SMM News on March 31: According to SMM statistics, China’s aluminum production in March 2026 (31 days) was up 1.6% YoY and up 10.7% MoM. This was mainly driven by the recovery in calendar days and the gradual resumption of production by downstream enterprises after the Chinese New Year. Operating rates across downstream industries moved higher overall, and the proportion of liquid aluminum rebounded in tandem, up about 9.3 percentage points MoM to 73.7%, exceeding expectations at the beginning of the month. The main reason was that some aluminum plants saw considerable liquid aluminum sales, while sentiment toward casting ingot was weaker than expected at the beginning of the month. Based on SMM data on the proportion of liquid aluminum, China’s aluminum casting ingot volume in March was up 5.3% YoY and down 18.1% MoM. Capacity changes: As of month-end March, SMM statistics showed that China’s existing aluminum capacity was about 46.209 million mt, with no MoM change. Production forecast: Entering April 2026, as the peak season deepens, downstream enterprises are expected to see gradually stronger demand for primary aluminum. The proportion of liquid aluminum is expected to edge higher. Overall, the proportion of liquid aluminum is expected to rise 1.8 percentage points to 75.5%. [Data source statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data is processed and derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM’s internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.]

SMM News, March 31: According to SMM statistics, China aluminum production in March 2026 (31 days) was up 1.6% YoY and up 10.7% MoM. This was mainly driven by the recovery in calendar days and the gradual resumption of work and production by downstream enterprises after the Chinese New Year. Operating rates across downstream sectors generally increased, and the proportion of liquid aluminum also rebounded, up about 9.3 percentage points MoM to 73.7%, above expectations at the beginning of the month. The main reason was that some aluminum plants saw considerable liquid aluminum sales, while sentiment for casting ingot was weaker than expected at the beginning of the month. Based on SMM data on the proportion of liquid aluminum, China aluminum casting ingot production in March was up 5.3% YoY and down 18.1% MoM. Capacity changes: As of month-end March, SMM statistics showed that China existing aluminum capacity was about 46.209 million mt, with no MoM change. Production forecast: Entering April 2026, as the peak season deepens, downstream enterprises are expected to see gradually stronger demand for primary aluminum. The proportion of liquid aluminum is expected to edge higher. Overall, the proportion of liquid aluminum is expected to rise by 1.8 percentage points to 75.5%. [Data source statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data is processed and derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.] Source: SMM

Groundbreaking Ceremony Held for Alcoa Arconic’s Davenport, Iowa Plant Arconic held a groundbreaking ceremony for a $175 million investment project at its Davenport, Iowa plant. The project will add a state-of-the-art aluminum casting complex to the facility. For company leadership, the No. 10 Pit expansion project represented both growth in the manufacturing business and a long-term commitment to the region. With expanded capacity, advanced technology, and a focus on efficiency and sustainability, Arconic was positioning itself and the local community for the next generation of industrial growth. Once completed, No. 10 Pit will significantly expand casting ingot capacity, increase aluminum scrap recycling, and improve overall energy efficiency.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Briefing: Middle East Situation Remains Deadlocked, Aluminum Prices Hold Up Well] Overall, macro geopolitical risks are providing support at the bottom of prices, while the continued buildup in China’s social inventory is weighing on aluminum prices. However, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains unclear. If the conflict persists, expectations for tighter global aluminum supply will remain strong, and aluminum prices will still have solid upward momentum. In the short term, aluminum prices are still expected to hold up well.

[SMM Aluminum Price Weekly Review: Middle East Geopolitical Conflict Drove a Sharp Surge in Aluminum Prices; In the Short Term, Aluminum Prices Are Expected to Hold Up Well]

After the Chinese New Year holiday, the domestic aluminum market entered the traditional resumption cycle, but the problem of aluminum ingot inventory buildup became prominent. Warehouses in major consumption areas faced comprehensive capacity constraints, and congestion at railway stations was widespread. Overall inventory pressure is expected to persist until the end of March...

SMM February 28 News: According to SMM statistics, domestic aluminum production in February 2026 (28 days) increased 2.1% YoY but decreased 8.9% MoM. Affected by the Chinese New Year holiday, the overall operating rate of downstream industries was low during the month, and the proportion of liquid aluminum also saw a significant pullback, dropping 7.7 percentage points MoM to 64.4%, in line with expectations at the beginning of the month. The main reasons were that demand had not yet recovered amid the off-season, coupled with production halts for the holiday at some downstream enterprises. Based on SMM's proportion of liquid aluminum data, domestic aluminum casting ingot volume in February increased 25.8% YoY and 16.2% MoM. Capacity Changes: As of the end of February, SMM statistics show domestic existing aluminum capacity was approximately 46.209 million mt, and domestic operating aluminum capacity was approximately 45.109 million mt. Production Forecast: Entering March 2026, with the return of calendar days, aluminum production is expected to rebound MoM. Regarding the proportion of liquid aluminum, as downstream enterprises resume work after the holiday, raw material demand is gradually strengthening. The proportion of liquid aluminum is expected to rise significantly. Overall, the proportion of liquid aluminum is projected to increase 9.2 percentage points to 73.5%.

According to foreign media reports, on Sunday, Taural, an Indian aluminum casting manufacturer, began production at its second aluminum casting plant in Supa (adjacent to Pune) in Maharashtra. The plant, with an investment of 5 billion rupees, will expand its capacity to 1,500 tons and will produce custom aluminum castings weighing between 20 kg and 1,000 kg for use in various industries including energy, transportation, defense, railways, aerospace, and industrial infrastructure.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: Macro Tug-of-War Between Longs and Shorts, Aluminum Prices Fluctuate Considerably at High Levels] Overall, the current SHFE aluminum price has experienced a short-term sharp rise driven by events and capital, with market trading sentiment in a phase of excitement. Subsequently, caution is needed against the risk of sentiment cooling and market correction triggered by multiple factors.

SMM January 30 News: According to SMM statistics, China's aluminum production in January 2026 (31 days) increased by 2.7% YoY and 0.5% MoM. Overall downstream operating rates trended downward during the month, and the proportion of liquid aluminum also declined, dropping 4.4 percentage points MoM to 72.1%, a decrease larger than initially expected. The main reasons include: 1) Demand had not yet recovered due to the off-season impact, coupled with some downstream enterprises starting their Chinese New Year break early; 2) Aluminum prices generally fluctuated at highs in January, putting pressure on downstream profit margins, leading to an overall decline in operating rates; 3) Repeated environmental protection-driven production restrictions in some regions constrained raw material demand. Based on SMM's liquid aluminum proportion data, China's aluminum casting ingot volume in January decreased by 5.9% YoY but increased by 19.4% MoM. Capacity Changes: As of the end of January, SMM statistics show China's existing aluminum capacity was approximately 46.209 million mt, and operating aluminum capacity was approximately 44.996 million mt. Production Forecast: Entering February 2026, aluminum production is expected to decrease MoM due to fewer calendar days. Additionally, some new aluminum projects are expected to steadily commence and ramp up production. Regarding the liquid aluminum proportion, with the Chinese New Year approaching, downstream demand for raw materials is marginally weakening. Combined with the impact of high aluminum prices suppressing demand, downstream demand is further weakening marginally, and enterprises' willingness to cast ingots has significantly increased. The liquid aluminum proportion is expected to decrease significantly by 7.7 percentage points to 64.4%. [Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.] Data Source: SMM