Overview:Today, SMM's 10:00 am price for the Shanghai Gold Exchange Ag (T+D) was 15,450 yuan/kg, with premiums quoted from parity to +10 yuan/kg against TD. The weighted average price was 2.53 yuan/kg, and overall premiums changed relatively little from yesterday. On the macro front, the latest data showed the probability of a 25 bp rate hike at the September FOMC meeting rose to 92.4%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged was only 7.6%. After August CPI slightly exceeded expectations, the market has largely priced in this hike, and funds have begun to trade the upcoming dot plot and Powell's remarks, watching for any signal of a second hike this year. Overnight, long-end US Treasury yields continued to fluctuate at highs, and stronger oil prices further increased tail risks to inflation. In the short term, high rate expectations continued to weigh on silver valuations, but geopolitical risks and physical demand for precious metals provided downside support. Current bearish factors have been largely priced in by the market ahead of time, and silver is likely to move sideways in the short term, with trading focus awaiting guidance from this week's FOMC decision. In the spot market, the spot-futures price spread between SHFE and Shanghai Gold Exchange T+D held at 25-30 yuan/kg. Early morning quotes in Shanghai were concentrated at a discount of 25-20 yuan/kg against the most-traded SHFE 2610 contract. Overall quoted price spreads were relatively small, downstream inquiries were moderate, and purchases were cautious, mainly based on negotiated prices as needed, with transactions skewed toward the lower end of quotes. Overall, the market remained cautious and wait-and-see ahead of the FOMC meeting, with sluggish trading. Today, market premiums against the most-traded SHFE 2610 contract were quoted at a discount of 30 to 20 yuan/kg, with transactions concentrated in the Shanghai Gold Exchange Ag (T+D) from parity to a slight premium range.