Recently, China's tungsten prices have retreated from highs, with wolframite concentrates falling 16.18% over a period of more than one month. After lowering their long-term contract prices for the first half of April, multiple tungsten enterprises continued to cut long-term contract prices for the second half of April. However, in terms of the magnitude of this round of reductions, the long-term contract price cuts for the second half of April narrowed significantly compared to the first half, which to some extent helped market sentiment gradually stabilize. Currently, wait-and-see sentiment remains strong in the market, the tug-of-war between upstream and downstream continues — how will tungsten prices perform going forward? Multiple Tungsten Enterprises Continue to Cut Long-term Contract Prices Multiple tungsten enterprises lowered their long-term contract prices for the second half of April, as follows: A Jiangxi tungsten group released its long-term contract prices for the second half of April: the guidance price for national standard Grade-1 wolframite concentrates for the second half of April 2026 was 910,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis), down 46,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis) from the first half of April. Meanwhile, Chongyi Zhangyuan Tungsten Co., Ltd. also lowered its long-term contract procurement prices for the second half of April: 1 55% wolframite concentrates: 885,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis), down 45,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis) from the previous round; 2 55% scheelite concentrates: 884,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis), down 45,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis) from the previous round; 3 APT (national standard Grade-0): 1.35 million yuan/mt, down 90,000 yuan/mt from the previous round. Notably, in the first half of April pricing, Zhangyuan Tungsten's 55% wolframite concentrates and 55% scheelite concentrates had already been cut by 90,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis) each MoM. Wolframite Concentrates Fell Over 16% in Just Over a Month Since mid-to-late March, driven by profit-taking, downstream buyers' reluctance to purchase at high levels, and an overall adjustment in commodity markets, tungsten prices — which had repeatedly hit record highs — began to pull back. On April 20, wolframite concentrates (≥65%) were priced at 880,000–881,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis), with an average price of 880,500 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis), down 1.12% from the previous trading day. Compared with the historical high average tungsten price of 1,050,500 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis) on March 16, the average price of wolframite concentrates fell by 170,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis) over just over a month, a decline of 16.18%. Outlook As leading tungsten enterprises' long-term contract prices were finalized, China's tungsten market sentiment turned mild. Mainstream mines focused on long-term contract deliveries, with spot order prices fluctuating around long-term contract levels. APT smelter prices remained firm, and driven by continued ore price movements, APT industry margins showed a widening trend. Wait-and-see sentiment among downstream cemented carbide alloy enterprises has not fully dissipated, with enterprises mainly restocking on a just-needed basis. However, industry inventory has been gradually declining, and a wave of restocking is expected before the Labour Day holiday, which will drive a recovery in tungsten market trading volume. Meanwhile, the tight supply pattern of tungsten outside China remained unchanged. Cemented carbide plants in Japan and several other countries collectively raised their quotes, which was positive for the export and consumption of related products in China. In the short term, long-term contracts stabilized the tungsten market. As industry profit-taking positions were gradually cleared and downstream demand followed up, the tungsten market was expected to gradually stop falling and stabilize. Going forward, the focus should be on tracking the actual pre-holiday restocking progress of cemented carbide alloy enterprises. Recommended reading:

In Q1 2026, Vale of Brazil maintained strong production and sales momentum, with multiple core assets setting historical records and overall operational performance being both robust and groundbreaking. All three major business segments — iron ore, copper, and nickel — achieved comprehensive growth. Iron ore sales reached the highest Q1 level since 2018, copper production hit the best Q1 result since 2017, and nickel production was the strongest Q1 performance since 2020. I. Iron Ore Business: Accelerated Capacity Release with Growth in Both Production and Sales Iron ore production reached 69.7 million mt, up 3% YoY. The growth was primarily driven by record single-quarter output at the S11D and Brucutu mines, combined with incremental capacity release from the continued ramp-up of the Capanema project and the Vargem Grande 1 (VGR1) plant. Iron ore sales totaled 68.7 million mt, up 4% YoY, slightly outpacing production growth. II. Copper Business: Multi-Site Synergies Driving a New Quarterly High in Nearly 9 Years Copper production reached 102,300 mt, up 13% YoY. The Salobo Phase III expansion reached full production, achieving stable output at full capacity; the Sossego operating area completed an intelligent ore supply system upgrade, improving the overall mining and processing recovery rate by 2.3 percentage points; and the Voisey's Bay polymetallic mine's copper system operated continuously without failure for over 90 days, contributing stable incremental output. Q1 copper production was the highest Q1 figure since 2017, exceeding the 2022 peak by 7.6%, marking Vale's copper assets entering a mature phase of scaled and intelligent operations. III. Nickel Business: Smelting Breakthroughs Driving the Best Quarterly Performance in 4 Years Nickel production reached 49,300 mt, up 12% YoY, the highest Q1 level since 2020, highlighting the enhanced resilience of the vertically integrated nickel industry chain. The Onça Puma No. 2 furnace, commissioned in Q4 2025, achieved its first full-cycle full-capacity operation in Q1 2026; the Voisey's Bay underground mine maintained stable supply; and the Long Harbour nickel refinery set a new historical production record for the quarter.

