SMM August 24: Metal Market: As of the noon close, base metals rose broadly on the domestic market. SHFE copper gained 0.44%, SHFE aluminum added 0.89%. SHFE lead climbed 0.4%. SHFE zinc rose 1.19%. SHFE tin dropped 0.78%. SHFE nickel gained 0.8%. Additionally, the most-traded cast aluminum futures gained 0.26%, and the most-traded alumina contract rose 0.56%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract added 2.9%. The most-traded silicon metal contract fell 0.46%. The most-traded polysilicon futures dropped 1.73%. Ferrous metals all rose. Iron ore gained 1.77%, rebar added 1.62%, hot-rolled coil rose 1.67%. Stainless steel rose 0.39%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract gained 2.93%, while the most-traded coke contract rose 3.87%. For overseas base metals, as of 11:40, LME metals mostly fell. LME copper edged down 0.14%, LME aluminum edged up 0.06%. LME lead was unchanged at $1,901/mt, LME zinc shed 0.24%. LME tin fell 1.04%. LME nickel dropped 0.32%. Precious metals: as of 11:40, COMEX gold added 0.46%, hitting a fresh high since May at $4,713.8/oz. COMEX silver gained 1.06%. On the domestic market, SHFE gold gained 2.79%, hitting a fresh high since May at 1,008.78 yuan/g; the most-traded SHFE silver contract added 1.31%. In addition, as of the noon close, the most-traded platinum futures rose 1.37%, and the most-traded palladium futures gained 0.61%. As of the noon close, the most-traded European line container shipping contract rose 7.16% to 2,020.5 points. As of 11:40 on August 24, some futures midday quotes: Spot Market & Fundamentals Copper: Today, spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong against the front-month contract: high-quality copper reported a premium of 150 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper reported a premium of 80 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper reported a premium of 10 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 107,840 yuan/mt, up 240 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 107,735 yuan/mt, up 240 yuan/mt from the previous trading day... Macro Front China side: [Preview: State Council Information Office to hold press conference on fully implementing the 15th Five-Year Plan and accelerating new-type industrialization] The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the theme "Getting off to a Good Start for the 15th Five-Year Plan" at 10:00 am on August 26, 2026 (Wednesday). Xin Guobin, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, will introduce efforts to fully implement the 15th Five-Year Plan and accelerate new-type industrialization, and answer questions from reporters. [SASAC: Accelerate the Cultivation of Talent in Controlled Nuclear Fusion, Deepen Integration of "Fusion + AI" Innovation] A message from the website of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) of the State Council stated that on August 19, the Central Enterprise Future Energy Talent Training Class, hosted by SASAC, commenced via a combination of online and offline modes. Tan Zuojun, member of the SASAC Party Committee and Deputy Director, attended the opening ceremony and delivered a speech. Tan emphasized focusing on the future energy field of controlled nuclear fusion, relying on the controlled nuclear fusion innovation consortium, to promote coordinated research in the industry chain, and accelerate the cultivation of talent in controlled nuclear fusion. He stressed the need to deeply study and grasp the development laws of controlled nuclear fusion, identify the main technical directions, focus on driving original innovation and fundamental breakthroughs, deeply advance the integrated innovation of "fusion + AI," and gather talent from both domestic and overseas sources, as well as from industry, academia, and research, to tackle challenges together. (Jin Shi Data APP) [PBOC's Reverse Repo Operations Achieve Net Injection of 340 Billion Yuan Today] The PBOC conducted a 7-day reverse repo operation of 340 billion yuan today. As there were no reverse repos maturing today, it achieved a net injection of 340 billion yuan. (Jin Shi Data APP) On the US dollar front: As of 11:40, the US dollar index rose 0.01% to 98.83. The market is focused on key US inflation data and the speech by Fed Chairman Walsh later this week. This week, bond investors will closely monitor Fed Chairman Walsh's speech at Jackson Hole. The market is seeking his response to persistent inflation and fiscal concerns, and long-term bonds may face further selling pressure. Since taking office in May, Walsh has rarely provided forward policy guidance. His remarks after the last monetary policy meeting triggered a massive sell-off in the bond market, highlighting the market's high sensitivity to his Friday speech. Molly Brooks, US rate strategist at TD Securities, said: "I think if he continues to provide no more information, the market will be disappointed, which could further exacerbate the recent sell-off in long-term bonds." Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide Mutual Insurance, said that the factors persistently weighing on the bond market remain, including fiscal concerns, inflation, and uncertainty over the Fed's response. Dhiraj Narula, rate strategist at HSBC, said this presents an opportunity for Walsh to reassure investors by clarifying his policy outlook. He said: "In our view, if Chairman Walsh can make some judgments on potential inflationary pressures, it may be enough to reduce the term premium related to uncertainty." According to the CME FedWatch, the probability of the US Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 59.0%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 41.0%. The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in October is 46.6%, with a 44.8% chance of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike and an 8.6% chance of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike. US Fed's Kashkari downplayed market concerns over rising US Treasury yields, saying the market is functioning well and the recent surge is unlikely to affect monetary policy discussions. Kashkari said on Sunday, "There are signs that the US Treasury market is functioning normally, with trading proceeding as usual and ample market liquidity, so we can use the federal funds rate as the main policy tool to lower inflation." Last week, US Treasury yields rose across all maturities, with the benchmark 10-year yield closing at around 4.73%. The 30-year yield remained near its highest level since 2007. Kashkari said that while current Treasury yields are high relative to recent historical levels, yields in the 1990s were much higher. "We need more data, but I don't want to prejudge the outcome of the next meeting," he said, "However, I don't expect inflation to pull back to the target level in the short term." (Jin10 Data APP) Data: China's July year-to-date installed power generation capacity and the year-to-date installed power generation capacity year-on-year rate for July will be released today. In addition, pay attention to: Pinduoduo earnings conference call. Crude oil: As of 11:40, oil prices in both markets fell, with US crude down 1.48% and Brent crude down 1.35%. After US President Trump announced an "unprecedented" economic war against Iran, US Treasury Secretary Bessent confirmed that the specific actions of the "unprecedented economic isolation" measures against Iran will be officially announced on the 24th. Iran, on the 23rd, played its "oil export countermeasure card": if the US wages an economic war, there will be no oil exports from the Strait of Hormuz and even the Persian Gulf region. Currently, there are less than 24 hours before the US releases the details of the sanctions. Public opinion generally believes that this is a reluctant move by the US under the current reality of prolonged conflict and fruitless negotiations between the US and Iran. Although the specific measures have not yet been announced, some analysts believe that this action may ultimately lead to a "lose-lose" situation. (Jin10 Data APP) According to the Financial Times, due to tight oil supply caused by the Gulf conflict, India's oil purchases from Russia hit a record high, making it more difficult for New Delhi to reduce its dependence on Moscow. Sumit Ritolia, chief analyst at trade consultancy Kpler, said that in June and July, New Delhi imported over 2.6 million barrels per day of Russian oil, up from a low of 1 million barrels per day in February, accounting for more than half of the country's crude oil imports. With a peace deal between Washington and Tehran still far off, a small volume of oil outflows from the Strait of Hormuz has forced India to turn back to Russia to meet its oil needs. To curb the impact of the Gulf crisis, Trump approved partial waivers allowing India to purchase Russian oil. With Middle East gas supplies disrupted by war, India, like many other Asian countries, has also turned back to coal-fired power generation. Over the decade since March 2015, India's annual coal production surged 70% to 1.04 billion mt. Separately, according to foreign media, ExxonMobil said in a statement that a fire in the laundry room of an offshore vessel in Guyana temporarily forced the company to halt operations at the facility. The statement said the fire on the Liza Unity floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) vessel was quickly extinguished. A spokesperson for ExxonMobil in Guyana said crude unloading operations were affected due to the temporary shutdown. The Liza field is key to transforming Guyana into a major crude oil producer, and the Liza Unity FPSO produces about 250,000 barrels of the more than 900,000 barrels per day of crude oil from the Stabroek block. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

[8.24 Morning Meeting Summary] The Trump administration announced a new round of "the toughest ever" economic sanctions against Iran and threatened economic action against any country with commercial ties to Iran. The most-traded SHFE nickel 2609 contract plunged in the night session before rebounding slightly in the morning session, closing at 128,860 yuan/mt as of the morning session close, down 0.67%. Currently, the US is expanding the scale of treasury repurchase, with the macro environment favoring base metals. However, LME and China inventories continued to accumulate, with visible inventory at historical highs. In the short term, the trading range for the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is 125,000-130,000 yuan/mt.

