I. Market Review The silver market rebounded slightly in the recent period. According to SMM data, from April 2 to 17, the average price of 1# silver (Ag99.99%) fluctuated upward from 18,230 yuan/kg to 19,483 yuan/kg, following an overall pattern of initial decline followed by recovery. In mid-April, as the US-Iran ceasefire agreement progressed, precious metal prices rebounded in the short term, buoyed by the improved macro atmosphere, with the SGE Ag(T+D) contract rising over 4% in a single day. Notably, despite the strong rebound in futures prices, spot prices struggled to catch up, and premiums continued to narrow to near parity. II. Macro Background The US-Iran ceasefire agreement dominated market sentiment. This week's hot topic centered on the progress of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement, with overall macro sentiment leaning positive. However, as the weekend approached, uncertainties emerged in the ceasefire negotiations, and geopolitical tensions saw no substantive easing. Trump stated that the Iran conflict was about to conclude and threatened to strike Iran's civilian infrastructure; meanwhile, he warned Powell to step down in a timely manner, hoping that his US Fed nominee Warsh would be confirmed soon, claiming that interest rates were expected to decline after his appointment. US Fed policy expectations grew more complex, capping gains. Although the probability of a US Fed interest rate cut rose slightly this week compared to early April, the market remained cautiously on the sidelines, limiting gains in precious metal prices. III. Spot Market Consumption remained weak, and inventory shifted from decline to increase. Despite the recovery in macro sentiment, spot consumption remained persistently weak. As suppliers fulfilled expectations of transferring inventory and shipping to delivery warehouses, social inventory of silver ingots increased notably. Since mid-April, despite rising silver prices, suppliers generally lowered premiums to sell off holdings. As the weekend approached, mainstream transaction prices for domestic silver ingots in the Shanghai area saw premiums against T+D fall to 0–10 yuan/kg. IV. Outlook Geopolitics: The temporary ceasefire agreement is set to expire on April 22. Whether it can be extended or a permanent agreement can be reached will have a significant impact on global market risk appetite. Supply-demand pattern: The short-term rally driven by capital flows lacked fundamental support. Since mid-April, ETF open interest ended its downward trend and the capital side improved slightly, but pessimistic expectations for the PV industry and ongoing silver substitution solutions continued to suppress downstream silver powder and silver paste procurement demand, while mandatory stockpiling needs of silver nitrate and silver powder/silver paste enterprises declined in April. Industrial demand entered the off-season, and if investment demand remained subdued, the spot oversupply situation would be difficult to change in the short term. Price Outlook: Silver prices are expected to move sideways within the current range, capped by technical resistance levels and weak spot demand on the upside, while supported by recovering macro sentiment on the downside. A breakout from the sideways pattern would require clearer macro signals for direction. Going forward, close attention should be paid to the progress of US-Iran ceasefire negotiations, US Fed policy developments, and changes in spot inventory and sentiment.

[Zinc Ingot Export Window Nearing Opening, Shanghai Spot Premiums Expected to Hold Firm Next Week]: The center of Shanghai spot premiums shifted higher this week, with the weekly average price up 10 yuan/mt WoW. As of this Friday, ordinary domestic brands were quoted at a discount of 60-40 yuan/mt against the 2605 contract, while the premium brand Shuangyan was quoted at a premium of 0-40 yuan/mt against the 2605 contract..

SMM April 17 News: Lead prices were weak in the first half of this week, with secondary refined lead quoted at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt, and smelters saw sluggish shipments. In the second half of the week, lead prices rose, and quotes pulled back to discounts of 50 yuan/mt to premiums of 25 yuan/mt, with shipment enthusiasm rebounding. Downstream sectors were in the consumption off-season, mainly restocking on dips and purchasing via long-term contracts. The tug-of-war between upstream and downstream intensified. Both supply and demand are expected to be weak next week, with premiums moving sideways. Affected by weak lead prices and high scrap battery costs, secondary lead smelting losses widened. As of April 17, large-scale enterprises posted profits/losses of -200 yuan/mt, while small and medium-sized enterprises posted -404 yuan/mt. Some producers plan to cut or halt production next week to control losses. Weak downstream demand is unlikely to improve, and the industry's loss-making landscape will be difficult to reverse in the short term.

