[Geopolitical Tensions Combined With Deferred Interest Rate Cut Expectations Leave SHFE Aluminum Under Short-Term Pressure but Fluctuating at Highs] Against the backdrop of continued tightening LME liquidity, LME aluminum still has upward momentum, with strong support from prices outside China, and is expected to maintain a backwardation structure in the short term. China remains in a phase of high inventory coupled with weak fundamentals, and its upward momentum is significantly weaker than that outside China. Amid divergent domestic and external drivers, the SHFE/LME price ratio is expected to continue weakening, and aluminum prices are still expected to fluctuate at highs in the short term.

Recently, Kawasaki Heavy Industries of Japan and Kobe Steel jointly announced that the world’s first next-generation hydrogen-fueled power generation system for hydrogen-based power generation had officially commenced operation. The system features a liquid hydrogen energy supply model and is designed to provide stable power for future large gas turbine generators, filling the global technological gap in direct liquid hydrogen supply for power generation. The newly commissioned system was developed under the NEDO-funded project in Japan, “Development of Technologies to Improve Hydrogen-Fueled Power Generation Efficiency and Performance Under the Hydrogen CGS Regional Model,” and was deployed at the Kobe Hydrogen Energy Center on Port Island in Kobe. It is the world’s first hydrogen supply power generation system to adopt an intermediate fluid vaporizer (IFV) for hydrogen together with a liquid hydrogen pump , enabling liquid hydrogen to be pressurized above critical pressure and directly supplying hydrogen fuel to power plants in a stable manner. The project had a clear division of responsibilities: Kawasaki Heavy Industries was responsible for optimizing the liquid hydrogen pressurization fuel supply system for gas turbine generators, while Kobe Steel focused on the R&D of IFV equipment utilizing the cold energy of liquid hydrogen. At present, demonstration tests have successfully delivered hydrogen fuel to a wet gas turbine, and subsequent hydrogen supply tests for a dry gas turbine will be carried out, with a focus on verifying operating performance under high summer temperature conditions as well as the long-term operational reliability of the liquid hydrogen pump.

Recently, Chengdu Xinyan Hydrogen Energy Technology Co., Ltd. completed the batch delivery of 48 hydrogen-powered heavy-duty trucks in the 49-mt class, marking not only a major breakthrough in the market-oriented deployment of the enterprise’s hydrogen-powered commercial vehicles, but also demonstrating its strength in large-scale operations and further accelerating Chengdu’s hydrogen energy industry toward commercialization and clustering. The delivered vehicles were manufactured by Sinotruk Chengshang and equipped with the large-power hydrogen fuel cell system independently developed by Chengdu Xinyan. With high reliability and strong load-bearing capacity, they are well suited to trunk logistics and bulk transportation scenarios. Combined with local hydrogen refueling network support and Sichuan’s expressway toll reduction and exemption policies, they can provide clients with a green, efficient, and low-cost transportation solution. As a core period of the “Chengdu-Chongqing Hydrogen Corridor,” Chengdu is accelerating the development of an ecological system spanning the entire industry chain of “production, storage, transportation, refueling, and application.” Multiple provincial- and municipal-level policies are supporting the promotion of hydrogen-powered vehicles. The operation of these heavy-duty trucks will further drive coordinated development across the upstream and downstream industry chain and foster a virtuous industrial cycle. As hydrogen energy has become a hot topic at this year’s national Two Sessions, with the industry focusing on the large-scale application of fuel cell vehicles, Chengdu Xinyan’s delivery responds to the national strategy with concrete action, supports Chengdu in building a highland for the hydrogen energy industry in western China, and injects new momentum into the region’s green transformation.

