Today, the most-traded BC copper contract 2606 opened at 91,360 yuan/mt, touching a low of 90,580 yuan/mt at the start of the session before fluctuating upward. During the day session, it opened higher with a gap, reaching a high of 92,080 yuan/mt, then quickly pulled back and swung wildly, ultimately closing at 91,220 yuan/mt, up 0.45%. Open interest stood at 6,534 lots, down 258 lots from the previous trading day, with trading volume at 6,586 lots, indicating bears reducing positions. On the macro front, Iran's foreign minister announced that commercial vessels could transit the Strait of Hormuz normally, easing market risk-aversion sentiment somewhat. However, the optimistic expectations released by Trump regarding a second round of US-Iran negotiations were refuted by the Iranian side. Bullish and bearish sentiment fluctuated repeatedly, and the market remained cautious overall, with copper prices moving sideways. On the fundamentals front, supply side, imported copper arrivals increased, while domestic supply remained tight due to smelter maintenance. Demand side, with copper prices fluctuating at highs, downstream buyers mainly made just-in-time procurement. Regarding inventories, as of Monday, April 20, SMM copper inventories in major regions nationwide decreased 12.21% WoW from the previous Monday. SHFE copper 2606 contract closed at 102,620 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2605 contract at 91,220 yuan/mt, its after-tax price was 103,078 yuan/mt. The price spread between SHFE copper 2606 and BC copper was -458, remaining inverted but narrowing compared to the previous day.

SMM April 20 News: Data Brief: As of Monday, April 20, SMM copper inventories in mainstream regions nationwide decreased 12.21% WoW, with total inventory up 66,700 mt YoY, marking six consecutive weeks of destocking. Specifically, in Shanghai, imported arrivals increased marginally while domestic arrivals remained relatively low; combined with the widening Shanghai-Guangdong price spread driving warehouse withdrawals, overall inventory continued to decline. In Jiangsu, affected by smelter maintenance, domestic arrivals dropped significantly, while the pace of warehouse withdrawals remained stable, further driving destocking. In Guangdong, the prior destocking trend continued; although downstream consumption pulled back slightly, domestic arrivals remained consistently low due to factors such as maintenance and increased local consumption, which remained the core support for continued inventory decline. Outlook: Supply side, imported sources are expected to gradually replenish the market, but overall domestic arrivals remain at relatively low levels, and the tight supply pattern has not fundamentally changed. Demand side, downstream enterprises still primarily make just-in-time procurement, with the overall consumption pace slowing down slightly compared to the prior period. According to survey data, the weekly operating rate of copper cathode rod is expected to drop to 72.38% this week, down 5.43 percentage points WoW. Considering both supply and demand sides, the market has formed a pattern of "tightening supply and slightly slowing consumption," and social inventory is expected to continue destocking this week.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,240.5/mt, fluctuated upward to a high of $13,295/mt in early trading, then the copper price center dropped sharply to $13,182.5/mt, followed by wild swings, and finally closed at $13,242/mt, down 0.26%, with trading volume at 17,000 lots and open interest at 287,000 lots, a decrease of 2,451 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls reducing positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2606 contract opened at 102,350 yuan/mt, rose to 102,510 yuan/mt in early trading, then the copper price center dropped sharply to 101,700 yuan/mt, before fluctuating upward to finally close at 102,290 yuan/mt, down 0.09%, with trading volume at 28,500 lots and open interest at 174,000 lots, an increase of 820 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears adding positions.

