SMM February 26: This week, aluminum fluoride enterprises focused on fulfilling orders. Approaching month-end, the market awaited new price guidance, resulting in sluggish trading activity and stable prices. To date, SMM aluminum fluoride prices closed at 10,480-10,750 yuan/mt; cryolite prices remained largely stable, with SMM cryolite quotes at 7,000-9,000 yuan/mt. Raw material side: Prices of core raw materials for aluminum fluoride were largely stable. Specifically, delivery-to-factory prices for 97% fluorite powder held steady, currently concentrated in the range of 3,100-3,400 yuan/mt. Supply side, production halts in north China due to low temperatures and the Chinese New Year holiday reduced market supply. Coupled with routine environmental and safety supervision, small and medium-sized mines experienced unstable operations. Imports were mainly medium and low-grade, with limited high-grade supply, prolonging structural tightness. Although supply contracted, high inventory in some regions and sluggish shipments exerted some downward pressure on prices. Demand side remained weak, with core downstream hydrofluoric acid industry operating at low rates, resulting in weak digestion of fluorite powder and lack of strong momentum. Current market transactions were sluggish, and prices saw no major adjustments. Aluminum hydroxide prices held steady, with the SMM weighted average price at 1,611 yuan/mt, flat MoM. The sulfuric acid market continued to fluctuate at highs, providing some cost support for aluminum fluoride. Overall, rigid cost support for aluminum fluoride raw materials remained. Supply-demand side: In terms of supply, some previously idled enterprises in the domestic aluminum fluoride industry gradually prepared to resume production after the holiday, raising expectations for supply recovery. However, some enterprises conducted planned maintenance, and high costs constrained production enthusiasm. Industry-wide operating rates remained in the doldrums, with relatively ample spot supply in the market. Demand side, operating capacity in the downstream aluminum industry stayed stable, providing rigid support for aluminum fluoride demand. Post-holiday, downstream enterprises gradually resumed procurement pace, and market activity recovered. However, cautious procurement sentiment led enterprises to restock as needed and maintain low inventory, resulting in limited actual purchases and insufficient support for aluminum fluoride price increases. Brief comment: Current stable trends in raw material prices such as fluorite and sulfuric acid provided strong bottom support for aluminum fluoride prices. Supply side, ample spot supply and post-holiday production resumptions were expected to increase supply further. Demand side, only rigid restocking from the aluminum industry drove a slight rebound, lacking significant boosts. Considering multiple factors, SMM expected aluminum fluoride prices to fluctuate rangebound in the short term. Future monitoring should focus on dynamic changes in raw material costs and marginal adjustments in procurement pace of downstream aluminum enterprises.

SMM February 26 News: In the morning session, SHFE aluminum 2602 fluctuated downward, with the price center higher than the previous trading day. Influenced by the spot-futures price spread and the price spread between futures contracts, some traders entered the market to build positions, leading to a continuous rise in spot quotations since the opening. The mainstream quotations concentrated around the average to 30 yuan/mt. Today, the shipment sentiment index in the east China market was 2.81, up 0.15 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.7, up 0.08 MoM. SMM A00 aluminum closed at 235,200 yuan/mt, up 1,400 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, at a discount of 1,800 yuan/mt against the 2603 contract, an increase of 200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Today, SHFE aluminum prices rose, and traders holding stocks in the central China market showed a clear willingness to sell at high prices. However, during the initial period after the Chinese New Year holiday, downstream processing enterprises had not fully consumed their inventories, coupled with high aluminum prices, resulting in low restocking willingness. Overall, the market's trading situation was poor, with trading volume lower than the previous two days. Ultimately, the actual transaction price in the central China market fell from a premium of 10 yuan/mt over the central China price before the opening to a discount of 40 yuan/mt. Today, the shipment sentiment index in the central China market was 2.6, up 0.06 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.13, down 0.03 MoM. SMM central China closed at 234,100 yuan/mt, up 1,100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, at a discount of 2,900 yuan/mt against the 2603 contract, a decrease of 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between Henan and Shanghai was -1,100 yuan/mt, widening by 300 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of inventory, today, the aluminum ingot inventory in the main consumption areas increased by 26,000 mt MoM. Affected by the Chinese New Year break, all three regions showed an inventory buildup. In the short term, post-Chinese New Year, aluminum ingots continued to experience seasonal inventory buildup, and spot premiums/discounts are expected to remain under pressure.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: SHFE Aluminum Fluctuates Rangebound on Second Day After Holiday, Market Remains Sluggish] Spot side, A00 aluminum price edged down 10 yuan/mt to 23,380 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while SMM ADC12 price held steady at 23,750 yuan/mt. Futures overall showed narrow consolidation, and secondary aluminum market quotations were mostly stable. Downstream inquiries and actual transactions recovered somewhat during the week, but overall trading atmosphere remained cautious, with market sentiment relatively mediocre. Fundamentally, the pace of production resumptions at enterprises was slow in the first week after the holiday, limiting supply-side increments and providing some support to prices. However, demand recovery is more likely to be gradual; before terminal orders see a significant increase, downstream purchases will mainly focus on restocking for rigid demand, making sustained large-volume transactions difficult. Cost side, continued attention is needed on price fluctuations of aluminum scrap and auxiliary materials such as copper and silicon, while primary aluminum trends will still dominate market sentiment and the price center. Overall, ADC12 prices are likely to continue moving sideways in the initial post-holiday period, similar to the pre-holiday pattern. The subsequent direction will depend on the supply-demand matching degree after full production resumptions and the performance of primary aluminum. If phased restocking demand is released alongside primary aluminum holding up well, there is some room for price recovery. Conversely, if demand recovery falls short of expectations, prices may face slight pressure but will largely remain range-bound.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: Macro Front Sees Mixed Sentiments, Aluminum Ingot Inventory Accumulation Caps Price Upside Room] Fundamental seasonal weakening pressure becomes more pronounced. Supply side, domestic and overseas aluminum new projects steadily ramp up production. Demand side, attention should be paid to the pace of downstream enterprise resumption after the holiday. Currently, under the influence of seasonal supply exceeding demand, the market generally expects the post-holiday inventory peak to reach 1.3 million mt, hitting a five-year high, which will be the core factor suppressing prices. Overall, aluminum prices are expected to move sideways in the short term.