On March 11, Pan Xueyuan, Member of the Standing Committee of the Yangzhou Municipal Party Committee and Executive Vice Mayor of Yangzhou, led a team to Yizheng Economic and Technological Development Zone to survey the construction progress of the CIMC Green Hydrogen Zero-Carbon Equipment Industrial Park, a key provincial project in Jiangsu. He inspected the construction progress on site, inquired about the construction plan, key challenges, and industrial layout, and required that the leading role of chain-leading hydrogen energy enterprises be fully leveraged to coordinate efforts to bring the project into operation and deliver results at an early date. Meng Dehe, Secretary of the Yizheng Municipal Party Committee, and Yu Lei, Executive Vice Mayor, accompanied the visit, while Li Jie, General Manager of CIMC Jidian and CIMC Zhongdian, and his delegation reported on the work. In front of the project planning display board, Pan Xueyuan focused on learning about the industrial park’s product layout. The project covered a total area of 150 mu, with plant space of approximately 60,000 m², and included a 15-mu supporting detection and R&D testing base. After reaching full production, it was expected to produce 2 GW of electrolyzers and hydrogen-ammonia-methanol series equipment annually. With the goal of becoming a nationally leading supplier of hydrogen-based energy equipment, the enterprise laid out the full value chain of alkaline, PEM, and AEM electrolyzers, skid-mounted hydrogen production plants, and green ammonia and green methanol equipment, which Pan Xueyuan highly affirmed. As a chain-leading enterprise in the hydrogen energy industry chain at both the provincial and municipal levels, CIMC Zhongdian will join hands with CIMC Raffles Group to integrate industry resources and build a green hydrogen equipment industry chain. Next, with the support of the local government, the enterprise will build “two centers and two platforms,” continue to lead industry innovation, and support the high-quality development of the green hydrogen industry in Yizheng and Yangzhou as a whole.

On March 12, 2026, the UK Trade Remedies Authority issued a notice announcing its affirmative final anti-dumping determination on tinplate (Tin Mill Products) originating in China. It determined that Shougang Group had a dumping margin of 27.85, an injury margin of 62.39, and an anti-dumping duty of 27.85; other exporters had a dumping margin of 49.98, an injury margin of 88.00, and an anti-dumping duty of 49.98. It recommended imposing anti-dumping duties on the products concerned from China for a period of five years. The UK HS codes of the products concerned are 7210 11 00 10, 7210 11 00 90, 7210 12 20 10, 7210 12 20 90, 7210 12 80 10, 7210 12 80 90, 7210 50 00 10, 7210 50 00 90, 7210 70 10 15, 7210 70 10 91, 7210 70 80 20, 7210 70 80 25, 7210 70 80 92, 7210 70 80 95, 7210 90 30 00, 7210 90 40 10, 7210 90 40 90, 7210 90 80 20, 7210 90 80 91, 7210 90 80 99, 7212 10 10 00, 7212 10 90 11, 7212 10 90 19, 7212 10 90 90, 7212 30 00 20, 7212 30 00 30, 7212 30 00 80, 7212 40 20 10, 7212 40 20 91, 7212 40 20 93, 7212 40 20 99, 7212 40 80 12, 7212 40 80 15, 7212 40 80 30, 7212 40 80 35, 7212 40 80 80, 7212 40 80 82, 7212 40 80 85, 7212 40 80 87, 7212 50 20 11, 7212 50 20 19, and 7212 50 20 90. The dumping investigation period was from April 1, 2023 to March 31, 2024, and the injury investigation period was from April 1, 2020 to March 31, 2024. On September 25, 2024, the UK Trade Remedies Authority issued a notice announcing the initiation of an anti-dumping investigation into tinplate originating in China, upon an application filed by UK enterprise TATA STEEL UKLIMITED. (Compiled and translated from the official website of the UK Trade Remedies Service) Original text: https://www.trade-remedies.service.gov.uk/public/case/AD0062/submission/034ccc6a-89ce-4ac3-bcd5-26464f3fc5be/

