This week, ferrous metals exhibited a pattern of initial weakness followed by strength. At the beginning of the week, after the U.S.-Iran peace talks failed to reach an agreement, the U.S. military announced it would impose a blockade on all maritime traffic in and out of Iranian ports, pushing international oil prices higher once again. Mid-week, disturbances from iron ore long-term contract negotiations intensified, with market rumors suggesting that restrictions on certain previously limited products had been partially lifted. Subsequently, news emerged of an unexpected shutdown at an Australian refinery, raising market concerns that a diesel supply deficit could trigger mine shutdowns, which in turn would lead to short-term supply tightening. Coupled with rising expectations of a second round of coke price increases, ferrous metals successfully rallied in the latter half of the week...

This week, stainless steel production costs showed a strengthening upward trend, while spot prices rose even more significantly. The cost-price inversion at stainless steel mills was repaired, and profits gradually recovered. Taking 304 cold-rolled products as an example, based on current raw material prices, the full cost profit margin reached 1.79% this week; calculated using inventory raw material costs, the profit margin was 1.99%. On the nickel-based raw material cost side, high-grade NPI prices showed a strengthening upward trend this week. Affected by the revision of Indonesia's nickel ore HMP, the market expected nickel ore costs to rise. Combined with the continued strengthening of SHFE nickel and SS futures, bullish expectations in the high-grade NPI market were strong. After downstream stainless steel mill profits recovered, their acceptance of high-priced raw materials improved, driving high-grade NPI quotes to stop falling and rebound. As of this Friday, mainstream high-grade NPI with 10-12% grade rose 10 yuan per nickel unit, closing at 1,090 yuan/nickel unit. Stainless steel scrap market side, stainless steel scrap prices rose sharply this week, driven by nickel ore cost increases and futures market linkage. The revision of nickel ore pricing pushed up cost expectations, and combined with the simultaneous rise in high-grade NPI, raw material linkage drove prices higher. Although the cost advantage of stainless steel scrap narrowed slightly, it remained attractive to steel enterprises, and market trading activity improved. Despite delayed payment issues dragging on trading pace, the market remained generally strong under futures-spot resonance and demand support, and was expected to consolidate at highs in the short term. As of this Friday, mainstream 304 off-cuts prices in Shanghai rose 200 yuan/mt, with the latest quote at approximately 10,350 yuan/mt. On the chrome-based raw material cost side, high-carbon ferrochrome prices continued their downward trend this week. Although stainless steel prices strengthened somewhat, procurement transactions in the high-carbon ferrochrome market remained sluggish recently. Earlier maintenance and production cut plans were insufficiently implemented, and current supply remained at a relatively high level. Meanwhile, recent declines in chrome ore and coke prices further weakened cost support, and rising nickel-based raw material costs also exerted some downward pressure on ferrochrome prices. As of this Friday, mainstream high-carbon ferrochrome prices in Inner Mongolia fell 75 yuan/mt (50% metal content) WoW, closing at 8,475 yuan/mt (50% metal content).

[SMM Steel] Steel exporters in Asia and Turkey are increasingly shifting from CFR to FOB offers as the Iran-related conflict drives up freight costs and disrupts shipping. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, while freight from India to Europe has risen to ~$80/t (vs. $50–60/t previously). Indian mills have suspended or converted shipments to FOB, with some March cargoes delayed. Meanwhile, limited imports have pushed up flat steel prices in the GCC, with supply disruptions affecting availability.

【SMM Steel】India's Shyam Steel Ltd signed an MoU with Maharashtra to build an integrated steel mill in the western state. SSL will invest ~$1.07bn to expand its footprint across western regional steel markets. Currently, its manufacturing facilities are located in West Bengal and Jharkhand in eastern India.

[SMM Coking Coal and Coke Daily Brief] Supply side, coking enterprises in Shanxi, Hebei, and other regions saw tightened production due to the concentrated push by local governments for ultra-low emission retrofits. However, production in other regions rose instead of declining, keeping overall coke supply stable with a slight increase. Demand side, steel mill hot metal production continued to increase, driving strong rigid demand for coke. Steel mills with low inventory had a strong willingness to restock, while other steel mills purchased as needed with stable rigid demand. Overall, coke supply and demand remained in a tight balance. The second round of coke price increases is expected to materialize, and the coke market may hold up well next week.

On April 17, SMM reported that a major Indonesian stainless steel mill increased the price gap between 304 and 316L series from $1,800/mt to $1,850/mt. The widening spread is driven by the soaring price of molybdenum, a key element in 316L. Research indicates that molybdenum concentrate supply remains tight due to aging mining equipment, environmental production curbs, and export restrictions in major producing countries. Simultaneously, surging demand from aerospace and defense industries has further pushed up molybdenum product prices. Additionally, Indonesia's new nickel pricing formula and geopolitical risks have collectively raised the overall cost benchmark for the 300-series.