[SMM Steel] Pakistan’s National Tariff Commission (NTC) has extended anti-dumping duties on continuous casting steel billets from China at 24.04% following a second sunset review. The measure will remain effective for five years from June 22, 2025, covering semi-finished steel products under multiple HS codes. Originally imposed in 2017 and reviewed in 2022, the duty aims to protect domestic producers, while exemptions apply for export-oriented production and foreign-funded projects.

SMM April 20: Metals Market: As of the daytime close, base metals on the domestic market mostly rose, with only SHFE aluminum and SHFE nickel declining. SHFE aluminum fell 1.49% and SHFE nickel fell 0.9%. The rest of the metals rose, with SHFE zinc up 0.69% and the others gaining less than 0.6%. The alumina front-month contract rose 0.43%, while the casting aluminum front-month contract fell 1.31%. Additionally, the lithium carbonate front-month contract rose 2.6%, the silicon metal front-month contract rose 1.05%, and the polysilicon front-month contract hit the daily limit again during intraday trading, closing at 42,955 yuan/mt with a 9% gain. The Europe containerized freight front-month contract rose 0.38% to 2,103.2. Ferrous metals all rose except stainless steel, which fell 0.47%. Hot-rolled coil, rebar, and iron ore all gained over 1% (hot-rolled coil 1.17%, rebar 1.24%, iron ore 1.16%). Coking coal and coke: coking coal rose 2.77% and coke rose 2.27%. Overseas market, as of 15:07, all metals fell except LME nickel, which led the gains with a 1.36% rise. The rest declined, with LME copper leading the losses at 0.63%. Precious metals, as of 15:07, COMEX gold fell 1.5% and COMEX silver fell 2.67%. In China, SHFE gold fell 0.08% and SHFE silver rose 1.34%. Additionally, the platinum front-month contract fell 0.18% and the palladium front-month contract fell 0.18%. Market Data as of 15:07 Today Macro Front China: [NEA: Total Electricity Consumption Reached 2,514.1 billion kWh, Up 5.2% YoY, January-March] The National Energy Administration released March electricity consumption data. From January to March, total electricity consumption reached 2,514.1 billion kWh, up 5.2% YoY. By sector, the primary industry consumed 33.6 billion kWh, up 7.1% YoY. The secondary industry consumed 1,598.7 billion kWh, up 4.7% YoY; of which, industrial electricity consumption was 1,583.6 billion kWh, up 4.9% YoY, and high-tech and equipment manufacturing consumed 274.6 billion kWh, up 8.6% YoY. The tertiary industry consumed 483.3 billion kWh, up 8.1% YoY; of which, EV charging and battery swapping services and internet data services consumed 37.6 billion and 22.9 billion kWh respectively, with growth rates of 53.8% and 44.0%. Urban and rural residential electricity consumption was 398.5 billion kWh, up 3.4% YoY. [April LPR Unchanged: Both 5-Year and 1-Year Rates Held Steady for the Eleventh Consecutive Month] The April LPR was announced: PBOC kept the 1-year and 5-year LPR at 3% and 3.5% respectively, unchanged for the eleventh consecutive month. [Foshan's Commercial Housing "Trade-in" Policy Is Here! First Batch Involves 22 Residential Projects] Recently, the Notice on Organizing the First Batch of Commercial Housing "Trade-in" Program by the Foshan Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau was officially released. This is not merely an encouraging document; it is a solution that systematically clears bottlenecks in housing replacement through model innovation and a policy package. It aims to drive the real estate market's transition from "one-sided transactions" to a "virtuous cycle between existing and new housing stock," achieving a win-win outcome for residents, enterprises, and the market. The innovation of Foshan's trade-in policy lies in bringing multiple real estate enterprises into the program: Foshan Anju, Chancheng Anju, Nanhai Youju, Shunde Chengtie, Gaoming Airport Construction, and Sanshui Anju serve as acquisition entities, while Foshan Chengfa, Foshan Urban Renewal, Foshan Lianzhi, Heyue Yaji, Shunkong Chengtou, Yongdeli Commerce, Sanshui Chanfa, and Miaohui Real Estate provide new housing sources. This model determines the value of existing homes through negotiation, establishes a "contract termination protection period" to avoid blindly pushing for lower prices, thereby completing the "sell old, buy new" closed loop and serving as a market stabilizer. (Foshan Release) US Dollar: As of 15:07, the US dollar index rose 0.03% to 98.26. According to a CITIC Securities research report, US Fed Governor Miran and three other economists recently co-published a working paper titled "A User's Guide to Restructuring the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet," whose structure bears similarities to the previously widely discussed "A User's Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System." The paper challenges the conventional view that the US Fed cannot significantly reduce its balance sheet, arguing that reserve demand is largely determined by the regulatory environment and that balance sheet reduction can be achieved without causing unexpected market stress by adjusting the regulatory framework, curbing precautionary motives, and addressing other sources of reserve demand. Using Monte Carlo simulations, the paper estimates the potential balance sheet reduction space at $1.2 trillion to $2.1 trillion. We believe the "balance sheet reduction guide" has a certain degree of real-world feasibility, but some options are somewhat idealistic. (Jin10 Data APP) According to the CME "Fed Watch": the probability of the US Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April was 0.5%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 99.5%. The probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 25 basis points by June was 4.5%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 95%, and the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points was 0.5%. (Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: Germany's March PPI month-on-month rate, Canada's March CPI month-on-month rate, and other data were to be released today. Also worth noting: German Chancellor Merz and European Central Bank President Lagarde delivered speeches; Trump said a US delegation would arrive in Islamabad on the evening of the 20th for negotiations, while Iran denied reports of a second round of talks being held in Islamabad. Crude oil: As of 15:07, oil prices in both markets surged, with WTI up 6.42% and Brent up 5.9%. Iran had once again closed the Strait of Hormuz, driving oil prices sharply higher. On the 19th local time, an Iraqi oil ministry official said the closure of the Strait of Hormuz would block the export of nearly 4 million barrels of Iraqi crude oil over the next three days. The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy issued a statement on the 18th saying that, due to the US violating ceasefire commitments and failing to lift the naval blockade on Iranian ports and vessels, the Strait of Hormuz would be blocked starting that evening. (CCTV News) Gary Pedersen, head of trading house Gunvor, warned that the oil market was facing more turbulence as Middle East tensions collided with seasonal slowdown in crude oil demand, increasing the likelihood of further sharp and unpredictable fluctuations in crude oil prices. (Jin10 Data) The International Energy Agency forecast that global crude oil demand would decline by 1.5 million barrels per day in Q2, the largest drop since the COVID-19 pandemic. OPEC's forecast was relatively mild, projecting a daily decline of 500,000 barrels. (Jin10 Data) A CICC research report noted that as the Iran situation entered its 7th week, the situation saw a further turning point. Although the first round of peace talks "collapsed," both the US and Iran "announced" the reopening of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, which still largely boosted optimistic sentiment in the market, despite subsequent reversals. This was largely in line with our base case assumption: while short-term reversals remain possible, a complete loss of control over the medium term is not the base case scenario, as Trump still has midterm elections to consider, and a comprehensive and uncontrollable escalation serves neither side's interests. Under this scenario, the Brent crude oil price center would gradually pull back to around $80 in Q2 and Q3, and the US Fed could still cut interest rates. (Jin10 Data APP) SMM Daily Review ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

