[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Fluctuated Upward, Spot Stainless Steel Trading Sluggish Ahead of Qingming Festival SMM News on April 3: SS futures showed an upward fluctuation trend. SHFE nickel drove SS futures to stop falling and strengthen, closing at 14,235 yuan/mt as of the midday close. Spot market, although SS futures stopped falling and rebounded, the overall gains were limited, providing no obvious boost to the spot market; coupled with the approaching Qingming Festival holiday, overall market trading sentiment was sluggish, and traders' quotes were largely stable. The most-traded SS futures contract stopped falling and strengthened. At 10:15 a.m., SS2605 was quoted at 14,150 yuan/mt, up 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the range of 270-470 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi was unchanged; for cold-rolled burr-edge 304/2B coils, the average price in Wuxi was unchanged, and the average price in Foshan was largely stable; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in Wuxi were unchanged; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils, Wuxi quotes were unchanged; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan were largely stable. The stainless steel market is currently in the traditional peak consumption season of "Golden March and Silver April," and the fundamental downstream demand improved compared with the previous period. End-user procurement continued at a pace based on rigid demand, and overall trading volume was sufficient to support the market's basic vitality. However, affected by macro news disruptions and fluctuations in futures, downstream end-user clients still maintained a wait-and-see sentiment, showing no willingness to stockpile, and transactions fluctuated with changes in the news flow. Futures, the Iran geopolitical conflict is difficult to resolve in the short term, and uncertainty in macro news continues to cause disruptions...

India will engage with Argentina, Indonesia, and Oman next month to secure supplies of critical steelmaking raw materials. Discussions will occur during a major international steel summit in India. The focus includes coking coal, iron ore, lithium, and ferronickel. Indonesia, possessing the world's largest nickel reserves, is targeted as a key supplier of ferronickel for stainless steel. Meanwhile, Oman provides iron ore, and Argentina is a target for lithium and other critical minerals to support state-run NMDC Limited. This initiative aligns with India's strategy to ensure steady raw material supplies to scale up domestic steel production and advance its clean energy transition.

Wuzhou Yongda Stainless Steel Project secured 2.55 million yuan in central government funding. Meanwhile, Guangdong Zhongqing Environmental Protection received approval for its 600,000-ton/year stainless steel scrap recycling project, which includes sorting and baling production lines. On the raw materials front, Indonesian ferronickel has successfully arrived at Jiangsu ports and entered warehouses, ensuring a steady supply for the domestic market.

