[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Sticky US Inflation Persisted, and the Center of LME Zinc Moved Lower] Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,313/mt. In early trading, LME zinc maintained a fluctuating trend and touched a high of $3,352/mt. Entering the European trading session, LME zinc quickly fell to a low of $3,296.5/mt. In the night session, LME zinc gradually recovered its losses and fluctuated upward, hovering near the daily average line, before closing down at $3,315.5/mt, down $26.5/mt, or 0.79%. Trading volume decreased to 91,642 lots, and open interest increased by 494 lots to 217,000 lots.

[Repeated Macro Sentiment Led to Wide Swings in SHFE Zinc]: The most-traded SHFE zinc 2604 contract opened at 24,370 yuan/mt. SHFE zinc briefly rose in early trading to a high of 24,460 yuan/mt, after which bulls reduced their open interest, and SHFE zinc fluctuated downward with its center moving lower, eventually closing down at 24,300 yuan/mt, down 85 yuan/mt, or 0.35%. Trading volume increased to 109,000 lots, while open interest fell by 1,494 lots to 74,220 lots.

[[Weekly Review of Aluminum Scrap and Secondary Aluminum]]Aluminum Prices Strengthened This Week, Rising Costs Drove Up ADC12 Prices

Refined Cobalt: This week, spot refined cobalt fluctuated rangebound around 430,000 yuan/mt. On the supply side, mainstream smelters slightly lowered ex-factory prices, while traders' spot-futures price spread remained stable: regular brands were at discounts of 2,000 yuan/mt to parity, and high-end brands at premiums of 5,000–8,000 yuan/mt. On the demand side, cost pass-through downstream remained sluggish, with market participants mainly staying on the sidelines. Only sporadic rigid-demand restocking emerged, and transactions had yet to gain volume. Fundamentally, the arrival period for cobalt intermediate products remained unclear, and the structural tightness in raw materials was unchanged, leaving support at the bottom still in place. Looking ahead, as restocking demand is gradually released, refined cobalt prices are still expected to have upside room. Cobalt Intermediate Products: This week, cobalt intermediate product prices continued to hold steady. On the supply side, miners' export progress was slow, holders temporarily held back offers, and spot cargo available for circulation was scarce. On the demand side, raw material shortages at smelters worsened. Although purchase willingness remained, both buyers and sellers stayed cautious due to unstable supply and unclear downstream orders, and the market continued to see "offers but no trades." Overall, export delays cast doubt on the timing of bulk arrivals, and the structural tightness in raw materials in China may worsen further; once downstream orders are finalized and procurement restarts, intermediate product prices are still expected to have upward momentum. Going forward, attention should be paid to export progress in the DRC and the pace of demand recovery. Cobalt Sulphate: This week, spot cobalt sulphate prices held steady. On the supply side, supported by tight raw materials, most smelters kept offers firm in the 95,000–98,000 yuan/mt range; small smelters and traders under capital pressure had already completed cashing out from last week to early this week, and low-price offers in the market narrowed. On the demand side, uncertainty over downstream orders persisted, with most enterprises remaining on the sidelines. Post-holiday stockpiling willingness had yet to start, with only sporadic rigid-demand restocking and priority given to lower-priced cargoes. In the short term, the market remained in a period of social inventory digestion, with rangebound adjustments dominating; however, the raw material supply bottleneck in the DRC remained unresolved, domestic supply tightened periodically, and cost support still existed. After low-priced inventory is depleted, prices are expected to resume their rise.

[SMM Zinc Morning Comment] The most-traded SHFE zinc 2604 contract opened lower with a gap at 24,245 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE zinc fluctuated and dipped to 24,095 yuan/mt. Subsequently, as bears reduced open interest, SHFE zinc gradually rose above the daily average line, touched a high of 24,385 yuan/mt near the close, and finally closed down at 24,375 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt, or 0.04%. Trading volume decreased to 54,485 lots, and open interest increased by 94 lots to 74,314 lots.

