SMM August 11: In early trading, the SHFE aluminum 2608 contract continued to run at high levels, with prices above 24,000 yuan/mt somewhat curbing downstream purchases, while transactions among traders were relatively active. Today, the main trading center of spot premiums for SHFE aluminum was between 40 yuan/mt against the August contract and 20 yuan/mt against the August-October contract. In east China, the shipment sentiment index was 3.16, up 0.01 from the previous day; the purchase sentiment index was 3.20, up 0.04 from the previous day. Aluminum futures prices continued to rise, and trading atmosphere in central China remained sluggish today. Downstream processing enterprises' buying sentiment was sluggish, with overall market trading volume remaining low. Small traders tended to dump products in large volumes at high aluminum prices, while large traders' sentiment to hold prices firm remained notable. Ultimately, actual transaction prices in central China centered around a discount of 120-140 yuan/mt against the SHFE August contract. In central China, the shipment sentiment index was 3.06, up 0.02 from the previous day; the purchase sentiment index was 2.95, down 0.01 from the previous day. Inventory side, today's aluminum ingot inventory in mainstream consumption areas fell by 4,500 mt WoW, with Guangdong and Wuxi showing destocking.

SMM August 11 News: Today, SHFE aluminum 2609 contract opened at 24,180 yuan/mt, reached a high of 24,260 yuan/mt, a low of 24,095 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 24,250 yuan/mt, up 215 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, a rise of 0.89%. Trading volume was 131,200 lots, open interest 239,400 lots, with a daily position change of -1,415 lots. The price has firmly stood above MA5 (24,010), MA10 (23,821), MA30 (23,314.17), and MA60 (23,720.75). The moving average system shows a bullish alignment, and the uptrend continues. In the MACD indicator, DIFF (188.92) and DEA (76.79) are both above the zero line and continue to diverge upward, with the histogram expanding to 224.25, indicating strengthening bullish momentum. Trading volume of 131,200 lots was below MA5 (134,100 lots), a volume-shrinking rise suggesting limited willingness to rush to buy amid continuous price rise. SMM Comment: Differences remain on the Middle East situation. Although the US Fed did not raise rates in July, its overall stance remains hawkish. The fundamental deficit persists, and aluminum ingot inventory continues to destock. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to consolidate on a strong note. Today, alumina 2609 contract opened at 2,727 yuan/mt, reached a high of 2,743 yuan/mt, a low of 2,711 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 2,724 yuan/mt, up 25 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, a rise of 0.93%. Trading volume was 156,100 lots, open interest 324,900 lots, with a daily position change of -28,277 lots. The price has firmly stood above MA5 (2,696.2), MA10 (2,670.7), and MA30 (2,696.4), but remains below MA60 (2,764.7). Short-term moving averages are in bullish alignment, while medium and long-term moving averages still exert resistance. In the MACD indicator, DIFF (29.51) and DEA (17.39) have both turned positive and are diverging upward, with the histogram expanding to 24.24, indicating gradually strengthening bullish momentum. Trading volume of 156,100 lots was below MA5 (203,100 lots), a volume-shrinking rise suggesting declining market participation. The daily position change of -28,277 lots, a significant reduction, indicates clear bearish liquidation. SMM Comment: This week, spot alumina prices continued to drift lower, maintaining a downward trend. Supply side, production this week rebounded slightly WoW, mainly as enterprises that had undergone maintenance resumed production, gradually restoring output to normal levels, with overall supply increasing. Demand side saw no significant change, with downstream procurement pace remaining stable, failing to provide effective growth support. Ex-China, the issue of Indonesia's alumina export restrictions has been resolved. Alumina resources previously suspended due to containing rare earth elements have now been approved for re-export, which will supplement the Chinese market going forward. Looking ahead to next week, bullish and bearish factors are intertwined: On one hand, an alumina refinery in south China plans maintenance, which will tighten regional supply and provide some support to prices; on the other hand, new vessels will continue to arrive at ports, providing ongoing supply replenishment. Under these two forces, overall inventory is expected to remain at current levels, with the pace of inventory buildup slowing down. Overall, driven by sentiment fluctuations on the futures market and the positive impact of short-term maintenance, the decline in alumina prices is expected to temporarily halt, and prices will consolidate within the current range in the near term. [The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions prudently and should not use this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients have nothing to do with SMM.]

