Gold prices extended their gains further on Friday, primarily driven by a weaker US dollar and a statement from Iran's foreign minister that the Strait of Hormuz would remain open during the ceasefire. This news pushed oil prices lower and eased some market concerns about inflation. During Friday's US trading session, spot gold rose nearly 2%, briefly approaching $4,900. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi posted that vessels passing through the strait would follow coordinated routes already published by Iran's Ports and Maritime Organization. US President Trump said he believed a deal to end the Iran war would be reached "soon," although the specific timetable remained unknown. Peter Grant, Vice President and Senior Metals Strategist at Zaner Metals, said: "The reopening of the strait is a pivotal event. With oil prices under pressure, this is expected to ease inflation concerns and reignite expectations for interest rate cuts — all of which is genuinely positive news for gold." He added that gold prices could return above $5,000 per ounce in the near term . Following the comments about the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, the US dollar and oil prices extended their declines. A weaker dollar made gold more attractive to buyers holding other currencies. The move also boosted market expectations for a US Fed interest rate cut before the end of the year. Traders currently see roughly a 60% probability that the US Fed will cut its benchmark interest rate before December. Gold prices had briefly declined after the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran in late February, as surging energy prices intensified inflation concerns, prompting markets to scale back expectations for interest rate cuts. Since gold itself generates no interest, it typically loses some of its appeal when borrowing costs stay high. Meanwhile, according to trade sources, Indian banks have suspended placing gold and silver orders with ex-China suppliers as the government has yet to issue official documents authorizing imports, leaving several metric tons of precious metals stranded at customs.

April 17 news, according to CME "Fed Watch": The probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 0.5%, and the probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged is 99.5% (unchanged from this morning). The probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points by June is 7.1%, the probability that the interest rate will remain unchanged is 92.4%, and the probability that the interest rates will increase by 25 basis point is 0.5% (1.4%, 98%, and 0.5% respectively this morning). The probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points by July is 18.1%, the probability that the interest rate will remain unchanged is 80.6%, and the probability that the interest rates will increase by 25 basis point is 0.4% (9.7%, 89.7%, and 0.5% resp

Industrial metal prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) surged to a record high, driven by rising aluminum prices after the Middle East war disrupted supply, as well as a recent recovery in copper prices. The LME Index, which tracks six major metals, rose nearly 12% over the past four weeks and hit an all-time high at Thursday's close , gaining 3.6% this week. Aluminum prices have risen about 15% since the outbreak of the Iran war, with approximately 9% of global aluminum production coming from the Middle East. Aluminum carries the largest weighting in the index, and together with copper, the two metals account for nearly three-quarters of the index's weighting. JPMorgan warned that the aluminum industry is heading toward a "black hole," and even if flows through the Strait of Hormuz resume, "the global aluminum market will face severe and prolonged supply disruptions." This week, the bank told clients that the market has now entered a void, and aluminum prices could break through $4,000 per mt, as the industry is set to face the largest supply deficit in 25 years. Aluminum hit a record high of $4,073.50 per mt in 2022, when the Ukraine conflict triggered a similarly severe supply shock. Aluminum supply losses escalated sharply after Iran directly attacked two major smelters in Abu Dhabi and Bahrain at the end of last month, and a severe and lasting supply deficit is hitting the market. The dual blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the US and Iran has also hindered transportation of goods. However, despite the waterway remaining closed, hopes that the US-Iran ceasefire will be extended, along with signs that both sides may be moving toward a peace deal, have provided support for other metals. These metals had previously been hit by surging energy costs and concerns that the war would slow down global growth, but rebounded recently on signs that the conflict may be nearing an end. Trump claimed on Thursday, without any evidence, that Iran had agreed to terms it had long resisted, including abandoning its nuclear weapons ambitions. Tehran has not confirmed that it has made concessions. Mercuria Energy Group and BMO Capital Markets predicted this week that copper prices will surpass the record high set in January. They noted that Chinese buyers are returning to the market, and the White House's upcoming tariff decision is also encouraging more exports to the US. Copper prices have risen 11% over the past four weeks, just about 3% below their record closing price. (Jin10 Data)