Nickel Ore " RKAB Approval Delays and Policy Shifts Expected to Drive Nickel Ore Prices Higher" Indonesian domestic nickel ore prices have risen significantly increase this week. For the first half of March, the Indonesian Nickel Ore Benchmark Price (HPM) was set at $17.329/dmt, an increase of 1.32%. However, according to SMM data, average premiums has increased for 1.4%, 1.5%, and 1.6% grade laterite nickel ore were reported at $36, $40, and $40.5/wmt, respectively, with 1.6% grade reaching a delivered price of $67.6–$74.6/wmt. This strengthening of premiums reflects both the release of restocking demand from smelters and pessimistic expectations regarding RKAB quota reductions. Simultaneously, the delivery price for 1.2% grade limonite has edged up to $25–$27/wmt. Pyrometallurgical Ore: From a supply and demand perspective, Sulawesi is transitioning into the dry season; Konawe has reached optimal production levels, while Morowali is slightly experiencing thunderstorms in this week. However, Halmahera's region is slightly stable. Currently, The market is facing a clear trend of declining ore grades. While some NPI smelters have begun accepting grades of 1.45% or lower, the supply of high-grade saprolite remains tight. As of mid-March, the ESDM has approved approximately 100 million tons of RKAB quotas. The remaining 160 to 170 million tons are expected to be processed by the end of March. However, due to the Eid al-Fitr (Lebaran) holidays (March 18–24), approval progress is expected to lag, exacerbating short-term supply tightness. Faced with resource uncertainty, some smelters have increased trade bonuses to secure raw materials. Transactions for low-grade saprolite are emerging at fixed prices lower than high-grade ores. Conversely, Limonite prices remain low due to a tailings dam landslide at a major MHP project, which has forced production lines to operate at low loads, hindering demand recovery. However, Limonite prices are expected to eventually follow Saprolite upward due to new project stockpiling and external island demand. Hydrometallurgical Ore Hydrometallurgical ore is relatively sufficient, a tailings dam landslide at an MHP project in a certain industrial park has forced related production lines to operate at low loads, leading to a temporary weakness in demand. Because miners currently secure higher profit margins from saprolite, they are less inclined to produce and sell limonite. To counter this reluctance, and to navigate ongoing RKAB approval uncertainties, fulfill the stockpiling needs of newly commissioned projects, and meet rising demand from outer islands, smelters have been compelled to raise limonite bids to incentivize miners to release their lower-grade ore. Consequently, hydrometallurgical ore prices are projected to follow the upward trajectory of pyrometallurgical ore and remain at elevated levels." On the policy front, although rumors regarding the implementation and delayed release of the new tax policy persist, the specific execution details remain under internal review by relevant ministries. While operational details for specific products like NPI and MHP still await final inter-ministerial confirmation, current policy winds suggest that the era of duty-free exports for Indonesian intermediate nickel products may soon be coming to an end. Looking ahead, the continuous tightening of Indonesian policies is expected to open up further upside potential for nickel ore prices and exert a profound impact on the cost structure of the global nickel supply chain. Market Outlook: Due to the overall delay in RKAB approvals, upcoming nickel export tax/windfall tax policy, probable nickel benchmark price changes, as well as miners are unable to produce with their "old quota" in April, nickel ore prices in next month are expected to remain resilient with a strong "easy to rise, hard to fall" trend. Nickel Pig Iron "High-Grade NPI Under Short-Term Pressure Amid Upstream-Downstream Tug-of-War " The average price of SMM 10-12% NPI average price dropped by RMB 6.7 per nickel unit week-on-week to RMB 1083.5 per nickel unit (ex-works, tax included), while the Indonesia NPI FOB index decreased by USD 1.38 USD per nickel unit to an average of USD 136.9 per nickel unit. Overall, the high-grade NPI market operated steadily. After transaction centers stabilized, the market entered a tug-of-war between upstream and downstream participants, leaving prices under short-term pressure. On the supply side, domestic nickel ore news has seen continuous disruptions. Upstream quotes were initially firm due to cost support; however, the market supply of scrap steel has increased significantly. Under the dual suppression of sluggish end-user demand and the economic advantage of scrap steel, upstream quotes for high-grade NPI have gradually weakened. In the stainless steel spot market, absolute social inventory levels remain high. Steel mills are maintaining high production schedules, leading to significant shipping pressure. Although there is some support on the cost side, the mills face considerable cost pressure themselves, and the economic advantage of stainless steel scrap has become prominent. Consequently, their acceptance of high-priced ferronickel is low, and their procurement attitude remains cautious. Stainless steel prices are expected to maintain a weak but stable trend. In summary, NPI prices will remain in an upstream-downstream tug-of-war in the short term, with upside price pressure driven by competition from scrap steel and the limited purchasing willingness of stainless steel mills.

PT Ceria Nugraha Indotama, an Indonesian nickel producer, plans to expand its ferronickel production capacity despite forecasts of a global nickel oversupply in the coming years. The company recently launched its Rectangular Rotary Kiln Electric Furnace in April, capable of producing 63,200 metric tonnes of ferronickel annually. An additional phase of production, requiring about $200 million in investment, is under consideration, with construction potentially starting later this year pending successful funding from financial institutions, according to Corporate Secretary Imelda Kiagoes at a Shanghai Metals Markets conference. While industry experts expect a prolonged surplus in the nickel market due to increased supply and slower demand growth, particularly in stainless steel and battery sectors, Kiagoes noted that Ceria’s ferronickel—containing 22% nickel—still sees demand in Europe and the U.S.

This week, Indonesian nickel ore prices have remained stable. NPI prices showed a slight upward trend during this week