On March 9, Dr. Ali Alshehhi, General Manager of the China Office of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), led a delegation to visit SinoHytec New Energy for a survey, where the two sides discussed hydrogen energy cooperation and pathways for energy transition. Accompanied by senior executives including Chairman Zhou Mingqiang and Qu Youyou, Vice President of the Outside China Business Division, the company introduced its recent progress in industrialisation and scaled development. The delegation toured SinoHytec New Energy’s four major centers for R&D, testing, exhibition, and sales, and learned about the company’s technological capabilities and commercial achievements across the entire hydrogen energy industry chain. Zhou Mingqiang also responded on site to concerns from the industry. ADNOC is a wholly state-owned energy giant of the UAE. Founded in 1971, it controls about 10% of the world’s oil reserves. Its business spans the entire oil and gas industry chain, and it is accelerating its deployment in blue hydrogen, green hydrogen, and CCUS to advance its low-carbon transition. In April 2025, ADNOC set up an office in Beijing, positioning China as a core market and focusing on expanding China-UAE cooperation in the hydrogen energy sector. During the discussion, Dr. Ali Alshehhi asked whether the company’s industrial deployment across multiple locations would disperse the supply chain and affect market expansion. Zhou Mingqiang responded that the nationwide layout was designed to build a coordinated industrial closed loop by leveraging local resource endowments, enabling precise alignment between localized production and market demand, effectively improving supply chain efficiency and supporting the large-scale deployment of hydrogen energy. The two sides held in-depth exchanges on topics including diversified energy development, the expansion of hydrogen energy application scenarios, industry chain coordination, and energy security. They also exchanged views on the global energy landscape, built consensus on cooperation, and laid a foundation for subsequent practical cooperation.

