Gold has been pulled in two directions in recent weeks. On one side, rising oil prices and escalating geopolitical tensions have strengthened the metal’s safe-haven appeal.

[SMM Steel] Nucor Corporation reported record quarterly steel shipments of 7.4 mln short tons in Q1 2026, up 8.7% YoY, marking the highest level in its history. Orders also reached 4.7 mln short tons, the strongest since Q2 2021. The performance reflects solid mill execution and contributions from new capacity, alongside strong demand from data centers and the energy sector. Nucor expects full-year shipments to grow by over 5%, supported by favorable demand conditions and ongoing trade protection measures.

SMM April 30: The CPC Central Committee Political Bureau meeting proposed to "effectively prevent and resolve risks in key areas, strive to stabilize the real estate market, and solidly advance urban renewal." On April 29, the Shenzhen Municipal Housing and Construction Bureau issued a notice to further optimize real estate regulation policies. The Guangdong 15th Five-Year Plan outline calls for accelerating the construction of a new model for real estate development, implementing city-specific policies to increase supply of essential and upgrading housing. Six departments including the Zhuhai Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau optimized and adjusted local real estate policy measures... Industry fundamentals simultaneously recovered at the margin: the latest data from the China Index Academy showed that total bond financing in the real estate sector in March was up 5.7% YoY and up 48.4% MoM, with the financing environment continuing to improve. Meanwhile, new home transactions in Guangzhou rose significantly MoM, leading first-tier cities. Multiple policy dividends, financing improvements, and recovering property market transactions resonated together, jointly driving the real estate development sector higher. As of the market close on April 30, the real estate development sector rose 1.52%. In terms of individual stocks: Jintou Chengkai, Jinrongjie, Wantong Development, Quzhou Development, and Beichen Industrial hit the daily limit, while Zhongzhou Holdings, Greenland Holdings, Sanxiang Impression, Hefei Urban Construction, and Jingtou Development led gains. News [CPC Central Committee Political Bureau Held a Meeting to Analyze and Study the Current Economic Situation and Economic Work] The CPC Central Committee Political Bureau held a meeting on April 28 to analyze and study the current economic situation and economic work. CPC Central Committee General Secretary Xi Jinping presided over the meeting. The meeting noted that since the beginning of this year, the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core has strengthened overall leadership over economic work, taking a holistic and forward-looking approach. All regions and departments have acted proactively and implemented comprehensive policies. China's economy got off to a strong start, with major indicators exceeding expectations, demonstrating strong resilience and vitality. At the same time, there are some difficulties and challenges, and the foundation for sustained and steady economic improvement needs further consolidation. Confidence should be strengthened, and economic work should be pursued with greater intensity and more practical measures. The meeting pointed out the need to effectively prevent and resolve risks in key areas. Efforts should be made to stabilize the real estate market and solidly advance urban renewal. Local government debt risks should be resolved in an orderly manner, with focus on addressing the issue of overdue payments to enterprises. Reform of small and medium-sized financial institutions should be promoted, and confidence in the capital market should be stabilized and strengthened. [Shenzhen Municipal Housing and Construction Bureau Issued a Notice on Further Optimizing and Adjusting Local Real Estate-Related Policies] On April 29, the Shenzhen Municipal Housing and Construction Bureau issued a notice to further optimize real estate regulation policies. Purchase restrictions: eligible resident families can purchase one additional housing unit in Futian, Nanshan, and Bao'an Xin'an Subdistrict; non-Shenzhen-hukou families with valid residence permits can also purchase one unit in the above areas. Housing provident fund: the maximum family loan amount was raised to 1.3 million yuan, with first-home buyers and multi-child families eligible for up to 70% upward adjustment. The new policy takes effect from April 30. [Guangdong 15th Five-Year Plan Outline: Accelerating the Construction of a New Model for Real Estate Development, Increasing Rigid and Improvement-oriented Housing Supply Based on City-specific Policies] The Outline of Guangdong Province's 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development was officially released, mentioning accelerating the construction of a new model for real estate development, improving the housing system featuring multi-entity supply, multi-channel guarantee, and both rental and purchase options, striving to stabilize the real estate market and comprehensively enhancing residential quality. City-specific policies will increase rigid and improvement-oriented housing supply, expand supply of both large and small units, appropriately develop high-quality housing meeting the needs of high-net-worth individuals, and better satisfy diversified improvement-oriented housing demand. [China Index Academy: March Real Estate Bond Financing Total Up 48.4% MoM] Latest data from China Index Academy showed that in Q1 2026, financing support policies for real estate enterprises remained accommodative with more diversified financing instruments. Bond financing scale was flat YoY, with credit bonds and ABS remaining the dominant instruments. In March, total real estate bond financing was up 5.7% YoY and up 48.4% MoM. [Guangzhou New Home Transactions Surge MoM, Leading First-tier Cities] Since the beginning of this year, the Guangzhou real estate market has shown clear signs of recovery. In March, new home volume and prices rose simultaneously, and the "mini spring" momentum continued into April. NBS data showed that Guangzhou new home selling prices were up 0.3% MoM in March, with 7,059 new home online signings citywide, up 241% MoM and up 26.67% YoY. Trading volume and price gains led first-tier cities. Entering April, the Guangzhou market maintained a steady upward trend. According to institutional monitoring, mid-April weekly new home transactions rebounded 5.4% WoW, with project visits and subscriptions in core areas remaining at high levels. By district, Tianhe District, as the core of Guangzhou's main urban area, led the city in transaction activity. In March, Tianhe District new home transactions surged over 500% MoM, ranking first among all 11 districts and becoming the strongest support for this round of Guangzhou's "mini spring." Destocking cycles in core district sub-markets continued to shorten, improvement-oriented demand was concentrated in release, and multiple high-grade projects saw strong sales. (Zhitong Finance) [China Index Academy: National Real Estate Market Still Consolidating at Lows in Q1, Floor Space of New Commercial Buildings Sold Continued to Pull Back YoY] Zhitong Finance APP learned that China Index Academy stated that in Q1 2026, the national real estate market was still consolidating at lows, with the floor space of new commercial buildings sold continuing to pull back YoY. Against this backdrop, quality projects in core cities maintained relatively stable sales performance. According to China Index data, the top 20 projects by sales in key cities in Q1 recorded a combined transaction value exceeding 50 billion yuan, with first-tier city projects occupying 12 spots. CITIC City Development·Xinyue Bay in Nanshan District, Shenzhen topped the list with 6.55 billion yuan in signed contract value, followed by Shenzhen Bay Yunxi and Guangzhou Poly Yuexi Bay in second and third place respectively. [Xinhua Commentary: Stabilization Signals Strengthening, Further Consolidating the Foundation for Real Estate High-Quality Development] The property market's "Golden March, Silver April" is showing initial warmth, with market expectations undergoing positive changes. A series of signals indicate that the real estate market, led by first-tier and hot second-tier cities as "bellwethers," is showing a strengthening trend of stabilization, with industry confidence entering a sustained recovery track. This is not a simple stabilization, but rather the real estate market accumulating momentum to consolidate at lows and recover after undergoing deep adjustment. From adjusting and optimizing housing provident fund policies to the normalization of urban real estate financing coordination mechanisms, from housing trade-in policies to intensified efforts in purchasing existing commercial housing for use as affordable housing, the more precise and forceful policy measures since the beginning of this year have consolidated the foundation for real estate high-quality development. The stable and healthy development of the real estate market is related to economic performance and people's well-being. Against the backdrop of continued advancement of new-type urbanization, optimizing and adjusting existing stock and achieving a higher level of "housing for all" is a requirement for sustainable economic and social development. Looking toward the "15th Five-Year Plan" development goals, accelerating transformation with more precise and forceful measures, balancing short-term market stabilization with long-term institutional improvement, is the way to truly drive real estate to achieve high-quality development. [Lujiazui: Residential Sales Contract Value at 9.343 Billion Yuan in 2025, Up 28% YoY] Lujiazui announced that from January to December 2025, the company achieved real estate leasing cash inflows of 3.763 billion yuan, down 10% YoY; equity leasing cash inflows were 3.071 billion yuan, down 10% YoY. Contract sales of residential properties totaled 9.343 billion yuan, up 28% YoY, with equity contract sales of 6.283 billion yuan, up 25% YoY. Cash inflows from residential property sales reached 10.791 billion yuan, up 76% YoY, with equity sales cash inflows of 7.104 billion yuan, up 64% YoY. Cash inflows from office project sales were 641 million yuan, with equity sales cash inflows of 353 million yuan. Newly started GFA was 163,900 m², and completed GFA was 410,200 m². [China Merchants Shekou Secured Two Land Parcels in Shanghai in One Day, with the Xuhui Botanical Garden Plot at a 25% Premium] On April 21, during Shanghai's third land auction of 2026, the