Dalian iron ore futures were strong in today's afternoon session. The most-traded contract I2609 ultimately closed at 763 yuan/mt, up 1.26% from the previous trading session. Spot prices rose 5-8 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Traders quoted actively, while steel mills purchased cautiously; overall spot cargo transactions were mediocre. In terms of fundamental data, SMM survey data showed that China's iron ore port arrivals increased by 2.71 million mt WoW last week, reaching 27.13 million mt, up 10.1%; global total shipments rose 15.8% WoW to 33.71 million mt. As Australian ports recovered from cyclone impacts to normal operations, their shipments grew significantly, laying the foundation for the continuation of a loose supply-side pattern in the short term. Looking ahead, as domestic blast furnace utilization rates reached their peak, iron ore demand is expected to be secured. Meanwhile, the collapse of US-Iran negotiations and the US order to blockade the Strait of Hormuz added uncertainty to the Middle East situation, and market expectations for energy prices further provided cost support for iron ore prices. Therefore, on a comprehensive basis, iron ore prices are expected to hold up well in a fluctuating trend this week.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Last Friday evening, LME copper opened at $12,744/mt, dipping to $12,642/mt early in the session. The price center then fluctuated upward to a high of $12,928/mt before fluctuating downward to finally close at $12,857/mt, up 1.27%, with trading volume at 22,000 lots and open interest at 293,000 lots, down 4,028 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears reducing positions. Last Friday evening, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at 99,200 yuan/mt, fluctuated upward early in the session to reach 99,750 yuan/mt, then the price center gradually shifted lower to a low of 99,090 yuan/mt, followed by wild swings before finally closing at 99,310 yuan/mt, up 1.04%, with trading volume at 45,000 lots and open interest at 171,700 lots, down 2,724 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears reducing positions.

This week, ferrous metals fluctuated downward, with raw materials declining significantly more than finished steel. Cost-side logic weakened further during the week. Mid-week, both the U.S. and Iran indicated they had entered the final stage of finalising negotiation details, causing overseas market crude oil to plunge and dragging down the coal sector. In the latter half of the week, rumors emerged that negotiations between China Mineral Resources and BHP would be announced next week, with iron ore leading the downward trend. On the finished steel side, inventories of the five major steel products continued to destock, maintaining a structure of both rising supply and demand. Spot market side, futures were weak, end-user purchasing enthusiasm was lukewarm, the spot-futures price spread widened somewhat, and some market arbitrageurs between spot and futures began to take profits...

The planned rebar production in April was 8.0385 million mt, an increase of 103,500 mt or 1.30% from the actual production in March. The planned wire rod production in April was 2.9614 million mt, a decrease of 128,700 mt or 4.16% from the actual production in March. In April, the long product export scheduled production of sample steel mills was 791,000 mt, up 79,000 mt MoM, of which the steel billet export scheduled production was 420,000 mt, up 110,000 mt MoM.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,579.5/mt, touching a low of $12,536.5/mt early in the session. Copper prices then shifted higher, reaching a high of $12,712/mt before ultimately closing at $12,695.5/mt, down 0.27%, with trading volume at 18,000 lots and open interest at 297,000 lots, an increase of 3,404 lots from the previous trading day, mainly driven by bears adding positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at 98,080 yuan/mt, touching a high of 97,820 yuan/mt early in the session and a low of 97,720 yuan/mt early in the session. Copper prices then shifted higher, reaching a high of 98,260 yuan/mt before ultimately closing at 98,070 yuan/mt, up 0.27%, with trading volume at 22,000 lots and open interest at 174,000 lots, a decrease of 1,255 lots from the previous trading day, mainly driven by bears reducing positions.

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