SMM News, March 31， In Q1 2026, amid macro tailwinds, expectations of a supply gap, and successive geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, aluminum prices repeatedly hit new highs. The quarterly average SMM A00 aluminum price reached 24,028 yuan/mt, up 17.5% YoY; the quarterly average closing price of the LME aluminum 3M contract at 15:00 Beijing time reached $3,196/mt, up 21.8% YoY. High prices suppressed downstream consumption: At the end of 2025, SMM expected China’s primary aluminum consumption growth in 2026 to be 2.0%; as of February, that growth rate had fallen to 1.1%. As a result, the proportion of liquid aluminum in the aluminum industry declined significantly, and aluminum social inventory hit a nearly three-year high. As of March 31, the inflection point in China’s aluminum social inventory was still unclear, while the absolute inventory level had already entered the upper range of SMM’s previous forecast of 1.35-1.4 million mt. However, affected by geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, aluminum supply and demand were both weak, fundamental risks increased, and prices saw wild swings. Under the impact of high prices, aluminum ingot inventory may continue to build further. According to SMM, as of the end of March, some aluminum ingots in certain regions were still backlogged at rail platforms and outside warehouses. High prices also accelerated supply growth: As of the end of Q1, average profits in China’s aluminum industry exceeded 8,000 yuan/mt. Stimulated by high profits, China’s aluminum supply growth is expected to exceed expectations. At the end of 2025, SMM expected China’s aluminum supply growth in 2026 to reach 1.7%; as of the end of Q1 2026, SMM expected that growth rate had risen to 1.9%. Outside China, supply growth was also boosted by high prices: 1) A smelter in Spain had originally planned to resume full production by 2026, and according to foreign media reports in March, it had already resumed to 90% of operating load; 2) In October 2025, an Icelandic smelter cut production on one line due to equipment failure. It had originally planned to resume production in September-October 2026, but has now moved the plan forward to start by the end of April; 3) At the end of 2025, expectations were that Indonesia’s operating aluminum capacity would reach 2 million mt by the end of 2026; that expectation has now been raised to 2.2-2.5 million mt. Q2 Outlook: At present, one of the decisive factors for global aluminum fundamentals and price trends is the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. SMM analysis showed that outside China, aluminum capacity that had already cut production or faced substantial production reduction risk exceeded 3 million mt. If subsequent production cuts from this portion of capacity are confirmed, outside China aluminum supply is expected to maintain negative YoY growth for an extended period, and global aluminum fundamentals are expected to face a large gap, with the gap outside China far exceeding that in China. In this case, aluminum prices in and outside China are expected to rise sharply again, with overseas prices expected to outperform domestic prices. China’s net aluminum imports are expected to decline, while exports from downstream aluminum plants are expected to increase. However, if actual production cuts come in below expectations, while consumption sees a marked reduction due to factors such as energy and inflation, the upward move in aluminum prices may face insufficient momentum. At present, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East are disrupting the global aluminum supply-demand pattern, and SMM will continue to follow related developments.

