Australian mining company BHP has outlined a global pipeline of copper projects that could expand its production capacity by 1.8–2 million tonnes over the next decade, in response to rising global demand. BHP also projects that global copper demand will increase from approximately 34 million tonnes per year in 2026 to more than 50 million tonnes by 2050.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $11,816/mt. After dipping to $11,798/mt in early trading, its center rose sharply to a high of $12,395/mt, then hovered at highs, and finally closed at $12,221/mt, up 3.27%. Trading volume reached 52,000 lots, and open interest stood at 292,000 lots, down 944 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting bears cutting positions overall. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at 95,010 yuan/mt. After the opening, its center moved higher to a high of 95,900 yuan/mt, after which copper prices maintained a fluctuating trend at highs. Near the close, it dipped to 94,530 yuan/mt and finally closed at 93,840 yuan/mt, up 2.12%. Trading volume reached 120,000 lots, and open interest stood at 198,000 lots, down 6,741 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting bears cutting positions throughout the day.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: LME copper opened overnight at $13,300/mt and touched a high of the same level, initially fluctuating downward before the center of copper prices shifted straight down, then experiencing wide swings and probing as low as $12,787/mt, ultimately closing at $12,855/mt, down 2.9%, with trading volume reaching 22,100 lots and open interest at 322,000 lots, down 3,871 lots from the previous session, overall reflecting long liquidation. The most-traded SHFE copper contract 2603 opened overnight at 102,030 yuan/mt, initially climbing to 102,350 yuan/mt before fluctuating rangebound, then the center of copper prices pulled back straight to touch a low of 99,400 yuan/mt, ultimately closing at 100,030 yuan/mt, down 2.58%, with trading volume reaching 57,700 lots and open interest at 143,000 lots, down 4,515 lots from the previous session, overall reflecting long liquidation.

India’s copper demand rose sharply (~9.3% in FY25) while domestic supply lagged, underscoring strategic vulnerability and the need for diversified sourcing, including imports and recycled copper inputs.

Today, the most-traded BC copper contract 2603 opened at 89,220 yuan/mt. At the beginning of the session, copper prices fluctuated downward, touching a low of 88,220 yuan/mt, then fluctuated considerably upward. After the daytime session opened higher with a gap, prices moved sideways before fluctuating upward toward the end of the session, reaching a high of 92,940 yuan/mt, and finally settled at 92,570 yuan/mt, up 2.39%. Open interest fell to 5,846 lots, down 529 lots from the previous trading day, while trading volume reached 11,600 lots, indicating bear position reduction. From a macro perspective, the Trump administration plans to launch a $12 billion critical minerals strategic reserve program named the "Gold Vault Plan." Domestically, the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association proposed including copper and copper concentrates in the reserve through a commercial discount model. On the supply side, spot copper cathode resources remained generally ample, with mainstream brands continuing to see sufficient supply. Demand side, affected by the rebound in copper prices, market trading activity weakened significantly compared to the previous day. SHFE copper contract 2603 settled at 104,500 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper contract 2603 price of 92,570 yuan/mt, its after-tax price is 104,604 yuan/mt, resulting in a price spread of -104 between SHFE copper 2603 and BC copper. The spread remained inverted and widened from the previous day.

Rio Tinto will supply copper to Amazon’s AI data centers under a two-year agreement, highlighting booming AI-related copper demand. This trend underscores the strategic importance of recycled and circular supply solutions to supplement constrained primary sources.