plot xh290-09 in the S031201 unit of Xuhui District was acquired by Shanghai Zhaohui Qingya Real Estate Development Co., Ltd. for 3.3 billion yuan after 82 rounds of bidding, at a floor price of approximately 87,000/m² and a premium rate of 25%. Excluding the 3,500 m² of mandatory construction, the available-for-sale floor cost was approximately 96,000/m². The plot attracted 9 bidders, including Shanghai Chengtou, China Merchants Shekou, CNOOC, the "C&D+Xiangyu" consortium, Yuexiu, the "Poly+West Bund" consortium, CR Land, Greentown, and the "Jinmao+Qingneng" consortium. [Six Departments Including Zhuhai Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau Optimized and Adjusted Local Real Estate Policy Measures] Six departments including Zhuhai Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau issued a notice on optimizing and adjusting local real estate policy measures. The notice proposed optimizing housing provident fund loan policies. First, raising the maximum housing provident fund loan limits. For those eligible for provident fund loans, the maximum personal housing loan limits for single and dual-contributor employee families were adjusted from 800,000 yuan to 1 million yuan and from 1.3 million yuan to 1.5 million yuan, respectively. Second, expanding the scope of home purchase support for multi-child families. When multi-child families purchase a second self-use residence and apply for provident fund loans, the loan amount may be increased by 20% above the eligible loan amount, but shall not exceed the city's maximum provident fund loan limit. Third, raising the loan amount increase ratio for purchasing green buildings. When contributing employees purchase commercial housing that meets the national two-star green building standard or commercial housing certified as prefabricated construction projects, the loan amount may be increased by 20% above the eligible loan amount, but shall not exceed the city's maximum provident fund loan limit; for commercial housing meeting the national three-star green building standard, the loan amount may be increased by 30% above the eligible loan amount, but shall not exceed the city's maximum provident fund loan limit. [Foshan Launched Trade-in Program for Commercial Housing!First batch involving 22 housing projects] Recently, the "Notice on Organizing the First Batch of Commercial Housing 'Trade-in' Program by Foshan Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau" was officially released. This is not a simple encouragement document, but a systematic solution to unblock replacement bottlenecks through model innovation and a policy package. It promotes the real estate market's transition from "one-sided transactions" to "a virtuous cycle between existing and incremental housing," achieving a win-win outcome for residents, enterprises, and the market. The innovation of Foshan's trade-in policy lies in introducing multiple real estate enterprises to participate jointly: Foshan Anju, Chancheng Anju, Nanhai Youju, Shunde Chengtie, Gaoming Airport Construction, and Sanshui Anju serve as acquisition entities; Foshan Chengfa, Foshan Urban Renewal, Foshan Lianzhi, Heyue Yaji, Shunkong Chengtou, Yongdeli Commerce, Sanshui Chanfa, and Miaohui Real Estate provide new housing sources. This model determines the value of existing homes through negotiation, sets a "contract termination protection period" to avoid blindly pushing for lower prices, thereby completing the "sell old, buy new" closed loop and serving as a market stabilizer. [China Real Estate News: Make good and flexible use of policies to strengthen efforts in stabilizing the property market] China Real Estate News published a commentary article. In this opening year, the real estate market achieved encouraging results in its upward and stable trajectory. In terms of transaction data, from Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenzhen, to Nanjing, Hangzhou, Changchun, Yinchuan, and Dalian, and further to Yichang, Ningbo, and Yantai across all city tiers, the property market at the start of this year exuded signs of recovery. Both new and second-hand housing markets showed clear momentum of activity, with cities like Shanghai and Beijing even showing obvious transaction expansion signals. In March, Shanghai's second-hand housing online signed transactions reached 31,215 units, the highest in nearly five years; Beijing's new commercial housing transactions exceeded 3,600 units, more than tripling from February. From the national perspective, the property market also exhibited increasingly strong structural recovery characteristics. Real estate stable development has always been closely linked to financial and tax policy. Every subtle policy optimization and empowerment adds "lubricant" at critical junctures of market operation, reducing the "friction coefficient." Currently, the market has shown a positive "Golden March, Silver April" trend, which is also a critical period for efforts to stabilize the real estate market. Local governments should strive to act where policies can make a difference and intensify efforts where action is warranted. This approach is ultimately anchored in the two short-term and long-term goals of stabilizing the real estate market and promoting high-quality development of real estate, continuously enhancing the certainty and sustainability of China's real estate stability and high-quality development. [Jiangsu Taizhou: Encouraging State-Owned Enterprises and Real Estate Development Enterprises to Launch Shared-Ownership Commercial Housing for Sale to Young People, New Urban Residents and Other Groups] The Notice on Implementing Several Measures to Stabilise the Real Estate Market, jointly issued by the Taizhou Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau and the Municipal Finance Bureau, officially took effect on the 17th. It proposed increasing housing purchase support for "young and new resident groups," implementing loan interest subsidies for "young talents." For young talents who use housing provident fund and commercial loans to purchase their first new commercial housing in the urban area, a 2% fiscal interest subsidy on the loan amount will be provided annually for a period of 2 years. Meanwhile, it supports shared-ownership commercial housing pilot programmes, encouraging state-owned enterprises and real estate development enterprises to launch shared-ownership commercial housing for sale to young people, new urban residents and other groups. [NDRC: Focusing on Expanding Effective Domestic Demand, to Formulate the 2026–2030 Implementation Plan for Expanding Domestic Demand Strategy] On 17 April, the State Council Information Office held a thematic press conference in the series of "Getting Off to a Good Start in the 15th Five-Year Plan Period," introducing the high-quality economic and social development during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. Wang Changlin, Deputy Director of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), stated that since the beginning of this year, the economy has shown positive changes, with notable improvements on both the supply and demand sides, better playing the role of a global economic stabiliser, and performing better than the expectations of many institutions and experts in and outside China. Going forward, efforts will focus on five areas. First, implementing a macro policy package, preparing a batch of comprehensive policy measures in advance and rolling them out in a timely manner as needed; second, focusing on expanding effective domestic demand, formulating the 2026–2030 implementation plan for expanding domestic demand strategy, and promoting the early commencement of qualified major projects; third, strengthening scientific and technological innovation, accelerating the development of emerging industries, deeply implementing the AI+ initiative, fostering new forms of intelligent economy, thoroughly implementing the spirit of the national services industry conference, and advancing the mechanism for expanding the services sector; fourth, intensifying efforts to stabilise employment and boost incomes, implementing the action plan for stabilising jobs, expanding capacity and improving quality, formulating and implementing income growth plans for urban and rural residents, strengthening inclusive and basic livelihood programmes, and enhancing social security for vulnerable groups; fifth, consolidating the foundation for safe development, making every effort to ensure supply and stabilise prices of energy resources, grain and other important livelihood commodities, accelerating the construction of a new-type energy system, and working to stabilise the real estate market. [National New Commercial Housing Sales Reached Approximately 1.73 Trillion Yuan in Q1, with the "Little Spring" Rally Driving Month-on-Month Increases in Both Volume and Price in March] On 16 April, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released the basic situation of the national real estate market for January–March 2026. Data showed that in Q1, the decline in national commercial housing sales narrowed significantly compared to the first two months. Driven by the "mini spring boom," both volume and price rose in March alone. However, supply-side indicators such as development investment and new construction starts remained in a downward range, with the overall market still consolidating at lows and recovering. Wang Xiaoqiang, chief analyst at Linping Residential Big Data Research Institute, noted that in terms of monthly performance, national new commercial housing saw both volume and price rise in March, with sales area and sales revenue up 10.1% and 10.9% YoY respectively, and an average selling price of 8,870 yuan/m², up 0.7% MoM. Driven by the traditional spring peak season, trading volume in March rebounded significantly from February. However, based on cumulative data, Q1 national new housing transactions remained weaker than the same period last year, with the market still in a consolidation phase. [Zhengzhou Introduces 8 New Housing Policies] On April 10, the Zhengzhou Housing Security and Real Estate Administration Bureau issued the "Notice on Further Stabilizing the Real Estate Market." 1. Supporting young people in home purchases. Financial institutions are encouraged to offer specialized financial products and services to young people under 35 who come to Zhengzhou for employment or entrepreneurship, better meeting their diversified housing credit needs. 2. Strengthening home purchase support for multi-child families. Multi-child families that already own one home locally may apply for housing provident fund loans with a maximum loan amount 20% higher than the family's first-home loan cap when purchasing another commercial residence. 