PT Inalum, Indonesia's state-owned aluminum giant, called on the government to suspend the construction of new alumina and aluminum plants on Tuesday, citing concerns about oversupply and pressure on the country's bauxite reserves. Melati Sarnita, CEO of Inalum, pointed out that Inalum is concerned that the aluminum industry will face similar problems to the nickel industry after rapid growth, such as oversupply affecting global prices and environmental issues. Inalum cited market data to estimate that once all the alumina projects under construction start operating, Indonesia's alumina capacity will increase from the current about 9 million tons to 29.8 million tons. Melati said that once all projects are completed, the original aluminum capacity is expected to increase from the current

SMM News, March 31 According to SMM data, the average tax-inclusive full cost of domestic aluminum industry in March 2026 rose 0.5% MoM and fell 5.7% YoY, mainly due to a slight rebound in alumina raw material costs during the period. In March, Middle East production cuts pushed up aluminum prices in and outside China. The SMM A00 monthly average spot price (February 26-March 25) rose 2.9% MoM, and aluminum profit margins expanded to 8,316 yuan/mt. Based on monthly average price calculations, 100% of China’s operating aluminum capacity was profitable in March. From the cost breakdown side: Alumina raw materials : According to SMM data, the monthly average of the SMM alumina index in March was 2,685 yuan/mt (January 26-February 25), up 2.4% MoM. During the month, total operating alumina capacity was basically stable, but the Middle East geopolitical conflict raised ocean freight rates for alumina and bauxite, and domestic alumina costs are expected to move higher. Futures prices drove spot prices higher, lifting the monthly average alumina price. Entering April, the upward momentum in spot alumina prices at month-end March appeared slightly insufficient. Some new projects are expected to come online in April or ramp up operating capacity, but as the base price at the beginning of the month was already at a high level, alumina raw material costs in April are expected to post a slight increase. Auxiliary materials market : In March, both prebaked anode and fluoride salt prices pulled back, lowering aluminum auxiliary material costs. Entering April, the Middle East geopolitical conflict raised international oil prices, and higher costs continued to push up petroleum coke prices, which in turn supported higher prebaked anode prices. The April prebaked anode tender price at a large aluminum plant in Shandong rose 300 yuan/mt MoM; for aluminum fluoride, prices are also expected to rise significantly in April due to higher raw material costs. Overall, auxiliary material costs are expected to increase significantly in April. Electricity prices : Electricity prices were generally stable in March. Entering April, power prices are expected to remain broadly stable, and aluminum power costs are expected to hold steady. Overall, in March 2026, SMM expected the weighted average tax-inclusive full cost of dometstic aluminum industry to rise slightly; in April, it was expected to increase significantly MoM, with the average at around 16,150-16,550 yuan/mt.

[SMM Flash] SMM data showed that the PMI of the secondary aluminum industry in March rebounded sharply by 40.9 percentage points MoM to 68.8, returning above the 50 mark. In March, enterprises basically resumed normal production, and downstream demand gradually recovered. Both the production and new orders of secondary aluminum enterprises in March increased significantly from February. In April, orders for secondary aluminum are expected to weaken, and the industry PMI is expected to pull back below the 50 mark.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: In March, the Secondary Aluminum Industry PMI Rebounded Sharply Into Expansion Territory, and Downward Pressure Remained in April] Overnight, the aluminum alloy 2605 contract price first fell and then rose, showing an overall fluctuating upward trend. After the opening, the price quickly dipped to an intraday low of 23,320 yuan/mt, then gradually stabilized and rebounded, fluctuating upward to a high of 23,610 yuan/mt. It pulled back slightly late in the session and finally closed at 23,585 yuan/mt, down 45 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, a decline of 0.19%.

In March, China’s composite PMI for aluminum processing registered 65.6%, rebounding strongly above the 50 mark.

On March 26, Dianjiang County held a signing event for investment promotion projects in Q1 2026, with a total of 28 projects signed and an agreed amount of 8.12 billion yuan. Among them, the project for the annual production of 50,000 mt of secondary aluminum and aluminum products processing planned to build 10 production lines for aluminum smelting and deep processing. After completion and commissioning, it could achieve an annual output value of 1.25 billion yuan and tax revenue of more than 10 million yuan.

On March 26, the 580,000 mt aluminum construction project of Wanji Aluminum Industry (Xinjiang) Co., Ltd. commenced. It is understood that the project adopts an EPC model integrating design, procurement, and construction, with a total investment of approximately 4.595 billion yuan, and is expected to be completed and commissioned in July 2027. Upon completion, the project will become a modern aluminum production site integrating green production, intelligent management and control, and full-chain supporting facilities, improving the entire industry chain from alumina and aluminum to deep aluminum processing.

This week, the weekly operating rate of leading downstream aluminum processing enterprises in China rebounded 1.1 percentage points MoM to 64%.

