SMM, May 15: During the morning session, the SHFE aluminum 2606 contract fluctuated downward, with the overall price center moving significantly lower compared to the previous trading day. Today, market purchasing sentiment remained weak. Affected by the sharp decline in aluminum prices, some sellers showed strong sentiment to hold prices firm. Mainstream spot cargo quotations in the market ranged from SMMA00 minus 10 yuan/mt to minus 20 yuan/mt. Today, the east China market shipment sentiment index was 3, unchanged MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.83, up 0.03 MoM. Today, aluminum futures prices pulled back significantly from the previous day's morning session. Combined with the fact that it was Friday, downstream processing enterprises in the central China market saw a recovery in stockpiling sentiment, and the overall trading atmosphere improved. However, suppliers' shipment sentiment edged down compared to the previous day. Ultimately, actual transaction prices in the central China market ranged between parity and a discount of 10 yuan to the central China price. Today, the central China market shipment sentiment index was 2.83, unchanged MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.26, unchanged MoM. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption areas fell 0.35 MoM today, with destocking originating from Guangdong and Wuxi.

[SMM Aluminum Alloy Daily Review] Futures side, the most-traded aluminum alloy 2607 futures contract opened at 23,255 yuan/mt today before briefly rising to 23,380 yuan/mt, then gradually pulled back under pressure. The decline widened further in the afternoon session, with the intraday low touching 22,945 yuan/mt. Although there was a slight recovery near the close, it ultimately settled at 23,050 yuan/mt, down 405 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, a drop of 1.73%. Spot side, some enterprises followed with slight price cuts driven by weakening aluminum prices, while others maintained stable pricing and adopted a wait-and-see approach due to elevated costs and tight compliant supply sources. Supply-demand structure perspective, demand side performance remained mediocre, suppressing pr

[Macro Tailwinds and Inventory Pressure Coexist, Limiting Upside Room for Aluminum Prices] Current macro tailwinds are being released in a concentrated manner, the global rigid supply gap for aluminum has been confirmed, and China’s aluminum ingot inventory has entered initial destocking. Multiple positive factors are providing support for aluminum prices. However, inventory at high levels in China remains the core factor suppressing a sharp price surge. In addition, spot market trading has been relatively weak, and expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes this year have been heating up, further limiting upside room for aluminum prices. Going forward, attention should be paid to whether China’s aluminum ingot inventory can maintain sustained destocking, thereby easing the pressure that inventory at high levels exerts on aluminum prices.

[SMM Aluminum Price Weekly Review: Positive Factors Still Provide Support, but Upside Room for Aluminum Prices Remains Limited]

SMM May 14: During the morning session, the SHFE aluminum 2606 contract fluctuated upward, with the overall price center moving higher than the previous trading day. Today, market procurement sentiment remained weak, while seller shipments sentiment rose due to higher aluminum prices. Mainstream spot quotes ranged from SMMA00 minus 10 yuan/mt to minus 20 yuan/mt. Today, the east China market shipments sentiment index was 3 (up 0.04 MoM), and the procurement sentiment index was 2.8 (down 0.06 MoM). Aluminum prices rose significantly during last night's night session, and the central China market's initial premiums were low today. Although prices continued to decline after the opening, transaction price premiums remained low and showed a continued downward trend, affected by insufficient invoice quotas and high aluminum prices suppressing downstream procurement sentiment. Ultimately, the actual transaction price range in the central China market was around 20 to 50 yuan discount to the central China price. Today, the central China market shipments sentiment index was 2.83 (up 0.01 MoM), and the procurement sentiment index was 2.26 (down 0.02 MoM). Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption areas fell 0.15 MoM today, with destocking originating from Guangdong and Wuxi.

[Ex-China Supply Disruptions Combined with Macro Recovery Strengthen Upside Momentum for Aluminum Prices] The risk of ex-China aluminum supply disruptions has not yet subsided, and the ex-China aluminum ingot supply-demand gap will continue to provide support for aluminum prices. Meanwhile, tightened invoicing has restricted aluminum ingot spot liquidity, and a weakening spot market will limit upside room for domestic aluminum prices. However, since April, China's export orders have remained positive, and combined with recent macro tailwinds, a turning point in China's social inventory is expected to emerge, boosting upside momentum for aluminum prices.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Aluminum Alloy Futures Fluctuated Higher in Night Session, Cost Support Kept Short-Term Bias to the Upside] The most-traded aluminum alloy 2607 contract opened higher overnight and then fluctuated upward. It opened at 23,605 yuan/mt in the night session, reaching a high of 23,680 yuan/mt and a low of 23,480 yuan/mt. It closed at 23,595 yuan/mt in the night session, up 115 yuan/mt or 0.49% from the previous trading day.

SMM May 13: SHFE aluminum 2606 contract fluctuated upward in the morning session, with the overall price center rising compared to the previous trading day. Some sellers held prices firm today. End-users mainly made just-in-time procurement, and traders' buying sentiment improved. The mainstream spot cargo quotations ranged from SMM A00 aluminum average price to SMM A00 minus 10 yuan/mt. The shipment sentiment index in east China was 2.96 today, up 0.10 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.86, up 0.06 MoM. The overall trading atmosphere in the central China market remained sluggish today. Aluminum prices rebounded slightly, and buying sentiment was basically flat compared to the previous day. Insufficient invoice quotas and limited orders continued to suppress buying sentiment of downstream processing enterprises. The actual transaction price range in the central China market remained relatively stable, hovering between parity and a discount of 10 yuan to the central China price. The shipment sentiment index in central China was 2.82 today, flat MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.28, flat MoM. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption areas fell 0.45 MoM today, with all three regions showing a destocking trend.

[Macro Policy and Tug-of-War Between Sellers and Buyers: Aluminum Prices Move Sideways] The risk of supply disruptions to aluminum outside China has not yet subsided, and there remains a supply gap in ex-China aluminum, with the strong LME market transmitting to China and providing support for aluminum prices. However, the continuation of inventory buildup exceeding expectations in China will weigh on domestic aluminum prices. Meanwhile, tightened invoicing regulations may lead to structural tightness in spot cargo, and the weakening spot market further limits the upside room for domestic aluminum prices. Close attention should be paid to the potential turning point in China's social inventory, which could drive a rebound and rise in aluminum prices.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Tightening Supply Sources Combined with Pullback in Imports, Tight Aluminum Scrap Circulation Underpins Prices] Aluminum alloy 2607 in the night session exhibited an overall trend of "retreat after rapid rise, hover at lows." From the intraday perspective...