3. Implementing down payment ratios for commercial property loans. Financial institutions are guided to implement the policy of a minimum down payment ratio of no less than 30% for commercial property purchase loans. 4. Clarifying standards for determining the number of homes owned. When purchasing a new home within the city, only the buyer's housing status in the administrative district where the intended property is located will be checked; those with no housing will be recognized as first-home buyers. 5. Optimizing provident fund loan application conditions. Before December 31, 2026, when applicants meet other existing loan conditions and have no outstanding provident fund loan balance, they may apply for housing provident fund loans under first-time loan policies when purchasing upgrade housing. 6. Increasing affordable rental housing supply. Through multiple channels including acquisition, new construction, and conversion, supply will be effectively increased, with 10,000 units allocated in 2026; the application and allocation process will be optimized to improve efficiency and fairness, leveraging housing's role in attracting and retaining talent. 7. Improving supporting public services. Families that have purchased commercial housing and actually moved in may enjoy basic public services such as school district enrollment for school-age children by presenting their online-registered commercial housing sales contracts. 8. Implementing a "one property, one code" system for second-hand housing. Information disclosure in the second-hand housing market will be strengthened, with enhanced property verification and code assignment. Using trading platforms such as "Zheng Hao Fang" and "Zheng Fang Trading Network" to complete ownership verification and generate a unique property verification code, achieving "one property, one code" for second-hand housing. [CRIC Real Estate Research: The top 20 real estate enterprises by new agency construction scale in Q1 saw new contracted construction area up 11% YoY] According to Zhitong Finance, CRIC Real Estate Research reported that in Q1 2026, the top 20 real estate enterprises by new agency construction scale achieved new contracted construction area of 50.437 million m², up 11% YoY. Compared with the 16% growth rate of the top 20 enterprises in 2025, this represented a slowdown of 5 percentage points; however, it was 5 percentage points higher than the growth rate in Q1 2025. Overall, competition in agency construction business expansion remained intense, with deep differentiation emerging among enterprises. [Shanghai Second-hand Home Monthly Transactions Returned to 30,000 Units for the First Time in 5 Years! Multiple New Home Projects Plan to Gradually Reduce Discounts] For the first time in 5 years, Shanghai's monthly second-hand home transactions returned to the 30,000-unit threshold, with the "Golden March" market rally delivering strongly. According to data from the Shanghai Real Estate Transaction Center's official website "Online Real Estate," in March, cumulative online signings of second-hand homes in Shanghai reached 31,215 units, hitting the highest level in nearly 5 years since March 2021. Li Gen, head of Shanghai Lianjia Research Institute, stated that the "mini spring rally" in Shanghai's second-hand housing market in March was robust, with transaction data confirming a strong return of market confidence. Citywide second-hand home trading volume not only grew 6% YoY from March last year but also surged 37% from January this year. The heated second-hand housing market was also gradually transmitting to the new home market. Shanghai Centaline Property data showed that in March, the transaction area of newly built commercial residential properties in Shanghai reached 563,000 m², surging 251.6% MoM, an unprecedented rebound. Notably, as the market recovered, signals of narrowing discounts and stabilizing prices in the new home market began to emerge. Among them, Poly Duhui Hexu had previously announced that transaction prices for townhouse units on sale would be raised by 0.5% across the board starting March 9; starting March 23, discounts were further tightened. In addition, Jinhai Yunshu, Huafa Haishang Duhui, Yijiang Zhendi and other projects also plan to gradually reduce discounts starting April. [China Index Academy: Top 100 Enterprises' Total Land Acquisition Amounted to 146.52 Billion Yuan in January–March] The latest "Top 100 National Real Estate Enterprises by Land Acquisition in January–March 2026" ranking released by China Index Academy showed that in January–March 2026, the total land acquisition amount of the top 100 enterprises was 146.52 billion yuan, down 49.4% YoY, with the decline narrowing by 3.0 percentage points MoM. After the Chinese New Year holiday, land supply and transactions recovered across various regions. Hot topic land parcels were offered in cities such as Shanghai and Hangzhou, and developers' land acquisition intensity rebounded MoM, with the decline in land acquisition value narrowing. In terms of characteristics, premium land parcels in core cities attracted intense competition, with state-owned enterprises remaining the dominant buyers. Voices from Various Parties Rajiv Batra, a strategist at JPMorgan in Singapore, said Hong Kong's property recovery is spreading to major mainland cities, while the lagged wealth effect from China's stock market rebound is helping revive housing demand. "After five years of correction, early signs of recovery have emerged in China's real estate sector in March, potentially approaching a turning point," Batra said. "We are relatively optimistic that China will outperform other emerging markets." Huatai Securities noted in a research report that March real estate data showed marginal improvement in both sales volume and prices, with home prices entering a phase of positive second-order derivative, especially as first-tier cities saw MoM price rebounds, signaling gradual restoration of market confidence. Huatai Securities believes that although the investment side is still hitting bottom, the increasing spontaneity of market recovery has enhanced the sustainability of price improvement and is also expected to bring opportunities for positioning in property stocks. Key recommendations: enterprises with lighter historical burdens or healthier cash flows, preparing for a new round of expansion; enterprises with low valuations and sufficient impairment provisions; enterprises with exposure in regions where the first-order derivative has turned positive; enterprises in existing property transactions and the back-end of the real estate industry chain. CITIC Construction Investment pointed out that in 2025, high-quality development has become the core theme for the property management and commercial management industry. Enterprises have refocused on their core property management service business. As cost reduction and efficiency gains materialize and impairment pressures are gradually released, overall corporate performance has shown positive changes. Enterprise performance has diverged, with some quality property and commercial management companies achieving sustained earnings growth. Against the backdrop of expanding domestic demand, the overall development of the real estate industry continues to be supported by policies. The firm remains optimistic about property management and operational services, recommending leading transaction intermediaries, construction agency service providers, and property enterprises with high service quality and operational efficiency. China Post Securities stated: Overall, the real estate industry is at a critical period of consolidating at lows, structural differentiation, and business model reshaping. The cumulative effect of policies is beginning to emerge, and the worst phase of the market may have passed, but industry recovery will still exhibit structural and gradual characteristics. April to May is a window for trend verification. If a stronger-than-usual off-season with price stabilization materializes, the expectation gap between the "policy bottom" and "earnings bottom" is expected to converge rapidly, improving the risk-reward of positioning for valuation recovery. Conversely, if price pressures intensify, allocation should lean more toward defensive plays and cash flow certainty, with secondary market activity remaining a leading signal. China Chengxin International analyzed in a research report: At the national level, policy guidance in housing and urban construction continues to be strengthened, using "quality housing" construction as the lever to systematically enhance residential quality across standards, design, construction, and operation & maintenance, promoting developers to focus on product quality upgrades. The concurrent urban renewal efforts, leveraging the promotion of mature experience and targeted central fiscal support, have established a standardized and efficient implementation framework, effectively resolving implementation challenges and forming a new development paradigm where housing quality improvement and urban renewal work in synergy. BOC International Securities stated that the property market has seen a "mini spring rally" over the past two months, but its sustainability remains to be observed, with subsequent trends depending on inventory destocking progress and whether prices stabilize. The continuation of the phased recovery also requires stronger policy support. Attention should be paid to the sequence of "late-April Politburo meeting — May ministerial detailed rules — local execution." We expect that the positive stance is likely to continue under the existing "stabilizing real estate" framework, with greater emphasis on implementation and policy coordination. In Q2, attention can be given to high-frequency fundamentals and the pace of local policy implementation, where policy-driven trading opportunities exist. Additionally, a "fundamental inflection point" may emerge around Q4, potentially reflected in a narrowing decline in second-hand housing prices. From an investment perspective, most property developers made relatively large impairment provisions in 2025, and may consolidate at lows in 2026, meaning sector profit margins and earnings could rebound in 2027, thereby driving a reassessment of 27E valuations by the market in Q4 this year. Beyond that, some commercial real estate companies with investment properties have already proactively positioned themselves in new business formats, new models, and new scenarios, making them better equipped to seize opportunities in the new consumption era.

