In 2017, China used a hard “June 30” deadline to purge roughly 140 million tonnes of “ground-strip steel” (ditiaogang) capacity. But the furnaces did not disappear. Customs data tells the rest: after the ban, Southeast Asia's share of China's electric-furnace equipment exports climbed as high as 40.6%, and Indonesia's imports rose roughly 19-fold over eight years to become the world's No. 1 destination. The collapse of the State Audit Office tower in Bangkok sounded the first alarm.

[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary] Silicon metal: Yesterday, SMM oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China was at about 9,100-9,200 yuan/mt, and #441 silicon was at about 9,200-9,400 yuan/mt, with the price center edging up WoW. In the futures market, the most-traded contract showed strength, with the most-traded SI2609 contract consolidating near 8,600 yuan/mt. Futures prices rose, which, combined with silicon enterprises’ reluctance to sell at low prices, reduced cheap supply in the silicon market. Suppliers’ offer centers firmed, while downstream users remained largely in a wait-and-see sentiment, resulting in subdued trading. Wafers: Market prices were 0.798-0.827 yuan/piece for 18X wafers, 0.896-0.915 yuan/piece for 210RN wafers, and 1.097-1.113 yuan/piece for 210N wafers. The upper end of the wafer price range inched up. Yesterday afternoon, a leading specialized wafer enterprise also suspended quoting, planning to increase prices by over 10%. As of now, three enterprises have stopped quoting or suspended shipments.

According to SMM data, artificial graphite anode material production in July maintained steady growth, up 6% MoM and a significant 70% YoY.

Under the EU Battery and Waste Battery Regulation, the digital battery passport system will come into force on February 18, 2027. Domestic manufacturers exporting lithium‑ion batteries to the EU will face stringent ESG compliance constraints. ESG compliance requirements raised by downstream enterprises have been passed to the upstream of China’s lithium‑ion battery industrial chain, covering tasks such as ESG data collection and supply‑chain due diligence. Relevant manufacturers have built data‑collection systems and driven suppliers to upgrade compliance to help the industrial chain adapt to new market rules. Meanwhile, balancing compliance standards with supply‑chain resilience, improving data‑governance mechanisms and safeguarding data security constitute common challenges for lithium‑ion‑battery practitioners.

[India] Indian HRC offers held at around 515 USD/tonne CFR Vietnam, against bids near 500 USD/tonne CFR, as weak downstream demand and competitive local supply kept Vietnamese buyers cautious. Indian mills resisted lower bids, supported by domestic HRC prices at around 598 USD/tonne (57,000 INR/tonne) EXW Mumbai. Export indications stood at 510-520 USD/tonne FOB India, while freight of 120-130 USD/tonne implied 630-650 USD/tonne CFR Europe, where a large Indian producer was heard to be active recently. Indian billet offers were around 455 USD/tonne FOB East Coast, versus domestic prices of 441 USD/tonne (42,100 INR/tonne) EXW Mandi Gobindgarh. Meanwhile, a deal for 20,000 tonnes of billets was heard at 450 USD/tonne FOB Indian Port for delivery in West Asia.

According to SMM, in July, the operating rate of copper cathode rod enterprises was 67.01%, down 1.7 percentage points MoM, up 0.84 percentage points from expectations, and up 0.5 percentage points YoY. Among them, the operating rate of large enterprises was 78.83%, medium-sized enterprises 48.73%, and small enterprises 58.05%. In July, the operating rate of copper cathode rod enterprises stood at 67.01%, down 1.7 percentage points MoM but up 0.5 percentage points YoY (the operating rate in July last year was 66.51%). Overall, copper prices sustained an upward trend in July, compounded by the persistently high premium on spot copper cathode earlier. As the market entered the traditional consumption off-season, downstream end-user orders were already weak; high copper prices further suppressed purchase willingness, causing new orders for copper cathode rod enterprises to keep weakening. Against this backdrop, many copper cathode rod plants voluntarily arranged maintenance and production cuts, the industry-wide operating level pulled back, and output of copper cathode rod declined. By downstream sector, the two major consumption areas of wire and cable and enamelled wire also bore the impact of high copper prices; enterprises grew more cautious in stockpiling and proactively controlled raw material inventory, while industry orders contracted in tandem, and overall demand exhibited a clear seasonal pullback. In July, days of raw material inventories for copper cathode rod enterprises stood at 2.04 days, while days of finished product inventories were 3.66 days. Copper prices kept rising this month, making enterprises generally more cautious in raw material procurement. Most adopted a strategy of purchasing as needed and restocking only for rigid demand, with days of raw material inventories up 0.1 days MoM. Meanwhile, sluggish downstream wire & cable and enamelled wire demand and lackluster production enthusiasm impeded finished product destocking, pushing days of finished product inventories up 0.22 days MoM. The operating rate of copper cathode rod enterprises is expected to be 64.75% in August. Looking ahead to August, the copper cathode rod operating rate is expected to decline 2.26 percentage points MoM to 64.75%, and drop 3.62 percentage points YoY. Copper prices stay high, downstream fear of high prices continues to ferment, wait-and-see sentiment in the market remains thick, new orders are unlikely to recover significantly, and the industry's August operating may continue to trend weakly. On the foreign trade side, imported copper premiums have pulled back. Affected by July orders falling short of expectations, some copper cathode rod enterprises lowered their quotes and accelerated the delivery pace of long-term contracts, which is expected to drive a MoM rebound in August exports. However, incremental new orders from outside China are limited, making it difficult to reverse weak domestic demand.