Capacity side, according to incomplete statistics, China’s alkaline electrolyzer market remained at 43.77 GW, and the PEM electrolyzer market remained at 2.7 GW, with no new capacity added. No offline delivery information was available this week. Project-related updates: Guohua (Ningxia) New Energy Co., Ltd.: A price inquiry procurement was issued for the pre-feasibility study report preparation service for the Guohua Ningxia 100,000-mt Green Hydrogen Energy Supply Base Project (chemical section). It was understood that the Ningdong water electrolysis hydrogen production project of Guohua Ningxia had already put into operation a scale of 20,000 Nm³/h, with 6,000 Nm³/h under construction. Datang Inner Mongolia Duolun Coal Chemical Co., Ltd.: An inquiry-based procurement was launched for the feasibility study and green methanol certification consulting technical services for the CNCEC Duolun Coal Chemical coal-based process biomass co-firing coupled with green electricity green methanol production project. It was understood that the Datang Duolun 150,000-kW wind and solar power hydrogen production integrated demonstration project was China’s first medium-to-large-scale technology demonstration project for off-grid wind and solar power hydrogen production deeply coupled with coal chemical engineering. It was invested in and constructed by Datang Duolun Ruiyuan New Energy Co., Ltd., with a total investment of approximately 1.3 billion yuan. Construction officially began in November 2023, hydrogen was successfully produced on December 29, 2024, and it was formally connected to grid and put into operation on January 17, 2025. Shaanxi Construction Installation Group Co., Ltd.: The Guyang-Baiyun Obo gas transmission pipeline project, undertaken by Shaanxi Construction Installation Group, reached a major milestone, with its Guyang initial station and valve chamber having successfully passed completion acceptance. It was reported that the gas transmission pipeline project has a 20% hydrogen blending transmission capacity and is a key planned construction project under the “county-to-county coverage in western Inner Mongolia” initiative in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region’s 14th Five-Year Plan for oil and gas development. The pipeline has a total length of 125 km, starting from the Guyang initial station and generally running from south to north, successively passing through Guyang County, Darhan Muminggan Banner, and the Baiyun Obo mining district in Baotou City, and ultimately reaching Barun Industrial Park. Jiamusi Hanya New Energy Co., Ltd.: The Jiamusi Hanya wind power hydrogen production synthetic green methanol integrated project was filed. The project is located in Heilongjiang Province, with a total investment of 4 billion yuan. Construction scale and contents: mainly the construction of a 300,000-mt green methanol production unit and a thermal energy storage unit, with a planned land area of approximately 350,000 m². Windey Energy Technology Group Co., Ltd.: The list of winning candidates was announced for the biomass gasification process package and technical services project for the first-phase Handan Biomass Green Methanol Project. The top-ranked winning candidate was East China Engineering Science and Technology Co., Ltd. It was understood that East China Engineering has extensive experience in the gasification field, with experience in the design, construction, EPC general contracting, commissioning, and operation of more than 100 gasifiers, covering various mainstream processes such as fixed bed, fluidized bed, and entrained-flow bed. Zhongqing Xinneng (Baotou) Equipment Co., Ltd.: The annual production project for 100,000 hydrogen storage cylinders for hydrogen two-wheelers was filed. The project is located in Kundulun District, Baotou City, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. It plans to build a production line with an annual capacity of 100,000 hydrogen storage cylinders for hydrogen two-wheelers, including production workshop renovation and supporting utilities. Annual output value will reach 100 million yuan. The planned construction period is from April 2026 to September 2026. Shenneng North (Otog Banner) Energy Co., Ltd.: The change to the 30 MW-class pure hydrogen gas turbine hydrogen energy storage demonstration project under the Otog Banner integrated wind and solar power hydrogen production and green ammonia synthesis project was filed. After the change, the project site is located in the eastern project area of the Ordos Otog Economic Development Zone, within Shenneng's water electrolysis hydrogen production station in Ordos City, Otog Banner, bounded to the north by the green hydrogen-to-green ammonia project under the Otog Banner integrated wind and solar power hydrogen production and green ammonia synthesis project, to the east by Jingsan Street, to the west by Jinger Street, and to the south