[SMM Tin Morning News: SHFE tin churns at high levels of 428,000, awaiting the tone set by 8/26 PCE and Jackson Hole]

SMM August 24 News: Metal market: Last Friday overnight, base metals on the domestic and overseas markets generally rose, with only SHFE tin falling, down 0.1%. LME copper, LME aluminum, LME zinc, SHFE zinc, and SHFE nickel all gained over 1%, with LME copper up 1.02%, LME aluminum up 1.79%, LME zinc up 1.99%, SHFE zinc up 1.37%, and SHFE nickel up 1.04%; the other metals rose within 1%. Alumina main contract rose 0.97%, and cast aluminum main contract rose 0.5%. Last Friday overnight, ferrous metals collectively rose, with iron ore up 1.06% and hot-rolled coil up 1.03%. In terms of coking coal and coke, coking coal rose 2.42% and coke rose 3.51%. Last Friday overnight, precious metals: Driven by the decline in the US dollar, COMEX gold rose 1.97% and COMEX silver rose 1.33%. On a weekly basis, COMEX gold rose 5.05%, recording its fifth consecutive weekly gain; COMEX silver rose 5.99%, marking its third straight weekly gain. Domestically, SHFE gold rose 2.36%, successfully breaking through the 1,000 yuan/g mark, and SHFE silver rose 2.15%. On a weekly basis, SHFE gold rose 4.4% and SHFE silver rose 6.47%. As of 8:21 p.m. on August 22, last Friday overnight closing prices: Macro front Domestic: [State Council Executive Meeting: Conduct maintenance and risk inspection of power equipment and facilities to ensure safe and stable operation of the power system] Li Qiang presided over an executive meeting of the State Council. The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to strengthen prevention beforehand and source control, conduct maintenance and risk inspection of power equipment and facilities, strictly control quality in all aspects of new project design, construction, and acceptance, and ensure the safe and stable operation of the power system. It is also necessary to enhance emergency response capabilities for power safety accidents, continuously promote the iterative upgrading of technical equipment, and improve the working pattern where all departments work together. (Jin Shi Data App) [Ministry of Finance: Jan–Jul national general public budget revenue up 5.8% YoY] According to the latest data from the Ministry of Finance, from January to July this year, national general public budget revenue was 1.437 billion yuan, up 5.8% YoY, with the growth rate 1.1 percentage points higher than in H1. National general public budget expenditure maintained necessary intensity, and expenditure in key areas was well secured. From January to July, national general public budget expenditure was 1.629 billion yuan, up 1.3% YoY. (CCTV News) [State Administration for Market Regulation: Embodied AI robots and solid-state power batteries included in the second phase of quality strengthening chain] On the morning of August 21, the State Administration for Market Regulation held a special press conference on "Promoting the Implementation of Quality Strengthening Chain."Zhang Leilei, Deputy Director of the Quality Development Bureau of the State Administration for Market Regulation, introduced at the meeting that on the basis of the successful completion of the first phase, the Administration has systematically planned and promoted the second phase of ten landmark projects for quality chain strengthening. While continuing key areas such as high-end instruments and meters, new energy, and industrial robots, it has expanded into new directions including embodied AI robots and solid-state power batteries, and added key areas such as machine tools, drones, and advanced synthetic biomanufacturing. Talking about the layout considerations for phase two projects, Zhang Leilei said that phase two adheres to the "three batches" optimization layout: continue a batch of key areas such as high-end instruments and meters, new energy, and industrial robots, and deepen breakthroughs; expand a batch of new directions such as embodied AI robots and solid-state power batteries, closely following industrial iterative development; add a batch of key areas such as machine tools, drones, and advanced synthetic biomanufacturing, targeting hot topics of industrial development. (Jin Shi Data APP) On the US dollar front: As of the close last Friday overnight, the US dollar index fell 0.02% to 98.85, with a weekly decline of 0.79%. TD Securities strategists noted in a report that additional guidance that Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh might provide at the Jackson Hole symposium this week could give investors "a slight sigh of relief." However, if Warsh continues to avoid providing forward guidance, it would be disappointing. They said: "The market will expect stability from Warsh, but the risk of disappointment remains high." The strategists believe that Warsh may try to improve communication, but forward guidance may still be insufficient. "The market will look for clues about his reaction function and a reaffirmation of the Fed's ability to fight inflation." The strategists expect Warsh's speech to be incremental rather than disruptive. (Jin Shi Data APP) In addition, according to Bloomberg, economists raised their forecasts for US economic growth in the third quarter, reflecting upward revisions to expectations for consumer spending and private investment including capital expenditure in the AI sector. According to Bloomberg's latest monthly survey of economists, gross domestic product is now expected to grow at an annualized rate of 2.5% in Q3, up from the 2% forecast in the previous survey. Quarterly GDP forecasts through the end of 2027 remained largely unchanged, all within a narrow range of 2%-2.2%. Economists' inflation forecasts through the end of next year also saw little adjustment. The personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy is expected to average 3.2% this year, before pulling back and averaging 2.5% for the full year 2027. With the so-called core PCE price indicator showing inflation is slowing, economists