According to SMM, the operating rate of copper cathode rod enterprises in July was 67.01%, down 1.7 percentage points MoM, up 0.84 percentage points from expectations, and up 0.5 percentage points YoY. Among them, the operating rate of large enterprises was 78.83%, that of medium-sized enterprises was 48.73%, and that of small enterprises was 58.05%. In July, the operating rate of copper cathode rod enterprises was 67.01%, down 1.7 percentage points MoM and up 0.5 percentage points YoY (66.51% in July last year). Overall, copper prices continued to rise in July, coupled with the long-term high premium pattern of spot copper cathode earlier. The market entered the traditional consumption off-season, and downstream end-user orders were already weak; high copper prices further suppressed purchase willingness, leading to a continued weakening of new orders for copper cathode rod enterprises. Against this backdrop, many copper cathode rod plants proactively arranged maintenance and production cuts, the industry's overall operating level pulled back, and copper cathode rod output declined. By downstream sector, the two main consumption sectors, wire and cable and enamelled wire, also bore the impact of high copper prices. Enterprises became more cautious in stockpiling, actively controlled raw material inventories, and industry orders contracted simultaneously, with overall demand showing a clear seasonal pullback. In July, the days of raw material inventories for copper cathode rod enterprises were 2.04 days, and days of finished product inventories were 3.66 days. With copper prices rising continuously this month, enterprises were generally cautious in raw material procurement, mostly adopting a strategy of purchasing as needed and rigid restocking, with days of raw material inventories increasing by 0.1 days MoM. Meanwhile, demand from downstream wire and cable and enamelled wire was sluggish, production enthusiasm was insufficient, and finished product destocking was hindered, driving days of finished product inventories up by 0.22 days MoM. The operating rate of copper cathode rod enterprises in August is expected to be 64.75%. Looking ahead to August, the operating rate of copper cathode rod is expected to fall by 2.26 percentage points MoM to 64.75%, and decline by 3.62 percentage points YoY. Copper prices stayed high, downstream fear of high prices continued to ferment, market wait-and-see sentiment was strong, and new orders were unlikely to recover significantly. The industry's operating rate in August may continue the weak pattern. On the foreign trade front, imported copper premiums pulled back. Affected by July orders falling short of expectations, some copper cathode rod enterprises lowered their quotes and accelerated the delivery pace of long-term contracts. Exports in August are expected to rebound MoM, but the growth in new overseas orders is limited, making it difficult to reverse weak domestic demand.

DeepSeek V4 Pro triggered a global price war among large language models with its ultra-low pricing. OpenAI slashed prices by 80%, Anthropic pulled back from markets outside China, Microsoft is evaluating integration, and Nvidia’s share of the Chinese GPU market plunged from 95% to 8%. Chinese models accounted for 60% of total call volume on OpenRouter, leading US models for 14 consecutive weeks.

In accordance with the Measures for the Administration of Delivery Warehouses of Shanghai Futures Exchange and other relevant regulations, it is hereby decided that: 1. Approve the reduction of the approved storage capacity of copper futures at the storage location of Minmetals Wuxi Logistics Park Co., Ltd. at No. 1 Tangang Road, Huishan District, Wuxi City, Jiangsu Province, from 20,000 mt to 15,000 mt; the approved storage capacity of tin futures from 2,000 mt to 1,000 mt; and the approved storage capacity of stainless steel futures from 70,000 mt to 60,000 mt. 2. Approve the storage location of Minmetals Wuxi Logistics Park Co., Ltd. at No. 8 Xinsha Road, Machong Town, Dongguan City, Guangdong Province, to become a delivery warehouse storage location for copper futures, with an approved storage capacity of 5,000 mt and no regional premium. All relevant entities shall attach great importance and effectively carry out all tasks to ensure the normal and orderly progress of delivery operations. Hereby announce. Shanghai Futures Exchange August 10, 2026

This week, the industry chain as a whole remained in the doldrums. In the traditional consumption off-season, end-use demand recovery was limited, and market transactions were generally sluggish. Electrolytic products continued to grind lower, affected by loosening overseas quotes and weakening domestic salts and intermediate product prices, leading to rising bearish sentiment. The divergence between miners holding intermediate product prices firm and downstream pushing for lower prices widened, hindering actual transactions. The sulphate, chloride, tetroxide, and powder markets all faced insufficient demand and inventory pressure, with some low-priced supply increasing, keeping short-term prices under pressure. Ternary cathode precursor prices were temporarily stable; top-tier player production load recovered somewhat, and export orders performed well. Ternary cathode material prices rebounded slightly, with EV market orders in August stable and growing, but the consumer market improvement remained insignificant. LCO supply and demand remained mediocre, with prices still likely to decline. On the policy front, multiple regions continued to optimize auto consumption subsidies, the catalogue of vehicle models eligible for vehicle and vessel tax exemptions expanded, and end-use consumption stimulus policies continued to advance.