Since April, the lead-acid battery market has shown off-season trends. Dealers were cautious in procurement, and orders for producers generally pulled back compared to March. Even though lead prices held up well recently, selling prices in the battery wholesale market struggled to catch up, with some regions even showing tendencies toward price cuts and sales promotions. On the producer side, after lead prices rose, factories produced based on sales and reduced non-just-in-time procurement. Some enterprises only made purchases through long-term contracts, and trading activity in the lead spot market was poor.

SMM April 10: LME lead opened at $1,931/mt this week. Early in the week, prices fluctuated higher amid geopolitical tensions, touching a high of $1,962.5/mt. From mid-week onward, the market weakened and fluctuated downward, dipping to a low of $1,919.5/mt before rebounding slightly at the close, ultimately settling at $1,923/mt, down $9 from the weekly open, a decline of 0.47%. The most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at 16,755 yuan/mt this week. Early in the week, lead prices experienced wild swings within the 16,660-16,805 yuan/mt range, briefly surging higher during the session on easing geopolitical tensions and touching a high of 16,885 yuan/mt. Prices subsequently pulled back as bulls took profits and downstream consumption remained weak, dipping to a low of 16,575 yuan/mt at the close, ultimately settling at 16,685 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan WoW, a decline of 0.6%. 》Subscribe to view SMM metal spot historical prices

As of April 10, in-factory inventory of major delivery brands of primary lead stood at 19,700 mt, an increase of approximately 3,000 mt WoW. This week, lead prices held up well, with SHFE lead once approaching 16,900 yuan/mt. Suppliers actively made shipments, and primary lead smelters in south China switched to shipping at discounts. Spot order quotations were quoted at premiums of approximately -50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price on an ex-factory basis. However, after lead prices rose, downstream enterprises showed notably weakened enthusiasm to purchase. Apart from just-in-time procurement, they made no additional purchases. Smelters faced increasing difficulty in making shipments, leading to a buildup in in-factory inventory. In addition, next week is the delivery week for the SHFE lead 2605 contract, and some suppliers intend to transfer inventory and ship to delivery warehouses. It is expected that smelters' inventory pressure will ease relatively going forward.

SMM April 10 update: This week, the mainstream ex-factory prices of secondary refined lead were at discounts of 75-0 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, adjusting along with fluctuations in lead prices. Dragged by the consumption off-season, downstream purchasing sentiment was generally weak, with smelters mostly adopting a wait-and-see approach while holding prices firm, and the tug-of-war between upstream and downstream continued. Affected by tight scrap battery supply and high raw material costs, losses at secondary lead smelters widened further WoW. As of April 10, the theoretical comprehensive profit/loss for large-scale enterprises was -184 yuan/mt, and for small and medium-sized enterprises -388 yuan/mt (excluding tin and antimony by-product revenues). Next week, production ramp-up at resuming smelters and production cuts at smelters facing raw material shortages will coexist, with a tug-of-war between longs and shorts on the supply side. Enterprise losses are expected to remain in the doldrums. Meanwhile, as the consumption off-season continues, weak purchasing sentiment from downstream battery plants will weigh on secondary lead prices. However, scrap battery raw material costs still provide support, and SMM expects secondary lead premiums to move sideways. >> Subscribe to view SMM metal spot historical prices

SMM, April 10: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,943/mt. During the Asian session, prices dipped briefly before oscillating higher to touch $1,948/mt. Entering the European session, lead prices continued to weaken, hitting a low of $1,921/mt, before rebounding slightly toward the close, ultimately settling at $1,925.5/mt, down $22/mt or 1.13%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened lower with a gap at 16,710 yuan/mt. Early in the session, prices moved sideways within the 16,710-16,745 yuan/mt range, touching a high of 16,745 yuan/mt, before coming under pressure and weakening to a low of 16,675 yuan/mt. After 23:00, prices rebounded slightly but lacked upward momentum, ultimately closing at 16,705 yuan/mt, forming a bearish candlestick, down 80 yuan/mt or 0.48%. Supply side, social inventory of lead ingots across five major regions in China decreased slightly. Some secondary lead enterprises accelerated resumption of production after the holiday, with capacity gradually being released. Meanwhile, some smelters cut production slightly due to raw material shortages of scrap batteries, presenting a mixed supply picture. Demand side, the market was dominated by just-in-time procurement, with a few participants restocking on dips, while most others primarily fulfilled long-term contracts, and the spot order market remained sluggish. Resistance on SHFE lead became increasingly evident, and lead prices were expected to maintain a range-bound consolidation trend going forward.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,943/mt. Prices dipped briefly during the Asian session before rising in a volatile manner, touching a high of $1,948/mt. Entering the European session, lead prices continued to weaken, hitting a low of $1,921/mt. Prices rebounded slightly toward the end of the session, ultimately closing at $1,925.5/mt, down $22/mt, a decline of 1.13%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened lower with a gap at 16,710 yuan/mt. Early in the session, prices moved sideways within the 16,710-16,745 yuan/mt range, touching a high of 16,745 yuan/mt. Prices then came under pressure and weakened, hitting a low of 16,675 yuan/mt. After 23:00, prices rebounded slightly but lacked upward momentum, ultimately closing at 16,705 yuan/mt, posting a small bearish candlestick, down 80 yuan/mt, a decline of 0.48%. On the macro front: 1. Trump warned Iran not to charge tolls for passage through the Strait of Hormuz. 2. Putin announced a 32-hour ceasefire for Orthodox Easter, and Ukraine followed suit. 3. The Israeli PM ordered direct negotiations with Lebanon. 4. Sources said Iran would not engage in peace talks with the US until a ceasefire was achieved in Lebanon. 5. US media: The US government was expected to extend Russian oil sanctions waivers this week, potentially paving the way for Iranian oil waivers. 6. Yemen's Houthi forces threatened to tighten Red Sea passage over the Lebanon attack issue. 7. He Lifeng met with Ray Dalio, founder of US investment company Bridgewater. 8. Four government departments held a symposium with enterprises in the power and ESS battery industry. Spot fundamentals: Macro sentiment shifted, non-ferrous metals pulled back broadly, and SHFE lead also declined in a volatile manner. Suppliers became less willing to make shipments, and quoted discounts narrowed compared to the previous day. Additionally, the price spread for primary lead cargoes self-picked up from production site widened, especially in South China where quoted discounts expanded further. Mainstream production areas were quoted at premiums of -50 to +25 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead, ex-works. Secondary lead side, smelters made shipments following the market trend. Secondary refined lead was quoted at premiums of -50 to 0 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. Downstream enterprises only made just-in-time procurement, with a few purchasing on dips, while others mainly took delivery under long-term contracts. The spot order market was sluggish. Inventory side, as of April 9, LME lead inventory decreased by 250 mt to 278,775 mt; SMM social inventory of lead ingots across five regions pulled back slightly. Lead price forecast for today: Supply side, social inventory of lead ingots across five regions in China decreased slightly. Some secondary lead enterprises accelerated resumption of production after the holiday, with capacity gradually being released. Meanwhile, some smelters cut production slightly due to raw material shortages of scrap batteries, presenting a mixed picture on the supply side. Demand side, the market was dominated by just-in-time procurement, with a few entities restocking on dips, while the rest mainly fulfilled long-term contracts. The spot order market saw sluggish trading activity. SHFE lead faced increasing resistance from above, and lead prices were expected to maintain a range-bound consolidation trend going forward.