[SMM Analysis] Steel Export Review: Geopolitical Conflicts Trigger the Reshaping of the Export Landscape In terms of steel billet exports , the main target market in the first two months remained Indonesia. Part of the cargoes was imported by Chinese-funded or joint-venture rolling mills in Indonesia for further processing and use, thereby avoiding Southeast Asia’s import tariffs on finished steel products, while another part was supplied directly to local projects under construction. Meanwhile, Southeast Asia, Africa, and South America formed a solid base of exports. In particular, on the African side, Djibouti, as a core transshipment hub, had been handling a large volume of circulating resources. Turkey, meanwhile, saw a wave of concentrated external purchases due to delays in steel scrap vessel schedules and spot-futures price spread arbitrage. In terms of bar exports , the share to Hong Kong, China declined somewhat from the end of last year, while exports to Singapore overtook it. The main reason was that procurement in Singapore was rigidly driven by local public housing renewal and public infrastructure projects, such as the Greater Southern Waterfront, according to construction periods, with actual end-user consumption remaining relatively stable; whereas Hong Kong, China, as a capital and logistics transshipment hub, saw some earlier speculative re-export orders constrained by offshore exchange-rate fluctuations at the beginning of the year and funding borrowing costs. Traders proactively reduced some speculative exposure for financial risk hedging purposes, which led to a decline in transshipment procurement volume. Looking ahead to March , with the full blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s semi-finished products export channels were effectively cut off. Chinese steel billet is expected to absorb these additional export orders arising from geopolitical conflict, and traders and steel mills will also accelerate shipments to markets outside China such as Southeast Asia to gain a larger replacement share. Therefore, total steel billet exports still have room to rise. By contrast, Chinese bar exports mainly rely on short-haul regional shipping routes into the inland areas within Asia, and were subject to extremely limited direct impact from the disruption of long-haul Middle East logistics. Therefore, March shipments are expected to remain stable, supported by rigid-demand restocking within the region. Source: SMM, General Administration of Customs Unlike the strong performance of billets, sheets & plates exports in the first two months were unsatisfactory. The cumulative exports of both cold galvanized and hot-rolled products in January and February declined YoY , with the drop in hot-rolled products being more pronounced. However, it should be noted that before the full suspension of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz at the end of February, logistics channels to the Middle East remained open, which secured a critical delivery window for sheets & plates. Therefore, in terms of HRC exports , Saudi Arabia still firmly ranked first among export destinations with a volume of 348,000 mt , mainly because its large-scale non-oil infrastructure and manufacturing projects in China were still in an intensive construction phase, with strong end-user steel demand, which also prompted local buyers to lock in relatively lower-priced Chinese HRC ahead of shipping disruptions, thereby maintaining its leading position. Pakistan (230,000 mt ), by contrast, saw this mainly due to bottlenecks in domestic supply, creating phased concentrated restocking demand, and according to the SMM survey, most purchases were made by downstream pipe factories. From the perspective of cold galvanized exports , the Southeast Asian market was currently in a stage of rapid development, and macroeconomic expansion had created a huge gap in flat steel products. Thailand in particular (304,000 mt ) was in a concentrated raw material stocking cycle for local downstream auto manufacturers at the beginning of this year, so just-in-time procurement by multiple physical manufacturers directly pushed up local imports. Looking ahead to March , under the dual impact of the Strait of Hormuz blockade and the Ramadan effect, sheets & plates exports to the Middle East core region are expected to face a sharp contraction. SMM shipping data showed that steel arrivals had already declined by more than 900,000 mt. However, under the pressure of elevated destocking in China, this portion of blocked exports is expected to be redirected to Southeast Asia and other alternative markets with “rigid manufacturing demand” for redistribution, thereby offsetting shipment reductions caused by localized logistics disruptions. Therefore, there is no need for excessive concern over total sheets & plates exports in March Source: SMM, General Administration of Customs Copyright and Intellectual Property Statement: This report is independently created or compiled by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "SMM"), and SMM legally enjoys complete copyright and related intellectual property rights. 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In the spot market, high-priced long-term contracted cargoes arrived at ports in the early stage with high cargo receiving costs. Domestic traders showed a strong willingness to prop up prices, driving continuous hikes in chromite quotations. However, downstream demand remained sluggish. Coupled with persistently high shipments and a notable inventory build-up, selling pressure intensified, slowing the upward momentum of spot chromite prices.

