According to foreign media reports, Alcoa has signed two new power agreements with Statkraft, Norway's state-owned electricity company, to support the continued operation of Alcoa's Lista aluminum smelter in Norway. The Lista smelter's No. 2 production line (annual capacity of 31,000 tons) recently restarted successfully, helping the plant operate at its 95,000-ton nameplate capacity. The power agreements are valid from 2028 to 2031, during which time Statkraft will supply Alcoa with approximately 4.8 TWh of electricity.

According to foreign media reports, the Mozambican government stated that it is currently negotiating the future of the Mozal aluminum smelter, Mozambique's largest industrial facility. Due to high electricity prices, the smelter has been undergoing maintenance since its shutdown in March. Mozambican government spokesperson Salim Valá confirmed that the government is in discussions with relevant parties but did not disclose details, stating that the process is still ongoing. Previously, South32 (which holds a 63.7% stake in the Mozal smelter) stated that it was evaluating different options for the smelter and did not rule out the possibility of restarting the project in the future if the situation improves.

SMM, June 18: This week, trading sentiment weakened somewhat for domestic aluminum fluoride enterprises, with prices running steady. As of now, SMM’s aluminum fluoride reference price is 11,280-11,700 yuan/mt; cryolite prices also held steady, with SMM’s reference price at 7,000-8,500 yuan/mt. Raw material side, the 97% fluorite wet powder market was largely stable, with mainstream delivery-to-factory prices at 3,100-3,400 yuan/mt, and notable price spreads by region. Supply side, mine operating rates in the north continued to recover, and Mongolian imports gradually arrived at ports, resulting in a looser supply-demand pattern; however, a coal mine accident in Shanxi triggered expectations of stricter mine safety and environmental oversight, which may cause periodic disruptions to some mines’ production going forward, leaving a wait-and-see sentiment on the supply side. Demand side remained subdued—downstream hydrofluoric acid enterprises, constrained by insufficient operating rates at refrigerant and fluoropolymer terminals, mainly made just-in-time procurement, with limited large-order follow-through. Consequently, fluorite prices are likely to stay weak in the near term. Meanwhile, the aluminum hydroxide market firmed slightly, with SMM’s weighted average price at 1,683 yuan/mt, up 1.2% WoW; the sulphuric acid market hovered at highs, as sulphur cost support and production cuts for maintenance tightened supply in some regions, but cautious demand during the phosphate fertiliser off-season capped upside room, while LFP and fine chemicals provided just-in-time demand support. Raw material side, both aluminum hydroxide and sulphuric acid strengthened, further lifting overall production costs, yet costs could not be effectively passed downstream, putting the industry as a whole under notable pressure. Supply side, a pattern of ‘rigidly high costs—persistent profit pressure—low operating rates’ persisted, with the industry operating rate holding around 40%, limiting effective incremental supply. Demand side, downstream operating aluminum capacity remained high and stable, providing rigid support, but aluminum smelters focused on just-in-time restocking and pushing for lower prices, adopting a wait-and-see stance without releasing additional demand for the time being. On balance, the aluminum fluoride market currently lacks directional drivers, caught in a tug-of-war stalemate between upstream and downstream, with transactions limited to just-in-time procurement, and prices expected to largely stay steady in the near term, leaving limited room for wild swings. Going forward, close attention should be paid to raw material cost-side dynamics and marginal changes in the procurement pace of downstream aluminum enterprises.

