This week, spot lithium carbonate prices retreated after a rapid rise and fluctuated downward overall. SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate prices continued to pull back, with industrial-grade lithium carbonate largely moving in sync. The futures market saw wild swings, with the price range of the most-traded contract fluctuating down from 170,000-173,000 yuan/mt at the beginning of the week to 154,300-162,800 yuan/mt. Intraday volatility was significant on each trading day, open interest continued to decline, and capital participation weakened. Market transactions remained sluggish, with upstream and downstream psychological price levels diverging further. Upstream lithium chemical plants saw stronger sentiment to hold prices firm and withhold sales this week, with relatively weak willingness to sell spot orders, and quoted prices generally staying above 164,000 yuan/mt. Downstream material plants, however, saw long-term contract volumes and customer-supplied volumes arrive successively at the beginning of the month, and, coupled with restocking through dip-buying at the start of last week, held relatively sufficient inventory at the beginning of the month. Purchase willingness was relatively weak, with only just-in-time procurement maintained, and the psychological purchase price level was basically around 155,000 yuan/mt. Market inquiries were moderate, but actual transactions were relatively mediocre. This week's price decline was mainly driven by the combined impact of multiple factors: First, supply side, repeated market rumors surrounding mines in Zimbabwe and Jiangxi continued to ferment, prompting some funds to close positions and exit, which became an important force pushing prices lower. As prices retreated from highs, earlier bulls showed stronger willingness to take profits; meanwhile, open interest continued to decline, reflecting increasingly cautious market sentiment. In addition, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East increased uncertainty from the macro perspective, also putting some pressure on prices. Capital flows were characterized by continued position reductions and rollovers into deferred-month contracts. Futures open interest continued its declining trend this week, with position reductions of varying degrees on each trading day. It is worth noting that open interest between the 2605 contract and the 2609 contract has already shifted, indicating that funds are gradually moving to deferred months and that the market's willingness to participate in the short-term market has declined. Looking ahead, the market is expected to maintain a relatively strong pattern in the short term. Supply side, continued attention is still needed on the recovery of shipments from Zimbabwean mines and on when Jiangxi mines will resume production; demand side, the intensive launch of new car models in April is expected to drive marginal demand improvement. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to remain relatively strong in the short term.

Weak Downstream Procurement Sentiment, Slight Decline in Nickel Salt Prices As of Thursday this week, the average SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate price edged down WoW. Demand side, as it was a procurement period, some producers had made inquiries recently, but because overall downstream orders fell short of expectations, acceptance of high-priced nickel salt was relatively weak; supply side, as MHP payables and auxiliary material prices had moved up recently, raw material costs for some producers increased, and quoted prices were raised accordingly. Looking ahead, cost support for nickel salt remained in place, but upside room for prices will depend on the downstream procurement pace. Inventory, this week the inventory index at upstream nickel salt smelters rose from 4.7 days to 5.3 days, the inventory index at downstream precursor plants increased from 6.5 days to 7.8 days, and the inventory index at integrated enterprises rose from 6.8 days to 7 days; in terms of buyer-seller strength, this week the Willingness to Sell Sentiment Factor at upstream nickel salt smelters held at 1.8, the procurement sentiment factor at downstream precursor plants held at 2.6, and the sentiment factor at integrated enterprises held at 2.4. (Historical data is available in the database.)

Most second-quarter orders in the domestic EV market have been signed sequentially. While some manufacturers saw modest upward adjustments in payables, overall market changes remained limited.

This week, ternary cathode precursor prices rose somewhat. Today, nickel sulphate prices edged down slightly, cobalt sulphate prices held steady, and manganese sulphate prices increased slightly. Discounts, for April and Q2 orders, some producers were willing to raise discounts due to large fluctuations in raw material prices. Long-term contracts, some producers recently finalized long-term contracts; some producers saw slight increases in nickel and cobalt discounts, while some producers may still have some room for negotiation on processing fees. However, as downstream demand for high-priced raw materials remained weak, upside room is expected to be limited. Spot orders, the Ni-Co-Mn coefficient for March spot orders had already moved higher, and with current downstream procurement sentiment weak, further upside room is expected to be limited. Production, as China entered the off-season for demand this month, some enterprises saw their production schedules pull back. The export tax rebate deadline had passed, and production intensity at some enterprises related to the rush to export also declined. Looking ahead, cost support for sulphates remained relatively strong, but downstream acceptance of prices will depend on Q2 downstream demand.

Precious metal prices were in the doldrums today, and the spot-futures price spread between TD and the most-traded SHFE silver contract had not narrowed significantly for the time being, while relatively large differences in spot market quotations still existed. In the Shanghai market, during the morning session, mainstream quotations from suppliers of standard silver ingots were at premiums of 80-100 yuan/kg against TD, or at a premium of 50 yuan/kg against the SHFE silver 2606 contract. However, due to weak downstream purchase interest, some suppliers lowered premiums and concluded a small number of deals. It was understood that, as the situation surrounding the U.S.-Iran conflict remained unclear, investment demand for precious metals fell sharply, and downstream buyers generally stayed on the sidelines and purchased cautiously. Some smelters sold cargoes self-picked up from production site at reduced premiums of 50 yuan/kg against TD, and with relatively ample spot cargoes circulating in the market, overall spot transactions were sluggish.

[SMM Daily Review: Lower Nickel Prices Loosened Quotations, Shifting Down the Price Center of High-Grade NPI] April 2 News: SMM's upstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 2.74, up 0.03 MoM, while the downstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 1.51, up 0.01 MoM.

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: LME Zinc Posted a Four-Day Winning Streak; Focus on Trump's Speech Today] Overnight, LME zinc posted a four-day winning streak, with the center of the daily candlestick moving higher. Trump released a TACO signal, expectations for an end to the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East increased, the US dollar index fell, nonferrous metals saw bargain hunting, zinc inventory remained at low levels, and bears' exit provided support, driving zinc prices all the way up. Focus on......

Iron phosphate negotiations in April were deadlocked, with offers hitting 13,000 yuan/mt. The price surge appeared raw-material driven, but in fact reflected pricing power shifting upstream after a reversal in supply-demand fundamentals. Downstream buyers cited “cost increases” to push back, yet conveniently forgot the upstream losses quietly absorbed over the past three years. This was never about simple cost pass-through—it was a restructuring of profit distribution across the chain.

At a conference call on March 31, Sungrow stated regarding the company’s overall target plan for energy storage shipments in 2026 that the global market is expected to grow by 30–50 in 2026. With raw material prices rising, some projects were in a wait-and-see stage, but the demand should still exist and would only be deferred. The company will strive based on the upper end of market growth, hoping to achieve more than 60 Gwh.

[SMM Daily Brief Review of Coking Coal and Coke] In terms of supply, most coke producers maintained relatively stable operating rates, and downstream buyers showed moderate enthusiasm for coke procurement, with smooth shipments from coke producers and no obvious inventory pressure for the time being. On the demand side, steel mills were currently in the stage of blast furnace production resumptions, increasing rigid demand for coke, but no significant improvement was seen in end-use demand for finished steel products, market sentiment weakened, and steel mills' purchase willingness declined somewhat. In summary, the first round of coke price increases was officially implemented, but market sentiment pulled back recently, most steel mills had moderate coke inventories, the coke supply-demand structure gradually shifted toward balance, and the coke market may remain generally stable with slight rise in the short term.