[Multiple Bearish Factors Stall the Uptrend; China’s Tantalum Market Undergoes Short-Term Adjustment While Medium and Long-Term Support Remains Solid] Recently, the sustained upward momentum in China’s tantalum products market came to a halt, with the overall market entering a phase of temporary consolidation and adjustment. Upward momentum slowed markedly in the short term, mainly due to three core factors: the transmission of macro sentiment, changes in circulating supply, and weakening raw material costs.

Customs data showed that China’s aluminum wire and cable exports totaled 53,280 mt in January-February 2026, up 37% YoY from January-February last year.

March 27 News: Northern ports: South African high-grade ore was 36-37.9 yuan/mtu, up WoW from last Friday; South African semi-carbonate was 43.5-44 yuan/mtu, up WoW from last Friday; Gabon ore was 47.3-47.9 yuan/mtu, up WoW from last Friday; 46% Australian lumps were 48-48.5 yuan/mtu, up WoW from last Friday. South China ports: South African high-grade ore was 34.5-35 yuan/mtu, flat WoW from last Friday; South African semi-carbonate was 38.8-39.5 yuan/mtu, up WoW from last Friday; Gabon ore was 44-44.5 yuan/mtu, up WoW from last Friday; 46% Australian lumps were 45.2-45.7 yuan/mtu, up WoW from last Friday.

[SMM Chrome Weekly Review: Transactions Softened, Ferrochrome Temporarily Stable, Futures Raised and Chrome Ore Remained Firm] March 27, 2026: Ferrochrome and chrome ore prices saw no adjustments for the time being...

Capacity side, according to incomplete statistics, China’s alkaline electrolyzer market remained at 43.77 GW and the PEM electrolyzer market remained at 2.7 GW, with no new capacity added. There was no offline delivery information this week. Project-related updates: Binyang County Haoyuan Industrial Investment Co., Ltd.: Competitive consultation was launched for the Binyang County Green Electricity Hydrogen Production Pilot Construction Project (procurement of hydrogen production equipment and facilities). The budget amount was 2.85 million yuan, with a maximum price limit of 2.85 million yuan. The project entity was Binyang County Haoyuan Industrial Investment Co., Ltd. It is understood that the company is a wholly owned subsidiary of Binyang County Kunpeng Water Affairs Co., Ltd. Kunpeng Water Affairs has registered capital of 448.6 million yuan, and its ultimate controller is the Binyang County Finance Center. Datang Inner Mongolia Duolun Coal Chemical Co., Ltd.: Inquiry-based procurement was conducted for the feasibility study and green methanol certification consulting technical services for the CNCEC Duolun coal chemical coal-based process biomass co-firing coupled with green electricity green methanol production project. It is understood that the Datang Duolun 150,000-kW integrated wind and solar power hydrogen production demonstration project was China’s first medium-to-large-scale technological demonstration project for off-grid wind and solar power hydrogen production deeply coupled with coal chemicals. It was invested in and constructed by Datang Duolun Ruiyuan New Energy Co., Ltd., with a total investment of about 1.3 billion yuan. Construction officially began in November 2023, construction officially began in November 2023, hydrogen was successfully produced on December 29, 2024, and the project was officially connected to the grid and put into operation on January 17, 2025. Shaanxi Construction Engineering Installation Group Co., Ltd.: The Guyang-Baiyun Obo gas transmission pipeline project, undertaken by Shaanxi Installation Group, achieved important progress, with its Guyang initial station and valve chamber successfully passing completion acceptance. It is reported that the gas transmission pipeline project has a 20% hydrogen blending transmission capacity and is a key planned construction project under the “County-to-County Coverage in Western Inner Mongolia” initiative in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region’s 14th Five-Year Plan for Oil and Gas Development. The pipeline has a total length of 125 km, starting from the Guyang initial station and running overall from south to north, successively passing through Guyang County, Darhan Muminggan Banner, and the Baiyun Obo mining district in Baotou City, and ultimately reaching Barun Industrial Park. PetroChina Shenzhen New Energy Research Institute Co., Ltd.: It released a processing tender for its brine hydrogen production electrolyzer. Funding for the tender project was self-raised by the enterprise, with a contribution ratio of 100%. It is understood that procurement of necessary raw