The core logic of the South American steel market is that end-user demand drives everything. Consumption demand is the starting point, filled jointly by local production and imports; imports act as a regulating valve rather than a driving force.

African Rainbow Minerals is evaluating the restart of open-pit operations at its fully-owned Nkomati nickel mine in South Africa after securing a conditional off-take agreement with Sweden's Boliden AB. The mine, which was placed on care and maintenance in 2021 due to high costs and weak prices, became wholly owned by ARM after it acquired Nornickel's 50% stake in July 2025. Under the new agreement, which remains subject to board approval and responsible sourcing due diligence, Nkomati will supply nickel concentrate to Boliden's Harjavalta smelter in Finland, Europe's only large-scale nickel smelter. This potential restart business case is further bolstered by recent market trends, as nickel prices approach two-year highs driven by policy-related supply cuts in top producer Indonesia.

On April 14, Ye Jianhua, Director and Supervisor of the Industry Research Department of SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (SMM), Feng Chundi, Expert of the SMM Industry Research Institute, and Wu Tao, SMM Copper & Tin Overseas Marketing Manager, visited Chambishi Copper Smelter Limited (CCS) for exchange and survey, where they received warm hospitality from CCS leadership. During the visit, both parties engaged in pragmatic communication based on their respective core businesses. Leveraging its core strengths in non-ferrous metal price index R&D, industry chain big data monitoring, copper market analysis, in-depth industry research, and global non-ferrous resource connectivity, SMM shared insights on international copper market operating logic and price trend analysis, in the context of the current global copper smelting supply-demand pattern, raw material procurement landscape, and TC fluctuation trends. As a key copper smelting producer outside China, CCS provided a detailed introduction to its production and operation status, smelting process advantages, capacity release pace, raw material procurement, and product exports layout, elaborating on practical experience of ex-China copper smelters in production management, cost control, green production, and localized operations. Meanwhile, both parties exchanged views on common industry topics including development pain points of copper smelting outside China, raw material supply security, finished product circulation and trade, industry policy changes, and low-carbon smelting development trends. They also reached preliminary consensus on future directions such as industry chain information sharing, market data sharing, joint market analysis, and industry resource coordination, laying a solid foundation for deepening regular exchanges and promoting high-quality collaborative development of the copper smelting industry chain. Introduction to Chambishi Copper Smelter Limited (CCS) Chambishi Copper Smelter Limited (CCS) is the first large-scale modern pyrometallurgy copper smelting enterprise invested, fully independently designed and constructed by China outside China. Located in the Zambia-China Economic and Trade Cooperation Zone, the company has 170 Chinese staff and 1,600 Zambian employees. CCS has consistently focused on its vision of "building an evergreen, world-class smelter," upholding the corporate spirit of "self-transcendence, continuous breakthroughs, and pursuit of excellence," benchmarking against first-class standards with meticulous craftsmanship, and continuously strengthening and optimizing enterprise management, with its comprehensive competitiveness steadily improving. As of the end of 2024, the company had produced over 3.3 million mt of copper products and 8.7 million mt of sulphuric acid, with cumulative sales revenue of approximately $21 billion, effectively driving local economic development in Zambia and becoming a shining pearl along the Belt and Road! Enterprise History and Development Achievements (Pursuing Excellence, Benchmarking Against the Best and Forging Ahead) To extend the industry chain and retain more added value locally, in 2006, China Nonferrous Metal Mining (Group) Co., Ltd. partnered with Yunnan Copper to introduce the advanced ISA copper smelting process to Zambia, with shareholding ratios of 60% and 40%, respectively. From the design stage, the company drew on successful experience in China and combined it with the characteristics of Zambian raw materials to re-optimize and innovate key processes and technologies of the ISASMELT process, strengthening system integration. This resulted in multiple innovative achievements, including "Integration Innovation and Application of ISASMELT Furnace" and "Comprehensive Automated Control System," which were awarded the First Prize for Scientific and Technological Progress by CNIA in 2010. The ISASMELT furnace campaign life broke world records multiple times, with the second campaign reaching 218 weeks and the third campaign reaching 244 weeks, becoming an international benchmark. In 2021 and 2022, the company's copper production exceeded the designed capacity of 250,000 mt for two consecutive years, making history. In 2024, production further surpassed 260,000 mt, setting a new historical record. In September 2013, the company was honored with the title of Advanced Collective of Central State-Owned Enterprises. In July 2021, it was successfully selected as a benchmark enterprise under the management of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council. Process Flow (Dedicated and Professional, Pursuing Excellence for Development) The company adopted the internationally advanced and mature process of "oxygen-enriched top-blown submerged bath smelting, electric furnace settling and separation, PS converter blowing, and anode furnace pyrometallurgy refining" to produce copper anode, and the "double-conversion double-absorption" process to produce sulphuric acid. Adhering to the concept of sustainable development, the company built a slag flotation recovery system with a daily processing capacity of 1,500 mt of slag and a bismuth recovery system with a daily processing capacity of 6 mt of flue dust, continuing to recover metals such as copper, cobalt, and bismuth from smelting slag and flue dust. Social Responsibility (Cooperation and Sharing, Giving Back to Society with Strong Responsibility) The company actively practiced its core values of "dedication, cooperation, and sharing," consistently focusing on its core business of copper pyrometallurgy smelting, cooperating extensively with upstream and downstream clients, and sharing development achievements with employees and local communities. Since its establishment, the company had cumulatively paid over $300 million in various taxes and fees in Zambia, created over 5,000 job opportunities, and cooperated with more than 300 local suppliers, contributing to Zambia's green, harmonious, and shared development. The company actively fulfilled its social responsibilities by increasing investment in social welfare programs for local communities in Zambia, covering infrastructure, education, healthcare, and sanitation. It sponsored the renovation of clinics in Kalulushi, the Bushifire Orphanage, and donated to build classrooms at Buyantashi School, Luato Market, Kankuko Bridge, Chibuluma Community Tennis Court, Chimfunshi Chimpanzee Rescue Center, and Modern Stars Football Club, among others. The cumulative investment exceeded $4 million, earning high praise from the local government and warm welcome from the public, and establishing a positive corporate image. The company actively promoted employee localization and continuously achieved skills transfer. The company invested over 5 million Kwacha, and externally carried out technical and non-technical training programs in electric welding, electrical power, pneumatics, technical control, management supervision, and equipment maintenance through the China-Zambia Vocational and Technical College, TEVETA Fund, and other channels. Internally, through mentorship programs, the company conducted business training in masonry, fitting, and other skills. The localization rate of company employees reached over 92%, local employees' skills were significantly improved, and technical expertise was exported to the DRC. Vision and Outlook (Staying True to Our Mission, Building a Shared Future Together) Innovation-driven development knows no bounds. Over the past decade, the company has upheld a sense of survival crisis and market competition awareness, adhered to innovation-driven development, and achieved high-quality growth. In 2021, the company's IT infrastructure was completed and successfully put into use, committed to building an automated, digitalized, and intelligent factory. In August 2023, the company's anode furnace pyrometallurgy refining system technical renovation project was completed and put into operation. In November 2024, the company's three-year action plan for technology-empowered safety and environmental protection was officially established, focusing on technology empowerment and fostering new quality productive forces, propelling the company's high-quality development to a new level. Through collaborative development, benchmarking against first-class standards, technological innovation, and increased production and efficiency, the company continues to advance toward its enterprise vision of "becoming an evergreen, world-class smelter." is scheduled to be held on October 13-14, 2026 in Lusaka, Zambia. Welcome to participate! Contact Person : Wu Tao: 18270916376 jennywu@smm.cn