[Post-holiday silicon metal market activity gradually recovers; focus on operating rate changes on both supply and demand sides]: During the first workweek after the Chinese New Year holiday, downstream users of silicon metal mainly inquired about prices, with only small volumes of rigid demand restocking transactions concluded. Trading firms engaging in both spot and futures market quoted prices actively, while silicon enterprises mostly maintained stable offers and adopted a wait-and-see stance compared to pre-holiday levels. As of February 26, SMM oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China was at 9,200-9,300 yuan/mt, #441 silicon at 9,300-9,500 yuan/mt, and #3303 silicon at 10,200-10,400 yuan/mt. On the export front, overseas users showed active inquiry performance after the holiday, but export order prices remained involutionary. In the futures market, the most-traded contract weakened on Thursday afternoon, closing at 8,335 yuan/mt at the end of the session. Throughout the week, the most-traded contract moved within a range of 8,330-8,495 yuan/mt. Most silicon enterprises maintained strong wait-and-see sentiment with stable offers, while futures consolidated at lows and trading firms engaging in both spot and futures market quoted actively, resulting in on-demand transactions in the market.

SMM February 25 news: Aluminum ingot: On February 25, SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) was quoted at 23,450 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt, at a discount of 130 yuan against the front-month contract. High inventory and month-end liquidation pressure prompted suppliers to lower their offers. Downstream buyers only restocked based on rigid demand, while traders mainly adopted a wait-and-see stance. The rise in futures failed to boost spot transactions, and the discount continued to widen. Aluminum billet: On February 25, the average price of SMM 6063 aluminum billet (Guangdong) Φ90/100 was 210 yuan/mt, and the average price for specifications Φ120 and above was 160 yuan/mt. Most processing fees held steady. The pace of downstream work resumption was relatively slow, with limited motivation to rush to buy amid continuous price rises. Market offers diverged, and actual transactions remained sluggish.