materials and components includes, but is not limited to, integrated electrolyzer materials such as electrodes, end plates, bipolar plates, separators, and gaskets. Suppliers were also required to provide essential auxiliary electrolyzer accessories such as cooling towers, chillers, and potassium hydroxide in accordance with the purchaser’s requirements. Tianjin Saihong Environmental Engineering Co., Ltd.: A groundbreaking and pile foundation commencement ceremony was held in the Dagang Petrochemical Industrial Park of Tianjin Binhai New Area. It is understood that the project uses the polyploid giant reed “Lüzhou No. 1,” carefully cultivated by Ruihengmao Group, as its core raw material, successfully overcoming the bottlenecks of existing gasification technologies and the economic challenges of biomass raw materials. Tangshan Haitai New Energy Technology Co., Ltd.: recently entered into a strategic cooperation agreement with Beijing Shougang Gas Co., Ltd. During the meeting, Haitai New Energy gave a detailed presentation on the planning layout and current progress of its long-distance hydrogen pipeline project. The two sides then conducted in-depth discussions and exchanges on the development direction of the hydrogen energy industry and successfully signed a strategic cooperation agreement. In view of Shougang Gas’s continuously rising future demand for hydrogen, Haitai New Energy will leverage its comprehensive advantages in hydrogen transportation to provide Shougang Gas with stable and reliable green hydrogen supply services and comprehensive integrated solutions. Shanghai Juna New Material Technology Co., Ltd.: its water electrolysis hydrogen production electrode company, Juna Technology, completed a new round of financing, exclusively invested by CATL, which has become the company’s largest external institutional shareholder at present. Previously, Juna Technology had completed its first round of financing led by Lenovo Star and its second round led by Changjiang Innovation. This round of financing also marked the company’s first introduction of industrial capital. To date, the company has accumulated 8 external institutional shareholders. Shanghai Juna New Material Technology Co., Ltd.: formally signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Zhejiang Sunshine Green Hydrogen Technology Co., Ltd. This cooperation mainly focuses on the industrialisation and deployment of megawatt-class AEM electrolyzers. Leveraging its advanced JE series high performance AEM hydrogen production electrodes, Juna Technology will provide core component support for Sunshine Green Hydrogen in the R&D, testing, and scaled mass production of megawatt-class electrolyzers. Xinjiang Qingda Energy Technology Co., Ltd. : the environmental impact report for its integrated production line project with annual output of 120,000 mt of green hydrogen and 700,000 mt of green ammonia is planned for submission for approval and public disclosure. According to the disclosure, the project is a new-build project located in the western zone of Wusu Industrial Park and invested in and constructed by Xinjiang Qingda Energy Technology Co., Ltd., with a total investment of 4.1914 billion yuan. The project includes extensive construction content, specifically: six water electrolysis hydrogen production unit lines, each with annual output of 20,000 mt, to achieve annual output of 120,000 mt of green hydrogen; meanwhile, one ammonia synthesis unit line with annual output of 700,000 mt to produce 700,000 mt of green ammonia; in addition, one nitrogen production unit line with annual output of 560,000 KNm³ is also planned. In terms of auxiliary facilities, the project will build 6 electrolyzer workshops, 1 office building, 1 circulating water station, 1 central control room, 1 liquid ammonia tank farm, 1 hydrogen tank farm, 1 demineralised water station, and other supporting facilities, with total gross floor area of 127,083.72 m² and total site area of 330,883 m². The construction period is expected to be 12 months. In the water electrolysis hydrogen production segment, the project adopts the alkaline electrolyzer (ALK) hydrogen production process, equipped with 86 2,000-Nm³ electrolyzers, as well as 2 purification units and 2 gas-liquid treatment units, and is expected to produce 120,000 mt of hydrogen annually, mainly as raw material for ammonia synthesis. For the ammonia synthesis unit, the project will build one new unit adopting Casale axial-radial technology, with major equipment including ammonia compressors and synthesis towers, and is expected to produce 700,000 mt of