On April 13, the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate average price declined slightly.

SMM Nickel News, April 13: Macro and market news: (1) Trump: A blockade will be imposed on all ships attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz, ships paying transit fees to Iran in international waters will be intercepted, and Iranian mines laid in the strait will be cleared. Apart from the nuclear issue, the US and Iran have "reached agreement on most issues." (2) According to US officials and informed sources, President Trump and his advisors are considering resuming limited military strikes against Iran while imposing a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz to break the deadlock in peace negotiations. Spot market: On April 13, SMM #1 refined nickel prices fell 400 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums: Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 3,350 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; domestic mainstream brand electrodeposited nickel ranged from -400 to 400 yuan/mt. Futures market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2605 contract moved sideways in the morning session, closing at 134,000 yuan/mt, up 0.43%. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to continue fluctuating within the 130,000-138,000 yuan/mt range, supported below by cost underpinning from rising ore and sulfur prices, and capped above by high global inventory (LME inventory above 280,000 mt, continued social inventory buildup in China) and sluggish downstream demand recovery.

Nickel market remained in the doldrums this week. On the first trading day after the Qingming Festival, both SHFE and LME nickel opened low and trended lower, with a lack of market drivers. Combined with the Strait of Hormuz blockade triggering broad pressure on risk assets, nickel prices were clearly in the doldrums. However, mid-week, the announcement of a US-Iran ceasefire sharply boosted risk appetite, the US dollar index came under significant pressure, and nickel prices rebounded notably alongside improved sentiment across the non-ferrous sector in and outside China. Spot market, the weekly average price of SMM #1 refined nickel was 135,363 yuan/mt, down 300 yuan/mt WoW. Jinchuan nickel premiums continued to weaken, with the weekly average at 3,500 yuan/mt, down 300 yuan/mt WoW. Trading of imported cargoes and domestic electrodeposited nickel was overall sluggish, spot premiums declined in tandem, and downstream procurement was mainly driven by rigid demand, with limited willingness to restock. On the macro front, on April 7, US President Trump announced that if Iran agreed to fully open the Strait of Hormuz, the US would agree to suspend military operations against Iran for two weeks. Iran's Supreme National Security Council promptly accepted the ceasefire proposal. However, the stability of the ceasefire agreement remained in doubt, as the Strait of Hormuz was closed again on April 8. Geopolitical risks were not fully resolved, and market sentiment may continue to swing wildly as the situation fluctuates. US March non-farm payrolls data rebounded beyond expectations, hitting a high of over a year. After the data release, market bets on US Fed interest rate cuts cooled notably. The minutes of the US Fed's March FOMC meeting showed that the vast majority of officials believed progress on inflation pullback could be slower than expected, and the rate cut path had already narrowed significantly before the ceasefire. Inventory, Shanghai Bonded Zone inventory was approximately 1,700 mt this week, flat WoW. Domestic social inventory was approximately 92,000 mt, with an inventory buildup of about 200 mt WoW. Currently, nickel prices are caught between geopolitical risk fluctuations and weak fundamentals. In the short term, the core fluctuation range for the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to be 130,000–138,000 yuan/mt.

SMM Nickel News, April 10: Macro and market news: (1) Data from the NBS showed that in March, consumer demand pulled back seasonally after the extended Chinese New Year holiday, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) down 0.7% MoM and up 1.0% YoY. (2) Sources said that Iran had informed Pakistan, the mediator in the negotiations, that the Iranian delegation would not participate in peace talks with the US until a ceasefire was achieved in Lebanon. Previously, on April 9, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Sayed Khatibzadeh said the Iranian delegation would head to Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan, for negotiations. Spot market: On April 10, SMM #1 refined nickel prices rose 200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums: Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 3,350 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel brands ranged from -400 to 400 yuan/mt. Futures market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2605 contract surged in the morning session before pulling back slightly, closing at 133,210 yuan/mt, down 0.72%. In the short term, Indonesia's policy tightening and cost support have built a solid floor for nickel prices, but high inventory and weak end-use demand capped upside room. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in a core range of 133,000-143,000 yuan/mt.

LME nickel futures jumped by US$354/ton to US$17,302/ton, while the spot price rose by US$349/ton to US$17,103/ton. LME-monitored inventories edged down by 138 tons to 281,358 tons. The rebound is primarily fueled by Indonesia’s tight nickel ore quotas (RKAB), which were capped at 190–200 million tons, signaling constrained supply at the mining level. A weaker US dollar, following a two-week Middle East ceasefire, further bolstered prices. However, high refined nickel inventories and ample NPI supply, coupled with slower-than-expected demand recovery in China’s stainless steel and EV sectors, suggest that nickel prices will remain volatile in the short term.

SMM Nickel News, April 9: Macro and Market News: (1) On April 8 local time, US President Trump posted on his social media platform "Truth Social" that any country providing military weapons to Iran would face "immediate 50% tariffs" on "any and all goods" sold to the US, adding that the measure would "take effect immediately" with "no exclusions or exemptions." (2) US Fed March meeting minutes: more officials mentioned the possibility of rate hikes. The Fed's mouthpiece noted that the ceasefire made it harder for the Fed to decide. Spot Market: On April 9, SMM #1 refined nickel prices rose 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums: Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 3,350 yuan/mt, down 250 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; domestic mainstream brand electrodeposited nickel premiums ranged from -400 to 400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2605 contract opened higher today but then fluctuated downward, closing at 133,000 yuan/mt, down 0.02%. In the short term, Indonesia's policy tightening and cost support have built a solid floor for nickel prices, but high inventory and weak end-use demand capped upside room. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to operate in a core range of 133,000-143,000 yuan/mt.