Although the silver market is expected to see a sixth consecutive year of annual supply deficit, one market strategist believes this may not be enough to push silver prices back to their January all-time highs. In his latest report on silver, Mike McGlone, senior market strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, reiterated his relatively mediocre expectations for the precious metal. He stated that silver prices could "meander for years" between $50 and $100. McGlone made the above comments as silver was struggling to sustain a break above initial resistance at $80. While McGlone did not rule out the possibility of silver retesting the $120 high set in January, he noted that rising prices would lead to a fundamental shift in supply-demand dynamics. He stated: "A key takeaway is that the supply deficit will change due to this parabolic price adjustment, and the market could transition into a phase of high-price-driven demand destruction. " McGlone noted that silver's current trajectory resembles parabolic fluctuations seen in other periods. He explained that silver's rally, which began in mid-2025, reached a premium of 2.6 times its 10-year moving average at its peak, strikingly similar to the last parabolic move in 2011. McGlone stated: "We see parallels. Silver was around $79 on April 15, and silver appears set for a prolonged stagnation between $50 and $100. Given the risk of mean reversion, the probability of silver pulling back toward its 10-year moving average near $33 is greater than the probability of it staying above $100. " Meanwhile, McGlone reminded investors that silver's 180-day volatility is more than five times that of the S&P 500. This reading reached its highest level since 1980, when silver topped just below $50 — a high that was matched in 2011 and not surpassed until 2025. Looking ahead, McGlone believes that if the trend reverses, silver could retrace to $50. McGlone's bearish expectations come as the market digests the Silver Institute's annual report, which forecasts this year's annual silver deficit at 46.3 million ounces. However, as silver consumption in PV solar cell panels is expected to decline by 19%, industrial demand this year is expected to fall by 3% . Metals Focus, the research firm responsible for the survey, expects investment demand to be the biggest driver of the silver market this year. The survey showed that, driven by 30 mt of physical inflows into silver exchange-traded products (ETPs), silver investment demand is expected to grow by 18% this year.

On April 16 (Thursday), the DRC, through a state-backed marketing agency, increased the volume of copper it plans to sell to the US to 500,000 mt, a fivefold increase from its initial commitment in January. As first reported by Semafor, the deal was led by state-owned mining company Gécamines, with sales conducted through a joint venture with Mercuria Energy Group and backed by the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation. The deal aimed to sell copper produced from Gécamines' minority stakes in major operations including Kamoto Copper Company and Tenke Fungurume Mining. The expanded agreement underscored the DRC's growing influence in the global copper market while intensifying competition for control over critical minerals supply chains. The Kinshasa government is seeking to convert passive shareholdings into direct revenue and gain greater commercial control. Gécamines has been working to convert its stakes in some of the country's largest mines into physical copper that can be sold independently. Its holdings include Glencore's Kamoto Copper Company and Tenke Fungurume, operated by Chinese enterprises — one of the world's highest-grade copper-cobalt deposits. Although the partnership aimed to enhance transparency and control, Mercuria remained the seller of record while Gécamines established its internal trading division. Analysts noted that this transformation required substantial investment in financing, insurance, and risk management, as well as access to physical markets. The DRC's copper production surged to 3.5 million mt in 2025, consolidating its position as the world's second-largest supplier after Chile. The production growth was driven by record copper prices and surging demand fueled by the expansion of EVs, renewable energy, and data centers. (Wenhua Composite)

Wells Fargo Securities' bull-case forecast for gold suggests that after last month's pullback in gold prices, gold prices could surge remarkably to $8,000 per ounce . Before the US-Iran war broke out on February 28 this year, gold had been one of the hottest market momentum plays of the year. However, after the war began, gold prices declined. In March, gold futures prices fell nearly 11%, marking the largest single-month decline since June 2013. But the Wall Street investment bank expects the "debasement trade" — in which central banks around the world sell fiat currencies such as the US dollar in favor of more neutral safe-haven assets — could push the precious metal to new heights. Wells Fargo Securities' chief equity strategist Ohsung Kwon wrote: "We are in the fourth currency debasement cycle, which started in 2022." Kwon added: "After the recent pullback in gold prices, prices are now closer to our model's fair value of $4,500 per ounce. Looking at the three drivers, all of them suggest that currency debasement will deepen further from current levels." The strategist said that four out of five economic scenarios point to further currency debasement, and gold prices could rise to $8,000 per ounce by 2027 as a result . Spot gold and gold futures were last trading near $4,800 per ounce, implying more than 66% upside room . Conversely, Kwon's bear-case forecast shows gold prices falling to $4,000 per ounce by the end of 2027, a decline of about 17% from current levels. Kwon uses the M2/gold ratio — M2 money supply divided by the gold price per ounce — to identify the current cycle. The analyst said the ratio shows that the latest debasement cycle began in 2022, when Russia launched its military operation against Ukraine and the US entered a rate-hiking cycle, prompting central banks worldwide to ramp up gold purchases. Previous currency debasement cycles for gold occurred during: the Great Depression; the "Nixon Shock" — when then-President Richard Nixon ended the convertibility of the US dollar into gold — and the subsequent stagflation era; the War on Terror in the early 2000s; and the subprime mortgage crisis. Kwon added that currency debasement cycles last an average of 8.5 years, and the current cycle, at 3.5 years in, has not yet reached its halfway point.