liquid ammonia annually. CRRC Zhuzhou Electric Locomotive Research Institute Co., Ltd.: CRRC Zhuzhou Institute successfully won the bid for 8 water electrolysis hydrogen production systems for Phase I of Kaishan Group’s Kenya green fertilizer project. It is understood that this is the first export of CRRC electrolyzer products to Africa and also the world’s first project to produce green hydrogen/ammonia using geothermal new energy. The Kaishan fertilizer project uses geothermal steam from a Kenyan energy company to generate clean electricity, and then uses this clean electricity to produce hydrogen and green ammonia, ultimately producing more than 480,000 mt of green fertilizer. The hydrogen production section of the project uses a total of 90 sets of 1,000 Nm³/h. Xinqing Energy Technology (Fukang) Co., Ltd.: the EPC general contracting tender for the Xinqing Energy photovoltaic hydrogen production coupled resource clean utilisation low-carbon integrated project (chemical section) was recently released. It is reported that the project is located about 28 km east of Fukang City, Changji Prefecture, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, about 72 km west of Jimusar County, about 7 km north of Ganhezi Town, and adjacent to the east side of Xinjiang Jinxiang Sairui Coal Chemical Technology Co., Ltd. The project plans to build a new 383.3 MW PV power generation system to achieve hydrogen production capacity of 20,000 mt per year, together with a supporting ammonia synthesis system with annual output of 130,000 mt. In addition, one 220 kV step-down substation will also be built. Inner Mongolia Baofeng Coal-Based New Materials Co., Ltd.: Power Station Group has formally signed a cooperation agreement with Inner Mongolia Feng Coal-Based New Materials Co., Ltd. Power Station Group will supply key equipment for the Phase I water electrolysis hydrogen production project of the other party’s wind and solar power hydrogen production project, specifically including 8 alkaline electrolyzers of 1,250 Nm³/h and the world’s largest single-set 5,000 Nm³/h separation and purification system. In addition, Power Station Group will also provide the industry’s first outdoor three-dimensional layout design supporting services. Policy Review 1. Notice of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and Three Other Departments on Issuing the Implementation Plan for the High-Quality Development of Energy-Saving Equipment (2026-2028). The document states that by 2028, mass-produced water electrolysis hydrogen production equipment will achieve DC power consumption below 4.2 kWh/Nm³ under rated operating conditions. 2. Notice of the General Office of the National Energy Administration on Issuing the Guidelines for Project Approval of the 2026 Energy Industry Standards Plan. The key areas for project approval under the 2026 energy industry standards plan include 8 items. In the hydrogen energy field, the key directions include fundamentals and general applications, hydrogen production and conversion, hydrogen storage and transportation, hydrogen refueling, hydrogen power and generation, and hydrogen equipment. 3. Notice of the People’s Government of Heilongjiang Province on Issuing the Outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development of Heilongjiang Province. The document states that Heilongjiang will step up development of the bioenergy industry, foster green liquid fuel industries such as green hydrogen-to-ammonia, green methanol, and green aviation fuel, strive to achieve annual production capacity of 1 million mt of green hydrogen and 3 million mt of green liquid fuels, and accelerate the scaled and commercial development of bio-natural gas. Corporate Developments CIMC Enric Holdings Limited: Yang Baoying, honorary president of its hydrogen business center, and his delegation recently visited Pengfei Group. During the exchange, the two sides held discussions on promoting the implementation of the “hydrogen cylinder replacement” operating model for hydrogen heavy-duty trucks in Lvliang and ultimately reached consensus. This move has injected strong momentum into the commercialisation and scaled promotion of hydrogen heavy-duty trucks, pressing the “fast-forward button.” Yuchai Xinlan (Jiangsu) Hydrogen Energy Co., Ltd. : formally entered into a strategic cooperation agreement with Henan Hitachi Xin Co., Ltd. The two sides will carry out in-depth cooperation around key links in the hydrogen energy industry chain and jointly advance hydrogen technology innovation, product R&D, and market applications. Shaanxi Construction Engineering