Vientiane recently marked a major milestone in China-Laos green industrial cooperation—Krittaphong Group Co., Ltd. and CGN Energy Technology (Laos) Co., Ltd., together with the Ministry of Industry and Commerce of Laos and Oudomxay Province, officially signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) for the Oudomxay AI Green Electricity Eco-Aluminum Industrial Park Project. Tang Danzhong, Deputy General Manager of Guangxi Investment Group, and Lin Rui, Chairman of Electricite du Laos Transmission Company Limited (EDL-T), attended the signing ceremony as witnesses, fully demonstrating all parties’ firm confidence in and full support for the project’s smooth implementation. The project will center on 500,000 mt of aluminum capacity, alongside the supporting development of a 2 million kW clean energy base, and is expected to join hands with Guangxi Investment Group, a core industrial investor, to build a complete eco-industrial base for the entire aluminum industry chain.

This project effectively fills the gap in Nanning’s aluminum industry chain. After completion and commissioning, it will provide strong supporting capacity for industries in Nanning such as NEVs and parts, meeting local industrial development demand for aluminum ingots. The implementation of Guangxi Long’an Hetai New Materials Co., Ltd.’s green new materials industry chain production site project is a critical step in the development of Long’an’s new materials industry. The project takes green development as its core strategy, with development oriented toward achieving efficient resource utilization and ultra-low pollutant emissions, and will build a circular economy industrial park featuring a “cement plant—alumina—combined heat and power—cement plant” cycle.

SMM March 2nd Report: On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel launched a large-scale military strike on Iran, which promptly announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East escalated sharply and fell into sustained turmoil. As a critical "chokepoint" for global energy transportation, the Strait of Hormuz handles about 30% of global seaborne oil trade. Its blockade directly led to a severe physical disruption in the global energy supply chain, causing international oil prices to surge dramatically, with shipping costs and insurance fees skyrocketing, significantly increasing uncertainty in the energy market. As a key raw material for prebaked anodes used in aluminum production, petcoke is expected to enter a state of supply tightens, cost surges, and quality disturbances under the influence of the geopolitical situation. This change will directly impact the stability of China's petcoke import system, while also substantially raising domestic prebaked anode production costs, creating a chain reaction in the downstream aluminum industry. In terms of the overall distribution of import sources, in 2025, regions and countries with high petcoke import dependency in China showed a tiered characteristic. The first tier, centered around the US and Russia, saw the US accounting for 31%, making it the largest source of petcoke imports for China; Russia followed closely with 17%, together contributing nearly half of the total imports. The second tier was the Middle East, collectively accounting for 15%, serving as an important supplementary segment for China's petcoke imports. Other import sources were more dispersed, with Canada and Brazil each at 5%, and Argentina, Colombia, and Taiwan, China, each at 4%. This diversification of smaller sources enriched China's petcoke import supply system, but the influence of individual entities remained relatively limited. Notably, as a key supplementary sector for China's petcoke imports, the highly concentrated internal supply structure of the Middle East became the core reason for the impact of the deteriorating geopolitical situation on China's import market. In detail, the supply landscape of the Middle East exhibited a "dominance by one, supplemented by a few" feature: Saudi Arabia, with a 64% share, held an absolute dominant position, being the core exporter of petcoke from the Middle East to China; Oman ranked second with 22%; Kuwait accounted for 12%, with other regions providing only minor supplements. In terms of imported product specifications, petcoke from the Middle East mainly consisted of medium- to high-sulfur varieties, with different source countries focusing on specific types: petcoke from Saudi Arabia primarily included high-sulfur sponge coke and high-sulfur shot coke, from Oman mainly shot coke, and from Kuwait mainly medium-sulfur sponge coke. These types of petcoke are primarily used for blending in the production of prebaked anodes, serving as a crucial raw material supplement for the domestic prebaked anode industry. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has a multi-dimensional impact on the petroleum coke market: On one hand, the blockade leads to a complete halt in the export of Middle Eastern petroleum coke, significantly reducing the international circulation of petroleum coke. The arrival cycle for petroleum coke imported by China from the Middle East is notably extended, directly exacerbating the tightness of domestic import supply. On the other hand, some refineries in the region are affected by military conflicts, limiting their production activities and further contracting the overall supply of petroleum coke, creating a dual squeeze on the supply side. Meanwhile, the surge in international oil prices drives up the production costs of petroleum coke from refinery delayed coking units, providing a solid bottom support for petroleum coke prices. Coupled with the sharp rise in international shipping freight and war risk insurance premiums, these factors collectively push petroleum coke prices into a more likely to rise than fall trajectory. In summary, this geopolitical conflict in the Middle East is a significant external shock to the 2026 petroleum coke-prebaked anode-aluminum industry chain. The triple pressures of supply tightening, cost surges, and quality disruptions will continue to be passed down: Petroleum coke prices will keep rising, pushing up the production costs of prebaked anodes, which in turn will elevate the production costs of aluminum. If the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz persists, the entire industry chain will gradually enter a phase characterized by high costs, low inventory, and strong fluctuations. Ensuring supply chain security and controlling enterprise costs will become the core challenges facing the industry.