【SMM Steel】Abu Dhabi's Metal Park will launch a new cut-and-bend rebar facility in Q2 2026, adding 25,000-30,000 t/m of capacity (~10-12% of UAE monthly usage). The project supports large infrastructure/energy projects by providing precision-processed steel. Integrating storage/fabrication reduces on-site congestion. The platform uses a pay-as-you-go model, allowing scale without large upfront capital. Commissioning is underway; full ops expected within six months.

DCE iron ore futures trended stronger today. The most-traded contract I2609 ultimately closed at 786.5 yuan/mt, up 1.16% from the previous trading session. Spot prices rose 4-8 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Traders' offers were moderate, and steel mills purchased mainly based on rigid demand with few inquiries; overall spot transactions appeared somewhat mediocre. Fundamentals side, an SMM survey showed that global iron ore shipments totaled 32.27 million mt last week, down 1.44 million mt (4.3%) WoW. Meanwhile, total iron ore arrivals at Chinese ports reached 21.52 million mt, down sharply by 5.61 million mt WoW, a decline of 20%. The decrease in shipments was mainly driven by Brazilian ore, which was affected by the traditional rainy season. News side, the Strait of Hormuz in the Middle East once again faced the threat of blockade, and US-Iran negotiations had yet to make progress. Energy prices and market sentiment continued to ferment, providing strong floor support for ore prices. Currently, the supply side may face short-term contraction. Combined with near-term demand and sentiment, iron ore prices are likely to trend on the stronger side in the short term.