[SMM Tin Morning Brief: The Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Rose After a Slightly Higher Opening in the Night Session, with Downstream End-User Enterprises Generally Maintaining a Wait-and-See Stance]

In March 2026, China's ternary cathode material exports (NCM and NCA combined) reached 21,900 metric tons, representing a 103% MoM increase and a 163% YoY increase.

This week, the weekly operating rate of leading downstream aluminum processing enterprises in China was flat MoM at 64.7%. such as can stock, energy storage, and automobiles. However, aluminum prices fluctuated at highs, exports to the Middle East were impeded, and some end-use consumption recovered less than expected, limiting upside room for the operating rate. The industry exhibited the characteristics of “steady with progress and structural divergence.”

The second-life application battery cell market operated in a mediocre manner overall this week, with no significant improvement in market conditions. Cost side, lithium carbonate prices rose, nickel sulphate edged up in tandem, and cobalt sulphate pulled back slightly. Under divergent raw material trends, overall cost support remained relatively stable. Supply side, battery cell enterprises maintained a steady shipments pace, with no notable increase or decrease in market supply. Demand side, structural differentiation was significant: energy storage remained the core driver, with tight supply of mainstream models such as 314Ah and 280Ah, but the price uptrend had clearly slowed down; B-grade battery cells, constrained by higher procurement standards and compliance requirements, struggled to enter the mainstream market, with prices remaining stable. The small power market was significantly impacted by the "Interim Measures for the Recovery and Comprehensive Utilization of Waste Power Batteries from New Energy Vehicles" implemented on April 1. The new regulation explicitly prohibits the use of waste power batteries in e-bike and other sectors, creating a temporary gap in previously applicable scenarios. Currently, stable prices in the small power sector were not supported by demand but mainly because lithium, nickel, and cobalt salt prices remained at elevated levels, leaving enterprises limited room for price concessions, with strong wait-and-see sentiment prevailing in the market.

According to NBS data, in March, the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size grew 5.7% YoY in real terms. On a MoM basis, the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size rose 0.28% from the previous month in March. From January to March, the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size was up 6.1% YoY. Value Added of Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size Up 5.7% in March 2026 In March, the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size grew 5.7% YoY in real terms (all value added growth rates are real growth rates after deducting price factors). On a MoM basis, the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size rose 0.28% from the previous month in March. From January to March, the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size was up 6.1% YoY. By three major sectors, in March, the value added of the mining sector grew 5.7% YoY, manufacturing grew 6.0%, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas and water grew 3.5%. By economic type, in March, the value added of state-holding enterprises grew 5.9% YoY; joint-stock enterprises grew 6.2%, foreign-invested and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan-invested enterprises grew 3.7%; and private enterprises grew 4.0%. By industry, in March, 30 out of 41 major industrial sectors maintained YoY growth in value added. Among them, coal mining and washing grew 5.3%, oil and natural gas extraction grew 9.4%, agricultural and sideline food processing grew 8.0%, liquor, beverage and refined tea manufacturing grew 2.4%, textile industry grew 1.7%, chemical raw material and chemical product manufacturing grew 9.0%, non-metallic minerals product manufacturing declined 5.5%, ferrous metals smelting and rolling processing grew 1.7%, non-ferrous metals smelting and rolling processing remained flat YoY, general equipment manufacturing grew 6.3%, special equipment manufacturing grew 6.2%, automobile manufacturing grew 7.5%, railway, shipbuilding, aerospace and other transportation equipment manufacturing grew 13.3%, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing grew 5.4%, computer, communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing grew 12.5%, and electricity and heat production and supply grew 4.2%. By product, in March, 329 out of 626 products of industrial enterprises above designated size recorded YoY growth in production. Among them, steel products totaled 130.98 million mt, down 2.3% YoY; cement 123.1 million mt, down 21.0%; ten kinds of non-ferrous metals 7.07 million mt, up 2.2%; ethylene 3.64 million mt, up 6.8%; automobiles 3.067 million units, down 0.1%, of which NEVs 1.336 million units, up 1.2%; power generation 802.5 billion kWh, up 1.4%; crude oil processing volume 61.67 million mt, down 2.2%. In March, the product sales rate of industrial enterprises above designated size was 93.8%, up 0.7 percentage points YoY; the export delivery value of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 1,458 billion yuan, up 8.7% YoY in nominal terms.

[SMM Rare Earth News Flash] According to data released by CAAM, China's automobile production in March 2026 reached 2.917 million units, of which NEV production was 1.231 million units and internal combustion engine vehicles 1.686 million units. According to the SMM end-use demand model, NdFeB consumption from NEVs in March 2026 was 5,260.8 mt, and NdFeB consumption from internal combustion engine vehicles was 534.2 mt. Both NdFeB consumption from NEVs and internal combustion engine vehicles increased YoY and MoM.