Iran’s threat to drive oil prices up to $200 a barrel may sound like hyperbole, but as the energy crisis persisted, that outcome already looked more likely than US President Trump’s prediction that oil prices would soon pull back to pre-war levels… The conflict involving Israel and the US against Iran entered its third week — and escalated into one spanning the entire Middle East — yet the global oil benchmark’s response so far was surprisingly “mediocre.” Brent crude oil was currently trading near $100 a barrel, up about 65 from the start of the year. Although that level would have been unimaginable just a few weeks ago, it still remained below last Monday’s brief peak of nearly $120. Given that since the conflict began, the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz had trapped about one-fifth of global oil supply — roughly 20 million barrels a day — crude oil prices should, in theory, have been much higher. That seemed to suggest investors still retained a degree of trust in Trump , betting that the crisis would be resolved quickly and that the Strait of Hormuz would soon reopen — whether it was called the “Trump put,” the “TACO trade,” or “buy Trump,” many oil traders appeared to be wagering that the president would ultimately be able to limit the market damage. “When this is over, oil prices will come down very, very quickly,” Trump said on Monday this week. Yet that optimism looked increasingly difficult to reconcile with realities on the ground — whether on a battlefield where the conflict was intensifying, or in the physical oil market, where supply bottlenecks were steadily spreading. Signals Being Overlooked In fact, the physical crude oil market was sending an increasing number of stress signals, even though the international benchmark “paper oil” market had so far largely ignored them. Although trade had stalled under the impact of the Iran conflict, Middle Eastern crude benchmarks still surged to record highs, making them the most expensive crude in the world. The spike in these benchmark indicators, which are used to price millions of barrels of Middle Eastern crude sold to Asia, was raising costs for Asian refiners and forcing them to seek alternatives or make further production cuts in the coming months. S&P Global Platts said Dubai spot crude assessments for May-loading cargoes hit a record $157.66 a barrel on Tuesday, surpassing the previous all-time high of $147.5 set by Brent crude oil futures in 2008. That left Dubai crude’s premium to swaps at $60.82 a barrel, compared with an average premium of just 90¢ in February. Meanwhile, Oman crude oil futures hit a record high of $152.58 per barrel on Tuesday, with its premium to the Dubai swap set at $55.74 per barrel, versus an average premium of just 75¢ in February. Oman crude oil is exported from a terminal outside the Strait of Hormuz. This surge reflected massive uncertainty over actually available supply in the Middle East after Iran repeatedly attacked Oman's oil terminal and the UAE's major oil export terminal of Fujairah outside the Strait of Hormuz. Are Brent and WTI Failing to Reflect the "True Severity" of the Oil Market? As JPMorgan's head of commodities, Natasha Kaneva, pointed out in her latest research note on Tuesday , there was a clear mismatch between international benchmark crude pricing and the Middle Eastern geography of the supply disruptions. The core issue was that Brent and WTI are benchmark indicators at opposite ends of the Atlantic basin, while the current shock is concentrated in the Middle East. As a result, these benchmark crude prices were particularly influenced by relatively loose regional fundamentals—commercial oil inventory in both the US and Europe were ample in early 2026, and supply across the Atlantic basin was also relatively abundant in the short term. In addition, expectations for a release from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR)—as well as a partial release that will soon materialize—further eased prompt tightness in Brent- and WTI-linked markets. By contrast, Middle Eastern crude benchmarks such as Dubai and Oman more accurately reflected the current dislocation in the physical market. Dubai and Oman spot prices were both trading above $150 per barrel, underscoring the severity of crude oil shortages originating in the Gulf region. These Middle Eastern oil prices were directly affected by export disruptions and therefore more effectively reflected marginal supply deficits than Atlantic-linked crude prices. Crucially, trade geography intensified this dynamic. Most of the crude transported via the Strait of Hormuz goes to Asia—before the outbreak of the Middle East conflict, about 11.2 million barrels of crude and 1.4 million barrels of refined products flowed through the strait to Asia each day. As a result, the direct physical shortage—and the surge in oil prices—was concentrated in Asian markets most dependent on Gulf crude. In fact, early signs of demand destruction had already emerged in Asia as product prices surged and spot crude became prohibitively expensive. JPMorgan noted that timing effects further reinforced this divergence. A typical voyage from Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries to Asia takes about 10 to 15 days, while cargoes bound for Europe via the Suez Canal require nearly 25 to 30 days, or 35 to 45 days if rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope. Therefore, the impact of disrupted Gulf flows would hit Asian markets sooner and more severely, while Atlantic Basin benchmarks such as Brent and WTI would enjoy a longer buffer because of surplus inventory and slower supply adjustments. The US, with crude oil production exceeding 13 million barrels per day, would be affected the least. JPMorgan believed that, in this context, the apparent price stability shown by Brent and WTI should not be taken as evidence of adequate global supply. It reflected a temporary buffer created by regional surplus inventory, benchmark composition, and policy intervention. In fact, for refiners, especially those in Asia, the current crude oil shortage had already become a serious problem. About 60% of the region’s crude oil imports depended on the Middle East, and the difficulty of finding alternative, timely supplies was rapidly becoming acute. The pressure had already forced many countries into painful adjustments. Refiners across Asia had begun cutting run rates to conserve dwindling inventory. Some countries had banned exports of refined products, a defensive move that could further tighten the global market. As the crude oil shortage worsened, refined product prices surged. Asian jet fuel prices were approaching $200 a barrel, near the record high of about $220 reached earlier this month. The Crisis Could Spread Further Ultimately, this crisis was expected to extend beyond Asia. Data from analytics firm Kpler showed that Europe accounted for about three-quarters of Middle Eastern jet fuel exports shipped through the Strait of Hormuz last year—about 379,000 barrels per day—but since the conflict began, no such cargoes had passed through the strait. Unsurprisingly, jet fuel barge prices in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp refining hub had surged to a record $190 a barrel, exceeding the previous peak set after the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February 2022. The comparison with the Russia-Ukraine crisis may be even more compelling. Before the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, Russia supplied about 30% of Europe’s crude oil imports and one-third of its refined product imports. As traders feared Europe would lose supplies from one of the world’s largest oil producers, Brent crude rose to $130 a barrel after the Russia-Ukraine conflict—even though that worst-case scenario never fully materialized in the end. By contrast, according to Morgan Stanley, the physical disruption caused by the Iran conflict had already exceeded that level of concern by more than threefold. Even if the Strait of Hormuz were to reopen immediately, it would not bring immediate relief. According to the International Energy Agency, about 10 million barrels per day of production in the Middle East has been shut in since the conflict began. Restoring these flows will take weeks, if not months. To be sure, the oil market entered the Iran conflict in a relatively loose state, and the International Energy Agency had projected that global supply would exceed demand by about 3.7 million barrels per day. But that surplus has now been erased by the current turmoil. Last week, the International Energy Agency announced plans to release a record 400 million barrels from member countries' strategic petroleum reserves, which will help cushion the initial shock. But drawing down inventories cannot substitute for deliveries of new oil. In other words, the supply shock to the oil market is real and may persist. Once the Strait of Hormuz finally reopens, oil prices could initially plunge in a relief rebound, but given the harsh realities of the physical market, traders may need to think twice before betting that the return to normalcy promised by Trump is about to arrive…

