According to SMM statistics, on April 23, aluminum billet inventory in China's major consumption areas totaled 278,000 mt, down 14,000 mt WoW from last Thursday, smoothly falling below 280,000 mt, largely in line with expectations at the beginning of the month. In terms of warehouse withdrawals, aluminum billet warehouse withdrawals totaled 49,000 mt last week, down 5,000 mt WoW, mainly because aluminum prices once again rose above 25,000, and downstream buyers again adopted a wait-and-see attitude.

[Strait Blockade Remains in Stalemate, LME Outperforms SHFE for Aluminum] Overall, the strait blockade continued. The supply gap outside China and the ongoing drawdown of LME inventory supported LME prices to hold up well, while China's aluminum ingot inventory remained at elevated levels. Attention should be paid to whether a turning point in domestic inventory can materialize smoothly.

[Geopolitical Negotiations Remain Unresolved; Aluminum Prices Continue LME Outperforms SHFE Pattern] Overall, the Middle East negotiation process continued to face setbacks. However, the supply gap outside China and the continued drawdown of LME inventory supported LME prices to hold up well. Meanwhile, China's aluminum ingot inventory remained at elevated levels, and attention should be paid to whether the inflection point of domestic inventory can materialize smoothly.

During the week, downstream procurement sentiment remained cautious, dominated by rigid demand, making it difficult for market trading volumes to increase. Meanwhile, due to the persistent surplus of aluminum billets, processing fees were under severe pressure, prompting producers to actively reduce billet casting volumes. Combined with social inventory prioritizing warehouse inflows of aluminum ingots, aluminum billet warehouse inflows decreased significantly, and social inventory maintained a steady downward trend. With the tightening of the supply side and the reduction in inventory arrivals, aluminum billet inventory will continue to maintain its destocking pace, and by month-end of April, aluminum billet inventory is expected to pull back to 250,000 mt.

[SMM Aluminum Price Weekly Review: Supply Shortages Outside China Supported Prices to Hold Up Well, China Focused on the Turning Point of Aluminum Ingot Social Inventory]

As the center of aluminum prices shifted upward again, compounded by uncertainty in macro sentiment, downstream participants adopted a cautious wait-and-see approach and slowed down their procurement pace, leading to a sharp decline in aluminum billet warehouse withdrawals within the week and a slowdown in the pace of inventory destocking. Currently, consumption pace maintained a seasonal recovery, and the progress of production resumptions on the aluminum billet supply side remained slow. Aluminum billet inventory was expected to maintain its destocking pace, with aluminum billet inventory likely to fall below 300,000 mt next week.

According to SMM statistics, as of March 26, inventory of aluminum billet in China’s major consumption regions totaled 341,500 mt, down 28,000 mt WoW from last Thursday, with the destocking trend steadily accelerating.

SMM, March 17: Aluminum ingot: Today, sentiment in the Foshan A00 spot aluminum market recovered moderately. The rebound in early-session futures prices drove spot prices higher, and suppliers took the opportunity to accelerate cashing out. Traders showed moderate willingness to purchase, while major players held prices firm in procurement, but downstream buyers were unwilling to rush to buy amid continuous price rise. In the afternoon, futures moved downward, buyers turned cautious, and transactions started steady before weakening, with overall performance showing a mild rebound. Aluminum billet: Today, the average processing fees for SMM 6063 aluminum billet (Guangdong) were 70 yuan/mt for Φ90/100 and 20 yuan/mt for Φ120 and above, down 80 yuan/mt from yesterday. The rise in the base price caused processing fees to continue to decline, while weaker intraday futures prices intensified downstream bearish sentiment, with procurement mainly driven by immediate needs. After futures surged and then pulled back, offers were lowered accordingly. Market inquiries were scarce, transactions were sluggish, and even volume discounts remained ineffective in stimulating deals.

[SMM Analysis: February Operating Rate of Primary Aluminum Billets Hit a Nearly Four-Year Low, Expected to Recover to Peak-Season Levels Seen in the Same Period in Previous Years in March] According to SMM statistics, the operating rate of aluminum billets in February fell sharply by 9.2 percentage points MoM to 41.4%, down 7.7 percentage points YoY. After aluminum prices surged to a record high at the end of January, they saw a sharp correction ....

SMM, March 5: Today, market sentiment in the Foshan A00 spot aluminum market adjusted in the doldrums. Downstream players basically completed the resumption of work after the Lantern Festival, with bullish sentiment spreading. Purchase willingness and buying intensity both increased, and market transactions were in a phase of accelerated recovery. The overall supply-demand pattern changed relatively little. Although overall deliverable cargo in warehouses was ample, pressure from in-transit cargo eased slightly due to the expanded suspension of rail loading in South China. Aluminum prices rose for several consecutive sessions, leaving traders hedging positions relatively passive. Today, mainstream quotes in the South China market were at a discount of 170-180 yuan/mt to the SHFE aluminum 03 contract, with mainstream transactions at a discount of 180 yuan/mt to the SHFE aluminum 03 contract. Aluminum billet: Today, the average processing fee for SMM 6063 aluminum billet (Guangdong) was -50 yuan/mt for Φ90/100, and -100 yuan/mt for Φ120 and above, down 230 yuan/mt from yesterday. As overseas aluminum supply saw renewed turbulence, the base price fluctuated sharply. Aluminum billet processing fees came under pressure, with the discount widening. Downstream players were wary of high prices, mainly purchasing on rigid demand while pushing for lower prices, and overall market trading sentiment was average.