Installation Group Co., Ltd.: the Guyang first station and valve chamber of the Guyang-Baiyun Obo gas pipeline project, which it constructed, successfully passed completion acceptance. This milestone means that the innovative infrastructure project, equipped with 20% hydrogen blending transmission capability, is on the verge of official operation. It is understood that the Guyang-Baiyun Obo gas pipeline project not only has 20% hydrogen blending transmission capacity, but is also a key planned construction project under the “county-to-county connectivity in western Inner Mongolia” initiative in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region’s 14th Five-Year Plan for oil and gas development. The pipeline has a total length of 125 km, starting from the Guyang first station and generally running from south to north, passing through Guyang County, Darhan Muminggan Banner, and Baiyun Obo mining district in Baotou City before finally reaching Barun Industrial Park. Jiangsu Guofu Hydrogen Energy Technology Equipment Co., Ltd. : a delegation from Thailand’s water resources, electricity, and related institutions came to China for exchanges on the new energy industry and made a special trip to Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu, to visit the rooftop PV hydrogen production project jointly developed by ZNShine Solar and Guofu Hydrogen Energy. It is understood that the project relies on a distributed PV system installed on factory rooftops to provide clean and stable electricity for the enterprise’s production and energy applications through PV power generation, balancing efficient energy utilisation and green development. At the same time, it integrates hydrogen application scenarios and is equipped with an ESS to ensure stable energy supply for hydrogen production. It is a leading distributed PV hydrogen production demonstration project in China, showcasing China’s advanced achievements in the integrated development of PV and hydrogen energy. CSIC 712 Research Institute: the 100-kg-class hydrogen-powered hexacopter UAV “Hydrogen Peak No. 1,” which it led in developing, successfully completed its maiden flight. It is understood that Hanhydrogen Power, as the main supplier of the hydrogen supply system for hydrogen fuel cell UAVs, participated in the formulation of T/CEEIA265-2017 Technical Specification for Fuel Cell Fuel Systems of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles by the China Electrotechnical Society. Shanghai Yigong Hydrogen Energy Technology Co., Ltd.: Yigong Hydrogen Energy has seen concentrated batch shipments of its hydrogen compressor products, which have been delivered to project sites across the country for commercial operation. Guofu (Jinan) Hydrogen Energy Technology Development Co., Ltd.: registered capital is 2 million yuan, and the legal representative is Ding Leizhe. Equity information shows that Jiangsu Guofu Hydrogen Energy Technology Equipment Co., Ltd. holds 80% of the company, while Zhejiang Lingniu Yishi New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. holds 20%. Patent Applications 1. Shanghai Institute of Ceramics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (China) disclosed patent CN2025110028, developing a ceramic-based anion exchange membrane with laboratory-tested service life reaching 80,000 hours. 2. Johnson Matthey (UK) filed patent WO2025109876, disclosing an Fe-Ni-Mo ternary non-precious metal catalyst formulation with activity close to platinum-based materials. Technology Footprint/Technical Specifications 1. Professor Yu Ying’s team at Central China Normal University developed a three-dimensional graded nanostructured catalytic electrode, a core component for seawater hydrogen production. 2. Dalian University of Technology designed an electron-pump catalyst with an asymmetric photoresponse structure to maintain asymmetry in electron distribution. 3. Research teams from the School of Electrical Engineering at Xi’an Jiaotong University and the State Key Laboratory of Electrical Materials and Electrical Insulation successfully developed a Ru/Ti3C2Ox@NF bifunctional electrocatalyst for seawater electrolysis. 4. Johnson Matthey and Syensqo achieved efficient recycling and reuse of platinum group metals and ionomers in PEM fuel cells and electrolyzers, significantly reducing carbon footprint. 5. Teams from Xi’an Jiaotong University and Peking University jointly developed a new-type osmium-based catalyst, significantly improving the efficiency and economics of AEM water electrolysis hydrogen production and supporting the scaled deployment of low-cost green hydrogen.