Recent Performance of Key Iron Ore Price Spreads Since 2024, large-scale iron ore projects in and outside China have been continuously commissioned, leading to a notable increase in iron ore supply. However, the sharp decline in downstream steel demand caused the iron ore supply-demand gap to widen continuously. The iron ore supply-demand pattern shifted from tight to loose, which also led to a year-on-year decline in average iron ore prices. Nevertheless, influenced by multiple factors such as iron ore supply and demand, port inventory, and steel mill profits, the frequency of price spread fluctuations among iron ore varieties increased. SMM reviewed the recent trends of key price spreads, as detailed below: ◼ Internal Differentiation Among Medium-Grade Resources, with Price Spreads Widening Significantly Affected by long-term contract negotiations, the trade liquidity of mainstream medium-grade ore deteriorated significantly. The lack of trade liquidity in certain varieties was directly transmitted to variety price spreads, with price spread fluctuations of mainstream medium-grade ore such as MNPJ intensifying notably. Among them, the price spread between PB fines and Jimblebar fines was the most sensitive: In early September 2025, the price spread between the two was 20 yuan/mt. As news of the ban on Jimblebar fines port cargo pick-up was released, its spot price came under pressure and dropped sharply, with the price spread quickly widening to around 50 yuan/mt. In addition, affected by the reduction in tradable varieties of mainstream Australian medium-grade ore, the variety price spreads between PB fines and Newman fines, as well as MAC fines, also showed a notable narrowing trend. Source: SMM ◼ High-Grade Premium Highlighted, Price Difference Between High and Medium-Grade Ore Widening Rapidly From Q4 2025 to date, price spread fluctuations among high, medium, and low-grade ore were equally intense. After entering 2026, structural contradictions in the iron ore market became further pronounced. Affected by declining raw ore quality from northern Brazilian mining areas, IOCJ fines supply experienced a trend of contraction. Coupled with the cost-effectiveness recovery brought by earlier price weakness and the release of concentrated restocking demand from steel mills ahead of Chinese New Year, IOCJ fines prices received strong support. Meanwhile, mainstream medium-grade ore remained tight in available resources due to trade flow disruptions. Against the backdrop of a shift between high and low-grade resources, the price difference between high and medium-grade ore widened again. Reviewing the period from November 2025 to March 2026, north China entered the heating season, and environmental protection-driven production restrictions became more frequent. As Chinese New Year and the Two Sessions approached, production restrictions were further tightened, with blast furnaces at steel mills in multiple areas of Hebei shut down, leading to a notable decline in hot metal production. Notably, during this period, steel mill profits remained generally stable, and some enterprises, in pursuit of higher output, tended to increase the blast furnace blending ratio of high and medium-grade ore while correspondingly reducing procurement of low-grade ore. Driven by this structural demand shift, the price difference between medium and low-grade ore widened. Source: SMM ◼ Lump-Fines Price Spread Experienced a "V"-Shaped Trend, Declining First Then Rising Since sintering processes generate relatively high pollution emissions, environmental protection-driven production restrictions typically prioritized restricting sintering and shaft furnace production. In north China and north-east China, during heating seasons or major events, if production restriction periods are prolonged, steel mills often increase the proportion of lump ore in their mix to alleviate tight supply of sinter and pellet, thereby driving lump ore prices to rise rapidly. However, over the past three years, the impact of seasonal factors on lump ore demand has gradually weakened, mainly for three reasons: first, steel mills have successively completed ultra-low emission retrofits for flue gas, reducing overall pollution intensity; second, sintering machines in Hebei and other regions have surplus capacity, and environmental protection-driven production restrictions have mostly been limited to within one week, significantly reducing the actual impact on production; third, steel mill profits have been under pressure, reducing the pursuit of hot metal production, and the proportion of high-grade ore usage has adjusted downward accordingly. Under the combined influence of the above factors, since H2 2024, lump ore premiums have continued to decline, hitting a new low by the end of 2025. Meanwhile, the price spread between PB lump and PB fines also narrowed significantly, contracting from 195 yuan/mt to 63 yuan/mt, a decline of over 50%. Against this backdrop, the cost-effectiveness of lump ore gradually became more prominent. Combined with the extended environmental protection-driven production restriction period in northern China in November 2025, the proportion of lump ore usage began to increase. However, as lump ore premiums had remained low for an extended period, product returns were poor, and major mines correspondingly reduced lump ore production. Driven by both supply contraction and demand growth, lump ore premiums rebounded, and the lump-fines price spread widened accordingly. As of mid-March 2026, lump ore premiums have risen to a periodic high, up nearly 280% from early January. The lump-fines price spread has also gradually widened to above 100 yuan/mt. Source: SMM Key Driving Logic of Product Price Spreads Mix Adjustment Led by Steel Mill Profits (Core Driver) ◼ 1 Profit Expansion Phase: High Hot Metal Production Drives Demand for High-Grade Ore When steel mill profits widened and per-mt crude steel returns were higher, steel mills pursued pig iron production and tended to raise the grade of furnace feed. When selecting iron ore, they preferred to purchase high-grade or medium-grade ore. As shown, in H1 2025, profits of common billet at China's steel mills rebounded notably. Common billet profits reached a peak of nearly 350 yuan/mt. At this point, to boost production, steel mills moderately increased the proportion of high-grade IOCJ fines, as well as high-grade lump and pellet usage. Demand growth over a certain period stimulated high-grade ore price increases, and it was clearly evident that the price spread between high-grade and medium-grade ore began to widen. Source: SMM ◼ 2 Profit Contraction Phase: Cost Reduction and Efficiency Improvement Boost Low-Grade Ore Procurement After steel mill profits contracted, to reduce costs and improve efficiency, steel mills significantly increased their focus on cost-effectiveness across iron ore products, tending to prioritize products with higher cost-effectiveness. Within the mid-grade ore range, steel mills preferred varieties with a larger price spread relative to PB fines. Meanwhile, weakening profits meant that higher pig iron or crude steel production led to greater loss pressure. Therefore, steel mills controlled pig iron production rationally from the perspective of economic efficiency. However, given the high comprehensive costs of shutting down or reducing blast furnace loads, steel mills tended to maintain normal blast furnace operations while lowering furnace charge grade and increasing the use of low-grade ore. Under these circumstances, assuming other conditions remained unchanged, the price spread between mid- and low-grade ore tended to narrow. Taking the market around October 2025 as an example, billet profits continued to decline, and the mid-to-low-grade ore price spread narrowed accordingly. Data source: SMM Dual Transmission Paths of Seasonal Effects ◼ Seasonal factors influenced iron ore variety demand through dual paths of "end-use demand fluctuations" and "heating season environmental protection-driven production restrictions" ◼ 1. Seasonal fluctuations in end-use demand: impact on steel mill production and raw material procurement pace The shift between off-season and peak season in end-use demand created cyclical impacts on iron ore variety demand. Off-seasons were mainly concentrated in summer (June–August) and winter (November–February): high temperatures and heavy rainfall in summer suppressed construction, while hydropower replacing thermal power in south China lowered electric furnace production costs and squeezed blast furnace hot metal