SMM, August 11: The SMM A00 spot aluminum price closed at 24,100 yuan/mt today, up 110 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In China's scrap aluminum market, tense scrap prices held steady with a wait-and-see stance, while bare bright aluminum wire and aluminum extrusion scrap free of paint rose in tandem. Regarding the price difference, on August 11, the price difference between A00 aluminum and mixed aluminum extrusion scrap free of paint in Foshan was about 2,360 yuan/mt, and the price difference between A00 aluminum and shredded aluminum tense scrap was about 1,260 yuan/mt. As primary aluminum prices continued to climb, scrap aluminum showed insufficient upward momentum, and the price difference widened again. Demand for secondary aluminum alloys and their downstream sectors weakened marginally. Coupled with high inventories of wrought aluminum raw materials like doors and windows in Henan and other regions, the price transmission mechanism for scrap aluminum was hindered, leaving upward momentum clearly weak. Affected by the traditional consumption off-season, operating rates at downstream cast aluminum alloy enterprises kept declining, order volumes shrank, and the scrap aluminum market lacked substantive support. Looking ahead, the supply-demand mismatch pattern is unlikely to reverse in the short term. Scrap utilization enterprises will likely maintain strategies of purchasing as needed and low-inventory operations, with market trading atmosphere seeing little substantial improvement. This week, shredded aluminum tense scrap priced based on aluminum content is expected to be dragged down by stagnant raw material prices and weak downstream demand, operating under overall pressure, with the prevailing trading range anticipated to center around 20,200-20,800 yuan/mt.

[SMM Aluminum Express News] Ma’aden’s aluminum business delivered its best quarterly financial performance since inception in Q2 2026, with revenue rising 49% year on year to US$1.01 billion and EBITDA more than doubling to US$411 million, representing a 41% margin. The improvement was mainly driven by higher pricing, with average realized aluminum prices increasing 51% to US$3,915/tonne, despite production edging lower to 242,000 tonnes. Ma’aden expects aluminum market fundamentals to remain supportive, citing an estimated global market deficit of around 1.7 million tonnes for the remainder of 2026. The company noted that aluminum prices began moderating toward the end of Q2 but expects the supply deficit to continue supporting near-term pricing, while maintaining a favorable medium- to long-term outlook.

[SMM Aluminum Alloy ADC12 Daily Review] ADC12 market offers consolidated on a strong note today. The SMM average price edged up 50 yuan/mt, with some enterprises following suit and raising prices by 100 yuan/mt, supported by high raw material costs and strong aluminum prices. However, end-use demand remained in the high-temperature off-season, and downstream purchases were mainly just-in-time procurement, limiting improvement in transactions, while some enterprises stood still for now. In the short term, ADC12 will continue to consolidate amid cost support and demand constraints, with the extent of any rise still dependent on a substantial recovery in end-use consumption.

[ADC12 Price Daily Review: Outside China ADC12 Prices Strengthened, Import Losses Deepened Further] The ADC12 market offers consolidated on a strong note today. The SMM average price was raised slightly by 50 yuan/mt. Some enterprises, supported by high raw material costs and strong aluminum prices, followed suit to increase their prices by 100 yuan/mt. However, end-use demand remained in the high-temperature off-season, and downstream buyers mainly made just-in-time procurement. Transactions improved only limitedly, and some enterprises held prices stable for the time being and took a wait-and-see approach.

SMM August 11 News: In July, the domestic primary aluminum alloy sector exhibited a pattern of "short-term uptick followed by moderation." Production reached 309,000 tonnes, up 6.1% month-on-month, with the industry operating rate moving in tandem. However, this output increase was not driven by end-user demand, but rather reflected a tactical inventory adjustment along the supply chain. On the demand side, the automotive sector had already entered its traditional off-season, with weak actual procurement appetite. Primary alloy producers continued to fulfil long-term contracts, while new order inflows remained limited. In mid-July, when aluminum prices dropped to a cyclical low, downstream buyers took the opportunity to restock at lower levels, aiming to manage working capital costs. This buying activity temporarily eased the selling pressure on alloy producers and prompted them to raise operating rates. By month-end, however, aluminum prices had rebounded steadily, dampening buyers' enthusiasm. Market transactions turned subdued as downstream players showed little tolerance for higher-priced raw materials. Looking ahead to August, primary alloy output is expected to retreat. The concentrated restocking in July has largely satisfied near-term raw material requirements. Coupled with sustained firm aluminum prices, downstream purchasers are likely to remain cautious, constrained by rising financing costs. Alloy producers, facing weakening new order visibility, may proactively cut production schedules. In contrast, the aluminum alloy wheel segment demonstrated notable external demand resilience. In June, China's aluminum wheel exports surged 17.7% month-on-month, and the year-on-year growth widened to 20.5%. The low base in May provided room for the rebound, but more importantly, overseas new-energy vehicle demand continued to expand, with major destination markets placing significantly larger orders. In addition, the narrowing spread between domestic and international aluminum prices alleviated the previous drag on exports. Overall, June exports recorded both volume and price gains, underscoring the sustained reliance of overseas markets on China's wheel supply chain. Taken together, the current aluminum fabrication sector is marked by a "weak domestic demand vs. resilient exports" dynamic. Primary alloy production, constrained by the seasonal slowdown and downstream price sensitivity, is unlikely to sustain its July rebound, with a contraction highly probable in August. Meanwhile, aluminum wheel exports are poised to maintain momentum, supported by robust overseas NEV demand, making it one of the few bright spots in the downstream aluminum market. In the near term, key factors to watch include the trajectory of aluminum prices and its impact on procurement timing, as well as any shifts in foreign trade policies that could affect wheel shipments.

