SMM Weekly Stainless Steel Futures Review — week of May 25–29, 2026. Indonesian nickel ore and ferroalloy policy expectations and a low-inventory floor steady the benchmark contract near RMB 14,800/mt in the week of May 25 – May 29.

On May 28, NIO CEO Li Bin mentioned during the "NIO ES9 Media Face-to-Face" session that since the beginning of this year, raw material prices including nickel, cobalt, and lithium carbonate had risen, increasing the cost per vehicle by over 10,000 yuan. Li Bin noted that commodities such as bulk materials and memory chips affected not only the automotive industry but also faster-growing and more financially robust industries, leaving automakers with little bargaining power. Memory chip prices had not come down since rising earlier this year, and the cost increases driven by raw materials were unlikely to decline in the short term either, meaning enterprises had to absorb these costs on their own.

On Thursday, May 21, Moody's Ratings stated that Indonesia's plan to centralize commodity exports has negatively impacted the creditworthiness of mining companies and increases the risk of market distortions. Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto announced on Wednesday that the government will centralize the export of key commodities as part of increasing national revenue and strengthening control over the country's abundant natural resources. Moody's noted that while this move may help support foreign exchange inflows and the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate, it could also affect investor confidence in Indonesia's overall policy environment.

Fri, May 22, 2026 at 9:56 PM GMT+8 JPMorgan has reduced its gold price forecasts for 2026, pointing to softer short-term demand conditions, although the bank continues to hold a bullish longer-term outlook and still expects gold to climb toward $6,000 per troy ounce by the end of the year. The bank lowered its 2026 average gold price forecast to $5,243 per ounce from a previous estimate of $5,708, citing weaker investor participation and subdued market positioning in the near term. According to JPMorgan, gold is currently trading within a narrow technical range between its 200-day moving average near $4,340 per ounce and its 50-day moving average around $4,730 per ounce, while futures market activity and ETF inflows remain relatively muted. “Gold is on the back burner for most investors at the moment,” analysts led by Gregory Shearer wrote, adding that concerns over the possibility of Federal Reserve interest rate increases in response to energy-driven inflation are limiting investor confidence in the short term. Despite the downgrade to its forecasts, JPMorgan stressed that it views the recent weakness as a temporary pause rather than a fundamental change in trend. The bank said its constructive long-term thesis — based on fiscal risks, currency debasement concerns, geopolitical fragmentation and uncertainty surrounding U.S. policymaking — remains intact, but is “on hold until more clarity arrives around a resolution of the Iran conflict.” One of the key developments JPMorgan is monitoring is a possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which the bank’s oil analysts expect could occur in June. Analysts believe such a development would ease inflation-related risks and begin reversing recent gains in the U.S. dollar and real bond yields, potentially triggering a recovery in gold prices toward technical resistance levels between $4,900 and $5,100 per ounce. The bank also expects investors who previously reduced gold exposure to gradually return to the market, supporting a rebound in demand during the second half of the year. JPMorgan reduced its forecast for central bank gold purchases in 2026 to 640 tonnes from 800 tonnes previously, after officially reported net buying dropped to just 16 tonnes during the first quarter amid increased selling activity. However, including unreported purchases, total central bank buying still reached 244 tonnes during the quarter, based on estimates from the World Gold Council and Metals Focus. The bank additionally cut its forecast for ETF inflows to around 400 tonnes for the full year from an earlier projection of 580 tonnes, although it noted that global ETF holdings remain up by 108 tonnes since the start of the year. Analysts said the largest risk to their outlook would be a scenario in which strong U.S. labour market conditions and rising inflation force the Federal Reserve into a prolonged cycle of interest rate hikes, potentially leading to sustained outflows from Western gold-backed ETFs. Source： https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/commodities/articles/goldman-maintains-bullish-gold-outlook-141040865.html