[Shanghai aluminum futures consolidated narrowly during the night session, with slow downstream resumption of work leading to volatile aluminum prices] On the fundamentals, seasonal pressure remains prominent. On the supply side, new aluminum projects in the domestic market are steadily ramping up production, while the proportion of liquid aluminum conversion remains temporarily low. On the demand side, post-holiday operating rates of downstream processing materials show a steady recovery pace. However, under the influence of seasonal supply exceeding demand and some cargo backlog at railway stations, it is expected that the peak inventory of aluminum ingots domestically after the holiday will exceed 1.35 million mt, hitting a new high in nearly five years, which will be an important factor suppressing price rises. Overall, in the short term, Shanghai aluminum futures will continue a volatile pattern.

In summary, during the 2026 Chinese New Year period, the five segments of the aluminum industry chain exhibited differentiated operational trends.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: AI Concerns Triggered a Broad Decline in Risk Assets, Aluminum Prices Under Pressure and in the Doldrums] Overall, the bullish sentiment in the nonferrous metals market cooled down, coupled with high inventory pressure on the fundamentals, aluminum prices were in the doldrums this week. During the Chinese New Year holiday, the domestic market was closed, while the LME market continued trading. Be cautious of fluctuations in the macro market and the LME market during the holiday, which may cause volatility in aluminum prices after the holiday.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: Overall Warm Macro Front Contends with Inventory Buildup Reality, Aluminum Prices Under Pressure and Fluctuating in the Short Term] In summary, aluminum prices are expected to continue their fluctuating trend under pressure in the short term, constrained above by the reality of inventory buildup and supported below by macro expectations. They are anticipated to remain in the doldrums with limited room for a rebound.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Overnight Futures Slightly Lower, Spot Prices Hold Steady Amid Wait-and-See Attitude] On Wednesday, the A00 aluminum price edged down by 30 yuan/mt to 23,260 yuan/mt compared with the previous trading day, while the SMM ADC12 price remained stable at 23,650 yuan/mt. As the Chinese New Year approaches, upstream and downstream enterprises in the secondary aluminum industry chain have entered a concentrated holiday period, leading to a noticeable decline in market liquidity. Actual transactions continue to be sluggish, with spot quotations largely making minor adjustments around the futures market.

[SMM Daily Review] Futures side, the most-traded aluminum alloy 2604 contract first fell then rose today. It hit bottom at 22,080 yuan/mt in the morning session and gradually rebounded, fluctuating at highs and consolidating in the afternoon, finally closing at 22,205 yuan/mt, up 70 yuan/mt or 0.32% from the previous close, with bulls mainly increasing positions. Spot market side, A00 aluminum price edged down 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day to 23,260 yuan/mt, while SMM ADC12 price held steady at 23,650 yuan/mt. As the Chinese New Year approached, upstream and downstream enterprises in the secondary aluminum industry chain entered a concentrated holiday period, market liquidity significantly decreased, actual transactions remained sluggish, and spot quotations mostly adjusted slig

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: ADC12 Futures Fluctuated Rangebound Overnight, Market Trading Turned More Sluggish] On Tuesday, SMM ADC12 prices held steady at 23,650 yuan/mt. As the Chinese New Year approaches, upstream and downstream enterprises in the secondary aluminum industry chain have entered a concentrated holiday period, leading to a noticeable decline in market liquidity. Actual transactions remained sluggish, with spot aluminum quotes mostly adjusting slightly around the futures.