SMM Nickel News, April 17: Macro and market news: (1) On April 17, the State Council Information Office held a press conference in the "Getting Started on the 15th Five-Year Plan" series, introducing the promotion of high-quality economic and social development during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. The NDRC stated it would focus on expanding effective domestic demand and formulate an implementation plan for the strategy to expand domestic demand from 2026 to 2030. (2) Trump said Lebanon and Israel agreed to a 10-day ceasefire; the Israeli PM agreed to the ceasefire and said troops would remain stationed in southern Lebanon; the Lebanese PM welcomed Trump's ceasefire announcement. Spot market: On April 17, SMM #1 refined nickel prices rose 750 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums: Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 2,350 yuan/mt, down 200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; domestic mainstream brand electrodeposited nickel premiums ranged from -700-600 yuan/mt. Futures market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2605 contract surged sharply in the morning session, touching 145,000 yuan/mt, and closed at 143,730 yuan/mt, up 1.54%. Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) officially confirmed the implementation of the revised nickel ore benchmark price (HPM) calculation formula starting April 15, 2026, which is expected to significantly raise the floor support for nickel prices, driving a sharp rally. In the short term, nickel prices are expected to hold up well on sentiment following the release of the new pricing formula. Going forward, attention should be paid to the actual cost increase after the implementation of Indonesia's new HPM formula.

According to Reuters, trade sources said that Indian banks had suspended orders for importing gold and silver from suppliers outside China, with large quantities of precious metals stuck at customs , as the government had yet to issue a formal order authorizing the import of these precious metals. As India is the world's second-largest gold consumer and the largest silver buyer, with nearly all of its demand relying on ex-China purchases, the country could face a supply deficit without new imports. Weak Indian demand could weigh on global gold and silver prices , while narrowing the country's trade deficit and supporting the rupee. The rupee has been one of Asia's worst-performing currencies so far this year. Authorities had taken several measures to ease pressure on the rupee, including recently urging refiners to limit their spot dollar purchases. The suspension of gold and silver import orders by Indian banks from overseas suppliers, as well as the backlog of large quantities of precious metals at customs due to the lack of a formal government authorization order, had not been previously reported. The Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT), under India's Ministry of Commerce and Industry, typically issues an order at the beginning of each fiscal year listing the banks authorized by the Reserve Bank of India to import gold and silver. The order previously issued in April 2025 was valid until the end of the last fiscal year (March 31), and banks were currently awaiting a new directive from the DGFT. The DGFT did not immediately respond to Reuters' request for comment. A bullion dealer at a private bank in Mumbai said that banks had expected the DGFT to issue the order in early April as in previous years, but no new announcement had been made so far, resulting in more than 5 mt of gold stuck and unable to clear customs . The dealer said the uncertainty over the timing of the DGFT order had led banks to suspend new import orders from overseas suppliers. The dealer requested anonymity as they were not authorized to speak to the media. Sources said that approximately 8 mt of imported silver was also stuck and unable to clear customs . Another bullion dealer said there was no point in placing new orders when previous shipments could not clear customs. According to data from the World Gold Council, India's gold demand fell to 710.9 mt in 2025, the lowest level in five years. Sources said that gold and silver inventory imported in previous months was being depleted, and the market was now relying on sales from exchange-traded funds, which were facing redemptions. Mehta Surendra, Secretary of the India Bullion and Jewellers Association, said: "Clear rules are needed to ensure imports resume." Mehta stated that without imports, a supply deficit would emerge, and premiums would rise after Akshaya Tritiya, India's second-largest gold-buying festival. A bullion dealer in Kolkata said that as the Iran conflict drove up prices of oil, natural gas, and fertilizers, India's import bill in April could rise, which might prompt the government to slow down gold and silver imports to control the trade deficit.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to next week, on the supply side, some delivery warrants have already begun to flow out during the day, exerting downward pressure on spot premiums. Market concerns over the concentrated release of warrants going forward persist, and suppliers have a strong willingness to sell, putting spot premiums for Shanghai copper under pressure. On the demand side, copper prices saw a slight correction, and downstream procurement was mainly driven by rigid demand, with insufficient willingness to chase higher prices. In addition, the intraday price spread between Shanghai and Guangdong spot premiums continued to rise to around 150 yuan/mt. The strong premiums in Guangdong may provide some support to Shanghai market sentiment, but it is difficult to reverse the overall weak supply-demand pattern in the short term. Overall, spot copper prices against the SHFE copper 2605 contract are expected to remain at current levels next Monday.