Recently, two hydrogen-powered excavators, two hydrogen-powered loaders, and four hydrogen-powered wide-body mining trucks were officially put into operation in the Jinshan mining area, marking the implementation of the integrated “production, storage, refueling, transportation, and use” layout of Daye’s hydrogen energy industry in the application segment. This achieved the large-scale use of hydrogen-powered heavy engineering equipment in mining areas across China and injected new momentum into the green, low-carbon transformation of mines. As core equipment developed by Taiyuan Heavy Machinery, the TZ350EH hydrogen-powered excavator and TZ958EH hydrogen-powered loader worked in coordination with hydrogen-powered wide-body mining trucks, covering the entire process of mining, loading, and transportation. The equipment emitted only pure water, thoroughly improving the operating environment of traditional mining areas. This batch of hydrogen-powered equipment was deeply optimized for the complex working conditions of mines, with prominent core advantages: the hydrogen-powered excavator featured zero emissions and low noise, and could operate at full load after just five minutes of hydrogen refueling; the hydrogen-powered loader integrated hydrogen power with heavy-load performance and, equipped with proprietary technology, reduced consumption and improved efficiency; the hydrogen-powered wide-body mining truck offered fast energy replenishment, a high energy recovery rate, and excellent low-temperature starting performance, laying a solid foundation for green transportation. This large-scale deployment enabled hydrogen-powered equipment to undergo practical verification in real mining scenarios. It not only opened up a new path for the clean replacement of mining equipment, but also stabilized market demand for upstream hydrogen production, storage, and transportation, promoted coordinated development across the upstream and downstream segments of the hydrogen energy industry chain, and provided a replicable and scalable practical model for transforming traditional mining areas into green and intelligent mines.

[SMM Zinc Morning Comment] Overnight, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2605 contract opened at 23,680 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE zinc briefly rose to a high of 23,685 yuan/mt, after which bears added to their positions and SHFE zinc fluctuated downward all the way, hitting a low of 23,440 yuan/mt near the close. It finally closed down at 23,455 yuan/mt, down 275 yuan/mt, or 1.16%. Trading volume fell to 39,416 lots, and open interest increased by 10,738 lots to 91,209 lots.

SMM News, March 18: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,922.5/mt. In early trading, LME lead fell rapidly to a low of $1,913/mt. During the Asian session, LME lead fluctuated upward, reaching a high of $1,932/mt, after which bears regained control and SHFE lead turned downward. Entering the European session, LME lead dropped sharply before beginning to rebound in fluctuations, with prices posting wide swings in the $1,921-1,931/mt range. It finally closed at $1,926/mt, up $1/mt, or 0.05%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2604 contract opened at 16,635 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE lead edged up to a high of 16,685 yuan/mt, then came under pressure and pulled back to a low of 16,595 yuan/mt. SHFE lead showed a sideways movement overall during the night session, with prices posting wide swings in the 16,620-16,685 yuan/mt range from intraday to the close, and finally closing at 16,670 yuan/mt. It recorded a small bullish candlestick, up 70 yuan/mt, or 0.42%. At present, inventory at primary lead smelters continued to decline, while suppliers held firm on quotes and showed a clear reluctance to sell. Losses at secondary lead enterprises widened, and most producers adopted a wait-and-see attitude and were reluctant to sell, leading to some tightening in overall effective market supply. After restocking at low levels, downstream battery plants slowed their procurement pace, and downstream demand remained weak. The overall pattern of weak supply and weak demand persisted. Lead prices are expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term. Subsequent price moves require close attention to geopolitical factors, changes in operating rates at secondary lead enterprises in mid-to-late March, and actual downstream procurement conditions.