May 22, 2026 7:07 AM EDT Key Points Central banks sold gold to defend currencies amid 2026 US-Israel-Iran conflict and energy crisis. Jeffrey Currie predicts gold could fall to $3,750 before rallying as structural buyers return. Long-term, AI-driven demand and underinvestment may push gold prices toward $10,000 per ounce. Gold has always been the asset investors run to when they stop believing in everything else. It is the trade that pays off when central banks lose credibility, when currencies wobble, when geopolitics get loud, and when the rest of the stock market finally cracks. For most of the past three years, that playbook worked beautifully. Sovereign buyers from Beijing to Warsaw to Ankara stacked bullion at a pace not seen in half a century. Retail piled in behind them. The metal blew through one all-time high after another, and the bears went quiet. Then 2026 happened. A US-Israeli war on Iran shut down the Strait of Hormuz, sent energy prices vertical, and forced some of the same central banks that drove the rally to start unloading their gold to defend collapsing currencies. The yellow metal has now given back almost all of its year-to-date gains, hovering near $4,534 an ounce on May 19, according to Fortune . Now one of Wall Street ’s most respected commodity voices is telling clients the pain is far from over. And the eventual payoff, if his call lands, will dwarf anything the gold market has ever produced. Why this gold selloff is just getting started The bear in question is Jeffrey Currie, the former global head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs ( GS ), who spent 27 years at the firm before leaving in 2023 and is now chief strategy officer of energy pathways at Carlyle Group ( CG ), according to Carlyle . He is best known for calling the 2000s commodity supercycle and predicting oil’s run past $100 a barrel. In a recent thread on X , the former Twitter, Currie wrote that he has been “short gold” since March despite describing himself as a “gold perma bull”. His thesis is mechanical, not philosophical. The Iran conflict and the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz have driven energy import costs higher and pressured emerging-market currencies. To defend those currencies and pay for fuel, some of the world’s most prolific gold buyers have flipped into sellers. Turkey is the cleanest example. Its central bank sold or swapped roughly 79 tons of gold in the first quarter alone, with “the largest sales from Turkey (60 tonnes) and Russia (16 tonnes) [offsetting] purchases elsewhere,” according to the World Gold Council . “When the marginal central bank flips from structural buyer to forced seller to pay for energy, gold’s biggest bid disappears,” Currie wrote on X . That dynamic, in his view, points to a deeper retracement. He sees gold sliding all the way toward $4,000, with a possible overshoot into the $3,750 range, before sovereign buyers, particularly China, step back in and restart the rally. The bigger thesis behind the $10,000 gold target Currie’s gold call sits inside a much bigger argument about how a decade of capital flows have left commodity markets dangerously under-invested. After running the numbers against his framework myself, the imbalance is more extreme than most equity investors realize. The argument starts with where the money has gone. The Magnificent Seven plus Oracle ( ORCL ) are projected to spend roughly $820 billion on artificial intelligence capital expenditure in 2026 alone, which Currie called “the largest physical commodity bid ever assembled inside eight income statements,” according to Benzinga . Meanwhile, the suppliers cannot keep up. The numbers Currie laid out paint a clear picture: Information Technology and Communication Services make up roughly 43% of the S&P 500 , while Energy and Materials together account for about 6%. Upstream oil and gas investment is down 35% from its 2015 peak. The world’s top 20 mining companies are spending 40% less than during the 2012 peak cycle, per Currie’s analysis. Central banks bought a net 244 tonnes of gold in Q1 2026, up 3% year-on-year. Source: Currie’s analysis via Benzinga Currie calls this transition the move from “HAGO” (Hard Assets, Global Operations) into “ HALO ” (Hard Assets, Local Operations), where physical commodities are repriced upward as supply struggles to meet AI -driven demand. “The price will overshoot first. The capex will follow. Then the new supply,” Currie wrote in his X thread . That sequence, in his framework, is what eventually pushes gold to $10,000. Once central banks stop fighting inflation , pivot back to easier policy, and resume buying physical metal, the same forced sellers of today flip back into structural bidders. What this gold call means for your portfolio None of this guarantees Currie is right. Plenty of veteran strategists have made bold price calls that aged poorly, and the path from $4,000 to $10,000 will almost certainly take years rather than quarters. Iris Cibre, founder of Phoenix Consultancy in Istanbul, has noted that Turkey’s recent gold operations were primarily designed to support the lira during a specific war-driven liquidity crunch, not a verdict on gold’s long-term value, according to the Canadian Mining Report . That distinction matters. Forced selling is not fundamental selling, and a 2025 survey found that 95% of central banks expected global gold holdings to rise over the next 12 months, according to the World Gold Council . In my analysis, what makes Currie’s framework interesting is the structural argument underneath the headline number. Markets have systematically underfunded the physical world for a decade while flooding the digital one with capital. If he is even directionally right, the next gold cycle is less about jewelry, inflation hedges, or fear trades. It is about repricing every ton of metal that an AI data center, an EV plant, or a defense supply chain ultimately needs, an argument that echoes Goldman’s own longer-term outlook for the rest of this decade. For investors holding the SPDR Gold Shares ( GLD ) ETF, which was up 3.32% year-to-date as of last week, the short-term setup looks ugly. Currie himself is positioned for a deeper drawdown first. But the same trade he is shorting today is the one he expects to flip aggressively long once the energy shock starts hurting growth. If you own gold, the next chapter of this story will probably be written by central banks, not by day traders. And central banks have very long memories. Source： https://www.thestreet.com/investing/veteran-goldman-strategist-makes-stunning-10000-gold-call