SMM August 11: In July, China's primary aluminum alloy industry exhibited a pattern characterized by a short-term surge followed by a slowdown. In terms of production data, production that month posted 309,000 mt, up 6.1% MoM, with the industry's operating rate moving up in tandem. However, this production rebound was not driven by end-use demand, but rather reflected a phase of behavioral adjustments along the industry chain. Demand transmission side, the automotive industry has entered the traditional consumption off-season, end-user purchasing willingness remains relatively weak, and primary aluminum alloy enterprises continue to focus on fulfilling long-term contracts, with limited growth in new orders. When aluminum prices dipped to relatively low levels in mid-month, downstream enterprises, motivated by cost management considerations, engaged in concentrated bargain-hunting restocking activity, easing shipment pressures for alloy enterprises to a certain extent and prompting them to raise production loads. However, towards month-end, as aluminum prices rebounded into elevated ranges, buying interest from downstream sectors contracted sharply, with significantly reduced capacity to absorb high-priced raw materials, and market transactions turned sluggish. Looking ahead, primary aluminum alloy production in August is expected to face downward pressure, as earlier concentrated bargain-hunting restocking activity has partially exhausted near-term raw material demand, coupled with aluminum prices currently consolidating on a strong note. Rising financial pressures on downstream enterprises will further dampen procurement sentiment, while the outlook for new orders at alloy enterprises remains pessimistic, potentially leading them to proactively scale back output levels. Unlike the domestic demand fluctuations in the primary alloy market, the aluminum wheel hub segment has demonstrated strong resilience in external demand. In June, China's exports of aluminum wheels rose 17.7% MoM, with the YoY increase widening to 20.5%. On one hand, a low export base in May provided room for this MoM growth; on the other hand, the release of demand for NEVs in overseas markets, with significant new orders for procurement from key export destinations, directly boosted total exports. At the same time, the price spread between domestic and overseas aluminum prices has been stabilizing, and the earlier drag on exports is easing. Overall, exports strengthened in both volume and price in June, reflecting the continued reliance of markets outside China on the country's wheel supply chain. Looking at the bigger picture, the aluminum processing industry is currently in a state where 'domestic sales are under pressure, and exports are filling the gap.' Primary aluminum alloy is constrained by the off-season in end-use demand and downstream fear of high prices, so the sustainability of the production rebound is questionable, with a strong expectation of contraction in August; meanwhile, supported by overseas demand for NEVs, the momentum in exports is expected to be sustained, making it one of the few bright spots in current aluminum downstream consumption. In the near term, key attention should be paid to how aluminum price trends will further steer downstream procurement pace, and the potential disruptions from overseas trade policies on wheel exports. (The information above is based on market data and a comprehensive assessment by the SMM research team, and is provided for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice, clients should make decisions prudently and not replace their independent judgment with this. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.) Data source: SMM

[Liquidity Tightening Suppresses Risk Appetite; Destocking Supports Aluminum Prices to Hold Up Well] Based on a comprehensive assessment, with divergences over the Middle East situation still present, the US Fed maintaining an overall hawkish stance despite not raising rates in July, the fundamental deficit persisting, and aluminum ingot inventories continuing to destock, aluminum prices are expected to consolidate on a strong note in the short term.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Limited Boost from Futures, Market Continues Steady Consolidation] Yesterday, ADC12 market quotations remained broadly stable, with the industry generally lacking willingness to adjust prices. Recently, futures have strengthened, and inquiry activity from spot-futures traders has rebounded somewhat. However, constrained by weak end-use demand, spot cargo transaction volumes saw limited expansion, and price follow-through lacks substantial support. Meanwhile, the cost side still provides bottom support—prices are under pressure both upward and downward, leaving the overall market in a wait-and-see mode. In the short term, ADC12 prices are expected to continue steady consolidation.