[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Minutes: Geopolitical Issues Remain Volatile, Lead Prices to More Closely Track Fundamentals] Last Friday, US President Trump confirmed that Iran had opened the Strait of Hormuz, declaring the strait situation resolved. However, over the weekend the situation reversed, with Iran firing again to force back oil tankers. Recently, China's lead-acid battery market has been in the off-season, and lead ingot inventory has risen, becoming a strong bearish factor for lead prices. In mid-to-late April...

In the spot market, the price center of lead shifted slightly upward this week (April 13-17, 2026). Downstream buyers mostly made just-in-time procurement on demand and restocked on dips, with weak purchase willingness at high prices. Overall transactions in the spot market eased slightly WoW. This week, mainstream transaction prices of primary lead in Henan maintained parity or a slight discount against SMM #1 lead. Traders offered at a discount of 180-130 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2605 contract. At the beginning of the week, smelters held back from selling at low prices, and spot orders were limited. In Hunan, prices gradually shifted from a discount to parity or a slight premium during the week, with some plants holding prices firm on shipments after their inventory was sold out. In Guangdong, suppliers maintained offers at a premium of 25-100 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead, with transactions supported by just-in-time procurement.

This week (April 10–16, 2026), the average operating rate of primary lead smelters in the three provinces was 63.42%, up 1.93 percentage points WoW. This week, smelters in Henan operated steadily with the operating rate unchanged from last week; production at smelters in Hunan declined slightly; a large smelter in Yunnan that had previously shut down for maintenance resumed production, lifting the regional operating rate; smelters in other regions maintained overall stable production.

SMM, April 16: The most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at 16,851 yuan/mt. Boosted by macro sentiment at the start of the session, lead prices fluctuated upward, touching a high of 16,930 yuan/mt. Subsequently, weighed down by weak downstream consumption, lead prices lacked upward momentum and pulled back, ultimately closing at 16,775 yuan/mt, marking a three-day winning streak with a gain of 110 yuan/mt, or 0.66%. Persistently sluggish downstream consumption, coupled with visible inventory increases driven by primary lead deliveries, caused lead prices to encounter resistance on the upside. This week, some secondary lead enterprises cut production due to raw material shortages, tightening supply somewhat and providing certain support for lead prices. Overall, lead prices are expected to continue to move sideways in the short term. Data source disclaimer: Data other than publicly available information is derived from publicly available information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,936.5/mt, fluctuated upward during the Asian session with a low of $1,935.5/mt, and continued to rise firmly into the European session, ultimately closing at $1,966.5/mt, up 1.65%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened higher with a gap at 16,750 yuan/mt, briefly touched a low of 16,745 yuan/mt before fluctuating upward to a high of 16,860 yuan/mt, and ultimately closed at 16,840 yuan/mt, up 1.05%. Macro front: On Wednesday, Trump said the war he launched with Israel was "nearing its end," and the White House was also optimistic about reaching a deal. Bessent said the US would no longer extend sanctions exemptions on Iranian and Russian oil. Foreign media: Iran proposed allowing free passage for ships on the Omani side of the Strait of Hormuz. China's Ministry of Commerce: Since the beginning of this year, trade-in sales of consumer goods exceeded 500 billion yuan. China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs: China and the US maintained communication on US President Trump's visit to China. The PBOC and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange: The overseas lending leverage ratio for wholly foreign-owned banks in China, Sino-foreign joint venture banks in China, and branches of foreign banks in China was raised from 0.5 to 1.5. : Yesterday, SHFE lead showed a fluctuating upward trend. Suppliers had slight divergences in shipments—some maintained discounts for shipments, while others quoted relatively firmly as delivery inventory pressure eased. Mainstream origin quotes were at -25 yuan/mt to +100 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead, ex-works. Secondary lead side, smelters concentrated on production cuts and suspensions, with regional supply limited. After lead prices rose, smelters showed slightly better shipment sentiment. Secondary refined lead was quoted at -25 yuan/mt to +25 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. Downstream enterprises had limited rigid demand, and some shifted to a wait-and-see attitude yesterday after purchasing on dips the previous day, leading to decreased trading activity in the spot market. Inventory: On April 15, LME lead inventory decreased by 875 mt to 275,975 mt. As of April 13, SMM five-region lead ingot social inventory edged up. Lead Price Forecast for Today: Supply and demand in the spot lead market were both tepid. Downstream battery producers had poor orders, and enthusiasm for lead ingot procurement was weak. Primary lead smelters maintained relatively stable production, but secondary lead enterprises saw declining operating rates due to loss pressure. In addition, overseas geopolitical issues persisted and remained volatile. If a ceasefire between the US and Iran is successfully reached, it is expected to have a positive impact on base metals; otherwise, lead prices are expected to continue consolidating. Data source statement: Data other than public information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,927/mt, fluctuated upward to a high of $1,941.5/mt during the Asian session; it first declined then rose during the European session, ultimately closing at $1,934.5/mt, up 0.34%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened high at 16,655 yuan/mt. After bulls reduced positions, SHFE lead moved sideways around the 16,620 yuan/mt level, hitting a low of 16,595 yuan/mt during the session, and ultimately closed at 16,640 yuan/mt, down 0.09%. On the macro front: On Tuesday, US President Trump stated that negotiations might resume in Pakistan in the next two days after talks broke down last weekend; Pakistani and Iranian officials also indicated that negotiations could restart, with the agenda including the critical Strait of Hormuz transit as well as Iran's nuclear activities and international sanctions. The US March PPI annual rate came in at 4%, below market expectations of 4.6%. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the US should "wait and see" before cutting interest rates, and that recent inflation would not become embedded in expectations. Tariffs could return to previous levels by early July. Russian media: Russia imposed temporary export restrictions on helium and was considering imposing excise taxes on imported steel. In Q1 2026, China's total goods trade import and export value reached 11.84 trillion yuan, exceeding 11 trillion yuan for the first time in the same period historically, up 15% YoY. : SHFE lead relatively rebounded after stopping its decline, but as delivery was imminent, some suppliers waited for delivery, and few warrant cargoes were quoted. For primary lead cargoes self-picked up from production site, suppliers quoted in line with the market, and discounts narrowed further compared to yesterday. Mainstream production areas were quoted at premiums of -30~+75 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead price, ex-works. Secondary lead side, more secondary lead enterprises in east China cut or halted production, tightening circulating supply in the market. Secondary refined lead was quoted at premiums of +0~+50 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. After lead prices stopped falling, downstream enterprises purchased as needed, with moderate purchasing enthusiasm. Moreover, as secondary lead was in short supply and priced high, rigid demand leaned more toward primary lead cargoes self-picked up from production site, and spot market transactions improved. Inventory: On April 14, LME lead inventory decreased by 475 mt to 276,850 mt; as of April 13, SMM lead ingot social inventory across five regions edged up slightly. Lead price forecast for today: Today, the SHFE lead 2604 contract entered delivery. Suppliers transferred and shipped to delivery warehouses, with some social warehouses seeing notable increases. Overall inventory has once again surpassed the 60,000 mt threshold. Recently, the lead-acid battery market entered the off-season for consumption, and downstream enterprise purchasing demand weakened. Meanwhile, due to losses, some medium-to-large secondary lead enterprises in east China successively commenced planned maintenance. Under expectations of declining supply and demand, upward pressure on lead prices persists in the short term. Data Source Statement: Data other than public information is SMM processed data based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.