production; in winter, construction sites in north China shut down and steel demand contracted. During off-seasons, steel mills increased blast furnace maintenance and lowered furnace charge grade to control production, with demand for high-grade iron ore weakening accordingly. During peak seasons (spring March–May, autumn September–October), downstream construction activity was released intensively, steel mills actively ramped up production, and furnace charge grade rose in tandem, strengthening demand for high-grade fines, lump ore, and pellet, supporting their premium performance. In summary, seasonal fluctuations in end-use demand drove cyclical changes in iron ore variety demand by influencing steel mill production and furnace charge grade selection. Transmission logic: end-use demand fluctuations → steel mill production adjustments → changes in total iron ore procurement volume → corresponding shifts in variety demand structure Data source: SMM Data source: SMM ◼ 2. Environmental protection-driven production restrictions during the northern heating season: direct disruption to furnace charge structure and variety premiums Heating season environmental protection-driven production restrictions primarily targeted steel mills in north China, spanning November to April of the following year . During this period, if air quality failed to meet standards, local environmental protection authorities would initiate production restriction measures, prioritizing restrictions on sintering machines and shaft furnaces, leading to tighter supply of sinter and pellet. To maintain blast furnace operations, steel mills were forced to increase the proportion of lump ore in their charge mix, driving a seasonal strengthening of lump ore demand, which in turn supported lump ore premiums and a rise in the lump-fines price spread. Transmission logic: environmental protection policy → sinter machine production restrictions → forced adjustment of furnace charge structure → stronger demand for lump ore and pellet ore → premium fluctuations Data source: SMM Coke prices affected the iron ore product mix through dual channels of fuel costs and profit margins ◼ 1 High coke prices suppressed lump ore demand As raw material directly charged into furnaces, lump ore consumed more coke than sinter and pellet ore, so steel mills typically controlled the lump ore charging ratio at around 10%. During periods when coke prices fluctuated at highs, steel mills tended to reduce lump ore proportions to control fuel costs. Before H1 2024, coke prices fluctuated at highs, and the lump ore usage ratio continued to decline, falling to a low of 9.8%. However, as coke prices underwent nearly a year of decline and entered a low range, combined with relatively low lump ore premiums and the push from environmental protection-driven production restriction policies, the lump ore charging ratio gradually rebounded, once exceeding 11%. Data source: SMM ◼ 2 Demand for high-silicon fines suppressed The higher the silicon content in iron ore, the greater the blast furnace slag volume and the higher the coke ratio. Therefore, low-silicon smelting is a key direction for blast furnace process optimization and a critical lever for cost reduction and efficiency improvement. Among current iron ore products on the market, mainstream mid-grade ore Si content mostly ranges from 4-6%. Brazilian high-silicon BRBF has relatively high Si content at 10-12%. Therefore, Australian ore is mostly used as the primary material, while Brazilian ore and non-mainstream ore serve as auxiliary materials. When coke prices were at highs, the cost disadvantage of high-silicon resources became prominent, and steel mills tended to reduce Brazilian high-silicon BRBF, Indian fines, and South African fines, shifting to mid-to-high-grade fines with lower silicon content (such as PB fines and IOCJ fines). Going forward, the iron ore oversupply pattern will become more prominent, while under overcapacity pressure in China's steel sector, steel mill profits will remain poor. Therefore, cost reduction and efficiency improvement will be a long-term direction, driving stronger demand for low-silicon, low-aluminum products. Consequently, mainstream mid-grade ore will remain the product with the best market circulation. Data source: SMM ◼ 3 Rising share of mid-to-low-grade fines under low profits High coke and ore prices squeezed steel mill profits, and steel mills no longer pursued hot metal production maximization, instead increasing mid-to-low-grade fines usage and lowering charging grade to control costs. Based on historical data, such situations occurred in Q3 2024 and Q2 2025. Auxiliary Variables: Inventory, Substitution, and Preferences ◼ 1 Product substitution effect: mid-grade inter-substitution and "high-low blending" substitution In the product mix of steel mill sinter, "high-low blending" and "mid-grade blending" are commonly mentioned concepts, with the core principle being to select the optimal products based on the cost-effectiveness of different iron ore varieties. Under normal circumstances, steel mills use MNPJ (i.e., mainstream medium-grade ore types such as Mac fines, Newman fines, PB fines, and Jimblebar fines) as primary materials, or adopt a high-low grade combination of " IOCJ fines + super special fines " as primary materials, and adjust auxiliary material ratios based on the acidity and alkalinity of the primary materials. Using mainstream medium-grade ore types as primary materials is the more common practice. When mainstream medium-grade ore types are periodically less cost-effective — for example, when the combined cost of "IOCJ fines + super special fines" is lower than that of medium-grade PB fines — some steel mills periodically switch to high-low grade combinations as primary materials to reduce costs. As shown in the chart, during March to April of 2024 and 2025, the cost-effectiveness advantage of high-low grade combinations was significantly superior to that of medium-grade ore, and therefore some steel mills in regions such as Hebei and Shanxi predominantly chose high-low grade combinations as primary materials during these periods. Data source: SMM ◼ 2. Inventory Structure Drives Price Spreads among Varieties: Inventory Changes and Price Transmission Logic Inventory is the most intuitive reflection of short-term supply-demand imbalances in the iron ore market. When supply is loose or demand weakens, port inventory continues to rise, and inventory levels generally exhibit a negative correlation with prices. Once inventory accumulates to a certain level, it tends to exert significant downward pressure on prices. Over the past two years, the inventory and price trends of Ukrainian concentrate (hereinafter "Ukrainian concentrate") have well validated this pattern. In November 2023, Ukrainian concentrate shipments gradually resumed, but as steel mills still had concerns about the stability of its supply, actual usage did not increase significantly, leading to continued port inventory accumulation. By May 2024, SMM ten-port inventory data by variety showed that Ukrainian concentrate inventory exceeded 3 million mt , exerting significant downward pressure on prices, with Ukrainian concentrate prices falling from 1,200 yuan/mt at the beginning of the year to 900 yuan/mt. Meanwhile, the price spread between Ukrainian concentrate and PB fines also narrowed from 160 yuan/mt to 80 yuan/mt, and its cost-effectiveness advantage gradually emerged, driving a notable increase in steel mill demand. Entering early 2026, affected by a decline in Ukrainian concentrate supply, port inventory retreated from highs to around 1.1 million mt, and tightening supply supported a notable rebound in Ukrainian concentrate prices, with the price spread versus PB fines also widening from 80 yuan/mt to around 100 yuan/mt . Data source: SMM Variety Cost-Effectiveness Assessment Model and Selection Strategy ◼ 1. Horizontal Comparison: Micro-Indicator Assessment among Same-Grade Varieties. In recent years, global mainstream iron ore supply entered a resource transition period, with notable structural adjustment characteristics. On one hand, some aging mines faced resource depletion , with declining mining grades; on the other hand, new mines were still in the capacity ramp-up stage , and the transition between old and new resources still required time. As a result, quality indicators of multiple mainstream varieties were broadly downgraded. Among them, medium-grade ore indicators represented by PB fines and Newman fines weakened; due to declining raw ore quality in Brazil's northern system, not only did IOCJ fines production contract, but the proportion of high-silicon special IOCJ fines output also rose, with silicon content increase being particularly notable beyond the decline in iron grade. Against this backdrop, steel mills tended to assess the most cost-effective varieties by calculating comprehensive price spreads. From the perspective of minor indicator adjustment values, the smaller the adjusted price spread relative to the MMI 61% index, the better the variety met steel mill demand. Based on Q1 averages, Jimblebar