by Weisi Road. Construction scale and content: the project covers an area of 500 sq m, of which the hydrogen gas turbine occupies 300 sq m. As a hydrogen energy storage demonstration project, it includes one 30 MW pure hydrogen gas turbine, generator, hydrogen storage equipment, and supporting facilities. Through wind and solar power generation and water electrolysis for hydrogen production, the project has a total hydrogen storage capacity of 360,000 Nm³, an effective hydrogen storage volume of 270,000 Nm³, and is equipped with 12 spherical hydrogen storage tanks, each with a water capacity of 1,875 m³. Jiyuan (Siping) Green Energy Co., Ltd.: The EPC tender for the hydrogen production works of the SPIC Green Energy Lishu wind and solar power hydrogen production, biomass-coupled green methanol project was released. It is understood that the project is located in the chemical park of the Siping New-type Industrialized Economic Development Zone, Lishu County, Siping City, Jilin Province. It adopts a green hydrogen coupled with biomass gasification process to synthesize 197,200 mt/year of methanol, started construction in August 2025, and is expected to be commissioned in September 2027. The project includes three hydrogen production workshops. Workshops No. 1 and No. 2 each are arranged with 12 sets of 1,000 Nm³/h alkaline electrolytic hydrogen production electrolyzers plus three sets of 4,000 Nm³/h hydrogen purification units; Workshop No. 3 is arranged with four sets of 1,000 Nm³/h alkaline electrolytic hydrogen production electrolyzers plus one set of 4,000 Nm³/h gas-liquid separation unit, among others. Sinopec Sales Co., Ltd. Tibet Petroleum Branch : The tender notice for Section I of the general construction contracting project for the Shannan hydrogen-oxygen combined supply project was released. The construction site is in Naidong District, Shannan City, Tibet Autonomous Region; the planned construction period is 180 days; the estimated contract value for the section is 27.23 million yuan (tax included); the hydrogen production portion of the section tender includes an IGBT rectifier and control system skid, hydrogen production skid, oxygen purification unit, pure water machine and chiller unit skid, and related supporting facilities, while the hydrogen refueling portion includes a 35 MPa dual-nozzle hydrogen dispenser, 45 MPa hydrogen compressor skid, 45 MPa hydrogen storage cylinder bank, and sequence control panel. Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Co., Ltd.: It held a signing ceremony at Ming Yang Group headquarters for the hydrogen-fueled gas turbine complete-unit R&D and manufacturing project with the People's Government of Hudai Town, Binhu District, Wuxi City, Jiangsu Province, with both parties formally reaching a strategic cooperation agreement. Sichuan Zhongke Hydrogen Energy Technology Co., Ltd. : First Public Notice of Environmental Impact Assessment Information for Phase II of the Integrated Energy Station Project Featuring Hydropower, Wind and Solar Power, Hydrogen, and Natural Gas Multi-Energy Complementarity. According to the document, Phase II of the integrated energy station project featuring hydropower, wind and solar power, hydrogen, and natural gas multi-energy complementarity is located in Nanchong High-tech Zone, with Sichuan Zhongke Hydrogen Energy Technology Co., Ltd. as the project developer. It will build an integrated hydrogen production and refueling station, along with supporting public utility facilities, to realise the hydrogen refueling function of the integrated energy station for hydrogen-powered vehicles, and will also build one hydrogen energy industry R&D production site. GRINM Engineering Institute Co., Ltd. : The new materials pilot platform in Huairou Science City completed final acceptance upon completion, and four key pilot lines, including solid-state hydrogen storage and ceramic co-firing materials, entered the stage of commissioning and line integration. Among them, the total investment in the solid-state hydrogen storage project is 14.5 million yuan, and the total investment in the ceramic co-firing materials project is 12 million yuan, which will support the commercialisation of new material achievements and the industrialisation of hydrogen energy and key electronic materials. Policy Review​ 1. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Finance, and the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) issued a notice on carrying out pilot work for the comprehensive application of hydrogen energy. The document states that by 2030, hydrogen energy in city clusters is expected to achieve large-scale application across diverse fields, and the average price of hydrogen for end-use is expected to fall below 25 yuan/kg, with efforts to reduce it to around 15 yuan/kg in certain advantaged regions; national fuel cell vehicle ownership is expected to double from the 2025 level, with efforts to reach 100,000 units. Through the expansion of application scale, it will promote innovative breakthroughs in hydrogen energy application technologies, processes, and equipment, realise iterative upgrades of fuel cells, electrolyzers, storage and transportation devices, and materials, and promote hydrogen energy as a new economic growth driver to support a comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development. 