Nickel Ore " Sluggish RKAB Approvals Drive Potential for Ore Price Hikes" Indonesian domestic nickel ore prices have risen significantly increase this week. For the first half of March, the Indonesian Nickel Ore Benchmark Price (HPM) was set at $17.329/dmt, an increase of 1.32%. However, according to SMM data, average premiums has increased for 1.4%, 1.5%, and 1.6% grade laterite nickel ore were reported at $35, $39, and $39.5/wmt, respectively, with 1.6% grade reaching a delivered price of $65.6–$74.6/wmt. This strengthening of premiums reflects both the release of restocking demand from smelters and pessimistic expectations regarding RKAB quota reductions. Simultaneously, the delivery price for 1.2% grade limonite has edged up to $24–$26/wmt. Pyrometallurgical Ore: From a supply and demand perspective, Sulawesi is transitioning into the dry season; Konawe has reached optimal production levels, while Morowali is recovering from previous floods. However, Halmahera continues to be hampered by thunderstorms, resulting in high moisture content and dragging down mining efficiency. The market is facing a clear trend of declining ore grades. While some NPI smelters have begun accepting grades of 1.45% or lower, the supply of high-grade saprolite remains tight. As of mid-March, the ESDM has approved approximately 100 million tons of RKAB quotas. The remaining 160 to 170 million tons are expected to be processed by the end of March. However, due to the Eid al-Fitr (Lebaran) holidays (March 18–24), approval progress is expected to lag, exacerbating short-term supply tightness. Faced with resource uncertainty, some smelters have increased trade bonuses to secure raw materials. Transactions for low-grade saprolite are emerging at fixed prices lower than high-grade ores. Conversely, Limonite prices remain low due to a tailings dam landslide at a major MHP project, which has forced production lines to operate at low loads, hindering demand recovery. However, Limonite prices are expected to eventually follow Saprolite upward due to new project stockpiling and external island demand. Hydrometallurgical Ore Although the spot supply of hydrometallurgical ore is relatively sufficient, a tailings dam landslide at an MHP project in a certain industrial park has forced related production lines to operate at low loads, leading to a temporary weakness in demand. However, given the concerns over RKAB approval uncertainty, the stockpiling needs of newly commissioned projects, and the growing demand from outer islands, hydrometallurgical ore prices are expected to follow the trend of pyrometallurgical ore and remain elevated. On March 3, 2026, Tri Winarno, Director General of Mineral and Coal, clarified that rumors of a "25%–30% universal increase in RKAB quotas" are false. Quota supplements will be based on individualized assessments of production capacity and compliance, with the approval process not expected to start until the second half of 2026. Market Outlook: Due to the overall delay in RKAB approvals, nickel ore prices in April are expected to remain resilient with a strong "easy to rise, hard to fall" trend. Nickel Pig Iron "NPI Prices See Periodic Retracement as Tug-of-War Intensifies Between Cost Support and Downstream Pressure​​​​​​​" The average price of SMM 10-12% NPI average price rose by RMB 0.3 per nickel unit week-on-week to RMB 1090.2 per nickel unit (ex-works, tax included), while the Indonesia NPI FOB index decreased by USD 0.65 per nickel unit to an average of USD 138.28 per nickel unit. This week, following consecutive price drops in stainless steel finished products and LME/SHFE nickel, the High-Grade NPI market experienced panic selling and low-price liquidation, entering a phase of periodic decline. From the supply side, With ore prices remaining elevated, smelter production costs continue to rise. However, triggered by the sharp decline in futures markets, some traders began offloading arbitrage stocks at low prices, leading to a general softening of upstream quotes.From the demand side, Weighed down by falling stainless steel prices and the influx of low-priced spot goods, most steel mills have lowered their bid intentions, exerting downward pressure on NPI prices. Overall, while cost support for smelters remains, downstream suppression is evident. The combination of futures-driven market sentiment and loosening upstream quotes has led to a periodic retracement in High-Grade NPI Overall outlook, market transactions will remain under pressure in the short term as the cost-tug-of-war between upstream and downstream continues. However, the downward room for NPI prices is expected to be limited.

[SMM Rare Earth Weekly Review: Rare Earth Prices Pulled Back Significantly, Downstream Inquiries and Procurement Decreased] Affected by fluctuations in futures prices, confidence in the Pr-Nd oxide market dropped sharply. Traders proactively sold off cargoes at low prices, causing transaction prices in the Pr-Nd oxide market to fall rapidly. As of today, Pr-Nd oxide prices had already pulled back to 690,000-700,000 yuan/mt.

The 2026 SMM (3rd) Global Renewable Metal Industry Chain Summit & Battery Recycling Forum will be held in Tokyo, Japan, from May 11–12, 2026. The summit aims to bring together leading global enterprises, research institutions, industry experts, and policymakers in the fields of renewable metals and battery recycling.

[SMM Daily Review: Rising Ore Prices Provide Strong Cost Support, High-Grade NPI Prices Were Gradually Raised] March 13 News, SMM's upstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 2.92, up 0.01 MoM, while the downstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 1.72, up 0.07 MoM.

【BDI Continues to Fall】 The Baltic Dry Index (used to measure freight rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities) fell on Wednesday, as the decline in Capesize rates overshadowed gains in Panamax and Supramax rates. The main index tracking Capesize, Panamax, and Supramax rates fell 32 points to 1,374. The Baltic Capesize Index dropped 102 points to 1,935. The average daily earnings for Capesize vessels decreased by $847 to $16,050. Meanwhile, the Baltic Panamax Index rose 2 points to 1,362. Panamax vessels, which typically carry 60,000-70,000 mt of coal or grain, saw their average daily earnings increase by $19 to $12,257. Among smaller vessels, the Supramax Index rose 4 points to 961.

SHANGHAI, Mar 31 (SMM) – The BDI dropped last week as falling freight rates for Supramax vessels more than offset rising freight rates for mega ones.

The BDI rebounded this week on the back of stronger demand for Capesize and Panamax ships.

SHANGHAI, Mar 3 (SMM) – The BDI rebounded this week as the recovery of industrial economy drove the shipping demand for dry bulk cargoes to gradually pick up.

The Baltic Dry Index rose to its highest level since late June on Tuesday as Capesize rates halted a five-day losing streak and Panamax rates extended gains.

The Baltic Dry Index rose to a two-week high on Thursday as the Baltic Capesize Index rose.