Middle East tensions have sparked a massive steel trade "mismatch." Iran's blocked exports created a 2.3-million-ton billet vacuum in Southeast Asia, while the Red Sea crisis stalled China's flat steel shipments to the Gulf. Consequently, China and India are rapidly absorbing SEA's diverted billet orders. SMM projects that blocked flat steel returning to China's domestic market, combined with surging overseas billet demand, will accelerate the narrowing of the domestic HRC-rebar spread.

After a strong start, the price of gold slipped twice to around $5,060 during this trading week. Now, it appears that gold prices might manage to stay just above $5,100 heading into the weekend, continuing the persistent sideways movement of the past five weeks.

Eskom in South Africa issued an urgent announcement that it would initiate Level 2 power rationing load shedding measures at 16:00 on May 13 (Tuesday), which would continue until 22:00 on May 15 (Thursday). This move aims to address the limited power generation capacity and ensure stable power supply during working days.

[SMM Analysis of China's LFP Market in April] In April 2025, the price of LFP in China plummeted, while production saw a slight increase compared to expectations, boosted by demand from the NEV sector. It is expected that production will continue to grow in May, but prices will struggle to rise.

On April 18, the AICE 2025 SMM (20th) Aluminum Industry Conference & Expo, hosted by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (SMM), co-organized by Zhongyifeng Jinyi Technology (Suzhou) Co., Ltd. and Lezhi County Qianrun Investment Promotion Service Co., Ltd., and sponsored by Shangli County Keyuan Metallurgical Materials Co., Ltd., Press Metal International Ltd., Delta Metal (Holdings) Limited, Jinqiao Light Alloy Technology (Jiangmen) Co., Ltd., and other entities as forum title sponsors, Sunstone Development Co., Ltd. and Shanghai Jialang Industrial Co., Ltd. as forum co-organizers, and supported by various specially invited supporters, conference supporters, conference acknowledgment units, and media partners, successfully concluded at the Suzhou International Expo Center in Jiangsu!

On April 16, at the AICE 2025 SMM (20th) Aluminum Industry Conference and Aluminum Industry Expo—Alumina and Aluminum Raw Materials Forum, co-hosted by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd., SMM Metal Trading Center, and Shandong Aisi Information Technology Co., Ltd., and co-organized by Zhongyifeng Jinyi (Suzhou) Technology Co., Ltd. and Lezhi Qianrun Investment Service Co., Ltd., Mingxin Guo, Senior Analyst of Bauxite at SMM, delivered a presentation on the topic "2024 Price Review and 2025 Trend Outlook for the Global Alumina Market." He pointed out that in 2025, overseas alumina capacity expected for commissioning is projected to reach 4 million mt, while aluminum capacity expected for commissioning is estimated to be less than 1 million mt. In 2026, overseas alumina supply and demand are both expected to increase, with overseas alumina production projected to rise by 2.79 million mt and overseas aluminum production expected to increase by 1.08 million mt. Based on an alumina consumption rate of 1.925, overseas alumina demand is expected to expand by 2.08 million mt, resulting in an estimated increase in alumina surplus by 710,000 mt to approximately 2.51 million mt.