Today, the most-traded BC copper 2605 contract opened at 90,550 yuan/mt, touching a low of 90,460 yuan/mt at the beginning of the session before the center fluctuated upward. It touched a high of 91,580 yuan/mt near the close and ultimately settled at 91,460 yuan/mt, up 0.78%. Open interest stood at 6,834 lots, an increase of 178 lots from the previous trading day, while trading volume was 3,856 lots, a decrease of 2,382 lots from the previous trading day. On the macro front, market optimism grew over the prospect of the Middle East conflict nearing an end, as Pakistan's mediation representatives arrived in Tehran, and the Trump administration also released signals that a US-Iran deal could be reached, improving expectations for passage through the key Strait of Hormuz shipping lane. Meanwhile, Trump urged Powell to step down as soon as possible, accelerated the confirmation process for Fed nominee Warsh, and stated that interest rates are expected to be cut after he takes office. Overall, expectations for a new round of US-Iran peace talks were in line with market consensus, and copper prices stabilized accordingly. Fundamentals side, supply side, imported copper arrivals maintained the previous pace, while domestic copper arrivals remained relatively low. Demand side, downstream enterprises mainly made just-in-time procurement, restocking on an as-needed basis. Inventory side, as of Thursday, April 16, SMM copper inventories in major regions nationwide fell 11.46% WoW from the previous Thursday, with total inventories up 49,400 mt YoY. Inventories continued destocking for the fifth consecutive week. The SHFE copper 2605 contract closed at 102,680 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2605 contract price of 91,460 yuan/mt, the after-tax price was 103,350 yuan/mt. The price spread between the SHFE copper 2605 contract and BC copper was -670 yuan/mt, showing an inverted spread that widened from the previous day.

SMM April 14 News: Data Brief: As of Thursday, April 16, SMM copper inventories across major regions nationwide decreased 11.46% WoW, with total inventory up 49,400 mt YoY, marking five consecutive weeks of destocking. The Shanghai market remained dominated by just-in-time procurement, with arrivals of imported copper staying stable. Domestic supply saw improved shipment enthusiasm after delivery completion, while arrivals decreased somewhat, and overall inventory continued its downward trend. In Jiangsu, downstream demand was steady and improving, with inventory showing a steady destocking trend. Although consumption in the Guangdong market weakened recently, limited arrivals remained the primary driver of inventory decline. Looking ahead, supply side, imported copper arrivals are expected to maintain the previous pace, while domestic copper arrivals remain relatively low. Demand side, downstream enterprises are expected to mainly make just-in-time procurement and restock on an as-needed basis. Overall supply-demand pattern, the current market features tight supply and just-in-time procurement-driven consumption. Social inventory is expected to continue destocking next week, but the destocking pace is expected to slow down.

Recently, the center of copper prices continued to shift upward. The most-traded SHFE copper contract steadily climbed after hitting a periodic low of 91,500 yuan/mt on March 23, 2026, reaching a high of 103,130 yuan/mt as of April 15, representing a gain of 12.71% from low to high, with the latest closing price at 102,090 yuan/mt. The latest LME copper price stood at $13,262.5/mt. The interaction between macro sentiment and fundamentals jointly drove the market to hold up well. This round of copper price strength was not dominated by a single factor, but rather the result of a resonance of multiple factors including geopolitical conflicts, supply constraints, inventory changes, and seasonal consumption patterns. Regarding the core driving logic behind the current copper price strength, SMM will provide a detailed analysis from three dimensions: the contraction of SX-EW copper supply outside China, the macro perspective on the US dollar and geopolitical developments, and China's copper inventories and supply-demand pattern. The details are as follows: （I) Sulphuric Acid Export Restriction Policies Strengthened Expectations for SX-EW Copper Production Cuts, and Supply Contraction Supported Copper Prices Sulphuric acid prices have been rising continuously since March, mainly due to the ongoing escalation of tensions in the Middle East. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries approximately 50% of the world's seaborne sulphur volume, has been disrupted, leading to an overall tightening of global sulphur supply. In China's sulphuric acid production, approximately 40% comes from sulphur-based acid production and 40% from smelting acid. China is highly dependent on sulphur imports, and the tightness in raw material supply has provided certain support for domestic sulphuric acid prices. The DRC is the world's second-largest copper-producing country, with production highly dependent on sulphuric acid. According to SMM, producing 1 mt of copper cathode locally requires 2–6 mt of sulphuric acid. Based on an average of 4 mt, annual sulphuric acid consumption is approximately 10 million mt, of which more than half relies on imports from the Middle East. The Middle East is both a critical global energy transportation route and a core hub for sulphur trade. The current US-Iran conflict has lasted 46 days, and local smelter sulphuric acid inventory is at low levels. Coupled with China, as a major global sulphuric acid exporter, imposing export restrictions, ex-China sulphuric acid supply has tightened further. The sulphuric acid shortage has constrained SX-EW copper output to a certain extent, creating expectations of a contraction in global copper cathode supply and providing clear bullish support for copper prices. According to SMM, SX-EW copper production in the DRC and Zambia has been gradually suffering losses recently, especially at some smaller smelters. The originally projected SMM global copper cathode balance surplus for 2026 is expected to slow down YoY. Expectations of copper cathode supply losses have strengthened, and the market is expected to gradually shift from a loose balance to a tight balance. The tightening supply-side expectations are set to provide support for copper prices. II. Easing geopolitical tensions coupled with inflation pullback push the US dollar index lower, providing support for copper prices Earlier, the escalating tensions in the Middle East continued to push up energy prices, increasing inflationary pressures. Expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts cooled somewhat, and the market gradually priced in unchanged interest rates for the full year. Recently, signs of easing emerged in the geopolitical conflict. Trump stated that the US and Iran are expected to hold talks in Pakistan within the next two days. Pakistan called for a 45-day ceasefire extension, and both sides agreed to continue negotiations, with only the time and location yet to be determined. According to sources familiar with the matter, Iran is considering temporarily suspending shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz to create a favorable atmosphere for negotiations, and the US military has no plan to attack Iranian oil tankers. On April 14, Trump publicly stated that the military campaign against Iran was nearing its end, with positive signals being gradually released, The pullback in crude oil prices and the weakening of the US dollar index provided some support for copper prices. Meanwhile, the pullback in oil prices eased inflationary pressures, leaving room for subsequent interest rate cuts, and sentiment improved somewhat. III. Social Inventory Declined for Five Consecutive Weeks; Combined with Peak Consumption Season and Maintenance Cycle, Tight Supply-Demand Conditions Supported Copper Prices After the Lantern Festival, copper prices gradually pulled back, downstream consumption recovered somewhat, and SMM social copper inventories in major regions across China continued to destock from mid-March. Recently, copper prices rebounded somewhat, downstream purchasing became more cautious, and the destocking pace slowed down. As of April 13, SMM social copper inventories in major regions across China had decreased from 578,900 mt on March 9, 2026 to 299,800 mt, maintaining destocking for five consecutive weeks. China is currently entering the traditional peak consumption season. Copper scrap policies still carry certain uncertainties, and the overall operating rate of scrap utilization enterprises remains relatively low, providing some support for copper cathode rod consumption. Meanwhile, global smelters are entering a concentrated maintenance period in Q2, further tightening the supply side. The continued decline in inventory, combined with a tight supply-demand pattern, is providing some support for copper prices. Overall, the macro front and fundamentals are currently forming a degree of resonance, providing relatively positive support for copper prices. From a macro perspective, geopolitical conflicts showed signs of easing, the US dollar index pulled back somewhat, and earlier inflationary pressures were alleviated to some extent. On the fundamentals side, tightening sulphuric acid supply constrained SX-EW copper output outside China, SMM China social inventory continued to decline, and combined with relatively strong domestic fundamentals, the supply-demand pattern showed a tightening trend. However, as copper prices rebounded above 100,000 yuan/mt, downstream acceptance weakened somewhat, and recent purchase willingness also turned slightly cautious. Going forward, it is worth watching whether actual demand performance during the traditional peak season can meet expectations against the backdrop of high copper prices.