fines offered the best cost-effectiveness, followed by PB fines, Mac fines, Newman fines, and BRBR. However, since Jimblebar fines could not be traded or delivered, PB fines remained the optimal choice among medium-grade ores. Data source: SMM ◼ 2. Vertical Comparison: Historical Percentile Timing of High, Medium, and Low-Grade Price Spreads Beyond the horizontal comparison of price spreads among varieties of similar grades, vertically examining price spread changes among high, medium, and low-grade ores was equally important. By analyzing historical percentiles of the price difference between high and medium-grade ore and the price difference between medium and low-grade ore, the relative valuation of each grade could be assessed to guide variety switching and timing. Price difference between high and medium-grade ore: when at historical highs, the high-grade premium was excessive, and switching to medium-grade was advisable under profit pressure; when at historical lows, high-grade cost-effectiveness stood out, and moderate allocation increases were appropriate. Beyond premiums, using IOCJ fines and PB fines as benchmarks and calculating based on their indicator costs, the neutral value of the price spread between the two was 100 yuan/mt. When the spread exceeded 100 yuan/mt, PB fines offered better cost-effectiveness; when below 100 yuan/mt, IOCJ fines were more cost-effective. Price difference between medium and low-grade ore: when at historical highs, low-grade advantages were evident, suitable for cost reduction during thin-margin periods; when at historical lows, medium-grade cost-effectiveness improved, allowing flexible adjustments. Using PB fines and SSF as benchmarks and calculating based on their indicator costs, the price spread between the two ranged from 100-120 yuan/mt, with a midpoint of 110 as the neutral value. When the spread exceeded 110 yuan/mt, super special fines offered better cost-effectiveness; when below 110 yuan/mt, PB fines were more cost-effective. Combining the historical percentiles of both, allocation windows for each grade could be captured based on profit cycles to achieve cost optimization. Data source: SMM ◼ 3 Morphology Comparison: Arbitrage Logic of Fines-Lump Price Spread and Lump Ore Premium. Taking the price spread between PB lump and PB fines as an example, influenced by steel mill profits and coke prices, the fines-lump price spread exhibited notable fluctuations. Historical data showed the price spread between PB lump and PB fines ranged approximately 80–500 yuan/mt. In H1 2021, driven by high steel mill profits and supply-demand mismatch, the fines-lump price spread once approached the historical high of nearly 500 yuan/mt. In recent years, as steel mill profits narrowed, the price spread contracted significantly. In 2025, the fines-lump price spread operated within a range of 70–220 yuan/mt, with an annual average of approximately 128 yuan/mt. In early 2026, the lump ore premium fell to $0.04/dmt, and the price spread narrowed to 65 yuan/mt. Given that China's overcapacity landscape has not fundamentally changed, steel mill profits are expected to remain basically flat with 2025, and the fines-lump price spread is likely to maintain the current range. Based on this assessment: When the lump-fines price spread exceeds 120 yuan/mt, PB fines offer better value; When the lump-fines price spread falls below 120 yuan/mt, PB lump offers better value. Steel mills can choose accordingly based on their own conditions. Data source: SMM ◼ 4 Substitution Comparison: Cost-Effectiveness Competition between Lump Ore and Pellet Generally, when steel mill profits are favourable, steel mills consider increasing the usage ratio of lump ore and pellet. Typically, the combined usage share of lump ore and pellet ranges between 20%–30%. In actual ore blending decisions, steel mills' price spread analysis between lump ore and pellet falls into two categories: inland steel mills usually compare the price spread between domestic pellet and lump ore such as PB lump and Newman lump; while coastal port steel mills focus more on the price spread between imported pellet and corresponding lump ore. In recent years, with the increase in China's pellet capacity and the decline in imported pellet volumes, the weighting of price spread comparison between same-grade lump ore and domestic pellet has further increased. Historical data showed the price spread between 62% grade pellet in Qingdao and PB lump ore at Qingdao port ranged approximately 40–260 yuan/mt, with an annual average price spread of approximately 108 yuan/mt in 2025. Considering steel mills' actual cost accounting, the price spread equilibrium point between pellet and lump ore is generally set at 120 yuan/mt. When the pellet-lump price spread exceeds 120 yuan/mt, lump ore offers better value; When the pellet-lump price spread falls below 120 yuan/mt, pellet offers better value. Steel mills can choose accordingly based on their own raw material conditions, logistics structure, and production requirements. Data source: SMM Carbon Neutrality as a Two-Way Driver: Steel Industry Restructuring Shifts Iron Ore Demand ◼ The rapid advancement of industrialisation has significantly intensified the impact on the global climate, making the urgency of achieving carbon neutrality increasingly pressing. Particularly over the past five years, major economies represented by China and the EU have not only defined their respective emission reduction targets but also successively introduced legally binding regulations, marking a shift in global climate governance from consensus to action. Going forward, China's Ecological Environment Code and the EU's European Climate Law and "Fit for 55" package will become the two major institutional benchmarks for global climate governance. China's carbon market and the EU's CBAM, from the two dimensions of domestic carbon pricing and cross-border carbon adjustment respectively, form core policy tools for effectively controlling carbon emissions. Source: SMM ◼ Driven by both domestic and international legislation, the steel industry will undergo an evolution in emission reduction pathways: process transformation from long-process to short-process steelmaking; low-carbon transition driving non-blast furnace ironmaking development and carbon constraints driving furnace charge structure upgrades. These pathways will collectively reshape the demand structure of iron ore, manifested as strengthened preference for high-grade, low-impurity iron ore concentrates and premium mainstream ore types, while demand for traditional sintering fines tends to narrow. ◼ 1. Process restructuring: the shift from long-process to short-process steelmaking will drive increased demand for mainstream varieties and high-grade ore Under the global backdrop of "carbon neutrality" goals, the steel industry is regarded as one of the key areas for industrial emission reduction. The traditional long process (blast furnace-converter process), due to its reliance on coke and iron ore, is considered a major source of high carbon emissions and has become a key target for regulation and transformation. Many countries have begun shifting toward the more environmentally friendly short process (steel scrap-electric furnace process), but this transition has been relatively slow in China. On one hand, electric furnace steelmaking is largely limited to rebar production; on the other hand, steel scrap supply is constrained. Additionally, considering factors such as melting costs and losses in steel scrap smelting, pig iron costs should be higher than steel scrap prices by 100-150 yuan/mt for steel scrap to be more cost-effective; if the price spread is below this level, pig iron offers better value. In 2025, the price spread between hot metal costs and steel scrap fluctuated in a range of -100-210. Pig iron costs were mostly more favorable than steel scrap, so the share of blast furnace steelmaking in China stayed high. Source: SMM In China, apart from profitability, short-process electric furnaces are also constrained by high electricity prices, steel scrap price fluctuations, and cost disadvantages , resulting in slow capacity growth. Although the national carbon market is already operational, current carbon prices have not been effectively incorporated into trading, which is not enough to drive a large-scale shift from long-process to electric furnaces, and enterprises mostly adopt gradual adjustments . Source: SMM Based on current policy and market conditions, before China's steel industry is formally included in the national carbon market trading and during the early stage of the EU's CBAM policy implementation, the blast furnace-converter long process will remain the dominant mode of global steel production over the next five years. However, under the dual pressures of domestic steel capacity capping and rising carbon prices in the future, China's electric furnace short process is entering a historic development opportunity, with its share of steelmaking set to gradually increase. By 2030, the share of electric furnace steelmaking is expected to reach around 