[Geopolitical Conflicts Combined with Rate Hike Slowdown: Aluminum Prices Consolidate on a Strong Note, Encountering Upside Resistance] In a comprehensive assessment, aluminum prices will maintain a pattern of consolidating on a strong note while encountering resistance in the short term.

On July 14, Diantou Energy announced that it expects its net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company for H1 2026 to be 5.173 billion to 5.38 billion yuan, up 45.76%-51.59% YoY. The performance change was mainly driven by improved supply-demand conditions in the aluminum industry and aluminum prices fluctuating at highs, which significantly boosted the profit of the aluminum segment, as well as the company's quality and efficiency enhancement and the strengthened synergy of coal-power-aluminum integration following the major asset restructuring.

SMM, July 15: Today, the futures market saw some decline, and the spot market in South China stabilized from weakness. At the start of trading, suppliers tried to hold prices firm and sell slowly on dips, but bearish sentiment still prevailed, and there were slightly more participants actually looking to sell for cash, causing quotes to be generally lowered passively. However, as expectations of a further weakening spot-futures price spread emerged, the dual decline in aluminum prices and the spread stimulated some traders to increase purchases in the market. Discounted cargoes were quickly absorbed, and buyers even began to accept firm offers. The mainstream quotations steadily recovered from a discount of 10 yuan/mt to flat, with tightening liquidity, and transactions showed an improving trend. Spot transaction prices were concentrated at a discount of 20 yuan/mt to a premium of 20 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum 2607 contract.

[ADC12 Price Daily Review: Aluminum Alloy Futures Move Sideways, Spot Demand Insufficient, Prices Stable Awaiting Market] Today, ADC12 market quotations were generally stable. The pullback in aluminum prices was limited, and the cost side lacked significant drivers for price adjustments.

[Geopolitical Conflicts and Cooling Inflation Keep Aluminum Prices Biased Stronger, Upside Room Limited] Overall, short-term aluminum prices will consolidate on a strong note and encounter resistance.

[Geopolitical Conflicts and Cooling Inflation Keep Aluminum Prices Biased Stronger, Upside Room Limited] Overall, short-term aluminum prices will consolidate on a strong note and encounter resistance.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Cost Increases Support Price Hikes, Off-Season Demand Suppresses Gains] Yesterday, price adjustment intentions in the ADC12 market diverged: cost-side increases led some enterprises to try to follow the rise, while others still chose to keep their quotes stable for the time being. Currently, the traditional consumption off-season atmosphere is intensifying, with downstream orders and transactions remaining weak, and price increases facing some resistance. Against the backdrop of insufficient demand support, enterprises overall are mainly watching the market and selling at stable prices. In the short term, the spot ADC12 price is expected to still show a pattern where cost support and demand suppression coexist, mainly moving sideways.

SMM, July 14: The trading center of the SHFE aluminum 2606 contract in early trading was higher than the same period of the previous trading day. Affected by higher aluminum prices, market buying sentiment was weak today, with just-in-time procurement dominating. Transactions were mainly at discounts of 10-20 yuan/mt against the SHFE August contract. Today, the selling sentiment index in east China stood at 3.08, flat DoD; the buying sentiment index stood at 3.16, flat DoD. The July off-season, combined with high temperatures, kept operating rates at downstream processing enterprises in central China low, and buying sentiment remained weak. However, with relatively large premiums/discounts, traders' hedging sentiment encouraged them to widen discounts to capture price spreads, resulting in higher buying interest. At the same time, suppliers showed a notable willingness to hold prices firm when selling, pushing discounts higher. Ultimately, actual transactions in central China were concluded at discounts of 130-170 yuan/mt against the SHFE August contract. Today, the selling sentiment index in central China was 2.81, down 0.02 DoD; the buying sentiment index was 2.23, up 0.01 DoD. On the inventory front, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption areas fell by 0.1 DoD today, with destocking mainly in Wuxi and Guangdong.

SMM, July 14: Today, SMM A00 spot aluminum prices closed at 23,270 yuan/mt, up 270 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The aluminum scrap market broadly followed with gains of 150-200 yuan/mt. Regarding price spread between A00 aluminum and scrap: on July 15, the price difference between A00 aluminum and mixed aluminum extrusion scrap free of paint in Foshan recorded 2,072 yuan/mt, and the price difference between A00 aluminum and shredded aluminum tense scrap was 758 yuan/mt. Supply-side constraints continued to intensify, and the impact of the reverse invoicing policy further deepened. News emerged from Shandong about suspending reverse invoicing starting July, while production cuts and suspensions among small and medium-sized scrap utilization enterprises in Anhui, Jiangxi, Hubei and other places were spreading. The scarcity of compliant, invoiced aluminum scrap further increased. On the import front, the scarcity of high-quality overseas supply caused by the earlier inversion of price spreads between Chinese and overseas markets, along with a 1-3 month shipping lag, kept port arrivals low from June to August. Meanwhile, the UAE's aluminum scrap export ban and the EU's tariff hike further intensified the contraction effect on overseas aluminum scrap supply. This week, the aluminum scrap market is expected to continue a sideways rangebound pattern, weighed by demand and supported by costs. The mainstream trading range for shredded aluminum tense scrap (priced based on aluminum content) is around 19,900-20,500 yuan/mt. The pullback in spot primary aluminum prices limited further narrowing of the price spread between A00 aluminum and scrap, the cost advantage of aluminum scrap over primary aluminum is unlikely to disappear in the short term, and demand-side support for scrap prices remains. If aluminum prices continue to decline, the substitution effect of primary aluminum for scrap will accelerate.

[Expectations for US Fed Interest Rate Hikes Persist, Geopolitical Premiums Underpin Aluminum Prices' Bottom Resilience] According to comprehensive forecasts, aluminum prices will continue to consolidate on a strong note and encounter resistance in the short term.