[Spot Silicon Metal Prices Probe Higher as Market Transactions Remain Stagnant; Polysilicon Price Trend Declines]: On the supply side, production release from silicon metal capacity that resumed production in early March increased total silicon metal supply compared with early March. Recently, there have been scattered production resumptions in Southwest China, but these have not yet become widespread, so their impact on supply growth has been very limited. On the cost side, spot prices of silicon coal and electrodes have remained temporarily stable recently, while petroleum coke prices rose slightly. Coupled with higher gasoline prices, road transport freight rates were raised slightly, providing relatively strong cost support for silicon metal. On the demand side, performance has mainly remained stable recently. During the week, spot silicon metal transactions were stagnant, inventory in the intermediate segment stayed at a high level, and downstream demand was weak, so silicon metal prices had limited room to rise or fall and were mainly range-bound in consolidation.

This week, the cobalt chloride market atmosphere was even more sluggish WoW, and the price stalemate continued. Although top-tier enterprises remained firm in their willingness to hold prices firm, with mainstream quotations still staying above 117,000 yuan/mt and the highest quotations reaching 120,000 yuan/mt, downstream procurement sentiment did not improve WoW and remained relatively cautious. Constrained by weak end-use demand and the relatively ample raw material inventory at material plants, market inquiries decreased noticeably, and actual transactions were mainly sporadic restocking, with the transaction center at 115,000 yuan/mt. Low-priced sales by some small traders were insufficient to move the broader market. Overall, market activity declined, and buyers and sellers fell into a game of tug-of-war. Prices are expected to remain stable in the short term, lacking the momentum to break the stalemate. SMM New Energy Research Team Wang Cong 021-51666838 Ma Rui 021-51595780 Feng Disheng 021-51666714 Lyu Yanlin 021-20707875 Zhou Zhicheng 021-51666711

[SMM Magnesium Weekly Review: Magnesium Market Continued to Consolidate at High Levels, with Cost Support and Demand Stalemate Persisting] This week, the overall magnesium industry chain continued to consolidate at high levels, with prices of all categories remaining largely stable. The raw material dolomite market operated steadily, with differentiated supply across regions but overall stability, while the procurement pace on the demand side remained steady. The magnesium ingot market remained in a supply and demand stalemate, as producers showed strong reluctance to sell, and low circulating inventory supported firm quotations. However, both domestic trade and foreign trade demand appeared weak, transactions were sluggish, and FOB quotations stayed at high levels, though actual deals were limited. The magnesium powder market remained stable with a firm tone, domestic trade demand continued to recover steadily, foreign trade growth was limited, and cost support remained in place. The magnesium alloy market's benchmark price held steady, processing fees remained firm, enterprise operating rates rebounded, and downstream demand gradually recovered, though the pace of growth slowed, with overall transactions remaining mild. Looking ahead, the tug-of-war between cost support and weak demand is expected to continue, and the market may continue to consolidate at high levels.

[SMM Rare Earth Weekly Review: Rare Earth Prices Fell First, Then Rose; Pr-Nd, Dysprosium, and Terbium Saw Wide Swings] Due to the combined impact of market news and falling futures prices, suppliers in the Pr-Nd oxide market lacked confidence in the future market and proactively cut prices for shipments. However, upstream separation plants believed that the tight supply pattern of Pr-Nd oxide had not changed. Therefore, Pr-Nd oxide prices pulled back to 760,000-780,000 yuan/mt before rebounding to 790,000-800,000 yuan/mt.

[SMM Silicone Weekly Review: Downstream Procurement Sentiment in the Silicone Market Remained Cautious, and New Order Transactions Were Relatively Weak] After completing the price increase last week, quoted prices generally remained stable this week, but actual market transactions were relatively weak. Cost side, affected by geopolitical developments, raw material methanol prices held up well, which also provided some support for silicone DMC prices. However, subsequent impacts and changes still require close attention to the extent of raw material price fluctuations and the duration of their effects.