2. The People's Government of Hunan Province issued the Hunan Province 2026 Plan for National Economic and Social Development. The document states that efforts will be made to advance the circular economy and cleaner production and build a number of zero-carbon parks and zero-carbon factories. It is expected to accelerate the green and low-carbon transformation of the energy system, optimise the management of new energy project pipelines, and speed up the construction of key wind and solar power projects. It will expand green energy consumption scenarios and implement a three-year doubling plan for the service capacity of charging facilities. It will also actively develop the hydrogen energy industry and expand the scale of natural gas utilisation. 3. With the approval of the National Energy Administration, the Standardization Technical Committee for Hydrogen Energy in the Energy Industry was established in Beijing. The establishment of this committee was intended to improve the industry standards system, lead technological innovation, and regulate market order. Enterprise Developments Haida Qingneng Ship (Dalian) Co., Ltd.: The nation's first inland 64-TEU hydrogen fuel cell-powered container vessel, Dongfang Qinggang, for which it supplied the powertrain, successfully completed its first long-distance trial voyage. The entire system operated stably, the navigation performance was excellent, and the trial voyage was a complete success. Hydrogen Power (Beijing) Technology Services Co., Ltd.: 100 hydrogen-powered refrigerated trucks were officially delivered to Hydrogen Cheng Times and will be operated by Hydrogen Power Technology as the agent. Rongcheng New Energy Group: Successfully delivered 50 hydrogen-powered heavy trucks to Cangzhou Huagang International Logistics Co., Ltd. This batch of vehicles will be put into service on the transport route from Huanghua Port to the Shandong Lubei Aluminum Industry Base. CSSC Engine Co., Ltd.: Its WinGD6X72DF-A-1.0 ammonia-fueled low-speed engine successfully passed functional integration approval and bench testing, and was successfully delivered in Qingdao. It is understood that this was the first ammonia-fueled marine engine in China to be formally delivered as a commercial product. Aerospace Engineering Company: Signed contracts for two major green hydrogen engineering projects in succession, namely the hydrogen refueling station water electrolysis hydrogen production project of Zhongqing Energy Development (Shandong) Co., Ltd., and the electrolytic hydrogen production unit project for the Inner Mongolia Fenglü green hydrogen-coupled coal-to-olefins project. For these two projects, Aerospace Engineering Company will provide a total of 16 sets of HTJSDJ-1000/1.6 alkaline electrolyzers, together with supporting post-processing systems and utility engineering equipment, and will be responsible for engineering design. This cooperation marked Aerospace Engineering Company's simultaneous breakthroughs in the two major fields of green transportation and green hydrogen chemicals. Qinghang Times (Shenzhen) Technology Co., Ltd. : Qinghang Times was established on January 5, 2026, with a registered capital of 1 million yuan and legal representative He Rongjie. Founded by a Tsinghua University master's and doctoral team, it received support from Tsinghua entrepreneurship and innovation platforms including Tsinghua i-Space and Tsinghua Chuang+, and was selected for the Sci-Tech Innovation Light "Future Tech Innovators Program." With a technical solution combining liquid hydrogen storage and a high-temperature PEM hydrogen-electric coupling system, it increases aircraft driving range by more than 10 times and payload capacity by 2-3 times. Recently, it completed seed-round financing of several million yuan, with the investor undisclosed. Shenzhen Hydrogen Zhi Energy Co., Ltd.: Completed A+ round financing, with Shenzhen Energy Investment as the investor. Anhui Mashui New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. : Anhui Mashui Technology completed A-round financing of over 100 million yuan, led by NIO Capital. This round of funding will be used primarily to fulfill large orders, increase R&D reserves, support new factory construction, and cover daily operations, so as to drive the integration and upgrading of the industry chain. China Energy Engineering Corporation Research Institute: The kick-off meeting for the international standard High-Pressure Liquid Hydrogen Pump for Hydrogen