SMM, June 11: This week, transaction sentiment in China's aluminum fluoride enterprise sector was moderate, and aluminum fluoride prices remained stable. As of now, SMM aluminum fluoride prices closed at 11,280-11,700 yuan/mt; cryolite prices were stable, with SMM quotations at 7,000-8,500 yuan/mt. Raw material side: This week, China's 97% fluorite wet powder market was steady, with mainstream delivery-to-factory prices at 3,100-3,400 yuan/mt and notable regional price spreads. Supply side, mine operations in the north continued to recover, and domestic spot supply increased steadily; imported cargoes from Mongolia arrived at ports gradually, further easing the supply surplus. However, recent coal mine accidents in Shanxi triggered market expectations of stricter mine safety and environmental protection supervision, which may cause periodic disruptions to some mine production subsequently, maintaining a wait-and-see sentiment on the supply side. Demand side remained persistently weak, as downstream hydrofluoric acid enterprises were dragged by insufficient terminal operating rates for refrigerants and fluoropolymers, resulting in primarily just-in-time procurement with limited large orders. Affected by weak raw materials and insufficient end-use demand, the price center for hydrofluoric acid shifted downwards, weakening support for fluorite. Overall, the domestic supply recovery, replenishment of low-priced imports, and sluggish downstream demand combined as multiple bearish factors, resulting in a loose supply-demand pattern, and short-term fluorite prices are likely to remain under slight downward pressure. This week, China's aluminum hydroxide market held up slightly, with the SMM weighted average price for aluminum hydroxide at 1,663 yuan/mt, edging up 0.4% MoM. Upstream costs underpinned spot offers, while downstream purchases were made as needed, limiting volume growth. This week, China's sulphuric acid market was in a stalemate at highs and moved sideways. Sulphur prices surged again, continuously strengthening bottom-level cost support; losses at sulphuric acid plants led to production cuts, and combined with ongoing maintenance at many acid plants, regional spot supply was differentiated and tight. Although the phosphate fertiliser industry was mired in losses and off-season procurement remained restrained, capping upside room, just-in-time procurement from the new energy LFP sector and base-level purchases from some chemical enterprises provided a floor. In the short term, the sulphuric acid market is consolidating at highs, stuck between upward and downward pressures. Overall, raw material markets for aluminum fluoride diverged this week, with rising aluminum hydroxide and sulphuric acid prices pushing the industry's overall cost center higher. Cost increases from raw materials were difficult to pass downstream smoothly, intensifying cost pressure on enterprise production. Supply side, the operational pattern of "rigid high costs—persistent profit pressure—low operating rates" continued. With sulphuric acid and aluminum hydroxide prices rising this week, the industry was generally in a state of losses, leading to more maintenance and flexible production at enterprises. The industry operating rate remained low at around 40%, with limited effective incremental supply. Demand side, downstream operating aluminum capacity stayed high and stable, forming rigid floor demand for aluminum fluoride, but aluminum smelters' procurement focused on just-in-time restocking and pushing for lower prices with a wait-and-see approach, with no additional incremental demand. Commentary: This week, raw material markets for aluminum fluoride showed mixed performance. Stronger aluminum hydroxide and sulphuric acid prices further pushed up overall costs, continuously squeezing enterprise operating profits. The industry maintained a "triple pressure" structure of high costs, low profits, and low operating rates, making it difficult to boost production enthusiasm. The market currently lacks a directional driver, with the tug-of-war between upstream and downstream causing a stalemate. Transactions were limited to just-in-time procurement. In the short term, aluminum fluoride prices are likely to remain stable, with limited room for wild swings. Close attention should be paid to subsequent developments in raw material cost dynamics and marginal adjustments in the procurement pace of downstream aluminum enterprises.

Quebec aluminum smelters are continuing to operate at around 95% capacity with no reported layoffs despite higher US import tariffs. According to the Aluminum Association of Canada, the Trump administration’s decision to raise aluminum and steel tariffs from 25% to 50% initially resulted in losses of approximately USD600 million for Quebec producers after US customers resisted absorbing the additional costs. However, market conditions have since stabilized as aluminum originally destined for Europe was redirected to the US market to benefit from higher prices. Industry participants noted that global aluminum prices continue to rise, with further upside risks linked to ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the Iran crisis.

[Weekly Review of Aluminum Scrap and Secondary Aluminum]High Raw Material Costs Keep Secondary Aluminum Prices Firm

According to SMM statistics, as of Thursday this week, the social inventory of secondary aluminum alloy ingots in China's major consumption regions decreased slightly by 400 mt WoW to 62,500 mt, ending seven consecutive weeks of inventory buildup. On one hand, insufficient input tax invoices forced some secondary aluminum smelters to cut production, tightening market supply; on the other hand, traders increased shipments as the spot-futures price spread widened, which, combined with downstream procurement and manufacturers' repurchase activities, accelerated spot circulation. In the short term, supported by invoice source constraints and the spot-futures price spread, social inventory may continue modest destocking, but weak demand will limit the scope for destocking.

The proposed aluminum smelter project in Inola, Oklahoma, has become a major political issue after Attorney General and gubernatorial candidate Gentner Drummond filed a lawsuit seeking to halt the development. Concerns include potential impacts on electricity and water supplies, air quality and foreign ownership involvement. The project has received a USD255 million state incentive package and is viewed by supporters as a strategic investment that could create jobs and strengthen domestic aluminum supply for US manufacturing and defense sectors. Markets believe the project’s future will depend on political, environmental and resource-related considerations as legal proceedings continue.

Gulf aluminum producers are accelerating overseas acquisitions and investments as they seek to improve supply-chain resilience, expand market access and reduce exposure to regional geopolitical risks. Recent moves include Aluminum Bahrain’s (Alba) USD2.2 billion acquisition of Aluminum Dunkerque, Europe’s largest primary aluminum smelter, and Emirates Global Aluminum’s (EGA) continued expansion into recycling assets across Europe and North America. Industry forecasts expect global aluminum demand to exceed 92 million tones by 2031, supported by growth in electric vehicles, renewable energy infrastructure and sustainable packaging. Markets believe Gulf producers are increasingly using international expansion to strengthen their positions in the growing low-carbon aluminum market.

Rio Tinto has started commissioning its USD1.5 billion AP60 aluminum smelter expansion at the Arvida plant in Quebec, Canada, with full start-up expected by the end of 2026. The project will add around 160,000 tones of annual primary aluminum capacity, increasing total AP60 production capacity to 220,000 tones per year. Rio Tinto said the AP60 technology, combined with Canadian hydropower, generates only one-sixth of the industry-average greenhouse gas emissions per tone of aluminum and can reduce particulate emissions by up to 90%. Markets believe the project will further strengthen North America’s low-carbon primary aluminum supply capability.