %Ni * CF) + (Cobalt HMA * %Co * CF) + (Iron HMA * %Fe * CF * 100) + (Chromium HMA * %Cr * CF * 100)] * (1-MC) (Note: MC refers to moisture content) Assumptions: · Average grade: moisture content 35-40%, cobalt content 0.07% (HPAL ore), iron content 25% (saprolite ore), chromium content 3%. Based on SMM's estimates, HPM prices have the most obvious room for upward movement. · Here, HPAL ore refers to nickel ore with a grade of 1.3% and below, while saprolite ore refers to nickel ore with a grade above 1.3%.Since HPAL ore has a higher cobalt grade and iron content generally above 35%, the HPM formula for HPAL ore here only considers nickel, cobalt, and chromium, with iron not priced in. · Since saprolite ore has a lower cobalt grade and iron content generally below 35%, the HPM formula for saprolite ore here only considers nickel, iron, and chromium, with cobalt not priced in. Note: This is only a scenario assumption based on publicly available information and does not constitute actual market action advice. Please refer to actual conditions. Driven by the dynamic adjustment mechanism of the benchmark price, the nickel ore benchmark price center shifted significantly upward, providing a higher pricing anchor for mine-side sales. Overall, the CF (adjustment coefficient) for 1.6% grade nickel ore increased from 17% to 30%, driving a significant rise in the benchmark price, reflecting a policy and market reassessment of the value of medium-to-high-grade ore. As the CF increased, the linkage between ore prices and nickel content further strengthened, and price elasticity amplified accordingly. On the other hand, under the current pricing system, by-product value has been fully incorporated into consideration. In particular, the cobalt pricing mechanism provided significant support for low-grade ore (such as limonite). Benefiting from the increase in cobalt prices and its recovery value, the economics of limonite improved notably, and its price performance showed a more prominent upward trend compared to the past, gradually changing the market's traditional perception of it as a "low-value resource." Based on SMM prices, Indonesia's local laterite nickel ore at 1.2% grade (delivered price) averaged $30.5/wmt, far below the new HPM benchmark price of $40.18/wmt. The CIF price of 1.2% grade HPAL nickel ore may subsequently rise to $48.18 (40.18+8)/wmt. Indonesia's local laterite nickel ore at 1.5% grade (delivered price) averaged $70.7/wmt, above the new HPM benchmark price of $57.13/wmt, so theoretically absolute price fluctuations would not be as drastic. Assuming the tax cost increase driven by the HPM benchmark price rise is fully passed through to downstream, the absolute price of saprolite nickel ore may rise to $72.47/wmt after the new HPM benchmark price takes effect. **MHP** According to SMM estimates, taking 1.2% grade nickel ore as an example, based on the benchmark price as of April 1, the new nickel ore HPM is expected to be raised to $40.18/wmt, compared with the previous nickel ore HPM of $16/wmt. Currently, SMM's latest Indonesia's local laterite nickel ore 1.2% (port arrival price) average price is $30.5/wmt, lower than the new HPM. Assuming the HPM benchmark price serves as the minimum price floor for mines, after factoring in freight costs, the selling price of 1.2% grade HPAL ore after April 15 would be $48.18/wmt. Based on this estimate, the cost of producing MHP from externally purchased HPAL ore (after cobalt credit) will rise to approximately $17,760/mt Ni, an increase of approximately $2,600/mt Ni. **NPI** According to SMM estimates, based on the benchmark price as of April 1, taking 1.5% grade nickel ore price as an example, the nickel ore HPM price under the old formula was $26.66/wmt, while the nickel ore HPM price calculated under the new formula is $57.13/wmt, still lower than the current 1.5% Indonesia's local port arrivals under domestic trade price of $70.7/wmt. Assuming the tax cost increase resulting from the HPM price hike is fully passed through to downstream, the absolute nickel ore price is forecast to rise to approximately $72.47/wmt after the new policy is implemented. Based on this estimate, this adjustment will push the full cost of NPI up to $15,741.51/mt Ni, an increase of $570.48/mt Ni from the current level, representing a rise of approximately 3.76%, which is expected to provide further upward support for NPI prices. **Refined Nickel** On the basis of the above-mentioned increases in MHP and high-grade nickel matte raw material costs, the cost of producing refined nickel from integrated high-grade nickel matte is estimated at approximately $21,773/mt Ni, an increase of $622/mt Ni compared with before the HPM formula adjustment; the cost of producing refined nickel from integrated MHP (after cobalt credit) is estimated at approximately $20,560/mt Ni, an increase of $2,652/mt Ni compared with before the HPM formula adjustment. In addition, based on the LME spot settlement price on April 14 and the nickel intermediate product transaction coefficients (91.5% for MHP and 92.5% for high-grade nickel matte), the spot cost of producing refined nickel from externally purchased high-grade nickel matte is $18,705/mt Ni, and the spot cost of producing refined nickel from externally purchased MHP is $19,378/mt Ni. Both costs are higher than the current LME nickel prices, indicating relatively strong cost support. In summary, Indonesia's ESDM reform of the HPM benchmark price formula represents a systematic restructuring of the pricing system, upgrading nickel ore pricing from "single nickel element pricing" to "nickel + cobalt + iron + chromium multi-element comprehensive pricing," reshaping the nickel ore cost basis from multiple dimensions. In the short term, the policy landing beyond expectations has already driven nickel prices to rise significantly, with market sentiment leaning bullish; however, medium and long-term impacts depend on cost pass-through efficiency, the pace of high inventory digestion, and downstream demand absorption capacity. Going forward, close attention is still needed on the actual implementation by Indonesian mine enterprises, smelter procurement price negotiation outcomes, and the substantive magnitude of price increases for intermediate products such as MHP and NPI. Risk warning: According to ESDM Ministerial Decree NO.144.K/MB.01/MEM.B/2026, the benchmark ore price (HPM) is the minimum selling price for metal mineral sales. If metal minerals are sold below the HPM price, the HPM must still be used as the basis for calculating tax obligations and as the benchmark price for levying production fees (royalties). Therefore, the above costs are calculated based on the assumption that the wet-process ore selling price is no lower than the new HPM benchmark price. The resulting integrated MHP (after cobalt credit) production cost of refined nickel is relatively high. However, the actual selling price of nickel ore will need to be negotiated between mines and smelters, and there is a possibility that the final transaction price may be lower than the new HPM benchmark price.

Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) has officially issued Ministerial Decree No. 144.K/MB.01/MEM.B/2026, revising the calculation formula for the nickel ore benchmark price (HPM). Following the update, a major Indonesian stainless mill suspended offers today, with the market expecting higher stainless prices.

【SMM Steel】The GSCC initiated a comprehensive evaluation of its Steel Climate Standard to align with current science and industry practices. The two-year process examines emissions measurement, certification criteria, and decarbonization frameworks. Since adoption in Aug 2023, members have eliminated nearly 3 Mt CO₂e via verified reductions. Stakeholders can submit feedback from Apr 9 to Jun 23, 2026. The review ensures the framework remains a relevant benchmark for the global steel value chain. Further engagement opportunities will occur.

The 2026 revision improves transparency through moisture and silica adjustments, but Indonesia’s bauxite HPM remains structurally above domestic transaction levels, reinforcing its role as a fiscal reference price rather than a true market-clearing mechanism.