Refueling Stations, led and submitted by the Low-Carbon Institute, was held online. Since the standard was approved for project initiation in November last year, this meeting clarified the advancement plan and technical roadmap, bringing together 20 experts from China, the United States, Germany, France, Russia, Japan, and the European Industrial Gases Association, who reached consensus on core issues such as the standard’s scope and application scenarios, thereby laying a solid foundation for the high-quality and timely delivery of the standard. Jiangsu Guofu Hydrogen Energy Equipment Co., Ltd. : A delegation from Thailand’s water, electricity, and related institutions came to China for exchanges on the new energy industry and made a special trip to Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu, to visit the rooftop PV hydrogen production project jointly developed by Zonergy and Guofu Hydrogen Energy. It was understood that the project relied on a distributed PV system installed on factory rooftops and used PV power generation to provide clean and stable electricity for enterprise production and energy applications, balancing efficient energy utilization with green development; at the same time, it integrated hydrogen energy application scenarios and was equipped with an ESS to ensure a stable energy supply for hydrogen production. It is a leading distributed PV hydrogen production demonstration project in China by scale, showcasing China’s advanced achievements in the integrated development of PV and hydrogen energy. Beijing SinoHytec Co., Ltd.: Signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Haitai Solar and the Hebei Hydrogen Energy Society, relying on the National Energy Administration’s first batch of hydrogen energy pilot policies and centering on the Zhangjiakou-Chengde-Tangshan hydrogen energy regional pilot to advance the deep integration of “government, industry, academia, research, and application.” The three parties will focus on the Kangbao-Caofeidian long-distance hydrogen pipeline with annual hydrogen transmission capacity of 1.55 million mt, creating a “hydrogen production in Zhangjiakou and Chengde, application in Tangshan” model. Haitai Solar will provide SinoHytec with a stable hydrogen supply and storage and transportation services, addressing the industry’s high storage and transportation costs and supporting high-quality regional hydrogen energy development and the implementation of the “dual carbon” goals. The Sixth Academy of China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation: Released four new hydrogen energy products in Beijing, including an onboard liquid hydrogen system, liquid hydrogen refueling equipment, a liquid hydrogen tank container, and an alkaline electrolyzer, and also released a blue book on the hydrogen energy industry to help build the hydrogen energy industry ecosystem. Beijing Hydrosys Technology Co., Ltd.: Its self-developed hydraulic-driven hydrogen compressor underwent rigorous assessment and passed EU CE certification. Patent Applications 1. Shanghai Institute of Ceramics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (China) disclosed patent CN2025110028 and developed a ceramic-based anion exchange membrane, with a laboratory-tested service life of up to 80,000 hours. 2. Johnson Matthey (UK) filed patent WO2025109876, disclosing an Fe-Ni-Mo ternary non-precious metal catalyst formulation with activity close to that of platinum-based materials. Technology Footprint/Technical Specifications 1. A joint team from Xi’an Jiaotong University and Peking University jointly conducted R&D on a new-type osmium-based catalyst, significantly improving the efficiency and economics of hydrogen production via AEM water electrolysis and supporting the large-scale deployment of low-cost green hydrogen. 2. Johnson Matthey and Syensqo achieved efficient recycling and reuse of platinum group metals and ionomers in PEM fuel cells and electrolyzers, significantly reducing the carbon footprint. 3. Relevant research teams from the School of Electrical Engineering at Xi’an Jiaotong University and the State Key Laboratory of Electrical Materials and Electrical Insulation successfully developed the Ru/Ti3C2Ox@NF bifunctional electrocatalyst for seawater electrolysis. 4. The group standard Technical Specification for Hydrogen Production by Coupled Electrolysis with Wind and Solar Power, PV+ESS, and Green Electricity (No. T/CIEP 0272—2025) was released and implemented by the China Industrial Environmental Protection Promotion Association. Zhongneng Dayou Energy Technology Co., Ltd. successfully developed a 100 kW-class PEM electrolyzer hydrogen production multi-field coupling test device. 5. GKN Powder Metallurgy announced that it has developed a next-generation high performance, high-porosity, high-purity porous transport layer (HP-PTL) for proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolysis.