SMM, April 14: The most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at 16,615 yuan/mt today. From the early session to mid-session, SHFE lead prices moved sideways within the range of 16,570-16,625 yuan/mt. Toward the end of the session, driven by a broad rally in non-ferrous metals, lead prices rose and touched a high of 16,690 yuan/mt before pulling back slightly to close at 16,655 yuan/mt, posting a bullish candlestick with a gain of 85 yuan/mt, or 0.51%. Lead prices edged higher today, buoyed by recovering macro sentiment. Fundamentals side, some secondary lead smelters in east China halted production this week due to shrinking scrap battery recycling volumes and tight raw material supply, while imported lead ingots continued to flow into China in April, intensifying the tug-of-war between longs and shorts on the supply side. The consumption side remained weighed down by the off-season, with overall performance staying weak. Amid the tug-of-war between sentiment-driven momentum and weak fundamentals, lead prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term. Data source statement: Data other than publicly available information is derived from publicly available information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

SMM, April 9: The most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at 16,760 yuan/mt during the session. SHFE lead prices dipped slightly at the beginning of the session, touching a low of 16,715 yuan/mt, before rebounding and stabilizing. Towards the end of the session, SHFE lead prices fluctuated around the daily average line, ultimately closing at 16,785 yuan/mt, recording a small bearish candlestick, down 15 yuan/mt or 0.09%. Overnight, the Lebanon-Israel conflict continued to escalate, hostile actions between Iran and Israel resumed, and Iranian media reported that the Strait of Hormuz had been fully closed. Combined with rising expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes, the non-ferrous metals sector was broadly under pressure during the session. Supply side, more enterprises resumed operations after the Qingming Festival and maintenance capacity gradually recovered, with both primary lead and secondary lead supply increasing slightly. Demand side, downstream enterprises only maintained just-in-time procurement, a few entities restocked on dips, while the rest primarily fulfilled long-term contracts, and spot order market transactions remained sluggish. In the short term, upward momentum for lead prices is insufficient, and prices are expected to move sideways. Data source statement: Data other than publicly available information is derived from publicly available information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

SMM, April 8: The most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at 16,775 yuan/mt during the session. In early trading, eased geopolitical tensions drove a broad rally across non-ferrous metals, pushing SHFE lead prices to fluctuate upward and touch a high of 16,885 yuan/mt. However, as fundamentals provided weak support for lead prices, the price center shifted lower. From mid-session to the close, prices moved sideways within the range of 16,790-16,855 yuan/mt, ultimately closing at 16,800 yuan/mt with a small bullish candlestick, up 70 yuan/mt or 0.42%. Tensions in the Middle East eased significantly today, with relevant parties including the US and Iran reaching a temporary ceasefire consensus, reducing the risk of regional conflict escalation. The recovery in macro sentiment drove lead prices higher. On the fundamentals side, some secondary lead smelters planned to cut production due to shrinking scrap battery recycling volumes. Combined with the concurrent resumption and maintenance at secondary lead smelters in April, the tug-of-war between longs and shorts on the supply side intensified. On the consumption side, the ongoing traditional off-season continued to weigh on demand, with downstream battery manufacturers exhibiting strong wait-and-see sentiment and weak purchase willingness. Under the combined influence of sentiment-driven support and fundamental tug-of-war, SHFE lead prices are expected to hover at highs in the near term. Data source statement: Data other than publicly available information is derived from publicly available information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

SMM, April 7: The most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at 16,755 yuan/mt. Early in the session, SHFE lead prices dropped sharply, hitting a low of 16,635 yuan/mt, before rebounding in a fluctuating manner to touch a high of 16,820 yuan/mt. However, weighed down by weak downstream consumption, lead prices came under pressure and pulled back again. During the afternoon session, prices moved sideways within the 16,660-16,690 yuan/mt range, edging slightly higher toward the close, and ultimately settled at 16,730 yuan/mt, posting a bearish candlestick with a decline of 55 yuan/mt, or 0.33%. Supply side, for primary lead, suppliers actively made shipments upon returning from the holiday, with some lowering their quoted discounts. For secondary lead, secondary refined lead had ample circulating supply in the market, and quotes overall weakened today. Consumption side, as lead prices had been at elevated levels recently, downstream buyers generally adopted a wait-and-see approach, reluctant to purchase at high prices, resulting in extremely low market trading activity. Lead prices were capped by weak downstream consumption, limiting upward momentum, while raw material costs provided rigid support on the downside. Amid the tug-of-war between longs and shorts, lead prices were expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the near term. Data source statement: Data other than publicly available information was derived by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and not as decision-making advice.

SMM News, March 27: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,906.5/mt. It edged up slightly in early trading and, after hitting a high of $1,908/mt, fluctuated downward, with the price center continuing to move lower to a low of $1,883.5/mt. It then rebounded quickly and fluctuated rangebound within the $1,889.5-1,897.5/mt range, finally closing at $1,890/mt. It posted a small bearish candlestick, down $21.5/mt, or 1.12%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened lower with a gap at 16,390 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE lead prices fell rapidly to a low of 16,365 yuan/mt, then fluctuated upward to a high of 16,450 yuan/mt. During the session, SHFE lead prices fluctuated rangebound within the 16,405-16,435 yuan/mt range, and finally closed at 16,415 yuan/mt. It posted a small bullish candlestick, down 45 yuan/mt, or 0.27%. On the supply side, quotes from suppliers at primary lead smelters were relatively firm, and some were quoted at premiums due to reduced spot circulation. This week, inventory of delivery-brand primary lead fell by 6,800 mt WoW, which was expected to provide some support for primary lead prices. Most secondary lead smelters did not offer quotes, while some cargoes were quoted ex-works at a premium of around 50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. This week, the resumption pace at secondary lead smelters accelerated, with the operating rate rebounding 3.69% WoW, production increasing by 3,090 mt, and finished product inventories also accumulating on a weekly basis. On the demand side, downstream purchasing sentiment diverged, with both wait-and-see sentiment toward new-month long-term contracts and purchase as needed coexisting, and overall market transactions were average. SMM expected lead prices to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,906.5/mt. It edged up slightly in early trading and, after hitting a high of $1,908/mt, fluctuated downward, with the price center continuing to move lower and touching a low of $1,883.5/mt. It then rebounded quickly and fluctuated rangebound within the $1,889.5-1,897.5/mt range, finally closing at $1,890/mt. It posted a small bearish candlestick, down $21.5/mt, or 1.12%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened lower with a gap at 16,390 yuan/mt. SHFE lead prices fell rapidly in early trading and touched a low of 16,365 yuan/mt, then fluctuated upward and hit a high of 16,450 yuan/mt. During the session, SHFE lead prices fluctuated rangebound within 16,405-16,435 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 16,415 yuan/mt. It posted a small bullish candlestick, down 45 yuan/mt, or 0.27%. On the macro front: 1. US media: The US Department of Defense was considering redirecting military aid to Ukraine for use in the Middle East. 2. Turkey sold 22 mt of gold in a single week, the highest since 2018. 3. Trump: At the request of the Iranian government, strikes on Iran's energy facilities were postponed; Iran denied it. 4. Trump unveiled a "big gift" for Iran: allowing 10 oil tankers to pass through the strait. 5. Fuel surcharges on China domestic routes were set to rise on April 5. Spot fundamentals: SHFE lead remained in the doldrums. Suppliers' quotations were slightly firm, and due to reduced circulating cargoes, some were quoted at premiums. Meanwhile, quotations for primary lead cargoes self-picked up from production site showed relatively small differences. Mainstream producing areas were quoted at premiums of 30-120 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead price, ex-works. On the secondary lead side, smelters were reluctant to sell at low prices, and market quotations were limited. In some regions, secondary refined lead was quoted at premiums of 25-50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. Downstream enterprises purchased as needed, with some mainly purchasing via long-term contracts and others replenishing some spot cargoes. Overall market transactions were average. Inventory: As of March 26, LME lead inventory decreased by 50 mt, or 0.02%, to 283,100 mt. SMM social inventory of lead ingot across five regions dropped back slightly. Today's Lead Price Forecast: Supply side: Quotations from suppliers of primary lead were slightly firm, and due to reduced circulating cargoes, some were quoted at premiums. This week, inventory of deliverable primary lead brands decreased by 6,800 mt WoW, which is expected to provide some support for primary lead prices; most secondary lead smelters did not offer quotations, while some cargoes were quoted ex-works at premiums of around 50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. This week, the pace of work resumption at secondary lead smelters accelerated, with the operating rate rebounding 3.69% WoW, production increasing by 3,090 mt, and finished product inventories also accumulating on a weekly basis. Demand Side: Downstream procurement sentiment was mixed, with market participants waiting to see the new month's long-term contracts while purchasing as needed also coexisted, and overall market transactions were average. SMM expected lead prices to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term.