May 21, 2026 The gold price is stabilizing on Thursday morning. Following its recent setback to a multi-week low, the precious metal is trading firmer again on international markets. Spot gold currently changes hands at around $4,537 per troy ounce, equivalent to roughly €3,914 per ounce. With this move, the gold price extends the recovery that began after the multi-week low of May 19, when, according to CNBC, spot gold fell more than 2% to $4,474 per ounce, hitting its lowest price since March 30. The metal has thus given up substantial ground since its all-time high of $5,602.22 per troy ounce on January 28, 2026. The correction has been driven primarily by the Iran conflict that erupted in late February. Contrary to what many market participants expected, the geopolitical shock did not act as a classic safe-haven trigger. Instead, the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz produced an oil-price shock that, in turn, fueled inflation concerns. Gold has fallen about 12% since the Iran conflict began, weighed down by a stronger U.S. dollar, higher Treasury yields and reduced expectations for Fed rate cuts. ING's Manthey: $5,000 by Year-End Realistic Despite these headwinds, the medium-term outlook for the gold price remains constructive. Ewa Manthey, Commodities Strategist at ING, projects prices to reach $5,000/oz by year-end , supported by central bank demand and improving ETF flows. According to Manthey, the recent decline mainly reflects temporary macro headwinds — higher oil prices, a firmer U.S. dollar, and elevated real yields. Once the war comes to a conclusion, gold's underlying support should reassert itself, Manthey told deVere Insights . Over the coming months, the ING expert sees around six per cent upside as realistic. ING is not alone in its bullish stance: A recent Reuters poll of 31 metals analysts found a median forecast of $4,916 for 2026. Goldman Sachs is even more optimistic — the commodities team led by Daan Struyven expects gold to climb to $5,400 per troy ounce by the end of 2026. Central Banks and ETF Inflows as Key Drivers Two pillars underpin the bullish outlook. First, central banks worldwide are sticking with their buying strategy: The People's Bank of China added 8 tonnes to official gold reserves in April, the highest single-month acquisition in fifteen months. At a recent Goldman Sachs central bank conference, around 70 percent of polled central banks said they expect rising gold reserves globally over the next twelve months — and roughly the same share expect the gold price to settle above $5,000 within a year. Second, listed gold ETFs are seeing fresh inflows despite rising inflation concerns. Physical demand in Asia also remains robust: Premiums in Shanghai held positive against London spot throughout Tuesday's selloff, underscoring that the world's largest physical gold market absorbed supply at lower prices. In the days ahead, investors will focus on the U.S. flash PMI and weekly initial jobless claims, both expected on May 22, 2026 — weaker readings would typically feed into expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Should the data disappoint, the gold price could accelerate its move higher. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-price-ing-sees-usd5-000-mark-within-reach-by-year-end

Indonesian Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs, Airlangga Hartarto, explicitly denied rumors of a delay regarding the one-door export scheme for strategic commodities under PT Danantara Sumber Daya Indonesia (DSI), firmly stating that the policy will take effect as scheduled on June 1, 2026. Speaking at the Jakarta Presidential Palace Complex on Friday (May 22), Airlangga emphasized that there is no delay, explaining instead that the implementation will roll out in clear, phased intervals, detailing specific milestones for the first and second three-month periods leading up to full operational execution by January 1, 2027.

This week's stainless steel futures market reflected a classic divergence: external macro headwinds drove paper weakness, while domestic spot fundamentals held firm. We break down what drove the disconnect and what to watch next.

Published: May 20, 2026 - 1:58 AM Updated: May 20, 2026 - 2:40 AM (Kitco News) – Central bank gold purchases have come in stronger than previous estimates so far in 2026, and updated projections have sovereign demand rising further in the second half of the year, according to commodity strategists at Goldman Sachs. Goldman Sachs analysts announced on Friday that they have revised their central bank gold demand model to account for gaps in official trade data. Back in March, the investment bank raised its nowcast of central bank purchases to about 50 tonnes per month on a 12-month moving average basis, up from 29 tonnes under its earlier methodology. The bank now expects central banks to average around 60 tonnes per month through 2026, supported by continued diversification demand amid geopolitical uncertainty. Goldman analysts said their previous estimates had underestimated sovereign demand since August 2025, when UK trade data began failing to fully capture gold outflows from London vaults, resulting in unrecorded sovereign buying. "Strong underlying interest in gold remains evident," Goldman said, citing its own central bank survey along with recent geopolitical developments as factors likely to support increased demand from both governments and private investors over time. Goldman Sachs reiterated its $5,400 per ounce gold price target for year-end 2026, but warned that bullion prices could still face near-term pressure if investors are compelled to sell liquid assets to raise cash during market stress. Back in late January, as gold prices were setting fresh all-time highs above $5,000 per ounce, Goldman Sachs raised its December 2026 price target to $5,400 an ounce . At the time, Goldman analysts led by Daan Struyven and Lina Thomas wrote in a note that the upgraded forecast is based on their belief that private investors who bought gold as a hedge against macro policy risks will hold these positions through the end of the year. The analysts said that, unlike previous hedges which were tied to specific events – such as the November 2024 US election – gold positions taken to protect against risks such as fiscal sustainability are unlikely to be fully resolved this year and are therefore “stickier.” Emerging market central banks are “likely to continue the structural diversification of their reserves into gold,” the analysts said. The debasement trade is also prompting physical bullion purchases by high-net-worth families and investor call-option buying amid mounting concerns over the long-term monetary and fiscal policy trajectories in major economies, they noted. Risks to the updated forecast are “significantly skewed to the upside because private-sector investors may diversify further on lingering global policy uncertainty,” the analysts wrote. “That said, a sharp reduction in perceived risks around the long-run path for global fiscal/monetary policy would pose downside risk if it were to cause liquidation of macro policy hedges.” The diversification trend was already very much on Goldman’s radar heading into this year. In their 2026 Commodities Outlook published in late December , the investment bank wrote that gold is the best bet in the entire commodities complex, adding that if private investors join central banks in their diversification, the price could well exceed their base case – though they also advocated diversification across the commodities complex as well. “Even as gold remains our single favorite long commodity, we see a strong role for broader commodity length in strategic portfolio allocations,” they wrote. “The very high geographic concentration of commodity supply and the increasing geopolitical, trade, and AI competition has led to a more frequent use of commodity dominance as leverage. This raises the risk of supply disruptions, which underscores the insurance value of commodities.” “Equity-bond portfolios are not well-diversified when commodity supply losses drive both weaker growth and higher inflation as well as strong commodity returns,” the analysts warned. Source： https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-05-19/central-banks-are-buying-more-gold-expected-and-purchases-will-increase

May 20, 2026 At first glance, the price of silver appears to be stuck in a rut, with a sustained breakout above stubborn resistance levels still a long way off. But this calm is deceptive: according to experts, an environment is brewing beneath the surface of the financial system that could provide precious metals with massive tailwinds in the coming quarters. While stock markets near record highs give many investors a false sense of security, systemic risks are growing. This opens up an exciting prospect for commodity investors: The signs of a major shift in capital—away from overvalued growth stocks and toward tangible assets—are becoming increasingly evident. Between inflationary pressure and tight supply A key driver of this scenario is persistent inflation. Geopolitical tensions and oil prices above $100 per barrel are fueling inflation and limiting central banks’ room to maneuver. Even with a weakening economy, an aggressive interest rate cut policy is nearly impossible under these conditions. For the silver market, this is a double catalyst: On the one hand, high energy costs are driving up mining operators’ expenses, which makes production more expensive and constricts supply. On the other hand, in an inflationary, uncertain environment, the appeal of real assets—which cannot be multiplied at will—is growing. The interest rate trap for tech stocks as a catalyst However, analysts see the real powder keg in the bond markets. Long-term U.S. Treasury bonds with yields above 5 percent are increasingly becoming a threat to highly valued tech stocks. Their enormous market capitalizations are heavily based on profits that lie far in the future. If interest rates remain persistently high, this valuation logic will deteriorate drastically. This is precisely where experts see the trigger for the so-called “great rotation”: as soon as capital is withdrawn from highly valued tech stocks, it must find new investment targets. Commodities, precious metals, and domestic producers would be the primary beneficiaries of this shift. Future Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces a balancing act: He must stabilize the banking system while simultaneously withdrawing liquidity from the market to reduce the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet—a scenario that traditionally boosts physical silver and gold. Systemic risks bring physical assets into focus In addition to monetary policy, a growing loss of confidence in traditional financial assets supports the thesis of the precious metals bulls. High interest rates are putting massive pressure on highly indebted companies and the private credit sector. When stocks and bonds lose stability and the banking system appears more fragile, investors seek independence. In a highly leveraged environment, gold and silver offer precisely the advantage of not being dependent on the creditworthiness of third parties. International currency concerns also underpin this trend. India’s recent attempts to curb precious metal imports are a clear symptom of global anxiety about currency stability and the desire to preserve capital. Conclusion : The silver price is still in a consolidation phase. But if inflationary pressures, credit risks, and geopolitical tensions continue to intensify, the current market is not the end of the line, but rather the foundation for a revaluation, according to market experts. The looming rotation away from tech stocks toward real assets could be exactly the spark that catapults the silver price into a dynamic upward trend. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/silber-vor-der-grossen-rotation-warum-der-scheinbare-stillstand-truegt