[Australia’s Atlantic Lithium Secured Ghanaian Parliamentary Approval to Develop the Ewoyaa Project] Australia’s Atlantic Lithium secured approval from Ghana’s parliament to develop the Ewoyaa project—the country’s first lithium mine—under revised royalty terms linked to market prices. The approved 15-year lease introduced a sliding royalty scale for spodumene concentrates, set at 5% when prices are below $1,500/mt and 12% when they exceed $3,200/mt, replacing Ghana’s previous fixed 10% rate. The new structure followed broader reforms to the lithium and gold royalty framework passed earlier this month, paving the way for the project. The approval formally backed plans for the mine and processing plant, enabling Atlantic Lithium to advance financing discussions and move toward a final investment decision. The project had stalled after lithium prices pulled back from their peak at the end of 2022, prompting the company to push for more flexible fiscal terms. According to the company, Ewoyaa is expected to produce 3.6 million mt of lithium ore concentrates over 12 years, making it Africa’s third-largest lithium project under development. Atlantic Lithium said the project is the only lithium mine development project on the African continent aligned with the US, standing in sharp contrast to other projects backed by Chinese investment. Half of Ewoyaa’s production has been committed to Elevra Lithium, the merged entity of Piedmont Lithium and Sayona Mining, which had previously signed offtake agreements with Tesla and LG Chem. Company executives said details of the work completed in H2 2025 to improve project economics amid continued lithium price fluctuations and help define the next stage of development will be announced soon. Source: https://www.mining [Yahua Group Signed a Five-Year Spodumene Concentrates Procurement Agreement] Yahua Group announced on March 25 that it recently signed an Offtake and Sales Agreement with MGLIT EMPREENDIMENTOS LTDA (“MGLIT” or the “seller”), under which Yahua Group will purchase spodumene concentrates from MGLIT for five years after MGLIT achieves stable production of spodumene concentrates. In each contract year, the seller shall sell and deliver to Yahua Group no less than 120,000 dry metric tons of spodumene concentrates products. The signing of the agreement will provide multi-channel resource security for the company’s production of lithium chemical products. Source: https://www.cls.cn/telegraph [Atacama Salt Lake Expansion Will Drive Chile’s Lithium Production Growth in 2026] Chile is the world’s second-largest lithium producer after Australia. The country’s lithium metal production is expected to rise 10.1% in 2025 to 64,100 mt, mainly supported by higher production from SQM’s Atacama salt lake operations, driven by ongoing capacity expansion. Chile’s lithium production mainly consists of lithium carbonate sourced from brine in the Atacama salt lake in the Antofagasta Region. SQM and Albemarle are the country’s two major lithium producers, underscoring the high concentration of Chile’s lithium production landscape. Looking ahead, as capacity expansion continues to advance, supported by sustained growth in supply from the Atacama salt lake mine, the country’s lithium production is expected to increase by a further 4.9% in 2026 to 67,300 mt. Source: https://www.mining-technology.com/ [Exide Industries Announces Major Investment in Lithium-Ion Battery Cell Manufacturing] Strategic Investment Positioning in the Evolution of India’s Battery Manufacturing Industry Exide Industries’ investment in lithium-ion battery cell manufacturing marks a pivotal moment for India’s battery manufacturing ecosystem. Traditional energy storage enterprises must navigate between the mature lead-acid battery market and emerging opportunities in lithium-ion batteries. The transformation of this industry reflects broader changes in the global energy storage landscape, driven by the electrification trend. The electrification trend demands higher energy density, faster charging capability, and longer cycle life, performance metrics that traditional battery chemistries cannot meet. In addition, the systematic approach to capital deployment in India’s lithium-ion battery cell manufacturing sector reflects a mature investment pace aligned with production milestones and stages of market development. Recent industry developments indicate that established battery manufacturers are using multi-stage financing structures to maximize operational flexibility while minimizing execution risk as much as possible. Source: https://discoveryalert.com.au/

【SMM Scrap Aluminium Market Analysis】Navigating the Choke Point: How Middle Eastern Geopolitics are Rewiring Global Aluminum Scrap Flows I. Introduction: The Macroeconomic Catalyst The global secondary aluminum market is currently navigating a severe logistical gauntlet. While physical smelting and processing facilities across the Middle East are facing their own localized pressures, the maritime arteries connecting the region to the rest of the world are fundamentally compromised. With vessel traffic heavily restricted through traditional waterways like the Red Sea, carriers are executing widespread, mandatory rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. This geographical detour has introduced hard, quantifiable friction into global trade flows. Transit times from Europe and the Middle East to major Asian main ports have stretched by an additional 12 to 14 days. Consequently, freight costs per container have also reported increases by up to 60-70%. Beyond the immediate