According to data from China Customs, in January-May 2026, China’s combined imports of refined lead and lead products totaled 248,443 mt, surging 291.06% YoY on a cumulative basis. The import window was wide open for most of H1, and overseas cargoes kept pouring in. Total imports had already exceeded the full-year 2025 level. On the export side, combined exports of refined lead and lead products in January-May amounted to only 20,197 mt, down 32.49% YoY, remaining at low levels.

The Government of Japan formally announced plans to deploy steep anti-dumping duties targeting imports of nickel-containing cold-rolled stainless steel coils, sheets, and strips from China and Taiwan, effective as early as next month. Following a detailed trade investigation launched in July 2025 after joint industrial complaints from Nippon Steel and Nippon Yakin Kogyo, authorities confirmed that the products were sold at artificially low dumped margins. Ad valorem penalty rates will reach up to 45% for Chinese shipments (including TISCO and POSCO PZSS) and up to 21% for Taiwanese goods

Japan preliminarily determined to impose anti-dumping duties on nickel-bearing cold-rolled stainless steel coil, sheet and strip from China and Taiwan, after finding the imports were dumped and caused material injury to domestic producers. Trade minister Ryosei Akazawa said rates could reach about 45% for Chinese goods and about 21% for Taiwanese goods, with duties possibly taking effect as soon as July. The case, jointly run by METI and the Finance Ministry, began in July 2025 on a complaint led by Nippon Steel and Nippon Yakin Kogyo. China supplies about 20% of Japan's steel-product imports and Taiwan 17%. The measure would close an export outlet for Chinese and Taiwanese 300-series CR stainless amid global overcapacity, likely diverting tonnage to Southeast Asia and other markets.

HRC prices: Over the coming year, from 2026 to 2027, China has nearly 40 million mt of HRC capacity projects under planning and construction, with production expected to increase further in 2026. Demand side, China's macro policies are expected to remain accommodative, and the manufacturing sector is likely to continue introducing policies to stimulate consumption, with demand expectations staying resilient. However, affected by anti-dumping measures and export structure adjustments, the decline in HRC exports will weigh on the domestic high-supply pattern. Overall, HRC prices are expected to continue hovering at lows in 2026. But considering that overseas geopolitical conflicts are pushing up inflation expectations and transmitting to commodity prices, coupled with coal and coke prices hitting bottom in 2025 and entering a new recovery uptick cycle, against the backdrop of cost push, the average HRC price may rebound slightly compared to 2025. Looking ahead to the next five years, considering that the peak period of new production capacity has passed, with the accelerated promotion of industry mergers and reorganizations and the continuous optimization of the capacity structure, HRC supply growth is expected to gradually slow down and stabilize starting from 2027. SMM expects that around 2028, a policy package of supply-side production restrictions plus steel export scale tightening may re-emerge, and the improvement in the overcapacity contradiction may bring about a round of upside opportunities for HRC prices. However, unlike the intensity of the 2015 supply-side reforms that were coupled with real estate easing and shantytown renovation destocking policies, after the phased capacity removal ends, the overall downward trend in China's steel consumption will be hard to reverse, which will limit the upside room of this HRC price rally driven by supply-demand imbalance easing. Additionally, the supply-demand pattern of iron ore trending looser will also pull down costs, and HRC prices are expected to come under pressure again after a brief rise. Steel mill profits: Considering that China's surplus steel capacity is resolved through steel exports, this necessitates China's steel prices to stay relatively low to support price advantages and orders, which will also limit the upside room of China's steel prices, steel mill profits are expected to remain at low marginal levels in H2 2026. China Hot-Rolled Coil Annual Supply-Demand Balance （ The line chart represents China's HRC price, and the bar chart represents the HRC balance. ）

Japan plans to impose provisional anti-dumping duties from July on nickel-based cold-rolled stainless steel sheets and coils from Chinese Taiwan, Chinese Taiwan's Ministry of Economic Affairs stated on June 22 that overall export damage is limited: China Steel Corporation does not produce the investigated products; leading exporter Yusco secured the lowest rate of 3.86%, preserving its competitive position; and Walsin Lihwa primarily exports non-investigated products to Japan. Domestic mills note that Japan represents a minor share of Chinese Taiwan's total stainless steel exports. Government officials have pledged to maintain dialogue with Japanese counterparts and support local industries in adopting AI and low-carbon technologies.

On June 19, 2026, the Turkish Ministry of Trade issued Communiqué No. 2026/10, announcing that, upon application by Turkish producers, it initiated an anti-dumping investigation concerning solar glass (Turkish: solar cam) originating in China, Malaysia, and Vietnam. The dumping investigation period was from October 1, 2024 to September 30, 2025, and the injury investigation period was from January 1, 2022 to September 30, 2025. The products covered are classified under Turkish Customs Tariff Statistics Positions 70.06 and 70.07. The Communiqué entered into force on the date of its publication.

【SMM Steel】Australia's Anti-Dumping Commission initiated an anti-dumping probe on zinc-coated (galvanized) steel from South Korea and Vietnam on June 19, 2026, following an application by local producer BlueScope Steel Limited. The investigation targets five overseas firms: POSCO, Dongkuk Coated Metal, Dongkuk Steel Mill, Hoa Sen Group, and Nam Kim Steel. The dumping probe covers activities from January 1 to December 31, 2025, with injury assessment backdated to January 1, 2022. Involved HS codes: 7210.49.00.55, 7210.49.00.56, 7210.49.00.57, 7210.49.00.58, 7212.30.00.61, 7225.92.00.38, and 7226.99.00.71. The authority will publish the statement of essential facts by October 7, 2026, and deliver the final determination to the Minister for Industry, Innovation and Science by November 23, 2026.

【SMM Steel】South Africa's International Trade Administration Commission (ITAC) recommended a 28.86% provisional anti-dumping duty on large-diameter welded steel tubes and pipes from Mozambique, effective for six months from June 23. The duty targets producer ETG Steel Solutions Limitada and other exporters, following an official probe that found dumped prices harmed local manufacturers. The products involved are welded steel tubes and pipes with external diameter exceeding 406.4 mm, including electric resistance welded, spiral welded, and submerged arc welded pipes under tariff subheading 7305.19. Domestic producer Hall Longmore initiated the complaint. Government records show imports from Mozambique surged from 1.48 million kg in 2023 to over 12.2 million kg in 2025, capturing a 98% import market share. This massive influx undercut local prices and reduced domestic profits. The authority confirmed the trade penalties align with regional agreements permitting AD actions under global trade rules.

According to the latest customs data, China's galvanized steel sheet exports reached 1.2075 million metric tons in May 2026, up 2.67% month-on-month and 8.36% year-on-year. Cumulative exports for January–May 2026 totaled 5.6348 million metric tons, down 2.71% year-on-year.

On June 19, 2026, the Australian Anti-Dumping Commission issued Notice No. 2026/088, terminating the anti-dumping investigation on galvanised sheet [Zinc Coated (Galvanised) Steel] imported from South Korea and Vietnam, following the withdrawal application submitted by the applicant BlueScope Steel Limited. Previously, on May 22, 2026, the Commission issued Notice No. 2026/071, initiating an anti-dumping investigation on galvanised sheet imported from South Korea and Vietnam, in response to an application filed by Australian domestic enterprise BlueScope Steel Limited.