expect the US Fed to keep interest rates unchanged through the end of July next year. ((Bloomberg) According to CME's FedWatch, the probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through September stands at 59.9%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 40.1%. For October, the probability of no change is 45.3%, a cumulative 25-bp hike at 44.9%, and a cumulative 50-bp hike at 9.8% (Jin10 Data App). Currency strategists at Citigroup have recently turned bearish on the US dollar, as the market prepares for a less hawkish Fed, midterm elections, and an expanded debt buyback program by the US Treasury. In a research note on Thursday, strategists led by Daniel Tobon said the team cut its three-month US dollar index forecast to 98.34 from 102.12. The shift followed a warning from the bank that US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's latest move to lower long-term borrowing costs—expanding the buyback of 10-to-30-year Treasuries—could come at the expense of a weaker dollar. The previous day, the US dollar index had fallen to its lowest since May before settling basically flat at 98.9. Tobon and his team noted they had been "more neutral" on the dollar in recent months and warned that risks could rise in the coming months. (Wall Street See) On the macro front: In the US this week, data to be released include the US weekly ADP employment change for the week ending August 8, the US June FHFA house price index month-on-month, the US June S&P/CS 20-city not seasonally adjusted home price index year-on-year, the US July new home sales annualized, the US August Conference Board consumer confidence index, the US August Richmond Fed manufacturing index, the US July core PCE price index year-on-year, the US July personal spending month-on-month, the US Q2 real GDP annualized quarterly revision, the US July core PCE price index month-on-month, the US July durable goods orders month-on-month, the US initial jobless claims for the week ending August 22, the US August Chicago PMI, the US 2026 nonfarm payroll base revision preliminary, the US August University of Michigan consumer sentiment final, and the US August one-year inflation expectations final. In Germany, data include the German Q2 not seasonally adjusted GDP year-on-year final, the German August IFO business climate index, the German September GfK consumer confidence index, the German August seasonally adjusted unemployment change, and the German August seasonally adjusted unemployment rate. In France, data include the French August CPI month-on-month preliminary and the French Q2 GDP year-on-year final. In the euro area, data include the euro area August industrial confidence index and the euro area August economic sentiment index. Other data to be released include the Swiss August ZEW investor confidence index, the Swiss August KOF economic barometer, the Canadian Q2 current account, the Canadian June GDP month-on-month, the Australian July not seasonally adjusted CPI year-on-year, the UK August CBI retail sales difference, and the Japanese July unemployment rate. In addition, China will kick off a new round of price adjustment window for refined oil products. The Reserve Bank of Australia will release the minutes of its August monetary policy meeting. 2027 FOMC voter and Richmond Fed President Barkin will deliver a speech on "The Mysterious US Economy," and also attend a panel discussion. The Jackson Hole Global Central Banking Symposium will be held from August 27 to 29. Fed Chairman Warsh will deliver his first speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Banking Symposium. Nvidia will report its earnings after the US market close on August 26. Crude oil side: Both oil prices fell overnight last Friday, with WTI down 0.22% and Brent down 0.19%. On a weekly basis, WTI rose 5.15% and Brent rose 5.74%, both recording a second consecutive week of gains. Trump again signaled tensions, with CCTV International News reporting that he claimed Iran is very eager to reach a deal, but he is unsure whether he really wants to reach one, because in his view, "the Strait of Hormuz is now US territory—it is US territory." Market concerns over tightening crude oil supply in the coming weeks have intensified. Hedge funds sharply reduced their net short positions on European diesel to the lowest level in over two years, while adding new bullish bets, indicating that traders expect the historic fuel supply crisis to persist. Profit margins for producing diesel and light diesel from crude oil have risen to near record highs. Diesel supply has tightened significantly due to reduced crude oil supply from the Middle East and the ban on most Russian diesel exports following renewed Ukrainian attacks on refineries. With no signs of the crisis abating, hedge funds cut net short positions on light diesel (Gasoil) by 309 lots in the latest week, to the lowest level since July 2024, based on ICE Futures Europe data. Meanwhile, hedge funds added 1,498 lots in net long positions, pushing total long open interest to the highest level since the week before the outbreak of the US-Iran war. On a net basis, trader bullishness on light diesel reached its highest level in about six months. (Jin Shi Data APP) Additionally, Citigroup noted in a client report on Thursday that the US-Iran conflict and disruption of the Strait of Hormuz have led to a cumulative global observable inventory destocking of approximately 519 million barrels from February to August 2026, with a daily average destocking of 3 million barrels. If this pace continues, OECD inventories could fall to the 70-day safety line as early as the end of 2027—a critical level last seen during the second oil crisis in the 1970s and 1980s. Meanwhile, refined oil products such as diesel have shown signs of localized crisis, and market concerns over the current situation are intensifying. Citi maintains its base case scenario: the U.S. and Iran will reach an agreement in Q4 this year, leading to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with Brent crude oil expected to pull back to the $60 range by 2027. (Wall Street Journal)