ticket price of shipping, this delay translates to millions of dollars in working capital abruptly tied up in floating inventory, severely squeezing liquidity for global traders. To understand the future of secondary aluminum pricing and availability, the market must look at how this disruption cascades across the supply chain. The logistical fallout has created a massive supply shock that is permanently altering working capital dynamics and regional pricing. This structural shift can be traced from Western supply hubs, through the starved processing centers in Southeast Asia, and ultimately to the end-user markets in China and Other Asia, where tightened margins are reshaping the landscape of global scrap procurement. II. The Middle East: The Epicenter of the Bottleneck The Middle East serves as a critical reservoir of scrap aluminum, and current export metrics underscore the massive scale of the material caught in this logistical bottleneck. The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia stand as the undisputed dominant suppliers in the region. Recent mirrored customs data shows the UAE exporting upwards of 309,000 metric tons (MT) in 2025, while Saudi Arabia commands a similar volume, exporting over 277,000 MT in 2024 and up to 260,000 MT by October 2025. Historically, a massive majority of this tonnage has been earmarked for Asian buyers, flowing seamlessly through previously unencumbered maritime routes. India and Korea respectively have been the top 2 export destinations for both the UAE and Saudi Arabia since 2020, with both Asian destinations encompassing a total of 81% for Saudi Arabia’s (2020-2024) and 74% for the UAE’s (2020-2025) total exports of scrap aluminum. Mid-tier exporters further supplement this outward flow. Nations such as Israel (exporting roughly 88,000 to 95,000 MT annually) and Kuwait (over 41,000 to 44,000 MT), alongside consistent volumes from Jordan, Bahrain, and Iran, collectively push significant supplementary tonnage into the global market. Similar to Saudi Arabia and the UAE’s situation, South Asia and South Korea remains the most affected: between the years 2020 to 2025, India, Pakistan and South Korea import 60% of the Middle Eastern mid-tier exporters’ scrap aluminum. However, getting this material onto the water, especially through the Strait of Hormuz has become increasingly complex, expensive and operationally untenable. In response to the waterway risks, localized workarounds are emerging: suppliers are increasingly bypassing traditional choke points by trucking upstream material overland to alternative, safer ports before loading it onto eastbound vessels. Meanwhile, traditional transit bridges are feeling the strain. Typical scrap flows rely on the Red Sea in the Middle East to ship scrap between Europe and Asia, and this traditional trade route is feeling the strain from the current war in the Middle East. Although the Houthis in Yemen have not enforced shipment closures through the Red Sea, the threat of them doing so in extension of Iran’s closure of the Straits of Hormuz is enough to force certain companies and insurance policies off of Middle Eastern shipment routes, and to reroute around Africa and the Cape of Good Hope. This leads to partial extensions of freight times for up to 12-14 days, and some 60% to 70% surge in per container shipment costs between Europe and Asia. The extended transit time is not just a scheduling issue; it translates to millions of dollars in working capital abruptly tied up in floating inventory. As outward flows from the Middle East and Europe slow down under these compounding pressures, the knock-on effect creates an immediate feedstock starvation for the processing hubs waiting further East. III. Asia: The Primary Impact Zone While the logistical friction originates in the West, the financial and operational shockwaves are most acutely felt in the "Other Asia" region, specifically within the Indian and South Korean markets. These nations serve as the primary off-takers for Middle Eastern scrap, and the sudden disruption to their traditional supply lines has triggered a rapid repricing of the market. India: Demand Absorbing the Freight Shock India represents the most immediate example of a market forced to reconcile surging logistics costs with robust domestic demand. As a direct result of the freight spike and logistical difficulties, CIF India prices for key imported grades from Europe like Tense and Taint/Tabor have seen approximately $50 USD per metric ton price hikes over the past week. Critically, this cost burden is not being borne by the sellers alone. Analysis of the current buyer/seller split suggests that recent increases in Indian domestic demand for scrap are providing significant upward pressure on prices. This has allowed a portion of the inflated freight costs to be absorbed by Indian buyers who are prioritizing material security over margin preservation. However, this absorption is not infinite; the $50 USD spike is beginning to significantly tighten margins for local secondary producers, raising concerns about how long this price elasticity can be maintained if transit delays persist. Korea and Japan: Strategic Stockpiling and Regional Procurement In East Asia, the response to the Middle Eastern bottleneck has been characterized by strategic stockpiling and a pivot toward Southeast Asian (SEA) supply. As both Japan and South Korea commonly purchase scrap and secondary products (like ADC12) from the Middle Eastern region, there is a sudden need to replace material sources that have been disrupted directly by the US/Israel-Iran