SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,237/mt, touched a low of $13,213/mt early in the session before the center fluctuated upward, reached a high of $13,330/mt and then began to fluctuate downward, ultimately closing at $13,245/mt, down 0.78%, with trading volume at 18,000 lots and open interest at 281,000 lots, an increase of 478 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears adding positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2606 contract opened at 102,500 yuan/mt, quickly tested a high of 102,830 yuan/mt early in the session, then copper prices dropped sharply to a low of 102,280 yuan/mt, and subsequently fluctuated downward to ultimately close at 102,490 yuan/mt, down 0.13%, with trading volume at 31,000 lots and open interest at 199,000 lots, an increase of 2,351 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears adding positions.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, Shanghai spot copper premiums remain under pressure. Demand side, according to SMM, some downstream enterprises saw a slight improvement in orders WoW, and end-user acceptance of current copper prices may have improved, with just-in-time procurement continuing. Market structure side, the inter-month Contango price spread between futures contracts widened slightly, and suppliers showed a tendency to hold prices firm; meanwhile, some suppliers chose to lower offer prices for shipments to control inventory levels, leading to divergent market expectations for the outlook. Inventory side, SMM data showed that social inventory in the Shanghai area decreased by 5,400 mt WoW from Thursday, while the Jiangsu area decreased by 6,700 mt, with the destocking pace continuing. Overall, under the combined effects of mild demand recovery, support from the price spread structure between futures contracts, and some selling pressure, Shanghai spot copper prices against the 2605 contract are expected to remain at a discount tomorrow.

SMM April 20 update: Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract today: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 260 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 170 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 110 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 102,880 yuan/mt, up 840 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 102,775 yuan/mt, up 835 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Returning from the weekend, Guangdong inventory continued to decline sharply and had now fallen for 24 consecutive trading days, mainly due to low arrivals. Despite the significant inventory drawdown, rising copper prices dampened downstream restocking enthusiasm, and suppliers could only maintain last Friday's prices, unable to hold prices firm further. Guangdong copper cathode purchasing sentiment today was 2.31, down 0.05 from the previous trading day, and shipments sentiment was 3.6, down 0.03 from the previous trading day (historical data available via the SMM database). Overall, the sharp inventory decline failed to offset rising copper prices. Premiums today remained flat compared with last Friday, and overall trading activity was weak.

Today, #1 copper cathode spot prices in North China against the front-month contract were reported at an average discount of 150 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The average transaction price was 102,715 yuan/mt, up 885 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to next week, on the supply side, some delivery warrants have already begun to flow out during the day, exerting downward pressure on spot premiums. Market concerns over the concentrated release of warrants going forward persist, and suppliers have a strong willingness to sell, putting spot premiums for Shanghai copper under pressure. On the demand side, copper prices saw a slight correction, and downstream procurement was mainly driven by rigid demand, with insufficient willingness to chase higher prices. In addition, the intraday price spread between Shanghai and Guangdong spot premiums continued to rise to around 150 yuan/mt. The strong premiums in Guangdong may provide some support to Shanghai market sentiment, but it is difficult to reverse the overall weak supply-demand pattern in the short term. Overall, spot copper prices against the SHFE copper 2605 contract are expected to remain at current levels next Monday.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,240.5/mt, fluctuated upward to a high of $13,295/mt in early trading, then the copper price center dropped sharply to $13,182.5/mt, followed by wild swings, and finally closed at $13,242/mt, down 0.26%, with trading volume at 17,000 lots and open interest at 287,000 lots, a decrease of 2,451 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls reducing positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2606 contract opened at 102,350 yuan/mt, rose to 102,510 yuan/mt in early trading, then the copper price center dropped sharply to 101,700 yuan/mt, before fluctuating upward to finally close at 102,290 yuan/mt, down 0.09%, with trading volume at 28,500 lots and open interest at 174,000 lots, an increase of 820 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears adding positions.