[SHFE and LME Aluminum Indicators Strengthen Across the Board, Geopolitical Risks Dominate Short-Term Market] Overall, from a macro perspective, risks of strait transit restrictions and conflict escalation resonated with fundamental supply-side hard damage and low global inventory, jointly providing strong bottom support for aluminum prices. However, weak interest rate cut expectations, China's aluminum ingot inventory buildup exceeding expectations, and adverse expectations on consumption and inflation from recent high fluctuations in oil prices all notably dragged on the upside room for aluminum prices. In the short term, aluminum prices fluctuated at highs.

[Solid Geopolitical Support, Aluminum Prices Fluctuate at Highs] Overall, from a macro perspective, restricted strait transit and risks of conflict escalation resonated with fundamental supply-side hard damage and low global inventory, jointly providing strong bottom support for aluminum prices. However, weak interest rate cut expectations, above-expectation aluminum ingot inventory buildup in China, and adverse expectations on consumption and inflation driven by recent high fluctuations in oil prices all notably weighed on the upside room for aluminum prices. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at highs.

[SMM Aluminum Price Weekly Review: Middle East Geopolitical Tensions Remain Uncertain, Aluminum Prices Expected to Fluctuate at Highs in the Short Term]

[Ceasefire Unlikely to Resolve Supply Weakness; Aluminum Prices Retain Strong Support at High Levels] Overall, the two-week ceasefire news was unable to reverse the firm pattern underpinned by substantive supply damage and low inventory. Expectations of tangible supply contraction triggered by attacks on Middle Eastern aluminum smelters, combined with low global inventory and the recovery of peak-season demand in China, will provide strong upward momentum for aluminum prices. In the near term, aluminum prices are expected to hold up well.

[Concerns Over Supply Shortfalls Triggered by Attacks on Middle Eastern Aluminum Plants Give Aluminum Prices Strong Upward Momentum] Overall, expectations of a substantive supply contraction triggered by attacks on Middle Eastern aluminum plants, combined with low global inventory and a recovery in peak-season demand in China, will provide strong upward momentum for aluminum prices. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to break out of their trading range and hold up well.

Overall, cost support remained strong, supply tightened while demand stayed stable. As tender prices became clear, aluminum fluoride prices were generally raised by around 800 yuan/mt in line with the guidance. Going forward, close attention should be paid to dynamic changes in raw material costs and adjustments in downstream procurement pace.

[Worsening Supply Concerns and Gradual Demand Recovery Stabilize the Center of Aluminum Prices with Geopolitical Premiums ]Overall, the market's core focus in the period ahead is on whether key aluminum smelters in the Middle East will further expand production cuts. If the cuts continue to materialize, they will provide strong upward momentum for global aluminum prices, coupled with support from expectations of a gradual release of demand during China’s peak season. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to remain in a high-level consolidation pattern.

[SMM Aluminum Price Weekly Review: Geopolitical Disruptions Dominate, and the Pattern of Elevated Aluminum Prices Continues]

[SMM Flash] SMM data showed that the PMI of the secondary aluminum industry in March rebounded sharply by 40.9 percentage points MoM to 68.8, returning above the 50 mark. In March, enterprises basically resumed normal production, and downstream demand gradually recovered. Both the production and new orders of secondary aluminum enterprises in March increased significantly from February. In April, orders for secondary aluminum are expected to weaken, and the industry PMI is expected to pull back below the 50 mark.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: In March, the Secondary Aluminum Industry PMI Rebounded Sharply Into Expansion Territory, and Downward Pressure Remained in April] Overnight, the aluminum alloy 2605 contract price first fell and then rose, showing an overall fluctuating upward trend. After the opening, the price quickly dipped to an intraday low of 23,320 yuan/mt, then gradually stabilized and rebounded, fluctuating upward to a high of 23,610 yuan/mt. It pulled back slightly late in the session and finally closed at 23,585 yuan/mt, down 45 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, a decline of 0.19%.