Nickel prices bottomed out and rebounded this week, with macro sentiment dominating the pace. Early in the week, supported by mild cooling in the US July PPI and further decline in expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes, nonferrous metals generally rose, and the most-traded SHFE nickel contract rebounded from lows last week; mid-week, the 10-year US Treasury yield once climbed to 4.75%, a new high since January 2025, putting nickel prices under pressure, pulling back to a weekly low of 127,850 yuan/mt; on Thursday, the US Treasury unexpectedly announced expansion of the size of long-term nominal Treasury buybacks, triggering a rebound in US Treasuries and a sharp intraday drop in the US dollar index, with both LME nickel and SHFE nickel surging; SHFE nickel night session rallied sharply, reclaiming the 130,000 yuan/mt level, before pulling back slightly on Friday,resulting in a weekly gain of about 0.6% WoW. On the spot market front, the SMM #1 refined nickel average price this week was 129,290 yuan/mt, up 180 yuan/mt WoW; the Jinchuan refined nickel premium widened from 1,400 yuan/mt to 1,550 yuan/mt mid-week and then stabilized; discounts for mainstream electrodeposited nickel narrowed significantly, briefly rising to the 0-500 yuan/mt range mid-week, with overall weekly activity still dominated by just-in-time procurement. On the macro front, US Treasury market turmoil and policy response were the main themes for nonferrous metal pricing this week. In the first half of the week, the 10-year US Treasury yield once climbed to 4.75%, a new high since January 2025, with US dollar strength weighing on metal valuations; on Thursday, the US Treasury unexpectedly announced expansion of the size of long-term nominal Treasury buybacks, and Treasury Secretary Bessent further said he stands ready to expand buybacks of debt with higher financing costs; the US bond market rebounded, long-term yields pulled back significantly, and the US dollar index once fell 0.85% intraday, the largest single-day drop in three weeks, providing a significant boost to USD-denominated base metals. On the geopolitical front, the Trump administration announced a new round of "toughest-ever" economic sanctions on Iran and threatened economic action against any countries with commercial ties to Iran, tightening the Middle East situation again and keeping sulfur supply risk premium elevated. On the domestic front, the central bank released July financial data: aggregate social financing increment in the first seven months cumulated 22.25 trillion yuan, down 1.74 trillion yuan from a year earlier; M2 balance at end-July was 355.51 trillion yuan, up 7.7% YoY, with liquidity environment remaining reasonably ample. On inventory front, bonded zone inventory in Shanghai stood at about 1,400 mt this week, flat WoW. Domestic social inventory was about 131,000 mt, down about 2,500 mt WoW. Currently, nickel prices are in a tug-of-war between macro tailwinds and fundamental pressure: US expansion of Treasury buybacks and a weaker US dollar are positive for base metals, but both LME and China domestic inventories maintain a rising trend, with visible inventory at historical highs, and Indonesia's RKAB additional quotas remain unresolved. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in a core range of 127,000-132,000 yuan/mt next week.

SMM Weekly Stainless Steel Futures Review — week of August 17–21, 2026. Chinese stainless steel futures held in a narrow band all week, settling at RMB 14,205/mt (about $2,108/mt) on August 21.

SMM, August 21 – Metal Market: By the midday close, base metals in the domestic market broadly gained. SHFE copper rose 0.36%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.11%. SHFE lead rose 1.22%. SHFE zinc rose 1.38%. SHFE tin rose 0.92%. SHFE nickel fell 0.67%. In addition, the most-traded aluminum alloy futures rose 0.17%, the most-traded alumina futures rose 0.82%. The most-traded lithium carbonate futures rose 3.61%. The most-traded silicon metal futures rose 0.23%. The most-traded polysilicon futures rose 2.28%. Ferrous metals showed mixed performance. Iron ore edged down, rebar rose 0.43%, hot-rolled coil rose 0.18%. Stainless steel fell 1.18%. On coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.35%, the most-traded coke contract rose 1.57%. On base metals in overseas markets, as of 11:40, LME metals all rose. LME copper rose 0.51%, LME aluminum rose 0.64%. LME lead rose0.29%, LME zinc rose0.8%. LME tin rose0.36%. LME nickel edged up. On precious metals, as of 11:40, COMEX gold rose 0.34%, hitting a new high since May at $4,600.3/oz during the session; COMEX silver rose 1.06%. In domestic precious metals: SHFE gold rose 1.22%, the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 4.07%. Also, by the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures rose 3.58%, the most-traded palladium futures rose 1.79%. By the midday close, the most-traded Europe route container shipping futures contract rose 8.96%, at 1,910 points. As of 11:40 on August 21, partial futures midday quotations: Spot Market and Fundamentals Silver: The US Treasury's expansion of long-term bond buyback scale pushed the US dollar weaker, silver prices rebounded, but rising US Treasury yields and hawkish signals limited the gains. High silver prices continued to suppress demand in the spot market, with trading sluggish... Macro Front China: [Ministry of Finance: The ministry will promptly plan and introduce pragmatic and effective incremental policies in H2] Liao Min, Vice Minister of Finance, stated at a press conference on August 21 of the "Starting the 15th Five-Year Plan" series hosted by the State Council Information Office that since the beginning of this year, the Ministry has adopted multiple measures to continue supporting and encouraging consumption. It allocated 187.5 billion yuan for consumer goods trade-in, driving approximately 1.32 trillion yuan in sales of related goods, benefiting 178 million person-times. It innovatively launched a package of fiscal-financial coordination policies to boost domestic demand, targeting resident consumption and consumer industry operators, leveraging both the supply and demand sides. This policy has already benefited 113 million person-times. In 50 pilot cities, a receipt lottery campaign was launched, driving sales in related sectors to exceed 370 billion yuan. In H2, fiscal policy will continue to focus on accelerating fund utilization, boosting domestic demand, and strengthening fiscal reform and management to deliver tangible results. Regarding incremental policies, the Ministry of Finance will promptly formulate and introduce practical and effective incremental policies based on the macroeconomic conditions in H2, providing strong support for achieving an effective improvement in economic quality and a reasonable growth in quantity. (Xinhua News Agency) [National Energy Administration: China's total electricity consumption up 4.7% YoY in January-July 2026] On August 21, the National Energy Administration released data on total electricity consumption for July and the first seven months. From January to July, total electricity consumption reached 6,139.9 billion kWh, up 4.7% YoY. By sector, primary industry consumption was 87.7 billion kWh, up 3.5% YoY. Secondary industry consumption was 3,917.3 billion kWh, up 4.7% YoY, with industrial consumption at 3,881.5 billion kWh (up 4.9% YoY) and high-tech and equipment manufacturing consumption at 722.8 billion kWh (up 9.7% YoY). Tertiary industry consumption was 1,210 billion kWh, up 7.4% YoY, of which charging and battery swapping services and internet data services consumed 97.4 billion kWh and 59.3 billion kWh respectively, with growth rates of 55.8% and 43.3%. Urban and rural residential consumption was 924.9 billion kWh, up 1.3% YoY. (National Energy Administration) [PBOC conducts reverse repo operations, posting net injection of 95 billion yuan today and net withdrawal of 272 billion yuan this week] The PBOC conducted 95 billion yuan in overnight reverse repos today, with no reverse repos maturing, resulting in a net injection of 95 billion yuan. This week, the PBOC conducted a total of 1,457.6 billion yuan in reverse repo operations. With 18 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos and 1,711.6 billion yuan in overnight reverse repos maturing this week, the net withdrawal was 212 billion yuan. (Jin10 Data APP) On the US dollar front: As of 11:40, the US dollar index fell 0.11% to 98.76. Citigroup's foreign exchange strategists turned bearish on the US dollar's short-term outlook, as the market prepares for a more dovish US Fed, the US midterm elections, and a further expansion of US Treasury buyback scale by the US Treasury. The Citigroup strategist team led by Daniel Tobon said they had lowered their US dollar index forecast for the next three months from 102.12 to 98.34. Citigroup had previously noted that US Treasury Secretary Bessent's recent move to lower long-term borrowing costs by expanding the buyback of US Treasuries with maturities from 10 to 30 years could come at the expense of the US dollar. The US dollar index, after falling to its lowest level since May on Wednesday, was basically flat near 98.9 on Thursday. Citigroup's team stated that their view on the dollar has been "relatively neutral" in recent months, but they have warned that risks to the dollar in the coming months could increase. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said on bond buybacks that the scale of a single buyback (upper limit) could exceed $4 billion, partly to send a signal. He said, "We want to show that yields do not reflect fundamentals." Meanwhile, he said the government may announce increased fiscal consolidation efforts, and it is highly likely that the deficit peak has already been seen. Regarding the debt figures, the $40 trillion debt number has no special meaning. The market is a bit too hasty. If there are any changes to the balance sheet, the Treasury and the Fed will cooperate. It needs to be clear that interest rates are unrelated to the buyback decision. On the inflation outlook, Bessent said market indicators point to lower inflation ahead. Regarding economic sanctions on Iran, Bessent said a press conference will be held next Monday to discuss related actions. The use of the Federal Reserve's reverse repo facility (RRP), open to foreign central banks and other monetary authorities, has continued to climb, with the balance growing for two consecutive weeks, reflecting that foreign official institutions are continuing to increase their US dollar cash reserves. As of August 19, the amount of foreign entities' funds parked in the Fed's reverse repo pool rose to $373 billion, up from $357 billion a week earlier. Since August 5, the facility's usage has increased by approximately $56 billion in total, the largest two-week increase since October 2022. The market is closely watching changes in foreign RRP balances for signs of whether Japan, after intervening in the foreign exchange market to support the yen last month, is re-accumulating US dollar liquidity. According to the CME "FedWatch": The probability of the Fed holding rates unchanged in September is 63.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 36.2%. The probability of the Fed holding rates unchanged in October is 51.8%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 41.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point rate hike is 6.8%. (Jin Shi Data APP) Data side: Today's releases include the UK July public sector net borrowing, UK July retail sales month-on-month (seasonally adjusted), France August manufacturing PMI preliminary, Germany August manufacturing PMI preliminary, Eurozone August manufacturing PMI preliminary, UK August manufacturing PMI preliminary, UK August services PMI preliminary, Canada June retail sales month-on-month, US August S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary, global services PMI preliminary, Eurozone August consumer confidence index preliminary, China July total social electricity consumption YoY, and China July installed power generation capacity year-to-date. In addition, note: Hang Seng Indexes Company announced the review results of the Hang Seng Index Series for Q2 2026. Crude oil: As of 11:40, oil prices in both markets edged down, with WTI down 0.43% and Brent down 0.27%. As the US-Iran peace talks remained stalled, the security situation in the Middle East grew increasingly severe, and vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday declined from the previous day. Preliminary data from vessel-tracking company Kpler showed that a total of seven cargo ships transited the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, below 14 on Wednesday; among them, four vessels entered the strait and three exited. The data showed that no Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) or liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers passed through this narrow sea lane on Thursday. However, a very large gas carrier transporting propane and butane exited the strait via an Iranian route. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot market snapshot: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM Nickel News on August 21: Macro and Market News: (1) The Trump administration announced a new round of the "most severe" economic sanctions on Iran and threatened economic actions against any country that has commercial dealings with Iran. (2) US Treasury Secretary Bessent said he is prepared to further expand the scope of repurchases of debt with higher financing costs, while the Trump administration will introduce a new fiscal measure to address borrowing costs that have reached multi-year highs. Spot Market: On August 21, the average price of SMM #1 refined nickel was 129,600 yuan/mt, down 650 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 1,550 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day, and the range for mainstream domestic brands of electrodeposited nickel was -100 to 500 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2609 contract plunged in the night session and rebounded slightly in the morning session, closing at 128,860 yuan/mt at the end of the morning session, down 0.67%. Currently, the US is expanding the scale of Treasury bond repurchases, which is a positive macro environment for base metals. However, LME and China's inventories maintain an accumulation trend, with visible inventory at historically high levels. In the short term, the price range for the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is 125,000-130,000 yuan/mt.

[SMM Tin Morning Briefing: Night Session Consecutive Gains Stabilized at 428,000, Downstream Mainly Rigid Demand Price Fixing at 424,000-426,000]

SMM August 21 News: Metal Market: Overnight, base metals in the domestic market generally rose. SHFE copper edged up 0.01%. SHFE aluminum fell 0.47%. SHFE lead rose 1.1%. SHFE zinc rose 0.78%, and SHFE tin rose 0.75%. SHFE nickel fell 0.96%. Additionally, the most-traded alumina futures rose 0.45%, while the most-traded primary aluminum contract fell 0.33%. Overnight, ferrous metals mostly fell. Stainless steel fell 1.39%, iron ore edged up, and rebar rose 0.3%. Hot-rolled coil fell 0.12%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 1.48%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 0.02%. Overnight in overseas markets, LME base metals showed mixed performance. LME copper edged down, LME aluminum fell 1.62%. LME lead rose 0.72%. LME zinc rose 0.92%. LME tin rose 0.77%. LME nickel fell 1.08%. Overnight precious metals : COMEX gold rose 0.66%, hitting an intraday high of $4,597.1/oz; COMEX silver rose 3.5%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 1.03%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 2.97%. As of 7:16 a.m. on August 21, overnight closing prices: Macro Front China: [Shanghai: By the end of 2026, fully launch overall renovation projects of urban villages and fully complete remediation] The General Office of Shanghai Municipal People's Government issued the "15th Five-Year Plan for Urban Renewal and Housing Development in Shanghai." It proposes accelerating the renovation of urban villages, fully utilizing special loans for urban village renovation and local government special bonds, and increasing fiscal investment. It also aims to expedite relocation and land vacation, actively promote diversified resettlement such as housing vouchers. By the end of 2026, fully launch overall renovation projects of urban villages and fully complete remediation. By the end of 2027, fully complete preliminary renovation of overall renovation projects. Simultaneously, implement planning-based point removal. Accelerate comprehensive renovation of old public housing, through demolition and reconstruction, old city renovation, functional replacement, and other methods to renovate non-complete staff residential buildings, actively improve public housing rental rights collection and relocation update pathways. By the end of 2026, strive to fully complete the renovation of the remaining approximately 20,000 m² of small-beam thin-slab housing. By the end of 2030, strive to basically complete the renovation of non-complete staff residential buildings, achieve positive results in the renovation of non-complete lane, apartment, and garden houses, and promote the implementation of a batch of urban renewal projects that combine livelihood improvement and conservation development. [Shanghai International Energy Exchange further expands tradable product range for qualified foreign investors, newly opens low-sulfur fuel oil options] Shanghai International Energy Exchange announced that, with the approval of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, starting from September 10, 2026 (i.e., opening at 9:00 a.m. that day), the Shanghai International Energy Exchange will further expand the tradable product range for Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors and Renminbi Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors (collectively referred to as Qualified Foreign Investors), and newly open the following commodity options: low-sulfur fuel oil options. US dollar side: Overnight, the US dollar index rose 0.08% to 98.87. According to the CME "FedWatch": The probability of the US Fed keeping interest rates unchanged at September stands at 63.8%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 36.2%. For October, the probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged is 51.8%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 41.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike is 6.8%. In addition, Fed Chairman Warsh will deliver a speech at Jackson Hole at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time on August 28 (10:00 p.m. Beijing time on August 28). Fed Daly said that the rise in long-term yields is a global issue, weakening its signaling role for Fed policy, and he believes there is no risk to the Fed's credibility. Short-term yields indicate that the market understands the Fed's reaction function, and that Fed policy is in good shape, with no evidence seen of needing to raise rates early. He expects the inflation shock will gradually fade, so he is "very supportive" of the Fed's decision to keep rates unchanged in July. However, one needs to be cautious about the cumulative effect of multiple inflation shocks, although he is looking for more concerning signs of inflation but has not seen them yet. Recent employment and inflation data have not changed the outlook, and he does not currently believe the labor market will drive inflation. The rise in bond yields has not sent a policy signal, and it is too early to discuss the Treasury issuance model. The Fed will find ways to achieve its policy objectives. The Fed will continue to fulfill its duties regardless of Treasury actions. US Treasury Secretary Bessent, on the issue of bond buybacks, said that a single buyback operation could exceed $4 billion in size (upper limit), partly as a signal. They want to show that yields do not reflect fundamentals. At the same time, they may announce a greater fiscal consolidation effort, and it is very likely they have already seen the peak in deficits. As for the debt figure, the $40 trillion debt number has no special significance. The market is a bit ahead of itself. If there are any changes in the balance sheet, the Treasury and the Fed will coordinate. To be clear, interest rates have nothing to do with the buyback decision. On the inflation outlook, Bessent said that market indicators point to lower readings ahead. On economic sanctions against Iran, Bessent said that a press conference will be held next Monday to discuss related actions. Citigroup's foreign exchange strategists have turned bearish on the short-term outlook for the US dollar, as the market is preparing for a more dovish Fed, the US midterm elections, and the Treasury's further expansion of Treasury buyback operations. The Citi strategist team, led by Daniel Tobon, said it has lowered its 3-month US dollar index forecast from 102.12 to 98.34. Citi previously noted that US Treasury Secretary Bessent's recent move to lower long-term borrowing costs by expanding the scale of repurchases of 10-year to 30-year US Treasury bonds could come at a cost to the US dollar. The US dollar index fell to its lowest level since May on Wednesday and then was basically flat around 98.9 on Thursday. The Citi team said they have maintained a "relatively neutral" view on the US dollar in recent months but have warned that risks to the US dollar could increase in the coming months. (Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: Today will see the release of UK public sector net borrowing in July, UK July seasonally adjusted month-on-month retail sales, France August manufacturing PMI preliminary, Germany August manufacturing PMI preliminary, Eurozone August manufacturing PMI preliminary, UK August manufacturing PMI preliminary, UK August services PMI preliminary, Canada June month-on-month retail sales, US August S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary, Global services PMI preliminary, Eurozone August consumer confidence index preliminary, China July total social electricity consumption YoY, and China's year-to-date July national installed power generation capacity. In addition, attention should be paid to: Hang Seng Indexes Company will announce the results of the Hang Seng Index series review for Q2 2026. On crude oil: Both crude oil futures extended their gains for a fourth consecutive trading session overnight, with WTI crude up 2.16% and Brent crude up 1.77%. Oil prices surged due to Trump's threat of sanctions on Iran. As mentioned by Wall Street Sights, citing CCTV, Bessent revealed that a press conference will be held on August 24, next Monday, to elaborate on the US action plan against Iran. Bessent hinted that increasing economic pressure could be an important means to avoid restarting large-scale military operations. CCTV quoted him as saying: "We have asymmetric information. I'm not sure why oil issues have become the focus. If we apply maximum economic pressure, it means that large-scale military conflict is less likely." UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said: "Tensions in the Middle East remain high, leaving room for further supply disruptions. The decline in Middle East crude exports is tightening the oil market." (Wall Street Sights) NYMEX New York crude oil September futures, affected by contract rollover, will conduct its last floor trading at 2:30 AM on August 21 and its last electronic trading at 5:00 AM. Please pay attention to the contract rollover announcements of the trading venues to control risks. In addition, the expiration time of US crude oil contracts on some trading platforms is usually one day earlier than the official NYMEX time. Please be cautious.