conflict. Primary market intelligence from Southeast and East Asia has seen Japanese (and to a smaller extent, Korean and Indian) players engaging in large-scale procurement of secondary products from Southeast Asia at significant prices. SMM’s data reveals that over the first and second weeks of the Middle Eastern conflict, ADC12 CIF Japan prices have seen significant rises, reaching highs at 3350-60 USD/mt between the 11 th to 17 th of March 2026. This coincides with large amounts of stock clearance and/or signing of procurement deals that extend up till mid-April to early-May. These purchases are occurring at high price points, driven by robust Japanese demand that is effectively outbidding local processors. This "procurement blitz" is rapidly depleting regional liquidity, leaving Southeast Asian hubs starved of the very feedstock they traditionally rely on to serve their own domestic industries. Thailand local ADC12 prices have been observed to be lagging behind FOB prices by 100-200USD/mt, creating a supply starvation for local downstream needs. As of the 26 th of March, market intelligence has revealed a possible second wave of procurement from East Asian nations in Southeast Asia due to increasing worries over the extended war. Prices for ADC12 FOB Thailand and Malaysia deals have been stabilizing around the 3200-3230 USD/t mark as demand slowly creeps back up for both local and foreign demands. Thailand local and FOB ADC12 prices have just closed the gap to be roughly equal, and deals can be observed both within Thailand and exporting towards East and South Asian markets. IV. China: The Regional Exception While the rest of Asia grapples with supply starvation and skyrocketing premiums, China remains a notable outlier in the current crisis. Historically, China’s secondary aluminum sector has maintained a lower direct reliance on Middle Eastern scrap compared to its neighbors in South and East Asia, providing an initial layer of insulation. However, the primary reason for China’s relative stability is internal: a combination of sluggish domestic demand and historically high inventory levels. As of late March 2026, China’s social aluminum inventories have reached a five-year high, effectively acting as a massive buffer against global supply shocks. Furthermore, the LME-SHFE arbitrage window has remained largely unfavorable for primary imports, keeping Chinese buyers on the sidelines. On the secondary side, the lack of specificity and details regarding the reverse invoicing policy have generally led to the secondary aluminum market shifting towards a more passive stance. Downstream demand for secondary aluminum has pivoted towards immediate and small amounts of material to reduce risks associated with reverse invoicing, leading to weak demand within China. While higher global freight costs have increased the baseline cost for any incoming material, the lack of domestic "buy-side" pressure means that China has avoided the aggressive price spikes seen in India, Southeast Asia and Japan. For now, the Chinese market is a spectator to the volatility, characterized more by weak spot fundamentals and unclear policy than by the procurement panic gripping the rest of the continent. V. Strategic Outlook: The New Reality of Trade The current landscape suggests that the global aluminum scrap market is moving toward a "new normal" characterized by higher logistical floors and reduced liquidity. Increasing political and institutional instability in Iran and the wider Middle East creates ever-increasing tension and uncertainty for global trade through the Middle East. The transition from the Middle East to the Cape of Good Hope could possibly no longer be a temporary detour but a structural shift that traders must eventually consider as a safer alternative. In extension to the Middle Eastern conflict, the endurance of the "procurement blitz" in East Asia will serve as a bellwether for the long-term stability of scrap flows in Asia. If the inventory buffer in Southeast Asia remains depleted by aggressive Japanese and Korean bidding, the upward price pressure on Indian buyers will likely move from a temporary spike to a permanent baseline. Local downstream industries from Thailand and Malaysia might also find it hard in the medium-long term to cope with constantly spiking ADC12 prices and competition from East and South Asia. Ultimately, the traditional metrics of secondary aluminum pricing, such as the LME-SHFE spread or local collection rates, are being overshadowed by the premium on logistical certainty. As available aluminum scrap becomes increasingly scarce due to supply disruptions in the Middle East and increased costs for material from Europe, this creates price-side pressure for both producers and downstream industries across Asia. This leads to a zero-sum environment in which increasing costs are either burdened by buyers through increasing prices, heightened competition and larger local-export arbitrages that put pressure on local downstream industries, or burdened by producers and traders through shrinking margins and intense inter-producer competition. As the market adapts to this fragmented landscape, the value proposition of a successful trader is fundamentally shifting: it is no longer defined solely by the ability to source metal, but by the ability to guarantee its arrival through an increasingly volatile and high-risk global supply chain.

SMM Analysis: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China imported 64,900 mt of copper anode (HS code: 74020000) in January 2026, up 5.74% MoM and up 1.48% YoY...