[SMM Magnesium Weekly Review: Magnesium Market Held Up Well After Holiday, Raw Material Divergence Tightened Supply, Domestic and Foreign Trade Game Intensified] This week, the magnesium industry chain overall showed a pattern of holding up well, with prices of various varieties rising slightly. Raw material side, dolomite market was stable with some increases; top-tier enterprises in Wutai area continued to halt production, but other production areas promptly filled the gap, keeping overall supply stable. It is expected that as holiday ended and logistics costs pulled back, subsequent delivery-to-factory prices will see a slight decrease. Magnesium ingot market held up well, with offers in main production areas raised to 16,600 yuan/mt; supply side had strong reluctance to sell, combined with sufficient pre-holiday presales, leading to tight spot circulation. Domestic trade restocking for rigid demand supported transactions, while foreign trade inquiries were active but actual orders were cautious, with FOB offers rising to $2,400-2,450/mt. Magnesium powder market operated steadily, supported by raw materials, prices rose slightly, mainly executing previous orders; foreign trade expects new orders to be placed gradually, while domestic trade procurement mostly plans to start in March. Magnesium alloy market benchmark price held up well, processing fee remained stable and firm, enterprises mainly focused on scheduled production, and the tight supply-demand balance pattern continued. Overall, post-holiday magnesium market is in an adjustment phase, structural contraction on the supply side supports prices, the game between domestic and foreign trade intensifies, and subsequent attention should be paid to the pace of European inventory digestion and changes in ocean freight rates.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: Expectations for US Fed Interest Rate Hike Heat Up, Aluminum Prices to Move Sideways in the Short Term] Overall, from a macro perspective, rising short-term expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes are pushing up the US dollar, while geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran and tariff policies are intensifying risk aversion. Coupled with a slowdown in US economic resilience and a weak recovery in the eurozone, the global macro environment is characterized by a fragile balance and high fluctuations. Seasonal pressure from the fundamentals is becoming more pronounced. On the supply side, new aluminum projects domestically and overseas are steadily ramping up production. Demand side, attention should be paid to the pace of downstream enterprise resumptions after the holiday. Currently, due to seasonal oversupply, the market widely expects post-holiday inventory peaks to reach 1.3 million mt, hitting a five-year high, which will be a key factor suppressing prices. Overall, aluminum prices are expected to move sideways in the short term.

SMM February 25: SHFE aluminum 2602 fluctuated upward in the morning session, with the price center slightly lower than the previous trading day. Affected by the spot-futures price spread and price spread between futures contracts, some traders entered the market to build positions, and spot premiums/discounts narrowed. Mainstream quotations were concentrated at the average price to a premium of 20 yuan/mt. Today, the east China market shipment sentiment index was 2.66, up 0.32 WoW; the purchase sentiment index was 2.62, up 0.31 WoW. SMM A00 aluminum was quoted at 23,380 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, at a discount of 200 yuan/mt against the 2603 contract, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Trading sentiment in the central China market slightly recovered today. Following the Chinese New Year break, traders and downstream processing enterprises gradually resumed operations. Market trading atmosphere improved but overall remained relatively sluggish. Downstream enterprises preferred to restock at low prices, but holders showed strong willingness to hold prices firm. Ultimately, actual transaction prices in the central China market ranged from a premium of 10 yuan to a discount of 20 yuan against the central China price, indicating relatively firm prices. Today, the central China market shipment sentiment index was 2.54, up 0.02 WoW; the purchase sentiment index was 2.16, up 0.02 WoW. SMM central China closed at 23,300 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, at a discount of 280 yuan/mt against the 2603 contract, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The Henan-Shanghai price spread was -80 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption areas increased by 24,000 mt WoW. Affected by the downstream Chinese New Year break, all three regions showed inventory buildup. In the short term, high aluminum prices may continue to suppress end-use demand, coupled with the impact of the downstream Chinese New Year break, aluminum ingots still face inventory buildup risks, and spot premiums/discounts are expected to remain under pressure.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Alloy Enterprises Yet to Resume Work, Market Mainly Sluggish] On Tuesday, the SMM ADC12 price was raised by 100 yuan/mt to 23,750 yuan/mt. Post-holiday, futures showed strong performance on the first day, boosting market sentiment, but secondary aluminum enterprises' quotations displayed some divergence. Some enterprises, considering downstream operations have not fully resumed, maintained pre-holiday quotation ranges, holding steady and adopting a wait-and-see approach; others raised prices by 100 yuan/mt accordingly. Inquiry activity in the market gradually recovered, but actual transactions remained relatively light, with the market still dominated by a wait-and-see stance. As the shutdown period for secondary aluminum plants this year was slightly longer YoY, most enterprises are scheduled to resume work between the eighth and fifteenth days of the first lunar month. Supply release pace is expected to be relatively slow in the first week after the holiday, providing phased support to prices. However, demand-side recovery is more likely to be gradual; before end-user orders show significant volume, downstream procurement will remain cautious and need-based. Cost side, continued attention is needed on price fluctuations of aluminum scrap and auxiliary materials such as copper and silicon. Primary aluminum trends remain a key variable affecting market sentiment and the price center. Overall, ADC12 prices are likely to continue the pre-holiday sideways movement pattern in the initial post-holiday period. Subsequent direction will depend on supply-demand matching after full production resumptions and primary aluminum price performance. If phased restocking coincides with primary aluminum holding up well, there is room for price recovery; otherwise, prices may face slight pressure, but the overall trend is expected to remain sideways.