[Alba Reports Decline in Q1 2025 Profit Despite Record Sales Volume and Strong Demand] Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) reported a net profit of BD18.1 million (US$48.2 million) for Q1 2025, marking a 25.9% year-over-year (YoY) decrease. Total comprehensive income fell 39.4% YoY to BD16.8 million, and gross profit dropped 11.3% to BD50.8 million. Despite these declines, revenue rose 22.2% YoY to BD408.9 million, driven by higher LME prices (+20%) and premiums (+38%), although increased production costs compressed margins. On the operational side, Alba achieved record sales of 374,809 MT (+3% YoY), while net finished production slightly declined to 396,866 MT (-2% YoY). Value Added Product (VAP) sales reached 71% of total shipments. The company also reported progress on cost-saving measures, reaching over half of its US$60 million 2025 target. Global aluminium demand rose 2% YoY, with growth in North America (+1%), China (+1%), and the Middle East (+3%). Supply grew just 1%, constrained by production limits in China and shutdowns in other regions. The market showed a surplus including China, but a deficit when excluding it.

China, the leading alumina and aluminium producer, heavily relies on imported bauxite, which surged to 57 per cent in 2024, owing to declining domestic ore grades and export restrictions from Indonesia.

On Monday, April 14, Goldman Sachs revised its aluminium price forecast for 2025, adopting a bearish outlook due to the impact of newly imposed US tariffs on aluminium and auto parts imports.

The MJP aluminium premium has surged to $245–260 per tonne for Q2 2025, far exceeding Japan’s domestic spot price and raising concerns about its role as Asia’s benchmark. Despite this, buyers continue accepting higher premiums to secure stable supply, as producers prioritize shipments to higher-paying markets like the U.S. and Europe. With Japan’s aluminium imports declining, its influence in price negotiations has weakened, shifting power to global suppliers. While MJP is still widely used, its relevance is being questioned as Southeast Asia’s aluminium market grows, potentially paving the way for a more regionally representative pricing model.

According to shipbroker Arrow, the surge in bauxite demand in China has resulted in capesize fleet carrying more bauxite than coal for the first time. The capesize vessels are traditionally used for coal shipments, but now, due to increased demand for the ore in the Chinese market, they are being repurposed to carry larger volumes of bauxite.

The New Year 2025 is expected to deliver strong financial and operational performance for Press Metal Aluminium Holdings Berhad, a Malaysia-based aluminium company with extensive global reach, thanks to the rising demand from China and reduced raw material costs due to increased alumina supply.

The global aluminium market faced challenges in 2024, including alumina shortages, geopolitical tensions, and shipping disruptions. In 2025, alumina supply is expected to recover, creating a surplus, while primary aluminium may shift to a narrow surplus amid limited capacity growth and steady demand. Regional markets will vary, with the U.S. remaining resilient and Europe facing supply risks. Aluminium prices are likely to stay supported but volatile due to economic recovery, geopolitical factors, and cost pressures.

In August 2024, the global aluminium industry experienced notable fluctuations in pricing, reflecting a complex interplay of market dynamics and economic factors.

Following the news on the Canadian Government’s plan to imitate the United States tariffs on Chinese aluminium, steel, and electric vehicles, the Aluminum Association released a statement applauding and welcoming a 25 per cent additional tariff on certain aluminium and aluminium products imported from China.

China’s Baoshan Iron and Steel (Baosteel) and Baowu Aluminum have partnered with Japan’s Kobe Steel to form a new joint venture in a significant move within the automotive materials sector.