35%. In the long term, this trend will gradually suppress iron ore demand, causing it to weaken. Against the backdrop of oversupply, competition among iron ore varieties will intensify, and therefore high cost-effective varieties with low silicon and aluminum content will become the optimal choice for steel mills. Undoubtedly, mainstream medium and high-grade ore such as PB fines, Mac fines, Newman fines, IOCJ fines, BRBF, and Simandou fines all belong to relatively high-quality varieties. ◼ 2 Low-carbon transition driving non-blast furnace ironmaking development, demand for high-grade iron ore concentrates with Fe content above 65% expected to continue rising Currently, global DRI production accounts for only 10% of total global production. As low-carbon technologies such as hydrogen-based DRI accelerate in application, DRI production share is expected to rise to 13% by 2030. In comparison, China's non-blast furnace ironmaking share is even smaller, with mass production not yet achieved and only leading steel enterprises in the trial production stage. Under current carbon neutrality requirements, China's non-blast furnace ironmaking is facing significant development opportunities. According to incomplete statistics, announced non-blast furnace ironmaking capacity totaled approximately 18 million mt, of which only 2 million mt were under construction, with the remaining 16 million mt of projects still in early stages, carrying relatively high risk coefficients. Whether these projects materialize depends on multiple factors including funding, market conditions, decarbonization policies, and government support, resulting in significant uncertainty regarding future commissioning time. Future projects will primarily be gas-based; current major DRI equipment uses coke oven gas (COG), but in the medium and long-term will gradually shift to green hydrogen. Data source: World Steel Association Data source: SMM Currently, the core requirements for DRI raw materials are "high grade, low impurities," with Fe grade ≥66% and SiO2+Al2O3 ≤3.5%. China's concentrates generally have relatively high silicon content, with some exceeding 10%. Therefore, only a few low-silicon concentrates can be used to produce direct reduced pellet feed. Ex-China high-grade concentrates offer a wider range of options. Data source: SMM As DRI production grows, demand for high-quality iron units is also increasing, leading to a structural rise in the share of high-grade iron ore and pure iron raw materials. As shown in the chart, varieties within the red box all have Fe content above 66%, with Si+Al content around 3.5%; these include some high-grade iron ore concentrates from China, Brazilian pellet feed concentrates, Peruvian concentrates, and emerging Simandou fines, all of which can serve as DRI raw materials. Data source: SMM ◼ 3. Carbon constraints drive furnace charge structure upgrades, with pellet replacing sinter becoming key to carbon reduction, and pellet-making concentrates with grades above 62% set to see significant growth. As China's steel industry pursues structural adjustment, optimization, and green, low-carbon, high-quality development, pellet ore as a premium raw material for blast furnaces has been increasingly favoured by the industry, driving the rapid development of the pellet sector. The energy consumption of the pellet production process is approximately 50% of that of the sinter production process. According to CISA's 2025 statistics, the average energy consumption of the sintering process among its member units was 48.5 kg/mt, while the average energy consumption of the pellet process was 25.23 kg/mt, indicating lower energy consumption in pellet production. Due to the different heat supply methods in pellet roasting compared to sintering, SO2, NOX, and CO2 emissions after combustion are much lower than those from the sintering process. In addition, pellet ore generates much less dust than sinter, making the pellet process more environmentally friendly. The emission comparison between the sintering process and the pellet process is shown in the chart below: Data source: SMM ◼ A high proportion of pellet ore in furnace charge is the direction and demand of current blast furnace charge structure development Compared with other countries in the world, China's blast furnace charge structure is dominated by sinter with a low pellet ratio , while blast furnaces in North America and Europe primarily use high proportions of pellets, with some blast furnaces reaching 100%. For example: SSAB's blast furnace in Sweden had a pellet ratio of 97.2%, Dofasco in Canada achieved 100% all-pellet smelting, and USS No. 14 blast furnace had a pellet ratio of 80%, etc. According to CISA's 2025 statistics, the average fuel ratio per unit of ironmaking at China's key steel enterprises was 523-525 kg/mt, approximately 70 kg higher than the average fuel ratio of European and American blast furnaces. The reason is that China's blast furnace charge is dominated by sinter, with sinter iron grade at around 54-57%, while pellet ore iron grade is above 62%. High sinter usage leads to high slag volume and high energy consumption in blast furnaces. Therefore, against the backdrop of carbon reduction, increasing the proportion of pellet ore usage is imperative. Data source: SMM ◼ Currently, there are three main types of pellet production equipment in China: shaft furnaces, chain grate-rotary kilns, and travelling grates . In recent years, pellet equipment with a single-unit capacity below 1.2 million mt/year (excluding ferroalloy and foundry pig iron pellets) has been classified as a restricted category; therefore, capacity replacement of pellet equipment continues, with new pellet projects predominantly using travelling grates, with single production line capacity mostly at 5 million mt. As a result, current pellet production is mainly based on rotary kilns and travelling grates. These two types of equipment have less stringent raw material requirements compared to shaft furnaces, allowing the blending of multiple ore types such as magnetite, hematite, and limonite. However, it must be concentrate, with a particle size requirement generally of -200 mesh, 70% or above. Commonly used varieties include: domestic concentrate, Ukrainian concentrate, Brazilian concentrate, Middle Eastern concentrate, Chilean concentrate, Australian concentrate, Sierra Leonean concentrate, etc. As the proportion of pellet usage increases in the future, demand for concentrate with grades of 62% and above will continue to expand. ◼ Overall, before 2030, as carbon neutrality policies and Europe's CBAM are still in the early stages of implementation, carbon emission costs have not yet become significantly prominent. Meanwhile, China's steel production is trending downward, while iron ore supply is accelerating, steel mill profits are under pressure, and cost reduction and efficiency improvement remain the industry's mainstream strategy. Therefore, procurement will continue to focus on low- and medium-grade iron ore, demand for non-mainstream ore varieties will remain robust, the price spread among high-, medium-, and low-grade ore will be difficult to widen, and premiums for lump ore and pellets will also stay at current low levels. ◼ After 2030, market requirements for green steel will gradually increase, the share of electric furnace steelmaking and non-blast furnace steelmaking will rise, and overall iron ore demand will decline notably. Although blast furnace capacity will decrease, operating rates may improve, driving down sinter demand while pellet demand increases significantly. This shift will lead to a sharp decline in fines demand and an expansion of market share for mainstream medium-grade ore; meanwhile, demand for high-quality concentrate will rise, pushing the price difference between high and medium-grade ore wider, and pellet premiums will also continue to climb. Additionally, although lump ore demand has some growth potential, the increase will be limited under carbon emission constraints, and lump ore premium elasticity will diminish accordingly.

【SMM Steel】The UK TRA released an SEF for interim findings on an AD investigation into S.Korean hot rolled steel plates. The TRA prefers imposing duties only on plates >600mm but 600mm scope, due to an Economic Interest Test. Full scope duties would hurt downstream UK industries (renewables, shipbuilding) that depend on imports. Narrow plates are produced domestically. Proposed duties: 7.04-22.27% for narrow plates vs 5.98-24.28% for full scope. Public comments due by May 21, 2026. The injury period: Apr 1, 2021 - Mar 31, 2025; investigation period: Apr 1, 2024 - Mar 31, 2025.

Vietnam has approved updated planning for the Nui Phao tungsten mine in Thai Nguyen province, under the national mineral plan for 2021–2030 with a vision to 2050. The mine operates with approximately 83.22 million tonnes of licensed reserves, including about 28.03 million tonnes of underground reserves.

[SMM Tin Morning Brief: The Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Consolidated at Highs During the Night Session, Spot Market Remained Sluggish]